By Robert Brent -
The Minnesota Wild have had almost everything go right in the 2024-25 season. Kirill Kaprizov is playing at another level, and young core players like Marco Rossi, Brock Faber, and Matt Boldy continue to develop. Filip Gustavsson has shaken off last year's inconsistency and become one of the league's elite goaltenders.
A rash of injuries was the only thing that could stop their run. In the last couple of weeks, the Wild have had Jake Middleton, Jonas Brodin, Mats Zuccarello, and Joel Eriksson Ek headline the players who have missed games.
The Wild have continued to win games despite health problems, but it is concerning that the team has missed so many regulars. On December 12th, the short-handed Wild never had a chance against the Edmonton Oilers, losing 7-1.
If Minnesota wants to avoid more games like that, it must find adequate replacements for its lineup regulars. Unfortunately, Iowa is unlikely to provide those replacements.
Iowa Struggles To Produce Replacements
When Middleton sustained his injury, it seemed like the Wild would need to bring up a player from the AHL to fill his spot. The team just traded for David Jiricek and has spent considerable resources building their defensive assets over the last several years.
That expectation changed when Michael Russo reported that Minnesota didn’t feel that prospects Carson Lambos and Ryan O’Rourke were ready for NHL action. Instead, Minnesota claimed veteran defender Travis Dermott off waivers to fill their blue line needs.
With all due respect to Travis Dermott, who has put together a solid career, he hasn’t logged an on-ice expected goal above 50% or a Corsi-for rating above 50% since 2021. In all likelihood, he’s a replacement-level player that the Wild felt was a better option than anyone in the system.
Iowa’s struggles have been on the radar for some time, but the Wild’s injuries only intensify the spotlight. Rossi is the only skater on the Wild’s roster to play more than 50 games in Iowa. Everyone else developed in other leagues like the NCAA, KHL, Swedish Elite League, or elsewhere.
It’s not like Iowa doesn’t have talent. Minnesota has a reputation for drafting high-level talent. In The Athletic’s fan survey, NHL fans ranked the Wild as the sixth-best team at drafting and developing, while Wild fans ranked them 12th.
In this case, the drafting part of this equation is doing the heavy lifting. The Wild have stockpiled great young players, but only some go through Iowa. As mentioned, Rossi spent time in the AHL, but there are far more examples of prospects going through Iowa and not being prepared for the NHL. The team has already gotten very little out of prospects like Adam Beckman and Calen Addison, who looked like potential impact players.
Few of the NHL’s top players spend significant time in the AHL. It may be unreasonable to expect Iowa to produce regular NHLers out of late-round picks. However, the Wild don’t have anyone ready to play even a few games in case of an injury, which is concerning.
Reinforcements Needed
Iowa’s lack of NHL-ready prospects has become an issue. While players get injured every season, this is far from Minnesota’s first time facing a high volume of players missing time. Injuries to key players like Jared Spurgeon sank the Wild last year. Minnesota’s injury issues have been a recurring storyline dating back to 2011. The need for high-quality reinforcements should not surprise the team.
Still, the Wild aren’t confident they can depend on prospects like O’Rourke and Lambos. Instead, they’ve used a patchwork group of lower-lineup players to help fill the gaps. Recently, players like Ben Jones, Travis Boyd, Travis Dermott, and Devin Shore have played minutes for the Wild. All of those players have also played with Iowa this season.
However, I’m concerned about players the Wild drafted and developed in the system. For example, Travis Boyd may play in Iowa, but he has already played over 250 NHL games. Those talents aren’t players Minnesota drafted and developed. They’re the proverbial band-aids on a rash of injuries that threaten to become a gunshot wound.
All the players mentioned have done a fine job in their limited action. However, the Wild would be much better off if they could get ice time for their prospects. Minnesota has spent a lot of resources building a strong infrastructure for drafting prospects under Judd Brackett's guidance and has been relatively successful. Why use those resources if they can’t be confident prospects can rise through the ranks in Iowa?
Lack Of Development Could Hurt Wild In the Future
The Wild’s issues with developing prospects are hurting them, but they will be even more concerning going forward. Waiver-wire pickups and short-term deals with veterans can be fruitful, but Minnesota will always have to replace them. If a player like Travis Dermott is successful, the Wild will have to pay them or let them leave. Should they have more injury issues, the Wild will return in the same situation.
Instead, having young players with contract control and experience in the organization would be much more valuable. Restricted free agency gives teams more control and allows them to keep players or acquire assets for their departures.
The Wild have created a core group of players, but they’ll always need valuable depth players. A narrative surrounding the team’s roster construction has been that veteran contracts keep the team’s prospects from getting time in the NHL. That’s true in some cases. However, even when spots open up due to injuries, Iowa has no one ready to step up.
To reiterate, the Iowa Wild don't need to churn out players who play hundreds of games in the NHL. That’d be an unrealistic expectation, and most of the Wild’s top players complete their development in other pro leagues or make an immediate impact in the NHL. What is the job of a development team if not to prepare prospects to be somewhat ready to play in the league?
The Wild’s recent rash of injuries proves that Iowa is severely behind on development because the team doesn’t feel that anyone in the AHL is ready even to play a few games to fill in for injury. If Minnesota can’t figure out a better system for developing their prospects, then it doesn’t matter how well they draft. If players like Carson Lambos and Ryan O’Rourke aren’t ready to fill in for injuries, then the Wild risk a mad scramble every time players miss games.
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