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  • Should Macklin Celebrini Root For the Wild To Tank?


    Image courtesy of John Mersits / USA TODAY NETWORK
    Tony Abbott

    The Minnesota Wild are languishing near the bottom of the standings at the All-Star Break. With only 47 points through 49 games, the Wild are 27th in the NHL, just outside the five worst teams. They'll be in line for the sixth-best draft lottery odds if things hold.

    Imagine, for a moment, that good things can happen to Minnesota. After all, the PWHL Minnesota team landed the No. 1 overall draft pick and Taylor Heise, why can't the Wild get a fortunate bounce? That would mean the Wild would be the odds-on favorite to land Boston University's Macklin Celebrini. 

    If so, that's a franchise-changing moment for the Wild. Celebrini is currently dominating the NCAA, racking up 18 goals and 35 points in only 22 games. He won't celebrate his 18th birthday until June, either, so there's plenty of room for him to get even better. Minnesota would have a Jack Eichel-type star making near the league minimum for the next three seasons. It's a big deal under any circumstance. But it'd be divine providence with the Wild's cap situation.

    Fans hoping that the Wild can turn things around and make up the seven-point gap between Minnesota and a Wild Card spot will quickly point out that landing the No. 1 overall pick doesn't guarantee a winner. That's true, and we can look at Eichel to prove it.

    The Buffalo Sabres snagged the second overall pick in 2015 to land Eichel, who was available after Connor McDavid and may be the best consolation prize in hockey history. Eichel never made the playoffs in Buffalo, struggling to carry the team year after year and failing to make it over the hump.

    Celebrini probably won't be able to single-handedly turn a bad team into a contender. Even McDavid can just barely do it, even with Leon Draisaitl helping out. But that shouldn't be a problem if Celebrini lands in Minnesota. And from his standpoint, maybe he should be rooting for the Wild to snatch up as many ping-pong balls as possible over these last 33 games.

    Why? Well, look at what went wrong with Eichel in Buffalo. First, he landed with a team that was bad enough to be in the position to draft him. That's pretty inevitable with any team picking No. 1 overall, though. So, what was uniquely terrible about the Sabres?

    Not only was Buffalo awful, but they had almost no infrastructure for Eichel to succeed with. Poor drafting was partly to blame. The Sabres had five picks in the top 16 from 2012 to 2014 and came away with Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov, Mikhail Grigorenko, and Zemgus Girgensons. Even when the picks landed, that's hardly a championship core. Their luck in later rounds was much worse.

    The Sabres also nuked their team to pursue McDavid or Eichel, leaving few NHL-caliber players to bring their new star along. Instead, they had to make up for it with splashy additions. Perhaps that could work, but acquiring Ryan O'Reilly, Evander Kane, and later Jeff Skinner certainly didn't do the trick.

    So, where's the worst place for Celebrini to go? Arguably, it's a team that's as barren as the Sabres were in 2015. Unfortunately, that describes many of the teams in the mix for the presumptive No. 1 pick.

    The San Jose Sharks are probably the most direct comparable to the 2015 Sabres. They have Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture (when healthy) anchoring top-six roles. But past that? Yikes. Their top scorers are Hertl (34 points in 48 games), Mikael Granlund (29 points in 38 games), and William Eklund (24 points in 50 games), who went No. 7 overall in 2021. Add in Fabian Zetterlund, and that's it for Sharks players with 20-plus points.

    The Chicago Blackhawks have Connor Bedard, but he's in a bleak situation. Thanks to injuries and a low talent level, Chicago is icing an AHL team. There are intriguing young players like Kevin Korchinski, Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore, and Nick Lardis, but most of them aren't in the NHL yet.

    Theoretically, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators should be able to provide a soft landing spot for Celebrini, given their young talent. However, neither team has a core that's materializing into much of anything. Ottawa is the more talented of the two, but having Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, and Thomas Chabot in their core isn't clicking. Maybe Celebrini could change the math, but something doesn't seem right there.

    Things start looking up when we get to the Anaheim Ducks. They mostly have mediocre veterans, but Anaheim's star players Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras create some infrastructure for Celebrini to gel with. There's also the possibility that the Ducks' recent acquisition, Cutter Gauthier from hated rival Boston College, could make his debut around the time Celebrini would.

    Then there's Minnesota, just outside of the league's bottom five. Is there infrastructure for Celebrini to step into? You bet there is.

    The Wild would have the choice of what star-level winger they'd want to pair with Celebrini. Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy offer a combination of finishing talent and playmaking that would make defenses have to deal with multiple dual-threat players rather than focus solely on shutting Celebrini down.

