The Buffalo Sabres Won't Be the Wild's Savior At Center

The Minnesota Wild look like they're in a bit of a jam.

They want to upgrade the center position this offseason and will set out to do so in a market where centers aren't exactly plentiful. Listening to insiders, Brock Nelson is the odds-on favorite to land in Minnesota, with potential fits like Sam Bennett perhaps pricing himself out of Minnesota's range, and few trade targets in sight.

In their recent mailbag, The Athletic's Michael Russo and Joe Smith summarily shut down virtually every trade option.

• Dylan Larkin? It's a call that's likely to get Bill Guerin laughed off the phone.
• Sidney Crosby? Not unless the Wild can somehow trade for Nathan MacKinnon, too.
• Elias Pettersson? As much as it makes sense to Hockey Wilderness, nope.

So, where's the opportunity to avoid a weak free agent class? Russo offers the State of Hockey one nugget of hope:

If I’m the Wild and planning to trade [Marco] Rossi, I’d go hard after Buffalo’s JJ Peterka or Tage Thompson. ... Other than a Nelson pursuit, I just really believe trying to trade for an impact center like Peterka or Thompson makes sense.

That sounds good. Those are two impact players. Peterka is 23 and is coming off a 27-goal, 68-point season, tied for second on the team. Thompson, in particular, could be Bill Guerin's biggest fantasy. And "biggest" is literal. A 6-foot-6 power center with two 40-goal seasons? That'd solve a lot of what the Wild's front office feels they lack.

Should we expect Guerin to dust off that red telephone with a direct line to Buffalo? The one Chuck Fletcher once used to bring in Jason Pominville, Matt Moulson, and Chris Stewart?

It's hard to be optimistic that the fix at center lies there.

Don't get us wrong, Peterka is a solid player who'd offer a strong shot at the wing. But that's the rub, there: at the wing. Peterka is 23, has played in 238 NHL games, and he's simply not a center. Matt Boldy won more faceoffs last year (58) than Peterka has taken during his entire career (36). He's slower than Rossi, for example, which likely won't help if adding team speed is the goal.

So, let's take out Peterka as a solution at center. On the other hand, Thompson would be a strong addition for Minnesota. He brings elite size and strong speed for that size (his top speed was in the top 25% of the league, per NHL Edge). He also may have a claim for the best shot in the NHL -- it's both fast (topping out at 106 miles per hour) and he fires it often (242 shots on goal last season, 18th in the NHL). 

Assuming Rossi is gone, Thompson and Joel Eriksson Ek would form an imposing 1-2 punch down the middle. Opponents won't be able to move Thompson and Eriksson Ek off the puck, and they're a force at the net-front, even though Thompson has more long-range shooting ability than Eriksson Ek.

Unfortunately, it's also time to dismiss this option. It's simply too difficult to see a path that leads Thompson to Minnesota.

For one, Thompson doesn't fit the mold of a player who gets traded, even from perpetually bad teams like the Sabres. He doesn't turn 28 until October, so he's still reasonably in his prime for the foreseeable future. Thompson also has four years remaining on his contract, which has him locked in on a bargain $7.14 million AAV.

The length of the contract is a huge factor. When a struggling team has a pending UFA, sure, they're on the block. However, a team has to be preparing for a full-on rebuild to consider moving a 27-year-old star with four years remaining. Especially in Buffalo, which not only historically struggles to attract free agent talent, but also finished second in a recent players' poll as the first team NHLers slap on a no-trade list.

Besides, it's not like Buffalo's contention window is so far out of reach that they'd want to stomach another rebuild. They've complemented Thompson with a stacked blueline that includes Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Bowen Byram. They've got a wealth of former first-round picks in Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, and Jiri Kulich, who should all expect to see grow.

Under ordinary circumstances -- as in, unless Thompson makes a ton of noise about not wanting to be in Buffalo -- the Sabres have no real incentive to trade him.

However, none of those things is the biggest hurdle to getting Thompson to Minnesota.

That would be Kevyn Adams. Or specifically, his job security. 

The Sabres installed Adams as general manager in 2020, and he hasn't made the playoffs in five seasons. Buffalo brought him back for next season, but GMs don't usually get much more rope than that without seeing results. It's go-time for Adams to show that the team he's built for a half-decade can make the postseason.

Moving Thompson is a rebuilding move, even if it means getting a player like Rossi and more back for him. Adams can't sell rebuilding to Sabres fans, who've gone 14 years without a playoff appearance. It's possible that going to ownership with the idea to trade Buffalo's 27-year-old, 40-goal-scoring unicorn of a center might as well be a resignation letter.

It's hard enough to imagine a new GM in Buffalo wanting to trade Thompson. But with Adams likely GM-ing for his job, those odds drop from "low" to "near-zero." Unless there's something major brewing behind the scenes we don't know about, the Wild will probably have to look elsewhere for their center help.