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  • The Nyquist Trade Keeps the Wild's Recycling Plan Going


    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    The boys are back in town
    The boys are back in town
    The boys are back in town
    The boys are back in town

    Guess who just got back this weekend? Gustav Nyquist, who was part of the Minnesota Wild's trade deadline machinations in the 2022-23 season. It's hard to argue that Nyquist wasn't worth the fifth-round pick the Wild surrendered for him back then, even if he only played nine games. Two goals and nine points is more production than Minnesota's gotten out of 14 of their 18 fifth-rounders from 2000 to 2020, and four of those points came in six playoff games.

    You can't say that Minnesota doesn't need some offensive punch. Since Kirill Kaprizov went down with an injury before Christmas, the Wild are 28th in the NHL in goals per hour at 5-on-5 (2.01). It's also true that Minnesota doesn't have too much flexibility. It sent Marat Khusnutdinov and Liam Öhgren to the AHL to accommodate Nyquist's $1.6 million cap hit after the Nashville Predators ate 50% of his salary.

    The Wild operate with a higher degree of difficulty than 31 teams in the NHL, and trading their first-round pick for David Jiricek gives them less draft capital to offer other teams. That's all understandable. Nyquist was available, he could fit into the Wild's cap picture, and there was familiarity. It's not hard to see why the trade got made.

    Still, the move registers as uninspiring, certainly in the greater context of the Wild's team-building. 

    We know that Bill Guerin is loyal to "his guys." If you have success in a Wild uniform and have a reputation as being good in the locker room, Guerin moves heaven and earth to keep you around. Sometimes, it works well -- look at Marcus Foligno and Mats Zuccarello having strong seasons -- and sometimes, it doesn't, with Ryan Hartman on the suspended list.

    It's not unusual for a GM to have a core of veteran players they want to keep around. What's more curious is that Guerin's loyalty seems to extend to a player even after they leave the organization.

    Nyquist is now the second player that Guerin has traded for in two separate deals. The first was Marcus Johansson -- who Guerin acquired in the Eric Staal deal before the 2021 season, then again at the same 2022-23 trade deadline where he obtained Nyquist. Johansson flopped in his first go-round in Minnesota, with just six goals and 14 points in 36 games, while not being able to stick at center like the team had hoped.

    Still, there was something Guerin and Dean Evason liked in Johansson, and they traded for him again. That move paid early dividends, with Johansson amassing six goals and 18 points in 20 games after the trade deadline, then chipping in two goals in his six playoff games.

    After that, Guerin doubled down on his trade deadline find, inking him to a two-year, $4 million deal to solidify his top-nine during the worst of his salary cap woes. Since then, Johansson has logged only 16 goals and 49 points in 129 games, necessitating a trade for someone like Nyquist.

    Johansson hasn't established a high bar to clear offensively this season. He's fourth among Wild forwards in 5-on-5 ice time, yet is tied with Yakov Trenin for ninth in goals (four) and eighth in points (13). It's not hard to think that someone -- heck, almost anyone -- could step into a top-nine role and be an instant improvement.

    Sadly, there's been little indication that Nyquist is prepared to do that, at least this year. At 5-on-5, Nyquist lags behind Johansson in almost every relevant stat.

    5-on-5 Offense, 2024-25

    Johansson: 0.33 Goals/60; 1.08 Points/60; 5.65 Shots/60
    Nyquist: 0.24 Goals/60; 0.87 Points/60; 3.33 Shots/60

    You can't blame Nyquist's role in Nashville, either. He wasn't buried on the depth chart; he was playing alongside the Predators' biggest stars. His top three forward partners are Ryan O'Reilly (60.8% of his 5-on-5 ice time), Filip Forsberg (34.5%), and Steven Stamkos (17.7%). Heck, you can argue that Nyquist had better assignments than Johansson! MoJo/JoJo has skated with Ryan Hartman for 40.1% of his 5-on-5 minutes, 36.9% with Joel Eriksson Ek, and 36.5% with Matt Boldy

    image.png

    Again, Nyquist was cheap and available, that's understandable. The Wild can have the flexibility to acquire someone else if they don't foresee Eriksson Ek and/or Kaprizov returning before the playoffs. Still, why spend any draft capital getting someone who is 35 years old and isn't much of an upgrade, if any, over what's already in-house?

