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  • Minnesota's Dead Cap Space Might Help As Much As It Hurts This Summer


    Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
    Tony Abbott

    The State of Hockey is going to spend their offseason with their collective noses pressed against the window while the teams with money go shopping this summer. With the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter Buyout Torture Machine ratcheted up to $14.7 million, the Minnesota Wild are unable to do almost anything this season.

    Still, the Wild have some holes this offseason. They have little offensive talent beyond Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Mats Zuccarello. They've got longtime defenseman Matt Dumba exiting the lineup and can't bring back John Klingberg, even if they wanted to. And that's assuming Minnesota will bring back Filip Gustavsson without much trouble.

    The Wild aren't filling any of those spots with free agency, or at least, not without major surgery to their roster and salary structure. There will probably be a lot of fans wondering what would happen if only Minnesota had $15 million of ammunition to tackle the summer with.

    Would that be that great of a thing, though?

    Teams can obviously make real upgrades in the summer. The Dallas Stars reached a Stanley Cup Final and a Conference Final based on two massive runs from Joe Pavelski, who they signed as a free agent in 2019. Alex Pietrangelo is the foundation of the Vegas Golden Knights defense, and they signing him in 2020 paid off with a Cup Final appearance. 

    But wow, free agency is a minefield that GMs love to run through like a sprinkler on a 100 degree day. Just look at some of the players who are just now hitting the free agent market for some cautionary examples. Milan Lucic is available for the first time in seven years, when the Edmonton Oilers gave him a seven-year, $42 million deal. 

    Or, hey, we don't even have to look that far. What led Minnesota to be in this buyout situation to begin with?

    Maybe it's okay for the Wild to sit this one out. We focus solely on the bad parts of Minnesota's cap crunch, and rightfully so. It's cost them Kevin Fiala's services, for example, which sure didn't help the Wild score goals this offseason. But there's a small bright side to the whole ordeal.

    It has the potential to save the Wild from themselves.

    How so? Let's look at another player whose contract just ran its course: Nick Foligno. Two offseasons ago, the Wild made a push to sign Marcus Foligno's brother in free agency. Like his little bro, Nick was big, tough, and even more skilled in his prime. 

    He was also too expensive for the cap-strapped Wild, then dealing with only around $5 million in dead cap (which seems like the good old days by comparison). The Boston Bruins met Nick's asking price, and they signed him to a two-year deal clocking in at a $3.8 million AAV.

    What did the Bruins get out of that deal? 12 goals and 39 points over two seasons, with exactly 1.0 Standings Points Above Replacement (SPAR), per Evolving-Hockey. If not for Parise and Suter's burdensome cap shackles, Nick might have landed in Minnesota. Any reasonable person will probably agree that the Wild didn't need another defense-first depth player. 

    You can see how an even worse salary situation can help them out in the long-term here. Minnesota's biggest needs are arguably at center and at defense. Ryan O'Reilly and J.T. Compher are the best centers on the free agent market this summer. How good of a bet are either of those guys?

    O'Reilly had a downright awful time for the St. Louis Blues last year, costing his team 0.3 SPAR and scoring 19 points in 40 games. Then he went to the Toronto Maple Leafs, where he looked like the old O'Reilly, scoring 20 points in 24 games during the regular season and playoffs. In his 13 regular season games alone, he was worth a whopping 1.9 SPAR!

    Which O'Reilly is his next team going to get? Who can say? But O'Reilly is 32, and Evolving-Hockey projects him to land a contract worth $5.5 million over three years. Is he going to be worth that as he ages into his mid-30s? Maybe, but he's in his decline phase and the constant in O'Reilly's career in Colorado, Buffalo, and now St. Louis is: Whenever things go poorly, he tends to get disengaged. 

    As for Compher, he's been an underrated player for a few years now, regularly putting up about 3 SPAR for the Colorado Avalanche. That finally came accompanied by a boost in his point totals, as he jumped from a previous career-high of 33 points to 52 last season. Just in time to hit the open market for a payday, and Evolving-Hockey projects he'll get a four-year deal worth around a $5.7 AAV.

    The problem with him is that his point totals were boosted by Colorado's limited depth and injuries. Indeed, Compher played 20:32 per night according to Natural Stat Trick, which ranks 14th among NHL forwards last year, right up there with superstars like Elias Pettersson and Matthew Tkachuk. It was also over three minutes a night over his previous career-high (17:29) and an even bigger jump over his 2021-22 season (16:19).

    Does Minnesota need that? Or Ryan O'Reilly, for that matter, who also isn't a particularly impactful scorer at 5-on-5. Both of those centers would represent a free agent splash, but neither would actually achieve an upgrade on the squad.

    Here are their numbers over the past three seasons, along with Minnesota's current centers:

    image.png

    In both terms of points and impact on the standings, neither center would immediately become Minnesota's No. 1 option. Compher wouldn't even displace the Wild's top-two centers, and that's not even accounting for Marco Rossi waiting in the wings. There might have been pressure to upgrade that spot if Minnesota could afford it. But they don't even have that, and there's no temptation to spend big on a center who doesn't help them.

