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  • The Nyquist Trade Keeps the Wild's Recycling Plan Going


    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    The boys are back in town
    The boys are back in town
    The boys are back in town
    The boys are back in town

    Guess who just got back this weekend? Gustav Nyquist, who was part of the Minnesota Wild's trade deadline machinations in the 2022-23 season. It's hard to argue that Nyquist wasn't worth the fifth-round pick the Wild surrendered for him back then, even if he only played nine games. Two goals and nine points is more production than Minnesota's gotten out of 14 of their 18 fifth-rounders from 2000 to 2020, and four of those points came in six playoff games.

    You can't say that Minnesota doesn't need some offensive punch. Since Kirill Kaprizov went down with an injury before Christmas, the Wild are 28th in the NHL in goals per hour at 5-on-5 (2.01). It's also true that Minnesota doesn't have too much flexibility. It sent Marat Khusnutdinov and Liam Öhgren to the AHL to accommodate Nyquist's $1.6 million cap hit after the Nashville Predators ate 50% of his salary.

    The Wild operate with a higher degree of difficulty than 31 teams in the NHL, and trading their first-round pick for David Jiricek gives them less draft capital to offer other teams. That's all understandable. Nyquist was available, he could fit into the Wild's cap picture, and there was familiarity. It's not hard to see why the trade got made.

    Still, the move registers as uninspiring, certainly in the greater context of the Wild's team-building. 

    We know that Bill Guerin is loyal to "his guys." If you have success in a Wild uniform and have a reputation as being good in the locker room, Guerin moves heaven and earth to keep you around. Sometimes, it works well -- look at Marcus Foligno and Mats Zuccarello having strong seasons -- and sometimes, it doesn't, with Ryan Hartman on the suspended list.

    It's not unusual for a GM to have a core of veteran players they want to keep around. What's more curious is that Guerin's loyalty seems to extend to a player even after they leave the organization.

    Nyquist is now the second player that Guerin has traded for in two separate deals. The first was Marcus Johansson -- who Guerin acquired in the Eric Staal deal before the 2021 season, then again at the same 2022-23 trade deadline where he obtained Nyquist. Johansson flopped in his first go-round in Minnesota, with just six goals and 14 points in 36 games, while not being able to stick at center like the team had hoped.

    Still, there was something Guerin and Dean Evason liked in Johansson, and they traded for him again. That move paid early dividends, with Johansson amassing six goals and 18 points in 20 games after the trade deadline, then chipping in two goals in his six playoff games.

    After that, Guerin doubled down on his trade deadline find, inking him to a two-year, $4 million deal to solidify his top-nine during the worst of his salary cap woes. Since then, Johansson has logged only 16 goals and 49 points in 129 games, necessitating a trade for someone like Nyquist.

    Johansson hasn't established a high bar to clear offensively this season. He's fourth among Wild forwards in 5-on-5 ice time, yet is tied with Yakov Trenin for ninth in goals (four) and eighth in points (13). It's not hard to think that someone -- heck, almost anyone -- could step into a top-nine role and be an instant improvement.

    Sadly, there's been little indication that Nyquist is prepared to do that, at least this year. At 5-on-5, Nyquist lags behind Johansson in almost every relevant stat.

    5-on-5 Offense, 2024-25

    Johansson: 0.33 Goals/60; 1.08 Points/60; 5.65 Shots/60
    Nyquist: 0.24 Goals/60; 0.87 Points/60; 3.33 Shots/60

    You can't blame Nyquist's role in Nashville, either. He wasn't buried on the depth chart; he was playing alongside the Predators' biggest stars. His top three forward partners are Ryan O'Reilly (60.8% of his 5-on-5 ice time), Filip Forsberg (34.5%), and Steven Stamkos (17.7%). Heck, you can argue that Nyquist had better assignments than Johansson! MoJo/JoJo has skated with Ryan Hartman for 40.1% of his 5-on-5 minutes, 36.9% with Joel Eriksson Ek, and 36.5% with Matt Boldy

    image.png

    Again, Nyquist was cheap and available, that's understandable. The Wild can have the flexibility to acquire someone else if they don't foresee Eriksson Ek and/or Kaprizov returning before the playoffs. Still, why spend any draft capital getting someone who is 35 years old and isn't much of an upgrade, if any, over what's already in-house?