    How can you look at Guerin's history and conclude anything else but that Nyquist has been here before? There's nothing wrong with recycling someone in itself. If a player was a good fit before and is still productive, then sure, go for it.

    The problem is that neither of the players Guerin recycled fit that criterion. Johansson wasn't productive in his first stint in Minnesota, and falling for a short-term production boost was unquestionably a mistake. Meanwhile, Nyquist's production seems to be bottoming out at 35, an age at which forwards can expect steep declines.

    It shows much less imagination than the Wild have been capable of this season. Trading a first-round pick to land a top, post-hype prospect like Jiricek was a strong, creative move with long-term upside. What's the upside in Nyquist?

    It's repeating the short-term production boost the Wild got back in those nine games during the 2022-23 season. It's not nothing, but also... did we forget the fate of the 2022-23 team? Their season ended in the first round, with Minnesota blowing a 1-0 series lead to lose in six games to the Dallas Stars. 

    Pick whatever trade deadline acquisition you want to throw out in your wildest dreams -- Mikko Rantanen isn't going to guarantee Minnesota a playoff series win, especially not with their limitations. The goal is reasonable: Give the team a puncher's chance at breaking a playoff series drought threatening to reach the decade mark.

    Still, unless Nyquist's arrival precedes something that moves the needle more, it's hard to get excited about re-creating a team that no one was surprised to see flame out in the first round.

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    20 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Is Seth Jones really good or just highly paid?

    I was wondering the same.  He is 30 and signed for 5 more seasons after this year.  He plays tons of minutes, but he is a minus 133 player in his career.  Granted, it has been with some bad teams so will be interesting to see how he does on a good team when he is not the top D.  Probably a pretty good second line D-Man though which is what they needed.  

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    26 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Is Seth Jones really good or just highly paid?

    Florida gave up a strong young goalie because because they are in win now mode.

    They weren't making deals like this when Ekblad and Barkov were 23 years old because they understood their best window for contention was a few years away at that time. The Wild are good, but they don't have the optimal cap situation to compete for a title this season. Things could be different in a year or 2.

    Not every situation can be compared using the same model, nor will success be guaranteed if we follow the most successful model out there. 

    Kaprizov is the best player in NHL. To have zero PO round victories after 5 years is plain horrible. 

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    23 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Kaprizov is the best player in NHL. To have zero PO round victories after 5 years is plain horrible. 

    That's certainly debatable. Outside of Wild fans, I'm not sure anyone is saying that Kaprizov is the #1 player in the world. MacKinnon would be in contention and he wasn't part of a team that advanced in the playoffs over his first 5 seasons. The Wild even knocked them out one of those years.

    Also, McDavid hasn't had a season below a 100 point pace since he was a teenager. He's only eclipsed 150 points once, but he's played above a 120 point pace per 82 games in each of the last 6 seasons prior to this one.

    Kaprizov is in year 5, so we also don't know yet that he will not have advanced in the postseason within his first 5 seasons until round 2 begins in 2025.

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    9 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    That's certainly debatable. Outside of Wild fans, I'm not sure anyone is saying that Kaprizov is the #1 player in the world. MacKinnon would be in contention and he wasn't part of a team that advanced in the playoffs over his first 5 seasons. The Wild even knocked them out one of those years.

    Also, McDavid hasn't had a season below a 100 point pace since he was a teenager. He's only eclipsed 150 points once, but he's played above a 120 point pace per 82 games in each of the last 6 seasons prior to this one.

    Kaprizov is in year 5, so we also don't know yet that he will not have advanced in the postseason within his first 5 seasons until round 2 begins in 2025.

    MacKinnon played with Ranty and has enjoyed playing with Makar, Nichushkin, Toews, Landy, Kadri, etc. and McDavid played with Draisaitl. None on the wild are remotely close to Ranty or Draisaitl. And it does help when superstars play with one another. This year, Kap was THE front runner for MVP. Without Draisaitl and Ranty on his side. On top of that he was playing better all around game then the other two. So to me he is the best player.