    The same goes for their defense. The Wild are in a spot where they have to let Dumba walk in free agency. As Dumba's free agency drew closer, there's been a re-evaluation of his game, which was unfairly criticized for years. That's good, he was a very valuable player at his peak. But this revision of opinion came as he lost his offensive value nearly completely.

    image.png

    Dumba's ability to eat minutes on the blueline and important voice in the locker room is valuable enough that Minnesota won't close the door on re-signing him. But that's not a very good idea, even if the money wasn't an issue. 

    Again looking at Evolving-Hockey's projections, Dumba is in line to get a six-year deal worth around $6.25 million AAV. That's a lot, but the free agent market is relatively thin, and historically has been for right-shot defensemen. If dudes like Tyler Myers and Rasmus Ristolainen can command that much, it makes sense that Dumba can, too.

    Even on a shorter-term deal, in the three-to-four year range, Dumba is still in line to get more than $5 million a season. It just doesn't make sense to bring him back, given his offensive decline and the struggles Minnesota has concerning putting the puck in the net. Besides, with Jared Spurgeon well into his 30s and Jonas Brodin just entering them, the Wild are going to want to get younger, not older.

    This is why bringing Klingberg, 30, back at four years with a $5.6 million AAV is also a bad idea. Same with getting other free agents like Shayne Gostisbehere (30), Erik Gustafsson (31), and even Damon Severson (28). Even the best name on the market, Dmitry Orlov (31), doesn't line up with what the Wild's goal should be: to develop prospects and turn the keys over to a young blueline.

    Looking at a landscape of an extremely underwhelming free agent class, you start to think that maybe it's okay that the Wild are going to sit this one out.

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    Milan Lucic is available for the first time in seven years, when the Edmonton Oilers gave him a seven-year, $42 million deal. 

    Must be a typo which had me confused. He's been a Calgary Flame a far as I can remember which happens to be fairly short.

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    1 minute ago, Backwoodsbob said:

    Must be a typo which had me confused. He's been a Calgary Flame a far as I can remember which happens to be fairly short.

    Nvm, I see where you're at on this.

        Scoring     Goals Assists Shots                    
    Season Age Tm Lg GP G A PTS +/- PIM EV PPG SHG GWG EV PP SH SOG SPCT TSA TOI ATOI FOW FOL FO% BLK HIT TK GV Awards
    8 yrs   BOS NHL 566 139 203 342 94 772 119 20 0 26 164 39 0 952 14.6 1787 8909 15:44 159 196 44.8 183 1580 202 295  
    4 yrs   CGY NHL 283 35 48 83 -36 227 26 9 0 1 44 4 0 325 10.8 573 3545 12:32 65 87 42.8 69 714 87 139  
    3 yrs   EDM NHL 243 39 65 104 -24 221 22 17 0 4 46 19 0 396 9.8 762 3762 15:29 58 46 55.8 67 715 82 159  
    1 yr   LAK NHL 81 20 35 55 26 79 18 2 0 5 29 6 0 124 16.1 269 1396 17:14 7 13 35.0 22 244 22 48  
    Career   16 yrs
    2007-08 19 BOS NHL 77 8 19 27 -2 89 7 1 0 4 17 2 0 88 9.1 153 933 12:07 4 4 50.0 28 179 21 14 Calder-12
    2008-09 20 BOS NHL 72 17 25 42 17 136 15 2 0 3 19 6 0 97 17.5 174 1076 14:57 5 4 55.6 32 259 33 21  
    2009-10 21 BOS NHL 50 9 11 20 -7 44 9 0 0 2 10 1 0 72 12.5 119 718 14:21 3 11 21.4 14 136 12 17  
    2010-11 22 BOS NHL 79 30 32 62 28 121 25 5 0 7 23 9 0 173 17.3 340 1310 16:35 21 33 38.9 22 167 27 43 AS-8,Selke-40
    2011-12 23 BOS NHL 81 26 35 61 7 135 19 7 0 1 31 4 0 149 17.4 275 1379 17:02 14 16 46.7 26 201 25 46 AS-16
    2012-13 24 BOS NHL 46 7 20 27 8 75 7 0 0 0 18 2 0 79 8.9 172 778 16:55 17 18 48.6 16 139 20 37  
    2013-14 25 BOS NHL 80 24 35 59 30 91 21 3 0 5 26 9 0 153 15.7 279 1390 17:23 61 70 46.6 22 240 33 71 AS-11
    2014-15 26 BOS NHL 81 18 26 44 13 81 16 2 0 4 20 6 0 141 12.8 275 1325 16:21 34 40 45.9 23 259 31 46  
    2015-16 27 LAK NHL 81 20 35 55 26 79 18 2 0 5 29 6 0 124 16.1 269 1396 17:14 7 13 35.0 22 244 22 48  
    2016-17 28 EDM NHL 82 23 27 50 -3 50 11 12 0 3 14 13 0 175 13.1 310 1407 17:10 4 3 57.1 20 202 26 49  
    2017-18 29 EDM NHL 82 10 24 34 -12 80 7 3 0 1 20 4 0 147 6.8 282 1309 15:58 29 23 55.8 25 254 29 76  
    2018-19 30 EDM NHL 79 6 14 20 -9 91 4 2 0 0 12 2 0 74 8.1 170 1046 13:14 25 20 55.6 22 259 27 34  
    2019-20 31 CGY NHL 68 8 12 20 -6 54 3 5 0 1 9 3 0 83 9.6 144 907 13:20 20 26 43.5 20 198 19 42  
    2020-21 32 CGY NHL 56 10 13 23 -8 46 8 2 0 0 13 0 0 74 13.5 114 763 13:38 9 24 27.3 12 139 19 29  
    2021-22 33 CGY NHL 82 10 11 21 -9 84 8 2 0 0 10 1 0 95 10.5 171 1005 12:15 19 15 55.9 22 209 20 41  
    2022-23 34 CGY NHL 77 7 12 19 -13 43 7 0 0 0 12 0 0 73 9.6 144 871 11:18 17 22 43.6 15 168 29 27  
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    I don't mind sitting out the free agent market, at least this year. However, could we get something useful on the trade market? We don't get that option either, unless we get value.

