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  • The Nyquist Trade Keeps the Wild's Recycling Plan Going


    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    The boys are back in town
    The boys are back in town
    The boys are back in town
    The boys are back in town

    Guess who just got back this weekend? Gustav Nyquist, who was part of the Minnesota Wild's trade deadline machinations in the 2022-23 season. It's hard to argue that Nyquist wasn't worth the fifth-round pick the Wild surrendered for him back then, even if he only played nine games. Two goals and nine points is more production than Minnesota's gotten out of 14 of their 18 fifth-rounders from 2000 to 2020, and four of those points came in six playoff games.

    You can't say that Minnesota doesn't need some offensive punch. Since Kirill Kaprizov went down with an injury before Christmas, the Wild are 28th in the NHL in goals per hour at 5-on-5 (2.01). It's also true that Minnesota doesn't have too much flexibility. It sent Marat Khusnutdinov and Liam Öhgren to the AHL to accommodate Nyquist's $1.6 million cap hit after the Nashville Predators ate 50% of his salary.

    The Wild operate with a higher degree of difficulty than 31 teams in the NHL, and trading their first-round pick for David Jiricek gives them less draft capital to offer other teams. That's all understandable. Nyquist was available, he could fit into the Wild's cap picture, and there was familiarity. It's not hard to see why the trade got made.

    Still, the move registers as uninspiring, certainly in the greater context of the Wild's team-building. 

    We know that Bill Guerin is loyal to "his guys." If you have success in a Wild uniform and have a reputation as being good in the locker room, Guerin moves heaven and earth to keep you around. Sometimes, it works well -- look at Marcus Foligno and Mats Zuccarello having strong seasons -- and sometimes, it doesn't, with Ryan Hartman on the suspended list.

    It's not unusual for a GM to have a core of veteran players they want to keep around. What's more curious is that Guerin's loyalty seems to extend to a player even after they leave the organization.

    Nyquist is now the second player that Guerin has traded for in two separate deals. The first was Marcus Johansson -- who Guerin acquired in the Eric Staal deal before the 2021 season, then again at the same 2022-23 trade deadline where he obtained Nyquist. Johansson flopped in his first go-round in Minnesota, with just six goals and 14 points in 36 games, while not being able to stick at center like the team had hoped.

    Still, there was something Guerin and Dean Evason liked in Johansson, and they traded for him again. That move paid early dividends, with Johansson amassing six goals and 18 points in 20 games after the trade deadline, then chipping in two goals in his six playoff games.

    After that, Guerin doubled down on his trade deadline find, inking him to a two-year, $4 million deal to solidify his top-nine during the worst of his salary cap woes. Since then, Johansson has logged only 16 goals and 49 points in 129 games, necessitating a trade for someone like Nyquist.

    Johansson hasn't established a high bar to clear offensively this season. He's fourth among Wild forwards in 5-on-5 ice time, yet is tied with Yakov Trenin for ninth in goals (four) and eighth in points (13). It's not hard to think that someone -- heck, almost anyone -- could step into a top-nine role and be an instant improvement.

    Sadly, there's been little indication that Nyquist is prepared to do that, at least this year. At 5-on-5, Nyquist lags behind Johansson in almost every relevant stat.

    5-on-5 Offense, 2024-25

    Johansson: 0.33 Goals/60; 1.08 Points/60; 5.65 Shots/60
    Nyquist: 0.24 Goals/60; 0.87 Points/60; 3.33 Shots/60

    You can't blame Nyquist's role in Nashville, either. He wasn't buried on the depth chart; he was playing alongside the Predators' biggest stars. His top three forward partners are Ryan O'Reilly (60.8% of his 5-on-5 ice time), Filip Forsberg (34.5%), and Steven Stamkos (17.7%). Heck, you can argue that Nyquist had better assignments than Johansson! MoJo/JoJo has skated with Ryan Hartman for 40.1% of his 5-on-5 minutes, 36.9% with Joel Eriksson Ek, and 36.5% with Matt Boldy

    image.png

    Again, Nyquist was cheap and available, that's understandable. The Wild can have the flexibility to acquire someone else if they don't foresee Eriksson Ek and/or Kaprizov returning before the playoffs. Still, why spend any draft capital getting someone who is 35 years old and isn't much of an upgrade, if any, over what's already in-house?