    All three are amazing, but sorry Kap does not have/had the same type of a supporting cast as the other two. 

    and again - to draw out his timeline comparable to other players is good but it fails to take in consideration the reality. we do not have 10 years to show kaprizov what type of team we might be building. if he is not happy after this year - he won't sign this july and he is gone. and i bet he won't be happy to yet again bail out of the first round (hopefully in one piece as oppose to other seasons) that's the reality.

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    Necas played like a world beater for a month and he fell off too.  Streakiness happens.  I don't put much stock in Kap's early run as a full season's worth.  We know he is great, but best forward or best player is a stretch.

    Is he the best player the Wild has had?  Sure, but he needs 1-2 more seasons like that before I even have him anywhere in the conversation.

     

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    47 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Necas played like a world beater for a month and he fell off too.  Streakiness happens.  I don't put much stock in Kap's early run as a full season's worth.  We know he is great, but best forward or best player is a stretch.

    Is he the best player the Wild has had?  Sure, but he needs 1-2 more seasons like that before I even have him anywhere in the conversation.

     

    This is the dumbest take to date. It may actually trump all of Freddy's comments. To use Necas for Kap's comparison and to suggest streakiness for Kap being on top......and to say that you don't put too much stock in Kap's early run? da fuck.....whatever....but it explains your near indifference to him as a player. 1-2 more season to make some delusional wild fan happy. HAHAHA

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    Sorry that when living in a world with MacKinnon, McDavid, and Draisatl in it, you'd put Kap over it.  I said, "best player in Wild history" like that wasn't enough for you.

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    2 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Sorry that when living in a world with MacKinnon, McDavid, and Draisatl in it, you'd put Kap over it.  I said, "best player in Wild history" like that wasn't enough for you.

    are we sure he is better than charlie coyle and wes walz? let's just play it safe and wait another 20 years. 

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    2 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

    They have $70 million in cap space right now at the TD. Kinda numbs my mind. 

       Kaprizov to Columbus for young,grit, hands, feet and shot

     

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    13 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    This is the dumbest take to date. It may actually trump all of Freddy's comments. To use Necas for Kap's comparison and to suggest streakiness for Kap being on top......and to say that you don't put too much stock in Kap's early run? da fuck.....whatever....but it explains your near indifference to him as a player. 1-2 more season to make some delusional wild fan happy. HAHAHA

    I think two of the saddest things about Kap's injury this year is what might have been with the team, and what might have been for Kap.  

    Healthy all year, would we be fighting still with Winnipeg for the division lead?  At worst, would we be sitting at the two seed with a home series in the playoffs?

    On an individual level, Kap was no doubt having his best year.  He usually struggled with slower starts, but not this year.  Through his 34 games before being injured, he was on pace for 50 goals and 70 assists which would have set career highs in both goals and assists and he probably wins the Hart Trophy.  

    For me, McDavid is still the best player in the league and going into this season I would have put McKinnon and Draisaitl behind him with Kap and others being in the conversation behind them.  If Kap kept playing like he was for a full season he would have moved, not just in our eyes, but others outside of Minnesota into the conversation of second-best player behind McDavid (I personally think he belongs there anyway).  If he put another year together similar or better next year, now he is in McDavid territory.  I think that is what Strife was saying.  He wasn't saying Kap isn't great, but a year or two of the numbers he was putting up to start the year and then yes, he would be in the best player in the world conversation.  That to me is what sucks the most about him getting hurt.  Let's just hope he returns to that form for the playoffs and leads us all the way to the Cup, then we can put him in the conversation with McDavid a year early.

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    7 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    I think two of the saddest things about Kap's injury this year is what might have been with the team, and what might have been for Kap.  

    Healthy all year, would we be fighting still with Winnipeg for the division lead?  At worst, would we be sitting at the two seed with a home series in the playoffs?

    On an individual level, Kap was no doubt having his best year.  He usually struggled with slower starts, but not this year.  Through his 34 games before being injured, he was on pace for 50 goals and 70 assists which would have set career highs in both goals and assists and he probably wins the Hart Trophy.  

