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  • How Close Are the Wild To Being True Stanley Cup Contenders?

    Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-USA Today Sports
    Luke Sims

    By Luke Sims -

    The Athletic did a study into the common themes that every Stanley Cup Champion has had. It’s not perfect but in general, teams tend to have the following when it comes to roster makeup. 

    • An elite center who is among the best in the league 
    • An elite winger who is among the best in the league 
    • Two more top-line wingers to play in the top six
    • A top-line center to play behind your otherworldly center
    • Two more very good top-six players to play in the middle six
    • An elite two-way No. 1 defenseman 
    • Another No. 1 caliber defenseman to play behind your first one
    • Another top-pair defenseman to put with one of the other top-pairing guys
    • Another high-end defenseman who can be effective on the third pair
    • A goalie who is among the best in the league or at least among the top 10

    These are more or less all the requirements for building a Stanley Cup champion. You do not need to have all of these pieces in place but the more you do have, the better. 

    This is a breakdown of what the Wild have at the moment.

    Forwards

    Elite Center - ???
    Top-Line Center - Joel Eriksson Ek
    Elite Winger - Kirill Kaprizov 
    Top-Line Winger - Matt Boldy
    Top-Line Winger - ???
    Top-Six Forward - Mats Zuccarello
    Top-Six Forward - Marcus Johansson

    Defensemen

    Elite Defenseman -  ???
    No. 1 Defenseman - Jared Spurgeon
    Top-Pair Defenseman - Jonas Brodin
    Top-Pair Defenseman - ???

    Goalies

    Elite Goalie - Filip Gustavsson

    After re-signing Johansson, they can plug him in as a second top-six forward. Eriksson Ek fills the role of top-line center to play behind the TBA elite center. Kaprizov is the superstar winger, and Boldy is the top-line winger. Zuccarello can still play up to that level as long as he is with Kaprizov. We saw Father Time catch up to him a little bit at the tail end of this past season, so we can see this potentially becoming an issue. 

    Spurgeon is a damn good blueliner. But is he among the best in the NHL entering his age-34 season? Probably not. Brodin can play on any team's top pair, and he’s among the best in the show at shutting down opposing threats. Brodin would have no problem cracking any team's top four, and his smooth style of play should translate as he gets older. Those two pillars can be penciled in for at least the next couple of years. 

    Assuming the Wild can re-sign him to a reasonable dollar amount, Gustavsson will be the starting goaltender next season. Marc-Andre Fleury spoke about how he wants to come back to Minnesota, even if he’s in the backup role. For the time being, as long as Gustavsson's play wasn't a fluke this year, I’d consider him to be a top-of-the-line goaltender. Look at the stats and the charts, all of it. Filip Gustavsson was an elite puck-stopper for the Minnesota Wild this past year. 

    So the Wild are still missing: 

    • Elite Center 
    • Top-Line Winger 
    • Elite Defenseman 
    • Top-Pair Defenseman 

    Shocker, the Wild need a top-line center. Yes. We’ve heard it all before. That's not a new problem. Elite complete two-way defensemen are hard to come by, this will be a hurdle Minnesota must overcome. As for the top-line winger, top-pair defenseman and maybe even, *gasp* the elite center, the Wild are in luck. They have solutions to many of these problems. 

    Marco Rossi is Minnesota's center prospect. He could play a role in the top-6 and thrive if they give him the opportunity. Put him alongside Kaprizov and watch the sparks fly. He may not be a point-per-game player right away like Boldy and Kaprizov were. But he still could get there with patience. 

    The Wild have a plethora of intriguing options to fill in at the top-line winger spot. Adam Beckman, Sammy Walker, Liam Ohgren, and Danila Yurov. Pick your favorite. Not all of these guys will hit their full potential and make an impact in the NHL. But if they get legitimate shots to develop in North America, each has skills that could fulfill that top-line winger slot. 

    Beckman had a great year with the Iowa Wild and looks poised to take the next step given the right opportunity. Walker is going to showcase his talents for Team USA at the IIHF World Championships and was one of Iowa’s most productive forwards. He didn’t look out of place in the few NHL games he played, either. 

    Ohgren absolutely lit up Allsvenskan, having a monster postseason (13 points in 17 games) and playing on his team's top line. Ohgren's postseason point totals were among the best in the league. Yurov was dominant against lesser competition in Russia. When he got on the ice for his KHL team, he was highly effective. However, Yurov rarely got to play because of the KHL’s pressure on young NHL prospects to not leave Russia. 