    How can you look at Guerin's history and conclude anything else but that Nyquist has been here before? There's nothing wrong with recycling someone in itself. If a player was a good fit before and is still productive, then sure, go for it.

    The problem is that neither of the players Guerin recycled fit that criterion. Johansson wasn't productive in his first stint in Minnesota, and falling for a short-term production boost was unquestionably a mistake. Meanwhile, Nyquist's production seems to be bottoming out at 35, an age at which forwards can expect steep declines.

    It shows much less imagination than the Wild have been capable of this season. Trading a first-round pick to land a top, post-hype prospect like Jiricek was a strong, creative move with long-term upside. What's the upside in Nyquist?

    It's repeating the short-term production boost the Wild got back in those nine games during the 2022-23 season. It's not nothing, but also... did we forget the fate of the 2022-23 team? Their season ended in the first round, with Minnesota blowing a 1-0 series lead to lose in six games to the Dallas Stars. 

    Pick whatever trade deadline acquisition you want to throw out in your wildest dreams -- Mikko Rantanen isn't going to guarantee Minnesota a playoff series win, especially not with their limitations. The goal is reasonable: Give the team a puncher's chance at breaking a playoff series drought threatening to reach the decade mark.

    Still, unless Nyquist's arrival precedes something that moves the needle more, it's hard to get excited about re-creating a team that no one was surprised to see flame out in the first round.

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    "you think Parise and Suter was bought out to sign Kaprizov? what?"

    July 13th, 2021 https://www.nhl.com/news/zach-parise-ryan-suter-deals-bought-out-by-minnesota-325641738:

    "The buyouts free up more than $10 million in NHL salary cap space next season, then $2 million the following season before the savings decrease in 2023-24 and 2024-25."

    Sept. 21st, 2021: https://www.bleachernation.com/blackhawks/2021/09/21/kirill-kaprizov-signs-a-five-year-45m-extension-with-the-minnesota-wild/

     

    So yes, I do think they had to do what they could to move money to make the deal work.  They also tried giving Fiala that one year deal with said surplus, leading to the Faber/Ohgren trade.  The buyout wasn't done in a vacuum.  Five years of Kap and one extra year for Fiala (and the trade afterwards) were bought with the extra money.

     

     

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    2 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    "you think Parise and Suter was bought out to sign Kaprizov? what?"

    July 13th, 2021 https://www.nhl.com/news/zach-parise-ryan-suter-deals-bought-out-by-minnesota-325641738:

    "The buyouts free up more than $10 million in NHL salary cap space next season, then $2 million the following season before the savings decrease in 2023-24 and 2024-25."

    Sept. 21st, 2021: https://www.bleachernation.com/blackhawks/2021/09/21/kirill-kaprizov-signs-a-five-year-45m-extension-with-the-minnesota-wild/

     

    So yes, I do think they had to do what they could to move money to make the deal work.  They also tried giving Fiala that one year deal with said surplus, leading to the Faber/Ohgren trade.  The buyout wasn't done in a vacuum.  Five years of Kap and one extra year for Fiala (and the trade afterwards) were bought with the extra money.

     

     

    you don't think they could have worked around that? or maybe not signed Goli for 5MM? i think we could both agree that Suter was much better that Goli, so why would they boot him, if not for his shady character? if that was not the case, they could have kept him, skipped on Goli or other crap that they picked up (or traded Dumba while he had any value) and still had the money to sign kap. this is not an impossible task, that's why you have a cap assistant (oh that's right, we got rid of him!) and plan accordingly. billy called it a culture shift first and foremost so let's keep at it and not insert "oh we had to do it or no Kap".....right that was the reason!

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    Just now, Citizen Strife said:

    So yes, I do think they had to do what they could to move money to make the deal work.  

    Not to mention the expansion draft. Who's to say Parise and Suter would've been willing to take the risk Seattle would pick them? It would've put somebody more valuable than Soucy at risk of exposure if they hadn't.

    Then there's Fiala's arbitration year to consider. He was $5.1M. I believe that the buyouts saved us about $10M in cap room that season and even then we were up against the ceiling still.