    How can you look at Guerin's history and conclude anything else but that Nyquist has been here before? There's nothing wrong with recycling someone in itself. If a player was a good fit before and is still productive, then sure, go for it.

    The problem is that neither of the players Guerin recycled fit that criterion. Johansson wasn't productive in his first stint in Minnesota, and falling for a short-term production boost was unquestionably a mistake. Meanwhile, Nyquist's production seems to be bottoming out at 35, an age at which forwards can expect steep declines.

    It shows much less imagination than the Wild have been capable of this season. Trading a first-round pick to land a top, post-hype prospect like Jiricek was a strong, creative move with long-term upside. What's the upside in Nyquist?

    It's repeating the short-term production boost the Wild got back in those nine games during the 2022-23 season. It's not nothing, but also... did we forget the fate of the 2022-23 team? Their season ended in the first round, with Minnesota blowing a 1-0 series lead to lose in six games to the Dallas Stars. 

    Pick whatever trade deadline acquisition you want to throw out in your wildest dreams -- Mikko Rantanen isn't going to guarantee Minnesota a playoff series win, especially not with their limitations. The goal is reasonable: Give the team a puncher's chance at breaking a playoff series drought threatening to reach the decade mark.

    Still, unless Nyquist's arrival precedes something that moves the needle more, it's hard to get excited about re-creating a team that no one was surprised to see flame out in the first round.

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    Guerin was on record yesterday saying Kap and Ek are probably not LTIR options.  For once, the NMCs rear their heads and can say, "well, we can't move these people."  But let's not pretend the Wild have any cap space at all.  I would have preferred the Wild do jack squat and keep the 2nd round pick...but maybe Guerin HAS to make the playoffs even after all the shit the team has gone through.

    Losing out on the playoffs only helps Colombus's draft position after the Jiricek trade.  the team, coaches, and GM aren't going to just punt the season.  My guess is this was a measured move because the Jiricek play was the big one they did.

    They STILL beat Boston somehow.  I don't know whether to be happy or laugh that Boston got goalied.

     

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    13 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Losing out on the playoffs only helps Colombus's draft position after the Jiricek trade.  the team, coaches, and GM aren't going to just punt the season.  My guess is this was a measured move because the Jiricek play was the big one they did.

    I think we are forgetting the elephant in the room; Kaprizov's looming decision. 

    How are you supposed to sell him on the future of the roster if the team fails to make the playoffs without him? Winning a series, maybe even two, would go a long way toward showing him that they're making steps to get closer to Cup contention. Especially once you add in some of the #2-ranked prospects to the future of the roster. 

    Its easier to sell him on that potential if the floor looks to be a team that can win a series, versus one that misses the post-season or gets bounced out of the 1st round again. 

    If that 2026 2nd round pick helps us get past the 1st round and Kap decides to stick around, that is worth much more (short- and long-term) than whatever prospect we likely would've gotten from it. 

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    I'm wondering if Hynes breaks out some HGH to give his team a boost moving forward.

    Gaudreau is clearly a top 3 C on the team with JEE out. Hartman and Hinostroza were scoring forwards for Chicago's AHL team back in 2015-2016 before Hartman jumped into the NHL. Vinnie was fairly productive with the Blackhawks early in his career(39 points in 99 games while averaging around 13 minutes) while Hartman was there and these guys are close friends. For reference, Johansson has 35 points in his last 99 games with the Wild while averaging around 16 minutes per game--23% more minutes and fewer points for NoJo and nearly all even strength or PP. Hinostoza is also tied for the team lead in goals scored(3) over his 7 game stretch with the Wild, so playing him top 6 isn't a crazy as people might have thought when the Wild claimed him off waivers. That move was very underappreciated when it was made.

    Could a Hartman, Gaudreau, Hinostroza(HGH) line find some chemistry that boosts the Wild down the stretch?

    We may not find out as Hartman could also be considered a top 3 C for the team and Hynes could put him between Trenin and Foligno. The center need is greater than it was a few days ago due to Khusnutdinov going to the AHL on a purely financial move after adding Nyquist. It's a shame Guerin couldn't get Nashville to retain another $500k in the Nyquist trade, but Nyquist could bring a boost to the Wild's top line.

