Taking the Temperature On Filip Gustavsson's Trade Value

I would suggest that Evolving Hockey's estimated salary is off. Not just on Goose2, but on a lot of players. I'm not sure what their criteria is, but they've got salaries way out of order with this particular salary cap. 

I think a 2 yr. deal for about half of that is where Goose2 will be signed. I also believe he'll get a better reward at the end of that period should he perform near the levels he did this year.

Here's the thing with him, 39 games is a pretty small sample size. He didn't even play half of the Wild's regular season games. You cannot expect a $3.88m salary with that kind of playing time. He also was a project early on, but once fixed was very reliable. 

If you're looking at what his trade value might be, I'd suggest that it will be less than the average mainly because of the 39 games. He needs a couple more seasons of stellar play before he's considered elite. We essentially took him off a scrap heap and reclaimed him. 

What would Goose2 do to stay here? This situation is best for him going forward because of the structure. He needs a team like us and we need a goalie like him. His agent is very aware of our cap situation, and that's why handshakes can be the best for both sides. Guerin has a track record of following through on handshake promises. Now, all of that goes out the window if Gus's agent goes full Talbot agent. All of these negotiations will be private. 

If you're the Wild, making financial mistakes cannot happen in these next 2 seasons. $3.88m is far too risky. Goose2 will get qualified at a very low number. He doesn't have a track record to win much in arbitration. His best bet is to take less now and get more later. He'll have to bet on himself. He'll get a nice % raise, but still be underpaid. That's the life of an up and coming star. It will be in his best interest to also spend another year with Fleury. Fleury's been through almost anything a goaltender can go through. Learning from his stories can set him up for a long and successful career.

Looking at the returns for what we would get for Gus Bus on the market, there is no way we let him walk and let Fleury take over the crease. He is only an RFA this year so they can still take him to arbitration if necessary and even if someone does offer sheet him we still get back the second which was the average return anyway. 

I thought Gus Bus would be worth more on the open market but as the writer indicates, goalies are usually undervalued in terms of salary. Adding to this is the short sample size of Gus Bus being good. His numbers in Ottawa were anything but impressive, leaving his career stat line still lacking.

I think Guerin will find a way to get this one done around the 3M mark with a handshake for a larger raise down the road. I am very biased about Gus Bus, but I don't see how letting him walk away will be beneficial for any party involved.

We are beating this into the ground too much. Sign Gus and let the chips fall where they may. $3.8 X 2, $3.5 X 3, I don't care, GET IT DONE!

There's a lot of room to move salary and unneeded baggage. We need goaltending next year, not another 2nd that we're not gonna see for 5 years.

Or, dump Gus and be mediocre and then we all need to grin and bare it next year, not my option.

Search Suter on Twitter right now, it’ll totally make your night! Dallas fans hate him now too.

Okay, that one was from MN, but it cracked me up. One more, out of the literally hundreds of whining pissed Dallas fans on Twitter…

Gotta love it!

21 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

You cannot expect a $3.88m salary with that kind of playing time. He also was a project early on, but once fixed was very reliable.

Perhaps a 2 year contract at a $5.5M total, which is $2.75M per year.

That's about half way between Foligno and Middleton in salary per year. Those are both quality veterans, and the $2.75M per year is a very solid salary for a guy who's had just 1 great season playing less than half the games.

Trading Zuccarello while retaining half his cap hit might be the easiest way to open up some additional cap space, assuming they don't look at moving captain Spurgeon.

Feels like someone the Wild could use might need to be moved. Looking a bit deeper, however, perhaps it might be possible to give someone Goligoski with a late round draft pick to open up some cap space, even if the Wild needed to retain a portion of Goligoski's cap hit. Guerin might need to get creative.

2 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Perhaps a 2 year contract at a $5.5M total, which is $2.75M per year.

That's about half way between Foligno and Middleton in salary per year. Those are both quality veterans, and the $2.75M per year is a very solid salary for a guy who's had just 1 great season playing less than half the games.

Honestly, I believe even that is too expensive for the player. And, from my perspective, this is not because of our cap restraints, this is about the player/position.

