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  • Matt Duchene Is the Wild's Last, Best Hope At Center


    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    Once upon a time, when certified brain genius Paul Fenton ran the Minnesota Wild, the team sought to address its long-running center woes in free agency. Fenton reached out to a soon-to-be-35-year-old Joe Pavelski, a five-time 30-goal scorer with the San Jose Sharks. Pavelski's age made him a risk, but coming off a 38-tally season, it was one worth taking for the Wild.

    Or, it would have been, had Pavelski bothered to call Fenton back. It was a shame for the Wild, and not just because we never found out what animal Fenton would compare Pavelski to. Pavelski was the veteran presence on a resurgent Dallas Stars team that made the Stanley Cup Final and two more Western Conference Finals showings with him in the fold. He averaged 27 goals and 68 points per 82 games in Dallas, and even had something left in the tank when he retired after his age-39 season. 

    Six years after Pavelski spurned Minnesota for Dallas, the Wild are in a similar spot: Desperate to upgrade at center. However, this time, they have an opportunity to make a Pavelski-type move that would even strike a blow to the hated Stars. Matt Duchene is a pending free agent, and he might just be the last, best hope the Wild have at upgrading the position.

    Duchene's free agency presents a similar proposition to the one Minnesota faced when pursuing Pavelski. While Pavelski was 35 and averaged 30 goals and 66 points in his previous three seasons before leaving the Sharks, Duchene is 34 and has averaged 26 goals and 68 points in his last three seasons. That includes Duchene's 2024-25 campaign, where he potted 30 goals and 82 points. You're buying his decline years, but he's showing that he's still got it... at least for now.

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    Duchene doesn't entirely fit the bill of center that Bill Guerin has said he's looking for this offseason. He's not a big, two-way player who will help take the pressure off Joel Eriksson Ek in the defensive zone. But the things he does well are sorely needed on a Wild team that has been desperate for offense since trading Kevin Fiala three summers ago.

    Namely, Duchene pushes the pace unlike anyone on the Wild not named "Kirill Kaprizov." The center might not be quite the burner he was as a young player, but he can still pick his spots to turn on the jets. NHL EDGE has him in the 87th percentile in bursts of skating over 20 miles per hour, which enables him to remain an elite threat on the rush. 

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    Signing Duchene would enable Minnesota to shore up their biggest weakness -- the ability to generate scoring chances in transition -- while taking away from Dallas' biggest strength... which is generating scoring chances in transition. Kaprizov is also one of the league's best at creating off the rush, but he hasn't had a teammate who has matched that pace since Fiala was in St. Paul. 

    With Duchene in the fold, the Wild would go from a team with few options at center to one that suddenly has depth down the middle. Suppose they can keep Marco Rossi in the fold. Then, they'd have the option to load Kaprizov and Duchene together on the top line. Or they could pair Kaprizov with Rossi and Mats Zuccarello, and give Matt Boldy a linemate who can carry the transition game, giving Minnesota two lines that can create with speed.

    Then, instead of giving Joel Eriksson Ek a break from tough defensive assignments, Minnesota can ice him on a third line with Marcus Foligno and either fellow Swede Liam Öhgren or Ryan Hartman. Either have the capability of forming a terrorizing trio in the bottom-six, the kind the Wild had incredible success with as recently as two years ago. 

    There are two big barriers to this bright future at center. The first is the Stars. They want Duchene back, but they're gonna have to commit this time around, it seems. Duchene returned to Dallas on a cheap one-year deal last year, but a team like the Wild could offer the center a chance to compete and cash in.

    That is, if the Wild are willing to be the ones to let Duchene cash in. That's going to depend on Bill Guerin's risk tolerance. It's not often that a Pavelski comes around and is, essentially, the same player at 39 as he was at 34. The hope would be that Duchene would be a similarly freakish athlete, and that modern medicine can keep star players elite to an advanced age... but that's still a huge bet.

    Especially if the Wild have to overpay to land Duchene, and they might just have to. Evolving-Hockey's most likely outcome for Duchene is that he'll get a two-year deal, which they'd peg at a $5.89 million cap hit. But those odds are just 25%. They rate his odds of landing a four-year pact at 24%, for which he'd receive an AAV of around $7.5 million. That's a year longer than, for example, the Colorado Avalanche were willing to go willing to go on Brock Nelson. But that might just be the price of admission to wrest Duchene away from Dallas.

    Would it be worth it? It's a high-risk play with considerable upside. If Duchene resembles Pavelski in his mid-30s, then he can absolutely transform the Wild. Remember when the Wild first brought in Eric Staal, and what a force multiplier that was for Minnesota. With that stabilizing top center in the lineup, other players could sink into roles that better suited them.

