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  • Matt Boldy's Contract Only Gets Better From Here

    Image courtesy of Stephen R. Sylvanie - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    By Tony Abbott -

    You have to look under the hood a bit to notice, but Matt Boldy is coming off his worst NHL season. His 27 goals and 73 points masked a regression in his ability to drive offense and defense, going from elite in both categories to merely fine. At a time when he had half a season to assume the mantle of The Guy on the team with Kirill Kaprizov out, he didn't quite deliver.

    It's likely to be the worst season we'll see from Boldy in a long time, health permitting. Still, when you look at his hefty $7 million salary? Boldy was a clear bargain.

    Make it as simple or complicated as you'd like. Boldy produced the 34th-most points among forwards on the 62nd-highest cap hit. We're talking Tage Thompson/Sebastian Aho-type production for the price of Troy Terry. According to The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn, he produced $8.6 million in value on his $7 million cap hit. 

    Speaking of Luszczyszyn, he's put Boldy's bargain into the August news cycle with his list of the 10 best contracts in the NHL. Boldy's deal snuck in at ninth place, with Luszczyszyn projecting it to net Minnesota $27 million in surplus value over the next five years. As the years on the deal wind down, it'll likely fall out of the top 10, but the deal itself will only keep getting better for the Wild.

    Boldy inked his contract during the post-COVID flat cap stagnation, accounting for 8.38% of the $83.5 million salary cap. We already know the salary cap is going to be for the next three years, and over that time, it'll be up around 37.5%. Boldy's contract will be a minuscule slice of Minnesota's overall pie very, very soon.

    Here's the percentage of cap space Boldy's taking up, as well as the 2023-24 cap equivalent, over the first five years of his contract:

    2023-24: 8.38% ($7.00M)
    2024-25: 7.95% ($6.64M)
    2025-26: 7.33% ($6.12M)
    2026-27: 6.73% ($5.62M)
    2027-28: 6.17% ($5.15M)

    In just three years, Boldy's salary is going to be about the same cap percentage as, for instance, Morgan Geekie ($5.5M, 5.8% of a $95.5M cap). That's what? A decent second/third-line tweener on a good team? Boldy's a bona-fide top-line forward, with the potential to ascend into the conversation with the league's best wingers if he takes another step.

    The value Boldy brings with his contract has already helped the Wild make the playoffs despite some major salary cap hell. Next season, Minnesota will get the peak bang for its buck between his and Kaprizov's salaries.

    These are the top-10 teams for points-per-game from their top-two scorers over the past two seasons, along with their combined cap percentage in 2025-26:

    1. Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl, EDM: 3.05 (28.7%)
    2. Nikita Kucherov/Brayden Point, TBL: 2.76 (19.9%)
    3. Nathan MacKinnon/Martin Necas, COL: 2.47 (20.0%)
    4. Artemiy Panarin/J.T. Miller, NYR: 2.41 (20.6%)
    5. Mitch Marner/Jack Eichel, VGK: 2.41 (23.0%)
    6. Auston Matthews/William Nylander, TOR: 2.36 (25.9%)
    7. KIRILL KAPRIZOV/MATT BOLDY, MIN: 2.21 (16.8%)
    8. Jack Hughes/Jesper Bratt, NJD: 2.21 (16.6%)
    9. Mikko Rantanen/Jason Robertson, DAL: 2.17 (20.7%)
    10. Sam Reinhart/Sasha Barkov, FLA: 2.16 (19.5%)

    That's just ridiculous value for next season, carried in large part by Kaprizov's $9 million salary in the final year of his deal. Going forward, though, Boldy's going to carry a lot more of the weight. Boldy's deal will allow the Wild to pay Kaprizov top dollar without suffering with the salary cap.

    The upper limit to estimates on Kaprizov's next cap hit is $15 million, which would (currently) make him the league's highest-paid player going into 2026-27. That's a lot of money, and a big chunk of the cap. But with Boldy's salary, that's only $22 million between the two.

    We don't know the salary cap beyond the next two seasons, but here's what percentage of the cap $22 million would take up in...

    2026-27: 21.2%
    2027-28: 19.3%

    The Wild are going to be paying their top two forwards not much more than a fifth of their salary cap, at worst, for the next three years. Beyond that, the number goes down from there. Boldy will have two more years locked in at $7 million per season, and that's going to be excellent news for Minnesota.

    This crop of young talent that Wild fans have been waiting for is basically all here, starting in September. Within two years, all of these players will need to get paid. Marco Rossi is already looking for his next deal. Jesper Wallstedt and David Jiříček will look for a raise next year, and Zeev Buium, Liam Öhgren, and Danila Yurov are up to get paid two summers from now.

    If those players are anywhere near what we think they'll be, it'd be tough to keep this core together, especially if the Wild are going to make some sort of splashy move to add a star player. Paying Boldy $7 million instead of $10 or $12 over the next five years could mean the difference between keeping or losing a key piece of Minnesota's puzzle. They still have to be smart in their moves and investments, but being smart with Boldy gives them a hell of a head start.