On the + side, Goose2 offers:

1. Youth in goaltending meaning likely less injuries, especially pulled muscles.
2. He was a high draft pick, best European goalie in his draft class.
3. Stellar year where, at times, he looked elite. 
4. This is subjective, but similar style and training to The Wall

But, there is also a - side:

1. His body of work is only 39 games strong in a Wild uniform.
2. His previous stints with Ottawa were not stellar, and the 2nd season was well below average.
3. Goose2 is not yet 25. With goalies, this is the age where they start to be useful.
4. Goalies tend to be underappreciated in salary, especially 1Bs. 
5. We simply don't know if he can even handle 50+ games. That unknown is a pretty big factor.

Goose2 is not going to bring about a decent return on the trade front. The only shot we have is if someone offersheets him for $4.3m+, which with this track record looks like a huge mistake/swing at a homerun. 

From the looks of things, the NHLPA has decided they don't really want to change anything, meaning, the cap is likely only going up $1-1.5m this coming year as the escrow is paid off. That translates to not a lot of money available in the league, which means low market value. 

Should Goose2 choose arbitration, I think he will probably lose, and, the Wild could choose a 2 yr. deal, not a 1 yr. deal. Look at Kahkonen's contract here. That is likely a similar scenario for Goose2's new deal. He gets a 1-way deal, he gets a raise, and we will see if film has found any weaknesses to his game. Prior to this season, there simply wasn't a lot to go on. 

We do know this: Goose2 played pretty well against the Stars in the playoffs. But, he did not play well enough to best Oettinger. Using comparables of Hart, Oettinger, or Knight are not really like kind comparables. A comparable with Kahkonen is, and look at how Kahkonen was given a chance to challenge journeyman 'tender Reimer for the starting spot, and pretty much failed. We need to see what Goose2 can do as a 1A before throwing a bunch of money his way. 

Also, more money puts more pressure on the player. It's especially true when the $15m boulders are hanging over the organization. I'd rather he had a career here than a new contract. He's got 10-12 years to get his if he can keep performing.

On 5/29/2023 at 11:29 AM, mnfaninnc said:

What would Goose2 do to stay here? This situation is best for him going forward because of the structure. He needs a team like us and we need a goalie like him.

We've discussed this in the past and both agreed.  MN is a goalie friendly team and Goose2 would be wise to stay put.  His value will increase and he will get ice time with solid results.  

I sure would like to see MAF retire or get traded.  While I believe he is a great teammate and has had a stellar career... his 3.5M contract is a lot for the Wild to handle.  Your 2.75M a year and Fleury retiring would be perfect.  The Wild can either keep Hunter Jones as the backup or bring up the Wall.  If they can pull that off the Wild actually gain cap space and likely increase their 23-24 season potential.

I sure would like to see the Wild find a way to keep Dumba.

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

The Wild can either keep Hunter Jones as the backup or bring up the Wall.  If they can pull that off the Wild actually gain cap space and likely increase their 23-24 season potential.

I'll give you that goalies are weird, but how weird would it be to have Hunter Jones go from the ECHL to the NHL? Jones still has to put washers into his game to hold off the leaks. 

I would be very uncomfortable at $2.75m, I'd want the season replicated before I could sign off on a contract like that. I'm thinking more in the lines of $1.5m. It's not really saying a "prove it" deal, it's more like saying you had a nice season as a backup, let's see if you can handle a larger workload? That is from both a health standpoint and a results standpoint.

I'd also like to mention that I believe Fleury is a better teammate than Talbot was for Kahkonen. Talbot knew he was better, and I think he made sure Kahkonen knew it too. Fleury, on the other hand, has a track record of really helping his underlings get better. From a transition standpoint, I'd like to still have Fleury in the room and playing backup. To gain $, I'd rather see Goligoski retire, something he should be thinking very strongly about based upon how last season went for him. He clearly took 2 steps back.

