By Justin Wiggins -
In our offseason series of players the Wild could trade for, we have been identifying skaters GM Bill Guerin could target for a top-six role among the forward group.
This week, we turn our attention to Pittsburgh Penguins’ winger Reilly Smith. The 33-year-old former Stanley Cup champion not only possesses a workable contract for the Minnesota Wild but also provides value to the Wild that neither of our other targets could bring.
First, let’s set the stage as to how we got here.
This series began following The Athletic’s Michael Russo’s end-of-season reporting, where he strongly suspects the Wild will use the increase in the NHL’s salary cap in free agency to acquire a veteran forward on a short-term deal. The NHL will raise the salary cap by roughly $5 million this offseason, and the Wild would be wise to use that extra room to replace Marcus Johansson on the second line.
However, this may prove more difficult and less fruitful in practice than in theory. The Wild can’t dip their toes into any of the top-of-the-market players who will demand salary and term. The secondary market would be their fishing pond, but the best option there might be someone like David Perron, who has value but doesn’t exactly move the needle.
And while a player like Perron checks some boxes for the Wild, it isn’t a move that would greatly alter their chances next year as they try to return to the playoffs. With this in mind, a trade may make more sense.
We have explored the idea of trading for Winnipeg Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers and New Jersey Devils youngster Alexander Holtz to fill that specific role. Both players would require significant assets to acquire. However, as we’ve also pointed out this year, the Wild are flush with prospects and picks. With their competitive window theoretically opening in 2025-26, it’s the perfect time to start parting with future assets to acquire proven talent.
Ehlers and Holtz fit that timeline. But again, this exercise was to see who the Wild could target in a trade they couldn’t find in free agency this July. Long-term fits right now are not a necessity. Russo has reported the Wild would likely look to add a veteran on a short-term deal in free agency. That would leave them roster flexibility following the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyout cap hits falling off the books next summer.
For those reasons, Smith would make a perfect target for the Wild. The left-handed, five-time 20-goal scorer only has one year remaining on his contract at a reasonable $5 million AAV. His contract is a near-perfect fit for what Minnesota can afford right now, and the assets to acquire Smith would likely be far less than Ehlers and Holtz.
The Vegas Golden Knights traded Smith to Pittsburgh last offseason as they were dumping salary. The 6’1” sniper should have been a great fit alongside Sidney Crosby, Evgeny Malkin, and Jake Guentzel, but it didn’t work out that way. The Penguins were in disarray most of the season and missed the playoffs for the second straight year. With an aging core of Hall of Famers, Pittsburgh will likely look to make whatever moves necessary this summer to return to the playoffs.
And the Wild could be the beneficiaries of such a move. Even as Smith enters his mid-30s, his value as a complimentary top-six player remains enticing. His 13-27-40 stat line last year dipped slightly below his six-year average during his prime in Vegas (21-22-43). However, Smith has proven he can keep up with high-end players around him, something Johansson struggled to do last year.
Smith also brings a more well-rounded game than Johansson and other options in free agency. Taking away the short sample size of one season and focusing on his best years in Vegas, Smith was a staple on the penalty kill for a Stanely Cup contender. His season average of 127.5 minutes on the kill would have been higher than all but Eriksson Ek and Brandon Duhaime last season in Minnesota amongst forwards.
The penalty kill has been a contentious topic in Minnesota. The Wild finished 29th in the NHL last year with a 74.5% conversion rate on the kill. This unit was disastrous, almost certainly leading to Dean Evason's firing early in the season.
Adding a proven veteran to the roster who can kill penalties and approach 20 goals would significantly boost the Wild’s on-ice results. However, Smith’s value exceeds what he could provide on this ice this season.
We aren’t talking about his locker room influence. While the Wild aspire to return to the playoffs next season, it will be challenging, even with adding a player like Smith.
The injury history of their core of aging players is very real. Captain Jared Spurgeon may be on track to return from his season-ending injuries for training camp, but he’s missed at least 20 games in three of the last five seasons. It’s not a guarantee they will have their best defenseman fully healthy for the entire season.
Winger Marcus Foligno turns 33 this summer, and the gritty power forward has only played more than 65 games once in the past five seasons. Other key veterans, such as Mats Zuccarello and Jonas Brodin, have also missed their fair share of games and enter this season another year older.
In a perfect world, if the Wild trade for Smith and their core players stay healthy, nobody doubts this team’s ability to reach the playoffs and compete. But in an imperfect world, a veteran-laden team with minimal depth due to the buyout hits leaves the Wild vulnerable to another season turning sideways.
Here is where Smith’s value truly lies. If Pittsburgh looks to trade him, it would be to get off his $5 million cap hit and use that as flexibility to rebuild their roster immediately. The cost to acquire him should be modest. If the Wild’s season does turn sour, they could look to trade Smith and his expiring contract at the deadline and recoup at least the assets given up acquiring him. They would likely receive more, seeing as trade deadline value is typically higher than a veteran player fetches in the offseason.
Trading for Smith makes a ton of sense for Minnesota, given their short-term vision to return to the playoffs and their long-term goals should next year become a lost season. Either way, the Wild would consider a trade for Smith a success, and so would the fans.
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