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    3 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    I'm wondering if Hynes breaks out some HGH to give his team a boost moving forward.

    Gaudreau is clearly a top 3 C on the team with JEE out. Hartman and Hinostroza were scoring forwards for Chicago's AHL team back in 2015-2016 before Hartman jumped into the NHL. Vinnie was fairly productive with the Blackhawks early in his career(39 points in 99 games while averaging around 13 minutes) while Hartman was there and these guys are close friends. For reference, Johansson has 35 points in his last 99 games with the Wild while averaging around 16 minutes per game--23% more minutes and fewer points for NoJo and nearly all even strength or PP. Hinostoza is also tied for the team lead in goals scored(3) over his 7 game stretch with the Wild, so playing him top 6 isn't a crazy as people might have thought when the Wild claimed him off waivers. That move was very underappreciated when it was made.

    Could a Hartman, Gaudreau, Hinostroza(HGH) line find some chemistry that boosts the Wild down the stretch?

    We may not find out as Hartman could also be considered a top 3 C for the team and Hynes could put him between Trenin and Foligno. The center need is greater than it was a few days ago due to Khusnutdinov going to the AHL on a purely financial move after adding Nyquist. It's a shame Guerin couldn't get Nashville to retain another $500k in the Nyquist trade, but Nyquist could bring a boost to the Wild's top line.

    The max a team can retain is 50%.

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    All things considered, getting Nyquist seems like a godsend.  

    He instantly is a top line player game 1, and looked significantly better than a number of guys who have been hanging out in our top 6 all year.

    No need to get excited, but if Nyquist can remove Nojo from the top 6 we all should be happy.

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    5 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Could a Hartman, Gaudreau, Hinostroza(HGH) line find some chemistry that boosts the Wild down the stretch?

    They should do this for the name alone!

    But yes, I can definitely see that being our 4th line in the post-season if they're able to add another 3rd-line C before the TDL. 

    Otherwise the bottom-6 is probably:

    Trenin-Gaudreau-Foligno

    Hinny-Hartman-Lauko

    Edited by B1GKappa97
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    3 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    If that 2026 2nd round pick helps us get past the 1st round and Kap decides to stick around, that is worth much more (short- and long-term) than whatever prospect we likely would've gotten from it. 

    One other thing about that 2026 2nd round pick. By the time a player selected in the latter half of the 2026 2nd round is making it to the NHL, the Wild will also be gaining another $1.66M in cap space from the Suter/Parise buy-outs years finally ending. We are talking 2030, at minimum, for a 2026 late 2nd round pick and the Wild could be playing playoff hockey in 2025.

    Nyquist has talent. I don't know what's behind the Nashville funk this season, but him getting out of there could be a boost for him and the Wild.

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    2 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

    All things considered, getting Nyquist seems like a godsend.  

    He instantly is a top line player game 1, and looked significantly better than a number of guys who have been hanging out in our top 6 all year.

    No need to get excited, but if Nyquist can remove Nojo from the top 6 we all should be happy.

    I think we saw another benefit to it; Johansson knows his spot is on the line now that Nyquist is here.

    I think I saw him play as hard yesterday as I have since we first acquired him at the TDL a couple years back and he was hunting for a contract. Nyquist's re-arrival may have lit a fire under him that was lacking previously. 

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    FL goes out and gets what they need in Seth Jones and park Tkachuk till PO. They have their eyes on the prize - the cup. 

    Wild goes out and gets Nyquist, because their prize is WC, and so that Leo can get a bit more cash and Billy can have a chance to save his job! Of course, the team can't tell Ek to not play hurt and rest till PO....no surprise here, since they couldn't tell him to rest instead of taking his half-injured ass to play for Sweden for whoknowswhat. So now they must sneak Nyquist in while demoting the two rookies that actually try every day. Sounds smart. Nyquist and Mojo - that duo is surely to help! (very innovative - forward-thinking by Billy....)

    There's your difference in operating a team to be winners and just good enough. 

    Everybody ready for Nyquist to be resigned after few games to 4 years? And then overpaying for one of Brocks? 

