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  • Is It Time To Hit the Panic Button On Yakov Trenin?


    Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
    Luke Sims

    Below is a summary of Yakov Trenin’s season so far. The Russian winger has not lived up to the four-year, $14 million deal general manager Bill Guerin signed him to in the offseason. 

    • 0 goals 
    • 1 assist 
    • 11 shots
    • 31 hits
    • 7.82 PK TOI  
    • 12 games
    • $3.5 million AVV

    Trenin is not known for scoring points. He’s a physical forward who’s a defensive stalwart and can contribute to the penalty kill. Trenin has been sound defensively, but his foot speed and physicality have been lacking, and the Wild have gotten almost nothing from him offensively. 

    He has the same amount of points as Filip Gustavsson: one. Gus has a goal, though. While that is an objectively funny stat, Trenin is not a guy who scores much. Throughout his six-year NHL career, he has a career with a .267 point percentage per game and 83 points in his 311 games. 

    Trenin has been a consistent goal scorer in the NHL so far. He’s been fairly consistent, scoring at least 12 and no more than 17 goals in his first three full seasons. However, he scored 17 playing for John Hynes with the Nashville Predators. 

    He may be taking some time to adjust to Hynes’s system. Theoretically, though, he should already be familiar with it. Trenin played under Hynes in his first three seasons with the Predators. The Wild signed him to play the same role he played in Nashville: a hard-nosed, forechecking penalty killer who can occasionally chip in some goals. 

    Trenin has never scored more than 24 points in a season. Still, he’s on pace for a two. His only real saving grace is that he’s second on the team in hits behind Marcus Foligno

    The big 6-foot-2, 200 lbs. forward has not been in the most favorable position to score, and his linemates have not produced either. Still, he’s been noticeably behind the play.

    Foligno has been Trenin's most common linemate. Freddy Gaudreau, Ryan Hartman, and occasionally Marat Khusnutdinov have centered their line.

    Gaudreau and Hartman have played well. They have had bounce-back campaigns, but Foligno has three points in 12 games, which is better than Trenin – but only marginally. Foligno has been noticeable on the forecheck and in throwing big hits all over the ice. It’s hard to watch a Wild game and find an excellent play from Trenin, whether he has the puck or not. 

    The Wild recently demoted Trenin to the fourth line with Khusnutdinov and fellow newcomer Jakub Lauko. Still, Trenin hasn’t been any more productive. The Wild called up AHL forward Mikey Milne, who could potentially fill in for Trenin on the fourth line during their three-game road trip. 

    So, Trenin is likely on his way to the press box. Are there reasons for optimism about Trenin, or was this a bad contract? 

    He’s had a slow start, and at this point, you'd like to see that $14 million elsewhere. Still, some stats can shed a positive light on an otherwise decrepit start for the former second-round pick. 

    Trenin hasn’t put up numbers on the scoresheet, but he has been putting up some respectable expected goals numbers in his 12 games. Trenin’s 58.52 xGF% is third among Wild forwards, and his xGA/60 of 1.29 is second only to Gaudreau. Trenin has been solid in his own zone. While the plays have not yet turned into goals, there is reason for optimism to move forward. 

    Trenin’s start has not been what anyone wanted. Still, a moment to step out of the lineup and reset gives him time to take a deep breath and get his offensive game right. 

    All stats and data via HockeyDB, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and Cap Wages unless otherwise noted. 

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    1 hour ago, Protec said:

    Yeah they're capable of a bad game but they're not exactly proving Guerin is a terrible GM.

    I'm coming back around on Guerin and am raising his mid-term grade.  The team looks like it's humming so far thru start of this season.  I'm giving Hynzy some of the credit (and Guerin indirectly for the hire).  97 playing at an all-world caliber so far get's credit.  Boldy stair stepping from budding star to legit star (97 is super star status) get's credit.  Foligno and Fred not being 100% dead weight get's credit.  GUS definitely gets credit for being a different player than last year.  Again very happy with the boys so far.  Winning still cures all ills and makes everyone look smart. Now if 97 comes back down to earth, GUS reverts to last year GUS, couple injuries occur and this group settles into a 50% win rate for next 40 games narrowly missing playoffs OR squeeking in and getting shit-hammered in 1st round....this hot start will have proven to be a mirage.  That's why they play the games.

    But the report card is in on Trenin and he's a total bust.  I will not wait for him to "come around" or "adjust to the system".  This dude is a dud for next four seasons.  I'd feel good about him as Foligno's back-up but he so rarely makes solid contact that he's not even effective at that.  He's just a 5th Wild skater doing long slow curls around the ice 3 seconds behind the play.

    Edited by Pewterschmidt
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    Lets go grab Crosby next year, hes got 2 years left 9 mill ea ,  nearing 40 but plays like a 32 year old sure he has a no trade clause but would he be dead set about staying there ,  Trenin isnt the needle mover anyways  has no trade limits can be traded in 1234 years .

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    12 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

    I'm trying to give Trenin the benefit of the doubt.  I don't think he is actually as bad as he looks.

    I do think his signing follows the typical BG trend of 1M too much for 1Y too long for unskilled physical players.