    So no buyouts likely means no Faber or Ohgren since it gave us some semblence of leverage to keep Fiala, have him produce for a season, and then sell him off.

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    Watch Nojo play with a pulse for the final 20 games of this contract in his quest for another NHL contract.  Just when you think he can't get more unlikeable, he overcomes and finds a way.

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    2 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    you don't think they could have worked around that? or maybe not signed Goli for 5MM? i think we could both agree that Suter was much better that Goli, so why would they boot him, if not for his shady character? if that was not the case, they could have kept him, skipped on Goli or other crap that they picked up (or traded Dumba while he had any value) and still had the money to sign kap. this is not an impossible task, that's why you have a cap assistant (oh that's right, we got rid of him!) and plan accordingly. billy called it a culture shift first and foremost so let's keep at it and not insert "oh we had to do it or no Kap".....right that was the reason!

    Hindsight, 20/20.  Sure is easy to just act high and mighty and know it all after the cards fall.

    Suter and Parise (to a lesser extent) were going to be albatrosses in the locker room for god knows how long.

    Dumba was good for the team pretty much up until he left (and hasn't been good since).  Goligoski played well for half a season, only to crater pretty dang fast.  But lets not forget, Guerin also knows when to cut his losses when he can.  He traded for Addison, only to nope out for Bogo when it became clear Addison couldnt' even keep an NHL spot at that point.  Hell, I think even Tony's probably sitting here going, "That dead cat bounce Bogo had is lasting far a lot longer than I thought..."

    Or hey, maybe we could have traded Gus when we should have and put Wally here.  No sweat.  No trouble winning games there. (Gus beats Boston 1-0 yesterday).  For as many flubs you can and rightly explain, there are just as many positives the team can point to and say, "We dodged bullets and made the right choices here."

    Again, 5th-10th in the league all fucking season, with no money, injuries up the ass, and players who "shouldn't even be in the league" according to some of us.  

     

     

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    2 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    Not to mention the expansion draft. Who's to say Parise and Suter would've been willing to take the risk Seattle would pick them? It would've put somebody more valuable than Soucy at risk of exposure if they hadn't.

    Then there's Fiala's arbitration year to consider. He was $5.1M. I believe that the buyouts saved us about $10M in cap room that season and even then we were up against the ceiling still.

    So no buyouts likely means no Faber or Ohgren since it gave us some semblence of leverage to keep Fiala, have him produce for a season, and then sell him off.

    oh stop with IF this happens THEN that happens. it's almost like buyouts were god sent haha. so why are you then complaining about them? pick a lane and stay there! 

    i don't know what i'd do if Ohgren is not with the Wild....oh right - he was demoted for the 6th time this year, so he is not with the Wild 🙂

    here is the reality - we have moved on from Parise and Suter. We could NOT reuse the money. That happens with teams. Some just let it play out and not sign Goligovskiy. And some sign Goligovskiy, buy out the players and then cry to the media about life being unfair. 

     

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    Just now, OldDutchChip said:

    oh stop with IF this happens THEN that happens. it's almost like buyouts were god sent haha. so why are you then complaining about them? pick a lane and stay there! 

    Um they were a god send in those years. We needed that extra cap-space... 

    I'm not the one complaining about them. They are what they are. Just as we knew the contracts would suck at the tail end when they signed. It doesn't mean we should just pretend it didn't affect the moves the GM could make last year and this season though.

    The buy outs let us have a couple years of cap-relief to make some moves versus having no space at all for 4 straight seasons instead of just the last 2. 

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    Just now, Citizen Strife said:

    Hindsight, 20/20.  Sure is easy to just act high and mighty and know it all after the cards fall.

    Suter and Parise (to a lesser extent) were going to be albatrosses in the locker room for god knows how long.

    Dumba was good for the team pretty much up until he left (and hasn't been good since).  Goligoski played well for half a season, only to crater pretty dang fast.  But lets not forget, Guerin also knows when to cut his losses when he can.  He traded for Addison, only to nope out for Bogo when it became clear Addison couldnt' even keep an NHL spot at that point.  Hell, I think even Tony's probably sitting here going, "That dead cat bounce Bogo had is lasting far a lot longer than I thought..."