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

I would be very uncomfortable at $2.75m, I'd want the season replicated before I could sign off on a contract like that. I'm thinking more in the lines of $1.5m. It's not really saying a "prove it" deal, it's more like saying you had a nice season as a backup, let's see if you can handle a larger workload? That is from both a health standpoint and a results standpoint.

While $2.75M might be more than you are comfortable with, anything less than $2M would really be a surprise.

There are 35 NHL goalies making at least $2M per season right now, so if you assume Gustavsson is going to be the #1 goalie, as most would, I cannot see him getting less than that. He just posted a better season than most of the goalies who are in the $1.8-$2.75M range have ever posted.

There are very few goalies(just 3) who are making more than $1M and aren't making at least $1.8M, and with the modest salary cap bump, I cannot see his agent comfortable with anything less than $2M.

I understand it's unlikely he will replicate the .931 save percentage each year, but his draft position and solid size/technique seem to indicate he's worth at least $2M per year. I suspect it will take a little more than that to sign him for 2 years, which is what the Wild need to do in order to get to the other side of cap hell.

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Fleury, on the other hand, has a track record of really helping his underlings get better. 

I can't argue with you there.  Fleury has been a fantastic mentor.

Sign Gus for $1.75M ... wow... That would be amazing.... I think he signs for $2.75M minimum.... and at that price I would rather run with Fleury and say goodbye to Gus.  Let Fleury mentor Hunter or the Wall.  Maybe Fleury can do for them what he has done for the others...including Gus.

Convincing Goligoski to retire clears $2M but also means we need another player.   I didn't think Goligoski played as bad as you say.  No, he is not the player he was.. but certainly better than Addison.  I didn't mind him as our 7th D.   If we cut him I really hope it is to sign Dumba.

17 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

There are 35 NHL goalies making at least $2M per season right now, so if you assume Gustavsson is going to be the #1 goalie, as most would, I cannot see him getting less than that. He just posted a better season than most of the goalies who are in the $1.8-$2.75M range have ever posted.

This may be true, but we're talking about a goalie with a career high of 39 appearances in a season in the N. We're not even talking about a journeyman veteran goalie, we're talking about a guy who just got done with his ELC and is starting to enter into his impact years.

In this scenario, I am not assuming that Goose2 is going to be my #1, I'm suggesting that they try him out as #1A, where they up his workload to around 50 games. Let's see how that goes for him.

Let's face it, Goose2 had a great season last season in his role. But it was a limited role. He has 60 career starts. One of those seasons was as an injury call up. The next season, as a backup was a disaster. Early on last season, he had a lot to work on. He got hot the 2nd half of the season. Was it a hot streak or was it him playing to his potential? That's what a #1A season will find out.

I'd be ok with a 1 year deal, as we have more salary dropping off after the upcoming season and our prospects will be 1 year closer to being on the team with their inexpensive deals. But I'm thinking a 2 year $3.25m deal is both fair to the team and the player. That would be $1.5m, $1.75m. His qualifying offer is somewhere around $1m. 

18 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'm thinking a 2 year $3.25m deal is both fair to the team and the player. That would be $1.5m, $1.75m. His qualifying offer is somewhere around $1m. 

He might be able to get an offer at $3M for 1 season elsewhere. I don't think you can get him to sign back by low-balling him. If I'm one of the teams outside of the playoffs, I'm looking at a 2nd round pick who just finished the season with the 2nd best save% in the league. I'm not going to hesitate to offer him $2.5M for 1 season, and see if he builds upon that.

If you include the playoffs, where he had a .921 save%, that's 44 games(42 starts) of action where he was above a .920 save%. Fleury, with the same team, was below a .910 save percentage(and abysmal in the playoffs). That's 46 starts to 42 starts, when including playoffs.

I imagine Fleury is still a respected name, so when you have a goalie that's getting about equal work who is completely outplaying him, other teams might notice. I see that and I'm thinking I'd want him starting 48+ games for my team.  From 1/1/23 forward, Gustavsson was getting more starts--he had taken over as 1A and was in the top half of goalies in wins over that time.