    It could be the same for Minnesota with Duchene in the fold for the next few seasons. The 2024-25 versions of Rossi and Eriksson Ek were centers who could pass for a top-line threat in the right circumstances. What do those players look like when they're asked to carry a little bit less of the load and focus on the things they do best? Instead of debating whether they can handle a 1C role, suddenly, you'd find yourself marveling at what a loaded middle-six the Wild have.

    Could it blow up in their face? Of course. But the Wild were seemingly willing to take on a similar amount of risk in Nelson. They were right to attempt to make the same risk six years ago with Pavelski. Duchene might not be the Wild's Plan A, but he might be the best chance for the team to upgrade at center for the foreseeable future, and it'd be very reasonable for them to go for it.

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    Zuccarello is 37 and putting up 50-60 points seasons.  You just never know if you get a Zucc or Spurgeon or a Goligoski.

    Wouldn't be my first choice (Rossi and Ehlers is), but centers don't grow on trees.

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    The previous relationship between Hynes and Duchene in Nashville could either work for the Wild or against them, not sure?  If we were willing to go with Nelson, this shouldn't be that far off, there really isn't that many better options available with the cap increasing for all teams next year.  Unfortunately, I'm not expecting BG to pull off anything better than this at the present moment.

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    Could the Wild / BG give Duchene a solid base with incentives... a prove-it-contract???

    Say, $5.5-mill for the base & up to $2.5-mill in incentives?  And then make sure they leave the $2.5-mill portion in their salary cap reserves. Don't think Dallas could go that high. 

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    1 hour ago, LoganPk63 said:

    Could the Wild / BG give Duchene a solid base with incentives... a prove-it-contract???

    Say, $5.5-mill for the base & up to $2.5-mill in incentives?  And then make sure they leave the $2.5-mill portion in their salary cap reserves. Don't think Dallas could go that high. 

    Dallas doesn't have space to really do much.  They have 8 forwards, 6 defenseman, and 2 goalies under contract and they have just short of $5M to work with.

    Unless they move a larger contract out, they wouldn't be able to bring back Duchene unless he's willing to sign for league minimum.

    I think they are hoping he is willing to sign for cheap, but after being willing to sign for less twice, I don't think he does it again considering Dallas has been willing to pay other players more in that span.  Then they get to him and say "we'd love to have you back, but things are a little tight..." 

    I think he ends up a free agent, but I feel like it's a long shot that he'd be interested in signing here.  He seems to like that area of the country in that he see specifically wanted to be in Nashville, and then specifically zeroed in on Dallas.  I'd think St. Louis or Carolina or a Florida team has a better chance of signing him than we would.  More than likely we would have to overpay a bit if we want to sign him.

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    Evolving hockey's salary model works for a young player coming into his prime.  The logic being a shorter deal allows a player to sign another contract.  Hence, less term less salary.  With an old player its borderline retarded.

    Who would pay MORE per year and MORE term for a 34 year old player...😂😂😂😂.  

    This is Duchene's last contract.

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    So here is the thing. Duchene is a good player but he also benefits from being on a really really good team. For some reason it feels like he goes in a pattern where his first year with a new team he does ok, but the next year he seems to build chemistry and does really well after that. The issue is he’s 34. He also did horrendous in the playoffs this year.

    I really don’t think this would be a good add because I really don’t think he has much in the tank. Think about how many players are really good at 35. They definitely don’t usually have too many good years after that. If there was someway to get him cheap, then sure but don’t overpay this guy.

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    Originally I had thought that we had a chance to get him to solidify the middle, and thought he was doing 1 year deals. This apparently wasn't accurate and he wants term now. I had him targeted once Nelson signed and thought signing him and Sturm would solidify our center depth and size.

    Why Sturm? He's an adequate skater, large bodied center who wins faceoffs and plays in the bottom 6. I feel for what this team wants to do, he is a better fit than both Hartzy and Gaudreau at center. 

    I do believe the bottom 6 guys who are mainly 9 guys need to be thinned out to 6, meaning 3 need to be traded out, and more if we're giving an opportunity to the kids to claim a roster spot. To me, the last couple would be traded out after camp if they lost their spot. 

    As far as Gaudreau goes, I think he's undersized and probably would be the guy Guerin asks "where do you want to go...unless you want to go to Des Moines and help us groom some kids?" 

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    On 6/13/2025 at 11:32 AM, Scalptrash said:

    Perfect!.....for Billy.

    It's a joke but I'm sure he is on Billy's list. He will overpay for him, Bennet, or boeser and the Wild will be right where they were.

    None of these players move the needle. He makes a move like this, it's fans in the stands. Not moving the needle.

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