    For me, McDavid is still the best player in the league and going into this season I would have put McKinnon and Draisaitl behind him with Kap and others being in the conversation behind them.  If Kap kept playing like he was for a full season he would have moved, not just in our eyes, but others outside of Minnesota into the conversation of second-best player behind McDavid (I personally think he belongs there anyway).  If he put another year together similar or better next year, now he is in McDavid territory.  I think that is what Strife was saying.  He wasn't saying Kap isn't great, but a year or two of the numbers he was putting up to start the year and then yes, he would be in the best player in the world conversation.  That to me is what sucks the most about him getting hurt.  Let's just hope he returns to that form for the playoffs and leads us all the way to the Cup, then we can put him in the conversation with McDavid a year early.

    Regardless of his injury, Kap was on almost all MVP ballots, while dragging Wild team to the top WITHOUT Makar and Draisaitl

    anyone that equates Kap to Fucking Necas, or says - Kap hasn’t done enough, is a fool

    Exactly why Kap will walk. There are smarter fans that will appreciate his true worth unlike here in minny

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    19 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

    That is a pretty tough ask of two 23-year-old players.  Plus, there are only 35 PPG players in the entire league right now, and only 20 averaging more than 1.1, in other words each team averages about 1 PPG player and ours is Kap.  Boldy is 56th and Rossi is 62nd which is pretty good.  Boldy did not show up on the score sheet against Boston but did have 8 shots on goal.

    The last 22 games, Boldy has 21 points. and Rossi 18.  If I go back 24 games for Rossi, he has 22 points in those games.  Not far off of PPG for either of them.

    The thing is that it's next man up, and next man up needs to perform. The performance isn't an overall deal either. It needs consistency. For instance, you can't score 3 points one night and then be held off the scoresheet the following 3 games. I think Rossi has done a better job at the consistency part, but they both have been held off the scoresheet a lot. 

    This is why in the 2nd paragraph, I'm not buying the last 22 games' performances. There's a lot of 0s out there in games against hard competition. That can't happen. The last time we were in this situation, Boldy rose to the occasion and willed us into the playoffs. He was 21 at the time. He is not doing that this time around. We need his and Rossi's points in every game. 

    Yes, it's a tough ask, but it's also a necessary ask. If you want to be the superstar, when opportunity arrives, you simply can't suddenly head into a slump. Boldy is taken care of for the next several years. However, Rossi isn't. When it comes down to it, does he give the Wild a consistent PPG or is it more like a 0,0,3,0,1,0,0,2? It looks like a PPG, but in this case we need it every night. The going over PPG numbers is when you get multipoint nights. You don't stop scoring per night, you just keep getting 1s each night.

    And, to be fair, there are some other guys on the team who need to start putting in those 1s too. 

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    43 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

     

    Regardless of his injury, Kap was on almost all MVP ballots, while dragging Wild team to the top WITHOUT Makar and Draisaitl

    anyone that equates Kap to Fucking Necas, or says - Kap hasn’t done enough, is a fool

    Exactly why Kap will walk. There are smarter fans that will appreciate his true worth unlike here in minny

    I agree that he was, which is why I said it sucked that he got hurt. I would have loved to see it for him.  

    Maybe you are referring to someone else, but I did say he is in the conversation to me as being the second-best player in the world.  I am not sure how that is not appreciating his full value.  Putting him behind McDavid, who might go down as the second or third best player ever is not a slight to Kap.  Saying if he puts together a year or two like he started puts him in the conversation with McDavid I thought was pretty high praise.

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    48 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Exactly why Kap will walk. There are smarter fans that will appreciate his true worth unlike here in minny

    I've probably missed a whole lot of this conversation, but why would you think that Kap isn't appreciated in MN? I think everyone here appreciates the player, and from what I can see in the arenas, he is cheered wildly (yes, pun intended). 

    But appreciating Kaprizov does not mean having to go players who can play with him and ignoring or trading away your best prospects/young guys. All championship teams have a certain amount of value players that are on ELCs or bridge deals. 

    If I'm looking at Guerin's plan, and I think there is a plan, it's to stack a whole bunch of picks from the '20-22 drafts together to make the core of the team. Players from other drafts, specifically 2015 will get to lead the team. 

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    7 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    I agree that he was, which is why I said it sucked that he got hurt. I would have loved to see it for him.  