I think the best the Wild could hope for is around $4M over 2 seasons, but they might need to be at $4.5+. If they just give the qualifying offer, and then try to low-ball him into a contract below $2M, they'll likely end up paying more than they are comfortable with...if they match. If I'm his agent, and they came in below $2M, I'd simply tell the Wild that he'll be looking to sign elsewhere.

He's free to sign anywhere and while he may be "unproven", there are plenty of teams who might be looking to roll the dice on a player with his history. Since 2020, he has 1 bad season that had just 18 games, and one awful stretch of 12 games. Do I focus on those 12 games or the upside of the other 50+ starts?

13 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

He's free to sign anywhere and while he may be "unproven", there are plenty of teams who might be looking to roll the dice on a player with his history. Since 2020, he has 1 bad season that had just 18 games, and one awful stretch of 12 games. Do I focus on those 12 games or the upside of the other 50+ starts?

Of course you focus on the 50+ starts from a development perspective. But, from a financial perspective and what a player has earned over the course of his ELC, he hasn't earned that contract yet. 

Let's look at it another way, last year was essentially his rookie year. He played real well especially down the stretch. As for the way Guerin thinks, there was 1 other player who had a good run, and we saw how he felt about it (though I think some of that was manufactured to protect the player). 

And, that's why you've got a handshake deal with the agent for the next time you need to negotiate. Show that you can handle the 50+ starts and you'll get paid. 

What happens if Gustavsson has a couple of holes that teams find on film over the summer and he doesn't perform like this year? What happens if he has a year like '21? Some goalies are every other year goalies. 

This is why college grads usually don't get hired out of school to become CEOs. They go into lower level positions and get experience and work their way up. They also don't go from the lower level to CEO, they've got to move up with more responsibility little by little. Same with the military, Westpoint grads don't move into a General's responsibility out of school. They have to move through the ranks showing they can handle increased responsibility.

If you give a kid, and at 24 he really is just a kid, a large contract when he's unproven, many times they will put too much pressure on themselves to perform. Goose2 could feel like he'd need to lead the league in shutouts or something. 

We gave Boldy a $7m contract with roughly 80 games under his belt. I thought he came out playing better after that, believing he now belonged as a top player. But, as the games mounted, so did his scoring slump. $1.5m is plenty of money for a young 24-25 yr. old to live on as he gains experience. It also keeps him hungry and working hard to improve. It's not low balling, it's bringing him along now into a middle management role.

We have $15m in dead cap for the next 2 seasons. That is not Goose2's problem, it is Guerin's. However, goalies, while undervalued financially, do take on the most responsibility on the ice. That is a heavy yoke around their necks. The players also know there is a $15m dead cap weight on the club. If you have a $4m contract as the lead goalie, and you don't perform, any young kid will feel that weight heavier and heavier. If he doesn't perform, the fans will immediately turn on him too, Huckleberry, you know we will do this.

Also, which teams are looking for a goalie and willing to pay over $3m for an unproven guy? Are they a better fit for Goose2? He's already experienced a team that didn't believe in him, and had concluded he was likely going back to Sweden after this season. Does he want to go through that again? While these guys are highly trained athletes, Swedish culture is not the same as culture here where high bid wins. We need to think like a Swede when it comes to signing him.

22 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

I sure would like to see MAF retire or get traded.  While I believe he is a great teammate and has had a stellar career... his 3.5M contract is a lot for the Wild to handle.  Your 2.75M a year and Fleury retiring would be perfect.  The Wild can either keep Hunter Jones as the backup or bring up the Wall.  If they can pull that off the Wild actually gain cap space and likely increase their 23-24 season potential.

I know the rules for players on 35+ contracts changed in 2020, but would Fleury's cap hit come off the books if he retired? I can't remember the specifics of the 35+ rule.

I don't know if the Wild want to go into next season with two unproven young goalies. It could work great or it could bomb. Gus showed he has potential in a very small sample size. The Wall, while having the most potential of everyone, would still be a rookie who needed to become acclimated to the NHL game. Jones would be a complete wildcard. He has middling stats in the A and East Coast leagues. I really think having Fleury would be a positive. Whether it's in a tandem with Gus or Wall, the impact he has on his younger goalie partners is tremendous. I highly doubt the Wild would want to go into next season with unproven guys in net with all the other issues they have to fix. The goaltending isn't broken and they don't need to fix it. Just shuffle some pieces. 