    While I don’t think that Brock Faber will be a truly elite defenseman, he’s legit. He showed how good he was in his limited sample size with the Wild in the playoffs. He was arguably the best defenseman they had out on the ice. Faber is slated to play a top-four role this upcoming season. Assuming the Spurgeon and Middelton pair stays intact, Faber and Brodin would form one of the gnarliest shutdown pairs in the league.

    So the only thing that the Wild lack and have no true plan for is the Elite, the best of the best defenseman. While prospects like Carson Lambos, Dameon Hunt, and David Spacek are all promising, it’s unlikely any of them blossom into an elite defenseman. Calen Addison is too one-dimensional to really thrive in the role of an anchoring defenseman. Addison is good at what he does and should be playing for Minnesota, but he’s not the one to check that box. 

    The Wild may have to be aggressive and try to acquire their top defenseman from another organization. If they don’t get lucky and hit a home run in the draft, their only hope is the trade or free agent route. 

    Teams like the Colorado Avalanche, Ottawa Senators, and Vegas Golden Knights all went after their guys through trades or free agency. Colorado was aggressive and made a move for Devon Toews. That worked out swimmingly. Ottawa swung a trade for Jakob Chychrun, and he could be a pillar of their defense for many years. Vegas went out and signed Alex Pietrangelo to help lead their defensive effort. Their aggressive moves have helped their respective teams bolster their defense and put another piece in the Stanley Cup puzzle. 

    Just one catch, though. There are not a lot of game-changing defensemen available in free agency this year, and Minnesota would not have the money even if there were. The cap-strapped Wild also have minimal options on the trade market because the most impact top defenseman costs a pretty penny. 

    The Wild are in an okay spot. There are teams that have a lot less than they do. But with so many prospects, anything can happen. Just be patient with this team. They may lose some of the guys they have filling out the list now but no worries, the in-house options are there to try and check the boxes off for the Wild. 

    All stats and data via Natural Stat Trick and HockeyDB.

    By Luke Sims

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    Backwoodsbob

    With the buyout/cap hit hovering overhead, I think it's time to bite the bullet and start bringing in our prospects and let them play and develop to the NHL standards.

    Once the buyout is over the Wild should be in good position to bring in some great free agents and also have more in the prospect pool.

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    Beast

    Beast 207

    Posted (edited)

    I don’t agree that Ek is a top line center or that Zuccarello and Johansson are top 6 forwards on a true Cup contender.

    Ek is a very good player.  But, I think he lacks the high-end skill.  He’s the perfect 2nd-3rd line center.  Big body.  Net front presence.  One of the best in terms of defending the other teams top line (which means you don’t necessarily want to reply him with your top scoring line).

    Zuccarello looked good in the playoffs at times, but was terrible for a big stretch of the regular season.  He’s not getting any younger, and seems to be a passenger or Kaprisov’s more than actually driving any play himself.

    Johansson was a no show in the playoffs, and is a career long mediocre player.  His speed seemed to make a difference early in the series until Dallas made some adjustments and he disappeared.  He’s also not getting any younger.  I’ll take on this team for his price tag, for sure.  But, He’s just not a top 6 guy on a Cup team unless you have some heavy weights around him (which we don’t).

    Is Kaprisov an elite player, or just a really good one?  After no showing in 2 of the last 3 playoff series, I think that’s a fair question.  We can complain all we want about the refs screwing him and not getting calls.  But, that is what it is.

    We’re just not anywhere near a Cup right now.  

    Edited by Beast
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    Protec

    The Wild missed on Lundell who tonight got the assist on the GWG for FL.

    The Wild missed on Jarvis who had a goal and assist in a loss to NJ.

    The Wild missed on Mercer who had three assists in the win against Carolina.

    The Wild aren't contenders cause they've failed to get NHL players on their roster from the 1st round of the draft. They got cap constraints that makes it way more difficult to gain top talent any other way.

    Personally, I think the 2020 draft blunder was really significant along with XGMCF and XGMPF screw ups. That's why the Wild are forced to find decent talent from mid-level veterans. Had the Wild got Lundell there would be more depth at center. Had they got Jarvis, the PK would be fire plus added scoring. Jarvis has two shorties just this series I believe. Had the Wild got Mercer they could have a linemate for Boldy and not need 1-2M veterans so badly.

    Hey at least we got a little Euro finesse guy in the AHL...

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    Will D. Ness
    18 hours ago, Beast said:

    I don’t agree that Ek is a top line center or that Zuccarello and Johansson are top 6 forwards on a true Cup contender.

    Ek is a very good player.  But, I think he lacks the high-end skill.  He’s the perfect 2nd-3rd line center.  Big body.  Net front presence.  One of the best in terms of defending the other teams top line (which means you don’t necessarily want to reply him with your top scoring line).