    Or hey, maybe we could have traded Gus when we should have and put Wally here.  No sweat.  No trouble winning games there. (Gus beats Boston 1-0 yesterday).  For as many flubs you can and rightly explain, there are just as many positives the team can point to and say, "We dodged bullets and made the right choices here."

    Again, 5th-10th in the league all fucking season, with no money, injuries up the ass, and players who "shouldn't even be in the league" according to some of us.  

     

     

    Hindsight, 20/20.  Sure is easy to just act high and mighty and know it all after the cards fall. but that's exactly what you are doing 😉 

    we are 5-10th in the league because THE best player in the league dragged us to relevancy and now we are trying to hold on without him. maybe if we'd build a team that plays to the strength of our best player, we wouldn't be in this mess. but that will never be known, cause we are going for good old safe route. proof - see last trade. Wild card baby! get ready

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    3 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    Um they were a god send in those years. We needed that extra cap-space... 

    I'm not the one complaining about them. They are what they are. Just as we knew the contracts would suck at the tail end when they signed. It doesn't mean we should just pretend it didn't affect the moves the GM could make last year and this season though.

    The buy outs let us have a couple years of cap-relief to make some moves versus having no space at all for 4 straight seasons instead of just the last 2. 

    i am also definitely NOT the one complaining about them. i am pointing out that to use them now as a crutch is disingenious... especially that they were advantageous to you early on and are money that are NOT re-usable. 🍻

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    Acting high and mighty isn't exactly what I'd classify it as.  I've stayed pretty consistent in the "I don't know what the fuck I'm doing, so I'll trust the GM, coaches, and players" because they are the ones playing this stuff out.  I don't work for the team, don't work for this site, but just try to see where the team is going or is trying to go.  But I'm also aware of many mistakes that were made.

    The best I can agree with is Nyquist for a 2nd is a high price to pay, but if the team ends up winning, it ends up winning because he's now here.  

    The meat of the argument (and all the arguments we seem to have for whatever stupid reason) is approach.  I see value in a lot of players on this team, and don't think it is nearly as dearth of talent as ODC seems to.  If they were, Foligno and Spurgeon not being injured wouldn't have turned the team from one fighting the playoff bubble all last season to a Top 5-10 team this season (all with the same coach, and mostly the same setup, and worse injuries).

    ODC wants a drastic shakeup so the team can say, "We did everything we could.  We could have gotten Rantanen super easy.  We could have gotten this guy or this guy or this guy super easy.  Other teams are doing it."  

    I'm coming from the approach that for all the team's many faults, there's something about the team they can build off of with players later down the line.  Players they will need to replenish 1 year, 2 years, 5 years down the road.  That is what Guerin is doing (for the most part).  But, Nyquist is answering an immediate problem beyond their control now.  All without saying, "Well, if we get this superstar, he better win now, cause we don't have any 1sts, 2nds, or whomever for depth later."

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    The real answer is I don't know, and will never know anything.  But I can be a fan of the team still without thinking like they should listen to me (some dork online). 

    If the team wins this year, great.  If they don't, well, they tried.  They didn't try a nuclear bomb to another team to get a superstar, but they still tried.  And guess what?  I don't even know what's going to happen July 1st.  If Kap and Rossi both get re-signed, fine by me.  That's what I expect.  If one does but another leaves...well, it sucks. but I'll live.  If both leave....well shit.  such is life.

    All I'm trying to do is make my point as logically as I can, even if I get hung up on complaints over and over.  I'm not trying to be "peace and love and happiness" and shit.  Just trying to say the team is not as bad as we like to think it is.  Not trying to be some posterchild of positivity or anything.  Just some guy saying things could be way worse given the circumstances.

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    5 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Just trying to say the team is not as bad as we like to think it is.

    Averaged 101 points the last 3 seasons before this. They had only exceeded 101 points one other time in their history prior to the last 3 seasons and they were on pace to finish above that again prior to Kaprizov's injury.

    Everyone knows Kaprizov elevates the team like nobody else, and he's highly competitive, so getting him back to the playoffs should be incredibly important ahead of a summer in which they want to sign him to a long term extension.

