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By Robert Brent -
The NHL news cycle is in a lull. Most of the roster-building for teams around the league is over. Some interesting contract disputes may be on the horizon, but they generally don't come to a head until camp. What are we, the diehard hockey fans, to do during this dry spell? We can over-analyze every last drop of discourse!
Confidence Slips in Wild’s Front-Office Competence
Enter The Athletic's NHL front-office confidence ranking. Each year, The Athletic sources fans to rank their confidence in NHL front offices around the league in several key factors. These factors include roster building, cap management, drafting and developing, trading, free agency, and vision.
In one of our recent pieces, you'd know that the Wild are losing fans' trust. When the rankings were released this offseason, Minnesota ranked 24th in the league. It’s important to note that the fans who vote in this survey represent an involved and hardcore section of the hockey fan base. However, if you're reading a blog with in-depth hockey coverage in mid-August, you're also probably a part of that base.
People have discussed Minnesota’s front-office issues at length. However, The Athletic's confidence survey reveals one silver lining for Bill Guerin and Co. Minnesota is considered one of the elite teams at drafting and developing, ranking sixth among public voting in the survey.
Deft Drafting
Before analyzing the Wild's recent draft results, I’ve set some parameters for measuring their success. Bill Guerin's first draft was in 2020, and since The Athletic's confidence survey encompasses the team's current front offices, only drafts that Guerin oversaw will be considered.
The Wild's draft patterns since 2020 have a record of solid drafting that has produced several legitimate prospects.
Steals and Blue Chips
One of the hallmarks of the Wild's drafting record is their ability to get prospects that appear to be more valuable than their draft position. A great example is this year's draft, where they took Zeev Buium out of the University of Denver. Buium was the fourth-ranked North American skater by central scouting, and Minnesota acquired him at 12th overall. Buium got the headlines, but the club also selected Ryder Ritchie, the 19th-ranked North American skater, at 45th overall.
Drafting a blue-chip prospect without a top-ten pick is not exclusive to this year's draft. The Wild have selected Jesper Wallstedt, Marat Khusnutdinov, Rasmus Kumpulainen, Riley Heidt, and Danila Yurov with the 20th overall pick or later in their drafts. That class of players is expected to make significant contributions, some as early as this upcoming season.
Wallstedt could become Minnesota’s starting goaltender, while Marat Khusnutdinov may be an under-the-radar Calder contender. The Wild have also stocked their farm system with even more tantalizing prospects. If you want to read more about them, you can do so here.
Aggression vs. Reaching
Minnesota has banked high-end talent, but it's also crucial to recognize that the drafting record isn’t perfect. While the aggression they show at the draft has led to steals, it can also turn into reaching on prospects. The Wild drafted Charlie Stramel in the first round of the 2023 draft, even though many experts projected Stramel to go later. After a rough season at Wisconsin, he's struggled to find his footing in the NCAA. The club still hopes Stramel can develop further, but there's warranted anxiety about his development.
Carson Lambos is another player hoping for better results in his second professional season. His struggle to find top-four minutes in Iowa last season may be a slight cause for concern. Lambos and Stramel are too young to give up on, but we must acknowledge that they may end up as reaches for the team if their development doesn't accelerate.
Questions Surround Development
Drafting is a clear strength of the Wild, but the category in the confidence survey is drafting and developing. Development could be defined by graduating prospects through the minor league system, turning them into productive NHL players.
Some people who follow the team have expressed concern over Minnesota’s ability to turn prospects into NHL players. In some ways, that concern is warranted. The Wild have a bevy of high-end talent who won’t see NHL minutes due to a log jam at the bottom of the lineup. How can these players reach their promise if they don't have a place to play? It's a fair question, but it may also be premature. Most of the team’s best young prospects are just that – young players who could benefit from further seasoning.
When you compare the number of prospects the Wild have graduated to other teams that rank similarly in the confidence poll, it becomes clear that they're developing at comparable rates.
Notes: The following draft data represents the team's selections since Bill Guerin's first draft in 2020. The team ranked fifth in the confidence poll, The Utah Hockey Club, was not included due to having one draft's worth of data.
Takeaways From Comparison
A few things jump out when looking at other teams in a similar class. First, the Wild have the fewest total NHL games from their prospects. They also have one of the highest average draft positions. Besides the Carolina Hurricanes, the other teams in this class have had little team success in recent years. That means they regularly have the opportunity to take the best talent in the draft. It makes sense they'd be getting earlier returns on their investments.
Conversely, the Wild would benefit from giving some of their young prospects more NHL minutes. Jesper Wallstedt, Marat Khusnutdinov, and Liam Ohgren should all have the opportunity to earn NHL games this year. Minnesota would benefit from this injection of youth if they can find the space.
Are the Wild Good At Drafting and Developing?
Is the fans' confidence in the Wild's drafting and development warranted? It will be difficult to fully tell until the players are old enough to judge their realized quality, but from our small sample size, yes. Minnesota has maximized a relatively low number of draft picks and acquired some high-end prospects.
Many of their prospects should start to make an impact this season. Blue chippers like Zeev Buium will be close behind. As evidenced by the confidence poll, there are other reasons to be concerned by the Wild's front office. Drafting isn't one of those reasons. Minnesota’s young core has the potential to be one of the best young groups the team has ever had. Now, finding spots for them to play and reach their full potential is crucial.
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