    I think Ek might be a top line center, but not in the mold of McDavid or McKinnon but more in the mold of a Getzlaf or Kopitar.  Ek is definitely more of a shut down/forechecking center and less of a hands/puck handling center,  but is one of the best of the former like you say.  

    The GREEF line was epic last year and I think that is the type of line that Ek should center.  Don't call it a top line, but a top line killer, which in essence is just as important in a championship building line as the scoring line.

    We need another center with KK97 to be our top scoring line.  Rossi HAS to be that guy for us.

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    Protec

    It's a topic nobody ever seems to wanna touch but Rossi had a heart injury. Period. Unfortunate, yes. An indictment of his character or skill, absolutely not. Serious consideration for the organization, absolutely. 

    I don't care what anyone believes, what myocarditis comes from. There's debate and conjecture on that, but the bottom line is that the Wild selected him and he hasn't been ready to play in the NHL let alone be a top mini-center who can battle the Kopitars, O'Reillys, and Thachuks of the league. I.e. top centers or hard-nosed players in the NHL are not intimidated or worried about what little Euro guys are gonna do against them.

    The Wild can wait, but I don't think it's gonna happen fellas. Rossi is not going to morph into the big, skilled, tough center like Ek or a fast goal scoring center like Jeff Carter, or a dynamic play driver like Barzal. He's just not that kind of player. Never was...

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    TCMooch

    Here is my assessment without the Wild-colored glasses on:

    Forwards

    Elite Center - ???
    Top-Line Center - ???
    Elite Winger - ???
    Top-Line Winger - Kirill Kaprizov 
    Top-Line Winger - ???
    Top-Six Forward - Mats Zuccarello
    Top-Six Forward - Joel Eriksson Ek

    From a points production standpoint, Kaprizov isn't elite until he is top 15 in points per game. He is 21st. If he's elite then so is Alex Tuch (24th).

    JEE IS NOT a top line center. He doesn't do near enough offensively to be one.

     

    Defensemen

    Elite Defenseman -  ???
    No. 1 Defenseman - Jared Spurgeon
    Top-Pair Defenseman - Jonas Brodin
    Top-Pair Defenseman - ???

    I think this is a fair assessment.

    Goalies

    Elite Goalie - Filip Gustavsson*

    I want to see at least another season at him playing more than half the regular season games before I consider him Elite. Right now I consider him a #1 goalie but I wouldn't put him in an elite category which to me means he's a top 5 goalie in the league.

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    mnfaninnc

    TC, I think you've got a decent look, but I do question the defensemen area.

    For the forwards, we have a very good 2nd line center, and I believe an elite winger in Kaprizov. Boldy is in the top line winger category too. As for top 6 forwards, due to hitting the age wall, I think Zuccarello has to be taken off the list.

    For the defenders, I'd say we don't really have an elite defender, nor a true #1. If you look at Spurgeon's playing history, he produces as a top pairing in the regular season, but fades to a 2nd pairing guy in the playoffs. This is where the sum of the group is better than it's parts. 

    At goalie, Goose2 has the potential to be elite, but he's not there yet. Like you said, play at least 1/2 the games at that level, but I'd even consider needing 2 seasons of that play with a .925 sv%. The Wall also has that potential, and has no experience.

    What we have are some nice pieces, but nothing in the elite category. So, to counter that, we've got to be solid defensively and outwork more talented rosters. Outworking usually means physically dominating, and we have pieces there too, but not enough. Our defense is too small, and we've got to many tiny forwards. 

    Essentially, where that puts us is at a least talented position that cannot fully dominate physical play, kind of a hybrid, but a team that just doesn't have the higher gear for playoffs. And, with the eye test the last 3 years, that is what the results are. 

    So, we either need more talent and skill, or we need more beef. It appears that skill is coming, though, not in the elite category. I would think that above average skill on 3 lines could get it done with depth, but that means those lines will also have to be disciplined to keep the opponents off the board. 

    On defense, we need younger, cheaper, skilled and beefy options. I would consider 200 lbs. as the minimum weight class, and we could use another Middleton class player. We've got plenty of shorter 200 lb.ish defenders in the system. They should be solid and well able to clear the home plate area, plus, they offer some good skating and mobility. 

    Bottom line is this, though: Until we can plug the center holes on this club, we are not close. '25-26 season is where I see our window opening again, and based upon what is in our system, we will need to buy our skilled guys. The next 2 seasons should be focused on developing this next young core of players. They need to be ready when we can buy skill, and they won't be ready as rookies.

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