    Even better, they'd have the option of easing Celebrini into the NHL with easier defensive assignments. With Joel Eriksson Ek serving as a No. 2 (or No. 3, depending on where he'd wind up in the pecking order with Marco Rossi) center, Minnesota would be sure to keep using him as a shutdown defensive center. They could even bring Celebrini along as a winger to start his career, allowing him to excel offensively before easing into center-type responsibilities.

    Celebrini would also be joining a relatively complete team with a track record of recent success. Say what you want about the Wild this season; they're not much different from the team that racked up 103 points last year. Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin are the kind of reliable veteran defensemen that few first-overall picks get the luxury of playing with right away.

    Minnesota doesn't even have to build out its talent pool. Brock Faber and Rossi are thriving in the NHL. Marat Khusnutdinov might make his debut this month. Jesper Wallstedt is knocking on the door in net. There are just very few weaknesses for Celebrini to worry about.

    Celebrini will probably have a great NHL career no matter who drafts him, and maybe he doesn't care where he ends up. But if he's hoping for a smooth transition to a ready-made competitive team instead of having to build one from the ground up, he might want to keep tabs on whether Wild continue to stumble for these last two months. 

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    Wild would have at least a 5% chance as long as they remain one of the worst 9 teams in standing points, so they could pass a few teams and still have a shot at Celebrini--just a 2.5% difference from their current position. Could be ideal for both him and the Wild if it were to work out that the Wild win the lottery.

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    If we some how end up with Macklin that would be insane in 2 years with Khus, Yurov, and the rest of our pipeline of prospects all starting to come in at the same time.  Might create a huge log jam though for our prospects with all the no trade and nmc that the wild have given out recently.

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    Karma says that paying the price for cap penalties that were unearned (I say this because the rules completely screwed the team to not grandfather the contracts in like is tradition in everything) that we are due for a couple of breaks in the draft order. Was getting #9 in Rossi's year one of them? Probably. 

    Sometimes, for real good borderline elite prospects, luck of where they end up is what makes or breaks their career. I'm not from the school that a draft pick starts rooting for a team to tank, but dreaming of a perfect place to go might include coming to the Wild where he could really help out. 

    But, from our standpoint, is it Celebrini we are dreaming of, or would Saliyev or Lindstrom be better fits for our team? That's a tough call for me as I have not had eyes on Celebrini. I would point out, though, that at the WJCs, Canada, his team, did not make it to a medal game. And, when it comes to that series, for years the Russians have not been allowed to attend. 

    To me, I would think that the 4-6 slots would be the ones that would help our team the most. And, we're in that window right now.

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    9 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    To me, I would think that the 4-6 slots would be the ones that would help our team the most. And, we're in that window right now.

    Go big or go home.  If we are going to embrace a pipe dream for half of a year then it sure as hell isn't going to be the 6th pick.

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    That's a fair assessment. I guess my wonder is if Celebrini is really That good? Hype says he is, but I'm not a big believer in hype. One thing in his column is that he is certainly putting up points among better competition than in jrs. And, he is certainly putting up more points than Stramel.

    But, would a big center or big defender be a better selection on this type of team? Especially when we have several undersized players on the team? Or do we simply embrace the undersized and go fully skill and speed?

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    I’ve been on an emotional roller coaster ride with the Wild this year and Tony you’re not helping! What I’m talking away from your article is you’re hoping that the Wild can go from “The Titanic” to “Taken” (with the first overall pick the Wild select..” Now you’ve gone and infused hope into my troubled soul. 

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    2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Bettman would move heaven and earth to ensure that won't happen.  I'm surprised he hasn't forced the Wild to move to New Mexico or some shit.

    Sadly, I agree.

    Would really love this scenario. If our other d prospects show up and the 2 Russians come over and produce like they have been this could be a REALLY good team for the next several years. You could roll out 3 lethal lines and one absolute shutdown line. It's a nice dream.

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    8 minutes ago, Burnt Toast said:

    I’ve been on an emotional roller coaster ride with the Wild this year and Tony you’re not helping! What I’m talking away from your article is you’re hoping that the Wild can go from “The Titanic” to “Taken” (with the first overall pick the Wild select..” Now you’ve gone and infused hope into my troubled soul. 

    good-hate.gif.9a7fe381bfb65dec37624266b50937e7.gif

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    3 hours ago, viper3119 said:

    Might create a huge log jam though for our prospects with all the no trade and nmc that the wild have given out recently.

    Those protections will dwindle, so if they need to move guys, they likely would be able to get it done. Someone like Gaudreau has just a 15-team no trade clause, so roughly half of the NHL is open for a trade.

    Ryan Hartman only has a full no movement clause for 24-25, then goes to 15, then reduces to 10 team no trade clause for the final year of his extension. I don't think it will be a major concern, assuming the young guys are actually ready for the NHL.