    Looking at Capfriendly without going into much detail, it looks like under 1/2 the league will be dealing with the free agents. The others look like they will be struggling to sign their own. 

    It's not a very good free agent market for the teams, but equally so, this is a stinky year to be a free agent too. I see a lot of 1 year deals coming. 

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    9 forwards signed.  Duhaime and Shaw will make 11.  Need 2 more.  

    5 defenseman signed.  Faber will make 6.  Need 1 more.

    1 Goalie signed.  Need 1 more.

    So we have 4 positions to fill.  Dumba and Gus are probably too expensive to sign.  If we decide to go completely towards youth from IA.  Who is the most likely of candidates to play up?  

    My bet is Forwards Beckman and Walker.  I have no idea who will slot in at D or goalie.

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    2 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

    9 forwards signed.  Duhaime and Shaw will make 11.  Need 2 more.  

    Shaw will definitely be starting the year on IR after tearing his ACL again. So we will need 3 more.

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    Personally I think Addison has increased his value from the 2nd Round pick he was for Pittsburgh. His offense and special teams talent is nice. Potentially enough to interest a team who will overlook his defensive issues. If the Wild trade him it's one less RFA to sign and with Faber, it's possible Addison isn't a long-term fit.

    Dumba had defensive lapses early after being drafted but also showed signs we've not seen from Addison. I wonder if the Wild see Addison in the big picture as part of the future. My gut says no after his benching but he did get good NHL games this year so I don't see his progression as poor by any means.

    Addison is an asset to the Wild that might be easiest NOT to miss if Dumba stays. With Spurgeon and Faber will Addison be a 3rd pairing guy who plays the PP? Perhaps, but I would think the Wild might be able to get back a 2nd for Addison which would be great to help load up on centers if Addison could bring a 2023 2nd? I have a hard time envisioning a time when we say, "Dang, shoulda kept Addison."

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    I'm looking at Addison to help us move up in this draft, and I'd have to say a team like AZ should maybe take a shot at him. He is ready for NHL minutes, and they've got some scoring punch. Addison fits into their window of players around the same age. 

    Perhaps a package around Addison brings us that 2nd 1st rounder? Keep in mind, if so, we're looking at seeing that asset delivered in 2-3 seasons.

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    Is there any scenario where the Wild could make a blockbuster deal with AZ and come away with Logan Cooley? 

    The only thing I can come up with are via nefarious means!

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    I wouldnt mind if we could get a Bergeron 38  ,  for 2 years .  Wouldnt be a huge investment and being  38 he could share time .  Id like to get another C option  with expeirience .  Of ccourse it depends if another hard run with the Bs is his preference etc  .

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    14 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Is there any scenario where the Wild could make a blockbuster deal with AZ and come away with Logan Cooley? 

    The only thing I can come up with are via nefarious means!

    I'm good with nefarious in this case. Draft Moore along with it and I would be very happy. Only issue I see is I think Cooley is fairly small though doesn't really play small.

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    22 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Is there any scenario where the Wild could make a blockbuster deal with AZ and come away with Logan Cooley? 

    The only thing I can come up with are via nefarious means!

    Like shipping them the Target Center.  Sorry T-Wolves fans.  

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    16 hours ago, AKwildkraken said:

    Like shipping them the Target Center.  Sorry T-Wolves fans.  

    I doubt they would even want that dump. Really bad hockey arena and Woofies are looking to upgrade already after the redo. 

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    Let's stand pat this offseason. good chance to see what some of the borderline guys are made of and see if they fit us moving forward.

    Sign Gus Bus, Shaw and Duhey and let the rest walk. Addison clearly has fallen out of favor with our coaches so he will be gone. No need to resign Reaves, Sundquist or Steel and we don't have room in the salary for Nyquist, Dumba or Klingberg. 

    Walker, Beckman and Rossi all get a shot at the big show and all we really need to pick up is maybe a single 3rd pairing defenseman. Maybe we try a rotation of the Iowa guys and see if someone is ready. 

    I agree that this cap crunch might be a blessing in disguise, it allows us to see who will bear fruit in the prospect pool while tempering expectations.

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