By Tony Abbott -
Look, there's nothing that I'd rather do than do a freaking jig on the graves of the Colorado Avalanche. The Cha Cha Slide, a Moonwalk, and maybe even the Marcus Foligno-centric "Hot To Go" parody Nordy does on the Xcel Energy Center's Jumbotron. Watching the Avs drop a surprise Mikko Rantanen trade where they got, generously, 75 cents on the dollar felt incredible.
But anyone in Minnesota knows better than to put that kind of karma out into the world. Because while the rest of the Central Division might be riding high knowing that Nathan MacKinnon is down a running mate, the Minnesota Wild have to take care of their own business before celebrating the downfall of a rival.
The Wild got a look into the Dark Timeline, one where they don't sign Kirill Kaprizov to a mega-extension and have to sell off the final year of an MVP-caliber winger before losing him for nothing. And if the Avs are any indication, that future isn't pretty.
I'm not dunking on Colorado GM Joe Sakic. He's got a Stanley Cup Ring, and he's no fool. His trade history is riddled with teams that he robbed along the way. Sakic once stole top-pair defender Devon Toews for a pair of second-round picks. Matt Duchene wanted out of town, and he turned him into Bowen Byram and Sam Girard. He also had the sense not to trade loose change for Nazem Kadri but the guts to let him walk and not sign him to a poison-pill contract.
So, if anyone's getting a haul for 35 games of Rantanen, it's him. And looking at what came back... it's uninspiring. Your mileage may vary on Martin Necas, the principal return. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Necas has 68 goals and 179 points in 209 games. That's strong production, and his 55 points (16 goals) in his first 50 games tracked for a career year.
But while Necas is indisputably a top-six winger, his overall game doesn't measure up to his counting stats. During that same time, Rantanen put up 12.3 Standings Points Above Replacement for Colorado, which puts him 32nd among all skaters in the NHL. That's a borderline MVP-type of talent. You'll have to look all the way down at 146th to find Necas and his 6.9 SPAR.
That's a massive drop-off in talent, and while future-focused assets could level the playing field for Colorado... they didn't get much in the way of those, either. Colorado landed Jack Drury, a defense-first, 24-year-old center, a second-round pick, and a fourth-round pick. Again, your mileage may vary, but this doesn't look much better than rolling the dice with Rantanen and going for their second Cup in the last year of MacKinnon's 20s.
Now, we don't have much reason to panic that Kaprizov has a foot out the door. The Avalanche apparently committed to not hitting a price point in Leon Draisaitl's stratosphere -- in the range of $14 million. Wild owner Craig Leipold has affirmed a commitment not to be outspent on Kaprizov so that part of the equation appears solid.
But if a deal doesn't materialize, then the Wild might be in a situation every bit as sticky as the Avs just were. Theoretically, Minnesota could have an advantage by moving early and trading Kaprizov before the season to get a bigger return based on an extra 45 games or so of their MVP-level winger.
On the other hand, Rantanen possessed a nine-team no-trade list, allowing Colorado the leverage to negotiate with multiple teams. Kaprizov possesses a full no-move clause that has already kicked in, allowing him to dictate his landing spot. Unless Kaprizov would be willing to go to multiple potential bidders, that drives the return of a trade way down.
So there's no reason to think a Kaprizov trade will land significantly more than what the Avs just got for Rantanen. The Wild might get a top-six forward or a top-four defenseman (though Minnesota's blueline is loaded when healthy), a depth forward, a couple of non-premium picks, and a bit of extra money to throw around on the free-agent market.
Ironically, the only way to break out of that scenario is if Minnesota's worst nightmare comes to life: Kaprizov wants to go to the Chicago Blackhawks. As gross as it'd feel to send an MVP to a Division Rival, the Blackhawks don't have a Martin Necas to offer -- a relatively young, top-six forward. The only way to get value out of a team like them would be to target a prospect, with the dream perhaps being Mounds View native and current Minnesota Gophers speedster Oliver Moore.
Even then, that amounts to a lottery ticket for a player who's been 40 goals in the bank. There's simply no winning a trade like that. Colorado just found it out, and if there was anyone out there silly enough to believe the Wild could sell high and invest in the future by trading Kaprizov, they just got a reality check. It's a Kaprizov Extension or Bust.
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