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    3 hours ago, viper3119 said:

    If we some how end up with Macklin that would be insane in 2 years with Khus, Yurov, and the rest of our pipeline of prospects all starting to come in at the same time.  Might create a huge log jam though for our prospects with all the no trade and nmc that the wild have given out recently.

    Good problem to have.

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    To me, I would think that the 4-6 slots would be the ones that would help our team the most. And, we're in that window right now.

    Keep in mind that finishing 6th would give the Wild greater than 50% chance of selecting 7th or 8th. They'd still have a good player available there, just making it known that they would only have a 34.1% chance of picking 6th, and zero chance of selecting 4th or 5th based upon their current standings placement.

    It would be surprising to me if the Wild slipped lower in the standings. Ottawa would have the best chance to pass them, but I expect it will be tough for them or Columbus to get enough points to beat the Wild by the end of the season and the 3 lowest Western teams have an even worse chance.

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    But, from our standpoint, is it Celebrini we are dreaming of, or would Saliyev or Lindstrom be better fits for our team? That's a tough call for me as I have not had eyes on Celebrini. I would point out, though, that at the WJCs, Canada, his team, did not make it to a medal game. And, when it comes to that series, for years the Russians have not been allowed to attend. 

    He might not be quite at Bedard's level, but a 17-year old freshman playing at this level in college hockey is really impressive.

    On NHL.com -- "The top five players in the 2024 draft class are a very strong group but there was no debate over who was No. 1," NHL Central Scouting director Dan Marr said. "Celebrini’s an NHL All-Star in the making having displayed his NHL skills and attributes on the world stage, as a 17-year-old with Canada's World Junior Championship team and while leading Boston University and Hockey East in scoring.

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    Nobody is rooting to become a member of this franchise.  And there is not a track record of success here.  This team has largely gotten their arses kicked in the first round of the playoffs.

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    8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    That's a fair assessment. I guess my wonder is if Celebrini is really That good? Hype says he is, but I'm not a big believer in hype. One thing in his column is that he is certainly putting up points among better competition than in jrs. And, he is certainly putting up more points than Stramel.

    But, would a big center or big defender be a better selection on this type of team? Especially when we have several undersized players on the team? Or do we simply embrace the undersized and go fully skill and speed?

    I'm mostly joking around.  Winning the lottery and getting the #1 pick is like... well winning the lottery. 

    But ping pong balls aside... yeah definitely we need size in the pipeline.  We drafted big C last year, we should go big D this year.

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    6 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    It would be surprising to me if the Wild slipped lower in the standings. Ottawa would have the best chance to pass them, but I expect it will be tough for them or Columbus to get enough points to beat the Wild by the end of the season and the 3 lowest Western teams have an even worse chance.

    Looks like Calgary is in a position to out tank us.  I don't know what the Capitals are going to do but they are prime for tanking.

    Pittsburg, Jersey and the Islanders are going to compete for the playoffs.  Probably Nashville and Seattle too.

    Arizona and Buffalo and Montreal?  That will be a coin flip.

    I think worst case for us is 11th and best case maybe 7th.

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    I suggest everyone start planning on the Wild picking 12th or 14th. 

    These pie in the sky suggestions are fun but not likely to ever happen. 

    I'll predict and mentally prepare for the worst and if MN ends up 8th, great. 

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    10 hours ago, Beast said:

    Nobody is rooting to become a member of this franchise.  And there is not a track record of success here.  This team has largely gotten their arses kicked in the first round of the playoffs.

    I think this is a legitimate take. Given the losing culture here and the human explosive device known as Bill Guerin how high is this franchise on anyone's destination list. We talk about all the NTC and NTM clauses given to our players. Most players around the league have those same clauses and it would be interesting to know how many of those have the Wild on their no go list. 

    When a high end free agent becomes available and he has a choice of a half dozen or more places to go to will Minnesota win out over say Vegas, New York, Tampa or Boston? Being a destination team is a real thing among players. They consider many things when deciding where to take their talents. Of course money is high on the list but so are things like a winning culture. Schools for the kids, crime rates, weather in a particular place, taxes, where does the wife want to go all factor in. Minnesota does not come to the top in any of these factors. 

    They had a interesting discussion about this with I think it was Jordan Leipold on Sirius radio awhile back.   

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    8 hours ago, Protec said:

    I suggest everyone start planning on the Wild picking 12th or 14th. 

    These pie in the sky suggestions are fun but not likely to ever happen. 

    I'll predict and mentally prepare for the worst and if MN ends up 8th, great. 

