Is Guerin's Plan Putting Too Much Pressure On the Wild's Prospects?

Over the past few years, the Minnesota Wild have been stuck in the NHL’s middle class. Always a threat to make the playoffs but never a true contender. The Wild have been bridesmaids in the hockey hierarchy, and owner Craig Leipold wants that to change.

In The Athletic, Michael Russo outlined Leipold’s desire for general manager Bill Guerin to devise a five-year plan to win a Stanley Cup. While the bulk of the work will take place in the next calendar year, Guerin has already begun assembling the team he wants.

It started with extensions for Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, and Mats Zuccarello immediately before last season started. It continued with extensions for Jacob Middleton and Brock Faber this summer. Then the plan took another step this week, signing Jesper Wallstedt to a two-year, $4.4 million ($2.2 AAV) contract extension.

While Leipold told Russo that July 1, 2025, will feel like “Christmas,” it’s clear that Guerin believes he has many pieces to build a Cup contender. But it may repeat a chapter from the Wild’s history in that he, like Chuck Fletcher before him, could be relying too heavily on a group of prospects.

It starts with Wallstedt’s new contract. Wild fans were happy to see the 21-year-old remain under team control through the 2026-27 season, and this year should be the start of his ascension into a franchise goaltender.

The plan entering the season is for Wallstedt to serve as the third goalie behind Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson. While a role isn’t rich with playing time, the Wild can get him regular time with their AHL affiliate in Iowa while occasionally mixing him into an NHL game.

If this season is about Wallstedt getting his feet wet, next year should be about jumping into the deep end. Gustavsson will be entering the final year of a three-year, $11.25 million extension signed at the beginning of last season, but the Wild have to be hoping Wallstedt will be ready to carry that role.

If that’s the case, