By Tony Abbott -
Tonight's not the night. The Minnesota Wild announced that Zeev Buium won't play Tuesday as the team tries to sew up their playoff spot in Game 82. If the team isn't willing to put their top prospect into the lineup for a must-win game against the 35-37-8 Anaheim Ducks, it's far from guaranteed that he'd get in the lineup for the playoffs.
But one thing is certain: He should.
Granted, it's weird for an NHL club to turn to a literal teenager and say, Punch our ticket in, much less, Go help us win a playoff series. Cale Makar and Brock Faber may have transitioned from college to an NHL playoff environment, but those guys were both 20 when they made that jump. Nobody doubts Buium's talents, but relying on him with everything on the line is a tall order, even in a sheltered role.
And yet, he should still play.
While Minnesota's in a precarious playoff position, it has to be understood that this roster hasn't been good enough to clinch in their first 81 games. Are there reasons why? Injuries to key players, cap constraints? Of course. But here's where they're at, and as the saying goes: You are what your record says you are.
Unless something changes. We saw a spark of energy when Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek combined for six goals upon their return. However, that jolt couldn't sustain them through a must-win slugfest with the Calgary Flames on Saturday. The Flames also had everything on the line, to be fair, but so will any first-round opponent the Wild draw. Minnesota needs more.
Buium can give them more. He might not, but that's not important. What matters is that he raises the ceiling for the Wild. To say nothing of his 5-on-5 play, Buium helmed a Denver power play that led the NCAA with 46 goals (in 41 games) and ran at a 29.1% clip. College and the NHL are apples and oranges, but the Wild enter Game 82 with just 43 power-play goals on the season.
Buium helps close a major power play gap between them and their first-round opponents. The Winnipeg Jets have clinched the Central Division, and the Vegas Golden Knights can clinch the Pacific tonight. Those teams are ranked No. 1 and 2 in power play percentage, respectively, converting over 29% of their opportunities. That's terrifying, even before accounting for the Wild's 30th-ranked penalty kill.
Underdog, low-scoring teams like the Wild often have to slow the game down to a crawl to win a playoff series. Minnesota will undoubtedly do that at 5-on-5, but that just increases the importance of special teams. The Wild will have to try to match one of the league's best two power plays goal-for-goal, even if they come out ahead at even strength.
Hockey coaches love to deal with known quantities. Coaches don't catch heat for putting solid but low-upside options like Jon Merrill and Zach Bogosian in the lineup. However, they do when they put a rookie into the playoffs, and the player struggles. But after 80 games, the Wild are a known quantity, and the Jets/Knights are, too. On paper, those teams are simply better. Without a trade deadline move to bolster their roster, Buium is the only option the Wild have to make themselves an unknown quantity.
That doesn't only have the potential to help the team for a playoff series or two. Playing Buium can potentially help the Wild solidify their organizational plan, which revolves entirely around retaining their superstar.
This July is the Moment of Truth for the Wild and Kaprizov. Will Kaprizov sign a mega-deal with the team that drafted him, or will he show reluctance to sign? If it's the latter, the Wild will almost certainly be forced to trade him.
We don't know Kaprizov's first priority. If it's money, that's entirely within the Wild's control. If it's being in a certain market, that's entirely outside Minnesota's control. And if it's winning? It's complicated.
The Wild have had Kaprizov for five years, four of which have been hindered by the onerous Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyouts. During that time, Minnesota competed. They've made the playoffs and built a solid young core. But they haven't won, and they probably aren't going to win this year -- whether Buium raises their ceiling or not.
But there's losing, and there's losing in a way that helps sell hope. Having Buium in the playoff lineup gives Minnesota the best chance to sell Kaprizov hope, even if they lose.
Picture this scenario: Buium steps in as the power play quarterback, and he's ready to take control of it immediately. What's more? He's good at it. He can manipulate defenders in ways that Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon couldn't. Buium shows a knack for finding Kaprizov, who feasts with the space his new defenseman creates for him. Still, Minnesota loses their playoff series in five games.
Now picture this: the Wild have a repeat of their 2021 series against Vegas. The series goes seven games, with Minnesota unfortunately going home after many hard-fought, low-scoring contests. The power play struggles, scoring just two goals.
Which locker room clean-out day conversation will be more appealing for Kaprizov?
Scenario 1: Hey, I know this was a tough series, and we fell short, but we're out from the worst of cap hell, and we just saw that you've got the John Carlson to your Alex Ovechkin in place for as long as you sign here.
or
Scenario 2: Hey, I know this was a tough series, and we fell short, but we're out of the worst of cap hell. We've got all these prospects that you've basically only seen in practice, go ahead and sign on that dotted line July 1.
Look, there's a chance that Buium might not make a difference in either increasing their playoff ceiling or re-signing their superstar. But no one knows that until he plays. All we can operate off of, in the moment, is what positions Minnesota the best to accomplish its short and long-term goals.
The Wild know what the team they'll ice tonight is capable of: This (essentially) is the exact same team that hit a wall in the playoffs in 2021, 2022, and 2023. If the Wild want to raise their ceiling for the postseason and be in a position to entice Kaprizov with the fruits of their youth movement, playing Buium should be a no-brainer.
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