    By Tony Abbott  

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

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    SkolWild73

    I remember when Boldy got this contract, there were many that thought it was too much.  It was a gamble that looks like it will pay off huge dividends.  I know I might be in the minority here, but that is why I feel locking up Rossi on a long-term deal is worth the risk.  If they were able to get Rossi on at 7 years and $6.5M AAV, this could be a bargain contract also in a year or two.  I also do not feel it would be an untradable contract if we did decide to move on from Rossi in a couple of years if we need the money for Yurov, Ohgren, Buium and Wallstedt, unless he completely regresses.  We have the space for this year and next at that term.  I think it is worth the gamble.  If we sign a bridge deal of 2-3 years and he keeps improving his game, then we will be stuck paying a lot more.

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    1Brotherbill

    Does anyone think Kirill is working a deal for only three years?  So, 3 by 15, then go into free agency to get the next big contract, like 20 million.  If Boldy plays to his potential of a 50 50 guy that would be a solid 10 million plus when his contract is up.  Rossi will just be entering his free agency period after probably being qualified the next three years, look at a 10 plus contract as well.  Ohgren, Yurov, Wallstedt, Gustavson, Buium,  random player from Iowa that managed to escape.  The salary cap for the Wild will never be easy.  

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    Imyourhuckleberry
    6 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

    If they were able to get Rossi on at 7 years and $6.5M AAV, this could be a bargain contract also in a year or two.  I also do not feel it would be an untradable contract if we did decide to move on from Rossi in a couple of years if we need the money for Yurov, Ohgren, Buium and Wallstedt, unless he completely regresses.  We have the space for this year and next at that term.  I think it is worth the gamble.  If we sign a bridge deal of 2-3 years and he keeps improving his game, then we will be stuck paying a lot more.

    I don't think his agent will recommend he signs any 7-year deal for under $7M.

    That's why I suspect Rossi will sign a 4 or 5 year deal more in the range of $5.25M to $6.4M per season. That would get him to unrestricted free agency while under 30 years of age. He'd have a lot of money in the bank with the security of a medium length deal, and the freedom to choose his future path.

    Rossi would be heading to unrestricted free agency around the same age that Kaprizov is now, which seems like a lucrative situation.

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    fikifuka

    I can provide some actual quotes (July 30th) from Marco Rossis tv-interview with Austrian TV ORF. Not really a burner but ...: "No contract yet, true, but thats the NHL business. MIN has the rights on me. You have to be patient. I leave it to my agent (Ian Pulver) and let him do his work. I hope the two can find a solution before the camp starts in September. ...Yes, I was very disappointed what happened in the PO. It was not ok what happened. I dont want to go into the details too much. But I know that I performed good, even after beeing dropped to 4th line, provided 2 goals, 1 assist. But this is stuff from months ago. I'm fully focused on the here and now and the future."

    Rossi trains with his personal fitness coach in his home area in Vorarlberg (western part of Austria) since middle of June and conducts an on-ice training camp for kids too. He'll be present at a second kid-camp in Graz/Austria next week.

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    SkolWild73
    5 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    I don't think his agent will recommend he signs any 7-year deal for under $7M.

    That's why I suspect Rossi will sign a 4 or 5 year deal more in the range of $5.25M to $6.4M per season. That would get him to unrestricted free agency while under 30 years of age. He'd have a lot of money in the bank with the security of a medium length deal, and the freedom to choose his future path.

    Rossi would be heading to unrestricted free agency around the same age that Kaprizov is now, which seems like a lucrative situation.

    Probably not, but one can hope.  

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    mnfaninnc
    15 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

    I remember when Boldy got this contract, there were many that thought it was too much.  It was a gamble that looks like it will pay off huge dividends.

    Count me as one of the many. I would have bridged him. However, in exchange for the term, I think Boldy gave us a pretty good AAV discount. 

    As it would have worked out, I thought a 2 year bridge would have been best, just like I do for Rossi. That means this offseason, we would be signing Boldy to his long term deal. What would it be? 

    This inside information that Guerin did have was non public knowledge of where the salary cap was going. That is now public and he doesn't have the same stealth he had with Boldy for a Rossi negotiation. 

    I still say that Rossi needs to prove more. Bridge him.

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    mnfaninnc
    12 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    Does anyone think Kirill is working a deal for only three years?

    I still think Kaprizov is thinking about his commitment term. 3 years sounds awful short, I was thinking 4, but that's offset by the peace of mind of 8. What would help things on his side is if the last 3 seasons of 8 he had little trade protection, just in case things go south on this team. He could then escape with an understanding from Guerin that he will be placed with a contender.

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    SkolWild73
    6 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Count me as one of the many. I would have bridged him. However, in exchange for the term, I think Boldy gave us a pretty good AAV discount. 

    As it would have worked out, I thought a 2 year bridge would have been best, just like I do for Rossi. That means this offseason, we would be signing Boldy to his long term deal. What would it be? 

    This inside information that Guerin did have was non public knowledge of where the salary cap was going. That is now public and he doesn't have the same stealth he had with Boldy for a Rossi negotiation. 

    I still say that Rossi needs to prove more. Bridge him.

    I would guess Boldy would be getting a minimum of $9M

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