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    1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

    FL goes out and gets what they need in Seth Jones and park Tkachuk till PO

    Putting Tkachuk on IR until the playoffs probably gives them the leverage to make another move if they want.  They had the space to make the move for Jones without moving Tkachuk to IR I believe since they have $8.7M in space right now.

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    13 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Acting high and mighty isn't exactly what I'd classify it as.  I've stayed pretty consistent in the "I don't know what the fuck I'm doing, so I'll trust the GM, coaches, and players" because they are the ones playing this stuff out.  I don't work for the team, don't work for this site, but just try to see where the team is going or is trying to go.  But I'm also aware of many mistakes that were made.

    The best I can agree with is Nyquist for a 2nd is a high price to pay, but if the team ends up winning, it ends up winning because he's now here.  

    The meat of the argument (and all the arguments we seem to have for whatever stupid reason) is approach.  I see value in a lot of players on this team, and don't think it is nearly as dearth of talent as ODC seems to.  If they were, Foligno and Spurgeon not being injured wouldn't have turned the team from one fighting the playoff bubble all last season to a Top 5-10 team this season (all with the same coach, and mostly the same setup, and worse injuries).

    ODC wants a drastic shakeup so the team can say, "We did everything we could.  We could have gotten Rantanen super easy.  We could have gotten this guy or this guy or this guy super easy.  Other teams are doing it."  

    I'm coming from the approach that for all the team's many faults, there's something about the team they can build off of with players later down the line.  Players they will need to replenish 1 year, 2 years, 5 years down the road.  That is what Guerin is doing (for the most part).  But, Nyquist is answering an immediate problem beyond their control now.  All without saying, "Well, if we get this superstar, he better win now, cause we don't have any 1sts, 2nds, or whomever for depth later."

    Acting high and mighty isn't exactly what I'd classify it as. huh? 

    I've stayed pretty consistent in the "I don't know what the fuck I'm doing, so I'll trust the GM, coaches, and players" because they are the ones playing this stuff out. is there rules to how to comment and what to say as to not go against an outlined agenda? interesting!

    I don't work for the team, don't work for this site, but just try to see where the team is going or is trying to go.  But I'm also aware of many mistakes that were made. good, same here. 

    The meat of the argument (and all the arguments we seem to have for whatever stupid reason) is approach.  I see value in a lot of players on this team, and don't think it is nearly as dearth of talent as ODC seems to.  the meat is that you think that our timeline is determined by overall progress and isn't impacted by an outside variable whatsoever. While i stress that Kaprizov is that variable and our timeline has to change and our approach has to adapt. Status quo and norm will not suffice here. 

    If they were, Foligno and Spurgeon not being injured wouldn't have turned the team from one fighting the playoff bubble all last season to a Top 5-10 team this season (all with the same coach, and mostly the same setup, and worse injuries). we have THE best player in the league that was unstoppable. You know the one that i think should dictate your strategy planning and execution.

    ODC wants a drastic shakeup so the team can say, "We did everything we could.  We could have gotten Rantanen super easy.  We could have gotten this guy or this guy or this guy super easy.  Other teams are doing it."   You know what i want? hmm never did i say that getting Ranty be super easy, but going after him is a must and getting him would be amazing. if you prefer Nelson and Nyquist - OK.

    I'm coming from the approach that for all the team's many faults, there's something about the team they can build off of with players later down the line.  again your thinking is unchanged by the reality of Kaprizov pending free agency. it's if nothing can go wrong or if Kaprizov will pick his course, nothing we can do, so let's just do nothing or actually just do it regardless of whether he is here or not (that's where paying for 35+ players (Nelson and Nyquist) and retaining them (spurgeon) is actually applauded or seen as OK by you.

    Players they will need to replenish 1 year, 2 years, 5 years down the road. sure, when are we replenishing Kaprizov? 

