By Tony Abbott -
It's incredibly difficult to anticipate an NHL team's needs years into the future. For example, last season, most fans believed the Minnesota Wild's defensive prospect pool was stacked. With Carson Lambos, Daemon Hunt, David Spacek, Ryan O'Rourke, and Kyle Masters in the AHL or turning pro, it looked like the Wild had a future logjam on their hands.
After those five defensemen struggled to gain traction with the Iowa Wild this year, Minnesota suddenly didn't have enough defensemen, to the point where the Wild are reportedly set to ink a four-year, $4 million-plus AAV contract extension for Jake Middleton on Monday. The deal would cement Jonas Brodin and Middleton on the left side of Minnesota's defense through the 2027-28 season.
If the Wild kept Middleton under contract for five more years (including the last season of his current deal), it would signal a lack of faith in their prospect pool. Brodin and Middleton would ensure that only one of Lambos, Hunt, O'Rourke, or Jack Peart could assume top-six NHL minutes. Suppose Minnesota believes just one (or zero) will pan out, then it might make sense for Middleton to hold that spot down for a half-decade.
But again, it's tough to anticipate the needs of an NHL team, as they could change in a weekend. Days before free agency, Minnesota added two major left-shot defensemen to their organization in first-round pick Zeev Buium and fourth-rounder Aron Kiviharju. These signings change the long-term outlook for Minnesota at the position, and they should change their plans with Middleton.
The Wild have a potential No. 1 defenseman on the left side of the blueline in Buium, and he should be NHL-ready extremely soon. He already led the NCAA in time on ice and points from a defenseman and won a National Championship. The Wild are having him play his sophomore year at Denver University, but how much more will he be able to accomplish after that?
Buium may be in the NHL at the end of this upcoming season before Middleton's current contract expires. With Buium's big-play ability, solid defense, and minute-munching, he could supplant Middleton on the depth chart for a playoff run. If not next year, then soon afterward, which would give Minnesota a third-pairing defenseman making $4 million or more.
It might not even be long until Kiviharju can play in the NHL. He's been in and out of Finnish Liiga since September 2022, when he was 16. If he gets back to his pre-draft year trajectory, he could easily be ready for NHL action by the start of the 2026-27 season. And who knows, with a dominant season in Liiga, perhaps he could even push for a spot in 2025-26 as Buium breaks into the NHL.
Then there's the possibility that one of Lambos, Peart, Hunt, or O'Rourke put it together and become NHL-caliber. After adding Kiviharju to the mix, odds are one of them will be worthy of displacing Middleton long before his reported four-year deal expires.
The Wild will certainly cite "cost certainty" if and when they ink Middleton to an extension. But what makes Minnesota certain they'll want to pay Middleton $4 million in four years? Or three? Or two?
Middleton succeeded in his time in Minnesota as a defensive specialist alongside Jared Spurgeon. Last year, we discovered what happens when you take Spurgeon away from Middleton, and it wasn't pretty. Suddenly, his calling card defense looked a lot less effective. He went from controlling 61.9% of the expected goals share in 155 minutes with Spurgeon to 47.8% in 802 minutes with Brock Faber.
The idea of blocking off a roster spot for four years with an expensive, third-pairing defenseman is already a sketchy proposition. Doing it for one whose success seems to rely on another player (Spurgeon, whose contract will expire halfway through Middleton's likely extension) simply seems like bad roster management.
Signing Middleton this week would echo many of the problems from the extensions the Wild handed out last offseason. Namely: Why sign it now, a year before Minnesota has to make a decision? Why tie up that flexibility in a role player before getting any of the information they'll learn about their prospects next year?
By next May, Minnesota will have a great handle on Buium's NHL timetable, and that's if they don't already have him on the roster. They'll get to see how well Kiviharju bounces back from his injury and handles a full-time role in Liiga. Their AHL defensemen (who are all 23 and under) will have another season of development and the possibility of taking major strides.
Middleton isn't going anywhere and isn't getting any more expensive next season. They can wait to see what they have in their prospect pool, then make a more informed decision with a term tailored to their needs.
It's hard to see Bill Guerin deviating from his plan, particularly for one of his beloved veterans, but plans can and should change with new information. The Wild planned on signing Middleton before getting two stud left defensemen in Buium and Kiviharju. Now that they have those in-house, they must adopt a wait-and-see posture.
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