8 hours ago, CammieBuckeye29 said:

I know the rules for players on 35+ contracts changed in 2020, but would Fleury's cap hit come off the books if he retired? I can't remember the specifics of the 35+ rule.

Yes, for both Goose and Fleury. The criteria is that no signing bonus or other bonuses were in the contract, and, the contract was evenly split such as $2m + $2m, or $3.5m + $3.5m.

20 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

If you have a $4m contract as the lead goalie, and you don't perform, any young kid will feel that weight heavier and heavier.

I indicated $4M over 2 seasons, which I consider a $2M contract level. Fleury is at $3.5M.  I am hearing what you are saying, I'm only indicating that there are only a few goalies in the entire NHL at the contract level you are suggesting, and I don't believe those guys have come close to a season where they were 2nd in the NHL in save percentage or were being used as the #1 goalie in the playoffs.

There are likely a dozen teams looking for improvement in their goalie room who might go after a goalie with his history, at least on a larger 1 year contract.

I'm not even saying that Gustavsson himself will push for a contract that high, but his agent wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't push for at least $2M minimum because that is the minimum that goalies are paid to be the starter.

I also understand what you are saying regarding goalie volatility in their play. Fleury was often up and down from season to season. He was an above average goalie, but not in the elite category for me. He was often in good situations for team success.

While I understand Gus may not perform at the level he just did, I'd like to see Gustavsson back with the Wild, and I suspect that will not happen on a contract below $2M per season, whether that's 1 year or 2 years. His agent should get him at least that amount to sign somewhere. Not every team is as cash strapped as the Wild and most teams could use an upgrade in their goalie depth. A team like Detroit may want to add him to compete with Husso.

I doubt GMBG would low-ball Gustafvsson. I expect a fair offer or a bit of a bonus cushion above his value/comps.

Having Gus and Wallstedt as a duo going forward makes sense.

I would like to see GMBG try to send Fleury back to Pittsburgh. Perhaps for future considerations to open up cap. Of course, it wouldn't hurt to keep Fleury around and see where things are at around the deadline. If Fleury is backing up 1A Gus, perhaps there's a different situation then??? Sending him out just to have money available isn't too great but if there was a trade or player the Wild wanted to sign, this might be worthwhile.

As of now, I see the Wild using this year to test young players and see what options are realistic going forward and if the Wild is a playoff team? After Foligno, Zucccarrelllo, and Fleury drop off the books the Wild will have some holes already filled or at least evaluated based on what options the Wild have internally. The money left after those contracts are gone will allow them to take care of business until the penalties are done. Then go after Draisaitl for 25-26 if the Wild still haven't got their center situation solved.

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I indicated $4M over 2 seasons, which I consider a $2M contract level.

Sorry, I misunderstood this part, was thinking $4m/yr.

29 minutes ago, Protec said:

Then go after Draisaitl for 25-26 if the Wild still haven't got their center situation solved.

I'm on board with the Draisaitl strategy. I do think it will be hard to get him as the cap likely goes up dramatically in '24. However, Edmonton probably still is in cap trouble even with the increase. 

And, of course, Draisaitl might want to be a #1C somewhere? 

Quote

Having Gus and Wallstedt as a duo going forward makes sense.

This is also my position, but I don't think The Wall is ready for the bright lights yet. He might be ready by the TDL, though. I'm hoping he gets heavy usage in Iowa, not the split time like happened this season. 

1 hour ago, Protec said:

Then go after Draisaitl for 25-26 if the Wild still haven't got their center situation solved.

I bet Edmonton will put themselves into a position to where they cannot afford Draisaitl in 25-26.  They already have a number of bad contracts and absolutely have to shoot for the moon in the next two years to go for a cup run.

^^^

Two years is a long time. Draisaitl would be a UFA but lots could happen before then. I think that GMBG's options at that point should be pretty okay to go after a good center in free agency.