    Still some pretty great options there. Most of the top-tier blue-liners will be gone but there's a chance we could still get a potentially elite offensive defenseman if Yakemchuk falls. Tankathon has him going #12. He's pretty much a bigger Matt Dumba clone with a huge shot.

    Zayne Parekh would also be a good option at that point of the draft, not as exciting as Yakemchuk but still offensively gifted from the blue-line. Question with him is effort away from the play but that could possibly be coached out of him. 

    Otherwise if its a worst-case scenario and a lot of the offensive blueliners are gone, there's some good options for future top-6 wingers, or potential trade bait down the line.

    Konsta Helenius should be available there if we want a Mikko Koivu clone. Otherwise Brandsegg-Nygard offers some decent size and could be a triggerman for us like we've been missing since Fiala left. Trevor Connelly, provided the off-ice red flags aren't a huge concern, would be a good option too and fits in with all our other pass-first playmakers.

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    6 hours ago, MacGyver said:

    I think this is a legitimate take. Given the losing culture here and the human explosive device known as Bill Guerin how high is this franchise on anyone's destination list. We talk about all the NTC and NTM clauses given to our players. Most players around the league have those same clauses and it would be interesting to know how many of those have the Wild on their no go list. 

    When a high end free agent becomes available and he has a choice of a half dozen or more places to go to will Minnesota win out over say Vegas, New York, Tampa or Boston? Being a destination team is a real thing among players. They consider many things when deciding where to take their talents. Of course money is high on the list but so are things like a winning culture. Schools for the kids, crime rates, weather in a particular place, taxes, where does the wife want to go all factor in. Minnesota does not come to the top in any of these factors. 

    They had a interesting discussion about this with I think it was Jordan Leipold on Sirius radio awhile back.   

    Generally, any team picking that high isn't a winning team.  If you are getting picked high in the draft, you are probably going to a team that isn't going to challenge for the playoffs in the near future.

    In regards to the second part, it's also partly why it's frequently the same teams are often making the high picks.  Bigger markets have the advantage to bounce back more easily than smaller markets because they are more likely to be destinations that free agents will go to.

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    6 hours ago, raithis said:

    Generally, any team picking that high isn't a winning team.  If you are getting picked high in the draft, you are probably going to a team that isn't going to challenge for the playoffs in the near future.

    In regards to the second part, it's also partly why it's frequently the same teams are often making the high picks.  Bigger markets have the advantage to bounce back more easily than smaller markets because they are more likely to be destinations that free agents will go to.

    But here's the thing that gets me. It seems like when it comes to the ping pong balls, the large market teams seem to get way luckier than the mid and small market teams. NYR certainly benefited as well as Chicago. Do you get a couple of extra balls in the tank if you're a large market team? It would seem like the stars in the draft certainly get to go to the larger markets. 

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    3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    But here's the thing that gets me. It seems like when it comes to the ping pong balls, the large market teams seem to get way luckier than the mid and small market teams. NYR certainly benefited as well as Chicago. Do you get a couple of extra balls in the tank if you're a large market team? It would seem like the stars in the draft certainly get to go to the larger markets. 

    Seems that way, doesn't it?  I don't necessarily think that there's some conspiracy to skew the likelihood that the high picks go to larger markets, but I do recognize that it's better for the profitability of the league to have it's most marketable players in locations that are overall more populated.

    And when a larger market team needs that high draft pick, they do seem to get it fairly quickly.  Strange how that usually ends up being the case, right?  Strange how perennially bad a team like Arizona is and they've never had a #1 pick, yet somehow larger markets get that highly touted, generational talent.  The odd exception of course is Edmonton, but their luck is just insane.

    The thing is, many of those teams already have an advantage just by being larger markets.  They can attract the higher end of the free agent pool far more easily than Minnesota can.  Even if Minnesota was a serious cup contender, we'd still have trouble getting players to choose us over other areas, especially earlier in their careers.

    If younger star free agents don't sign with their existing team, they frequently end up going to a larger market or someplace with a warmer climate that is also a medium to large market.  Because of this (and other factors), Minnesota generally gets more of the aging guys who are past their primes and want to settle down.

    All this is why it's so important to scout well and find those diamonds in the rough to grow and develop the team from within, something we haven't done a lot of over the years as we've tended to sacrifice youth for those aging guys.  It's fine to get those guys.  Every teams needs some of them.  They just can't come at the expense of NHL-caliber youngsters.

    Even if we were the worst team in the league, I feel like we wouldn't have the same luck as some other teams to get the #1, so I wish people would stop wanting us to tank because it's just not going to happen.

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    I don't know if you all got the memo from the NHL but Chicago is slated to get the #1 pick in the draft again.

    The Wild will go on a hot streak soon enough and we will be looking at pick 11-15.

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