    Maybe you are referring to someone else, but I did say he is in the conversation to me as being the second-best player in the world.  I am not sure how that is not appreciating his full value.  Putting him behind McDavid, who might go down as the second or third best player ever is not a slight to Kap.  Saying if he puts together a year or two like he started puts him in the conversation with McDavid I thought was pretty high praise.

    No disagreement here

    My comment was to address earlier post by citi 

     

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    7 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I've probably missed a whole lot of this conversation, but why would you think that Kap isn't appreciated in MN? I think everyone here appreciates the player, and from what I can see in the arenas, he is cheered wildly (yes, pun intended). 

    But appreciating Kaprizov does not mean having to go players who can play with him and ignoring or trading away your best prospects/young guys. All championship teams have a certain amount of value players that are on ELCs or bridge deals. 

    If I'm looking at Guerin's plan, and I think there is a plan, it's to stack a whole bunch of picks from the '20-22 drafts together to make the core of the team. Players from other drafts, specifically 2015 will get to lead the team. 

    Well seems like people feel that Kap just rode a hot streak, and is the same type of player as Necas and needs to show more consistency to Mn fans before they consider him anything but good. That feels like knowing his true worth……
    HAHA

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    1 minute ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Well seems like people feel that Kap just rode a hot streak, and is the same type of player as Necas and needs to show more consistency to Mn fans before they consider him anything but good. That feels like knowing his true worth……
    HAHA

    I've watched Necas for years. He's going to fit in really well with the Avs since both MacKinnon and Makar have speed to burn. Necas was the chief puck mover on the Carolina PP to enter the zone. Carolina is now having trouble with that aspect. Necas didn't put up great numbers in Carolina, mainly due to the structure and nobody else was fast enough to keep up with him. 

    Now, I'd love to add Necas to my team, he's not going to be very gritty, but this would be to help Kaprizov, not to replace him. He's got another year left until his UFA season, but with MacKinnon and Makar, I think he'll resign there. But, let's be absolutely clear, Necas is a terrific player, but not even close to the Kaprizov tier!

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    2 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I've watched Necas for years. He's going to fit in really well with the Avs since both MacKinnon and Makar have speed to burn. Necas was the chief puck mover on the Carolina PP to enter the zone. Carolina is now having trouble with that aspect. Necas didn't put up great numbers in Carolina, mainly due to the structure and nobody else was fast enough to keep up with him. 

    Now, I'd love to add Necas to my team, he's not going to be very gritty, but this would be to help Kaprizov, not to replace him. He's got another year left until his UFA season, but with MacKinnon and Makar, I think he'll resign there. But, let's be absolutely clear, Necas is a terrific player, but not even close to the Kaprizov tier!

    EXACTLY 

    But, let's be absolutely clear, Necas is a terrific player, but not even close to the Kaprizov tier!

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    17 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    No disagreement here

    My comment was to address earlier post by citi 

     

    Got it.  Let's just have Kap lead us to the Cup this year.  Cup winners are very rarely the best regular season team, in fact the President's trophy winner has lost more times in the first round (3) than won Cups (2) in the last 20 years.  All we need is for Kap to get hot, Gus to get hot and some puck luck.

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    35 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    This is why in the 2nd paragraph, I'm not buying the last 22 games' performances. There's a lot of 0s out there in games against hard competition. That can't happen. The last time we were in this situation, Boldy rose to the occasion and willed us into the playoffs. He was 21 at the time. He is not doing that this time around. We need his and Rossi's points in every game. 

    I agree that it would be great if they were more consistent, both have been held to zero points 11 times in the last 22, but even McDavid and McKinnon have had 6 games each in their last 22 with zero points.  Every game probably isn't realistic, but if at least one of them gets hot and can go the final 21 games and put up a point or more in say 15 of those games, that would be great.

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    23 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    Got it.  Let's just have Kap lead us to the Cup this year.  Cup winners are very rarely the best regular season team, in fact the President's trophy winner has lost more times in the first round (3) than won Cups (2) in the last 20 years.  All we need is for Kap to get hot, Gus to get hot and some puck luck.

    I’m with ya there!

    🍻

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    Its really not as easy as people think it is to hop on to a cup winning team , i mean even when a team wins a cup they still lose 97% or more of the time .  

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