    That is what Guerin is doing (for the most part).  But, Nyquist is answering an immediate problem beyond their control now.  All without saying, "Well, if we get this superstar, he better win now, cause we don't have any 1sts, 2nds, or whomever for depth later."  Beyond whose control? GM should have control of the team and most of all know exactly where he stands (to the best of his abililty) in relation to Kaprizov, his No1 priority. As for 1st, 2nds or whoever - we are slowly running out of it. and what do we have? team that still is in dire needs of it's superstar and knows that without him, they will drown. Instead of realizing that, he is basically folding and resetting with what people can digest easier. He knows he will likely loose Kap so he will load up on Minny connections - hence we will get Brock Nelson, we will also likely get Boeser and let Rossi walk....people already are forgetting they have Kaprizov. All with Boldy and Faber dominance in that tournament! Oh wow. That's the reality. And now Nyquist. No of course not, i understand Ranty was never and will never be in the cards for us. That's reserved for teams that actually want to win. 🍻

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    7 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    Putting Tkachuk on IR until the playoffs probably gives them the leverage to make another move if they want.  They had the space to make the move for Jones without moving Tkachuk to IR I believe since they have $8.7M in space right now.

    you think they'll go for Bjugstad for Nostalgic reasons or is that only reserved for us?

     

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    Daily face off was saying the Columbus blue jackets have so much cap space that next year they might have to take on salary to hit cap floor. They are a couple points behind Billy’s caped out clause laden team .  The buy outs needed to happen but using them as excuses year after year is b.s. . Billy is a middle of the road gm. If he managed his money and contracts better he’d have more cap space or tradable  assets. Those buy outs aren’t holding the wild back it’s Billy’s management.  Waste a 26 2 nd this year is a mistake. Especially with all the crying about how next year is the year. Well he’s already wasting next years ammo to try to save face this year. 
       I’m just waiting for the 5x5 Nmc extension for 35 yr old Gus . That’s a totally Billy move. 

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    35 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    The real answer is I don't know, and will never know anything.  But I can be a fan of the team still without thinking like they should listen to me (some dork online). 

    If the team wins this year, great.  If they don't, well, they tried.  They didn't try a nuclear bomb to another team to get a superstar, but they still tried.  And guess what?  I don't even know what's going to happen July 1st.  If Kap and Rossi both get re-signed, fine by me.  That's what I expect.  If one does but another leaves...well, it sucks. but I'll live.  If both leave....well shit.  such is life.

    All I'm trying to do is make my point as logically as I can, even if I get hung up on complaints over and over.  I'm not trying to be "peace and love and happiness" and shit.  Just trying to say the team is not as bad as we like to think it is.  Not trying to be some posterchild of positivity or anything.  Just some guy saying things could be way worse given the circumstances.

    no one knows that. we are on the same page here. i am just a bit more pro-active and urgency, while i think you are more patient and stress development. i am finding that we are not doing what we need for either sides. billy is sort of in a no man's land, and his dealings are evidently not for what is best for the long-term success of the wild, but for short term success of billy himself. at least to me. 😞

     

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    41 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    we are 5-10th in the league because THE best player in the league dragged us to relevancy and now we are trying to hold on without him. maybe if we'd build a team that plays to the strength of our best player, we wouldn't be in this mess

    Kap did get us off to a hot start, can't disagree with you there.  But also, I wouldn't call the team a mess without him.  Our record with Kap prior to his injury after Christmas was 20-10-4, on pace for 106 points.  Our record without Kap, prior to the Ek injury was 12-7-1, on pace for 102.5.  Edmonton is on pace for 101 and Tampa on pace for 103 and they have not had injuries to their top player like we have.

    The Ek injury really hurt.  This team was built good enough to play at a top ten level without Kap, but not to survive losing EK on top of it.  

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    25 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    you think they'll go for Bjugstad for Nostalgic reasons or is that only reserved for us?

     

    Where in my post did I say anything about nostalgic reasons or what we do???  Just pointed out that they can make more moves if they want.

    Edited by SkolWild73
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    19 minutes ago, Dean said:

    I’m just waiting for the 5x5 Nmc extension for 35 yr old Gus . That’s a totally Billy move. 

    Not impossible given BG's track record.  I'm waiting for a 2 year extension to......wait for it....Nojo

    Guerin has not proven he's too smart to do that.  He likes to prove he was right (even when he was wrong) so it's not a 0% chance a Nojo extension doesn't happen.

    Hot take #1: Ogz gone by weeks end.  Not sure what old expensive dead wood goes with him to clear space + future draft picks to return the top six forward.  Just hope he's younger than 33 years old.

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