    Except in this case it was 2 million too much and 2 years too long...🤦‍♂️

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    14 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    I'm coming back around on Guerin and am raising his mid-term grade.  The team looks like it's humming so far thru start of this season.  I'm giving Hynzy some of the credit (and Guerin indirectly for the hire).  97 playing at an all-world caliber so far get's credit.  Boldy stair stepping from budding star to legit star (97 is super star status) get's credit.  Foligno and Fred not being 100% dead weight get's credit.  GUS definitely gets credit for being a different player than last year.  Again very happy with the boys so far.  Winning still cures all ills and makes everyone look smart. Now if 97 comes back down to earth, GUS reverts to last year GUS, couple injuries occur and this group settles into a 50% win rate for next 40 games narrowly missing playoffs OR squeeking in and getting shit-hammered in 1st round....this hot start will have proven to be a mirage.  That's why they play the games.

    But the report card is in on Trenin and he's a total bust.  I will not wait for him to "come around" or "adjust to the system".  This dude is a dud for next four seasons.  I'd feel good about him as Foligno's back-up but he so rarely makes solid contact that he's not even effective at that.  He's just a 5th Wild skater doing long slow curls around the ice 3 seconds behind the play.

    Another compliment I’ll give to Guerin is the Middleton signing at 4.35 aav. Even though I am a midzy fan at the time I was hoping we could flip him for a middle six forward to help out but watching and play this season as our only big dman I’m glad we kept him because his game is getting more stout each season and at 4.35 that’s a high value contract in my opinion

    Edited by Pewterschmidt
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    Getting more out of Trenin is somewhat on the coach IMO.

    If he's scored goals in the past, what's the difference now?

    MN is using him in a role that kinda buries him in low-scoring opportunity spots.

    I've been vocal about the Wild having better balance. When Kaprizov has a little slowdown, who's stepping up? The recent loss to CHI and the lack of goals against LA makes you wonder how will MN maintain their pace?

    Did Guerin make up for lack of size with Trenin at the expense of offense? Yeah. Are Knudi or Rossi crummy players? Not really but if the Wild need to compensate for size and toughness, a superior strategy is to get the balance with upgrades that comes from better overall players.

    Trenin is an example of a guy who isn't Mason Marchment,(5pts last night) same as NoJo isn't Peter Forsberg or Tomas Holmstrom. Rossi isn't Marty St.Louis, and Knudi isn't Larianov. The Wild have about half a dozen guys, who could be upgraded quite easily. Until the money becomes available or the prospects show up for NHL hockey, we'll have to continue to hope for the best with the current guys. Some of them aren't gonna meet expectations plain and simple. My point is more that the team overall is stronger and better balanced. Last season Dewey2 had a hat-trick one game but only reached 19pts as a 5'10" penalty killer/grinder. Duhaime wasn't much different. I'm not saying Guerin didn't overpay, just that Trenin does bring something the Wild need and I think he could be better fit into a spot that gets more from him. Plus there's the playoff factor which isn't considered in the "what have you done for me lately" debate.

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    23 minutes ago, Protec said:

    My point is more that the team overall is stronger and better balanced. Last season Dewey2 had a hat-trick one game but only reached 19pts as a 5'10" penalty killer/grinder. Duhaime wasn't much different. I'm not saying Guerin didn't overpay, just that Trenin does bring something the Wild need and I think he could be better fit into a spot that gets more from him.

    I don't disagree with any of your points especially the bit I quoted above.  The Dewey's proved to be bubble NHL'rs after their years of 4th line tryouts.  And my beef isn't even so much that Trenin's AAV & term are double his market value.  The issue is that given Guerin's self inflicted cap situation his trade's signings all have to be net positive in terms of value add to the lineup.  Trenin brings literally nothing based on the games i've seen.  The fact that he's a big body is not relevant if he cannot join the play.  He won't even drive d-men thru the end board to finish his checks.  But P-Corn, Hynzy is encouraging team not to take penalties...I get that but then Trenin literally brings nothing.  Guerin should have brought up a 22 year old 4th line banger and put the incremental $3M somewhere else in lineup.

    Is Trenin going to wreck this season?  Of course not, but the fact that he's teetering on being a healthy scratch 20 games into his first Wild 4 year contract is an indictment.

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    12 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    I don't disagree with any of your points especially the bit I quoted above.  The Dewey's proved to be bubble NHL'rs after their years of 4th line tryouts.  And my beef isn't even so much that Trenin's AAV & term are double his market value.  The issue is that given Guerin's self inflicted cap situation his trade's signings all have to be net positive in terms of value add to the lineup.  Trenin brings literally nothing based on the games i've seen.  The fact that he's a big body is not relevant if he cannot join the play.  He won't even drive d-men thru the end board to finish his checks.  But P-Corn, Hynzy is encouraging team not to take penalties...I get that but then Trenin literally brings nothing.  Guerin should have brought up a 22 year old 4th line banger and put the incremental $3M somewhere else in lineup.

    Is Trenin going to wreck this season?  Of course not, but the fact that he's teetering on being a healthy scratch 20 games into his first Wild 4 year contract is an indictment.

    I haven't been able to watch 100% of every game either but I've seen Trenin drawing the ire of opponents and getting some chances. My belief is that he'll find some mojo and keep scoring pace with NoJo who's pedigree and position on L2 is a greater expectation. It might be a cross your fingers type statement but for a guy who's scored 10-20 goals before at the NHL level, I don't believe his first 14 games in MN are unforgivable or a 100% indictment of the next 350+ games to come. 😁

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