    I am!

    spacer.png

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    3 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    I think we saw another benefit to it; Johansson knows his spot is on the line now that Nyquist is here.

    I think I saw him play as hard yesterday as I have since we first acquired him at the TDL a couple years back and he was hunting for a contract. Nyquist's re-arrival may have lit a fire under him that was lacking previously. 

    These guys are both from Sweden and around age 35. They've probably played on a bunch of teams together in the past. Johansson has never been overly productive on the Wild when Nyquist wasn't also on the Wild. I hadn't given this any real thought in the past, but maybe Nyquist here does add something to Johansson's game as well, even without them playing on a line together.

    Obviously it was the defense/Gus and a bit of a lucky bounce off Freddie's rump that got the last win, but those were big points. Getting Hartman back and getting Nyquist further acclimated could help the Wild get some mojo back to carry them into the playoffs. If Kaprizov and JEE can actually get healthy and stay that way for the playoffs, the Wild could be a really tough round 1 matchup.

    I'm much more optimistic about their prospects with Nyquist in the mix.

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    We don't know what Guerin was or wasn't offered for what players that could or couldn't have been on the table.  The Wild are playing at a deficit no other team is dealing with.  Even moreso because the injuries have pretty much made that even WORSE.  

    But whatever NHL 25 trade with monopoly money and no consequence you have in your head is so easy to make happen in real life.  Guerin had an offer of reasonable value and took it.

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    1 minute ago, Citizen Strife said:

    We don't know what Guerin was or wasn't offered for what players that could or couldn't have been on the table.  The Wild are playing at a deficit no other team is dealing with.  Even moreso because the injuries have pretty much made that even WORSE.  

    But whatever NHL 25 trade with monopoly money and no consequence you have in your head is so easy to make happen in real life.  Guerin had an offer of reasonable value and took it.

    The Wild are playing at a deficit no other team is dealing with.  BS - loss of Parise and Suter would have meant nothing for any team in the league. stop making excuses for Billy failing time and time again.

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    For fuck sake.  Do you remember the recapture penalty?  Parise retired, which meant upwards of $19m or more in dead cap.  Guerin kept the number to a flat rate (and signed Kap with leftover money at the time) so Parise retiring didn't affect the team.  He's been washing his hands of Fletcher's mess since day one. 

    If you thought his $7.5m was bad, try almost triple that.  THEN the injuries the team sustained.  They'd probably in played Letteri's all over the team right now.  The team is lucky to play the hand it even has.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    Just now, Citizen Strife said:

    For fuck sake.  Do you remember the recapture penalty?  Parise retired, which meant upwards of $19m or more in dead cap.  If you thought his $7.5m was bad, try almost triple that.  THEN the injuries the team sustained.

    They'd probably in played Letteri's all over the team right now.

    you do understand that it's parise and suter or nothing? we could NOT reuse the money. that's NOT how this works. we bought them out - that's it - no money to reuse. why is it so hard for you to get that? we lose PARISE and SUTER. not 15 million. get it?

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    6 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    I'm much more optimistic about their prospects with Nyquist in the mix.

    Agreed completely. Guy was a stud last time he was here, one of the few consistent producers in the playoffs for us.

    It didn't work out well for him in Nashville this year for whatever reason, but he's at least an upgrade to the top-6. And if it gets Johansson to play harder too, that's just another benefit. 

    I like that Hynes put him with Boldy and Rossi. 

    Might mean we see a Zuccy-Ek-Kap line in the playoffs maybe, which would be nice because Kap could use an Ek out there to keep guys in line. 

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    The contracts were signed under the recapture penalty.  Parise and Suter being on the team would have just meant years of them being 4th line and 3rd line guys.  Parise retiring would have affected the team regardless of keeping him on the team or not.  Buying him out was the only way to avoid some uncertain weird number of cap for many MANY years that's worse than the $7.5m per year until next season.

    Everything Guerin has had to do is manage weird lofty expectations set by the owner and previous administration, while looking at prospects and go, "You know, this guy may or may not make the team better than what we have left."

    None of us are GMs.  Just relax and deal with the team as is for now.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    Just now, Citizen Strife said:

    The contracts were signed under the recapture penalty.  Parise and Suter being on the team would have just meant years of them being 4th line and 3rd line guys.  Parise retiring would have affected the team regardless of keeping him on the team or not.  Buying him out was the only way to avoid some uncertain weird number of cap for many MANY years that's worse than the $7.5m per year until next season

    With how much some of these guys griped about re-signing Foligno and Hartman to $4M AAV deals, I can't imagine how much their heads would explode if we were paying Parise $7.5M to score 10 points for us on the 4th line.... 

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    Just now, Citizen Strife said:

    The contracts were signed under the recapture penalty.  Parise and Suter being on the team would have just meant years of them being 4th line and 3rd line guys.  Parise retiring would have affected the team regardless of keeping him on the team or not.  Buying him out was the only way to avoid some uncertain weird number of cap for many MANY years that's worse than the $7.5m per year until next season

    the point is the money is not re-usable. so the core issue is with the players not the money. we paid them 7.5 each. to cry about that is childish. that's their contract. every team can then cry about their contracts and say "oh look no other team is playing with dead money like us "oilers!" Darnell Nurse is still on our team but his 10MM is basically down-the-drain-money" oh poor us Oilers!". Get it now? you can easily replace Parise with Jones (current 4th liner) and then you don't have his cap hit to cry over. all teams have dead weights on their team, we just chose to remove ours. Suter likely would have played 10 more years and did no worse than Merrill and likely saved Kap unneeded pain. And ZP could have been written off using IR insurance protocol. So these are just excuses to feed the public. The reality is quiet different. We could have played both but we decided not to and cut them out. We could NOT have re-used the money on 15 MM worse of players. That was never allowed.

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    6 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    With how much some of these guys griped about re-signing Foligno and Hartman to $4M AAV deals, I can't imagine how much their heads would explode if we were paying Parise $7.5M to score 10 points for us on the 4th line.... 

    but we actually are paying them to score zero pts ..... and injure our players.

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    Again, Parise retired.  He would have either been worth $7.5m if he kept playing 3-4 more years or upwards of $19m as a sunk cost bomb.  That was set in stone, unavoidable, and unpredictable.  Buying him out was the only option.  The money they saved in the buyout ALSO payed for Kap's deal at the time.  Sure would like to know what the team would be like for five years without its only star.  The star you keep insisting is just going to walk anyway.

    But we're getting off track.  Spurgeon at the time AND now is one of the best defenseman the team has had.  Guerin is hard wired to favor veterans and giving 3-5 younger players chances to putting 10-20 rookies to sink, swim, or die trying.

    Sorry that a team playing 5-10th place all season isn't good enough.  We don't know what the team is going to do tomorrow, much less in the playoffs.  But hey: they aren't fighting tooth and nail to be 10 pts off the bubble like last year.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    I think the whole rule is stupid because all they did was get bonuses ,   the bonuses didnt give our team an advantage over anyone else .  but now were being disadvantaged  ,  the salary cap is meant to keep a level playing field  but bonuses dont effect that  ,  it would be like McDavid and leon getting a 50 million bonus each doesnt change the roster 

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    1 minute ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Again, Parise retired.  He would have either been worth $7.5m if he kept playing 3-4 more years or upwards of $19m as a sunk cost bomb.  That was set in stone, unavoidable, and unpredictable.  Buying him out was the only option.  The money they saved in the buyout ALSO payed for Kap's deal at the time.  Sure would like to know what the team would be like for five years without its only star.

    But we're getting off track.  Spurgeon at the time AND now is one of the best defenseman the team has had.  Guerin is hard wired to favor veterans and giving 3-5 younger players chances to putting 10-20 rookies to sink, swim, or die trying.

    Sorry that a team playing 5-10th place all season isn't good enough.

    you think Parise and Suter was bought out to sign Kaprizov? what? 

    Spurgeon at the time AND now is one of the best defenseman the team has had. he is going to be 36. he is small. he has injury history. he has shown to be a liability when playoffs come. but i guess that's ok as long as he is a Minny lifer. 

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    "Johansson hasn't established a high bar to clear offensively this season. He's fourth among Wild forwards in 5-on-5 ice time, yet is tied with Yakov Trenin for ninth in goals (four) and eighth in points (13). "

    Un-be-fuckin-lievable

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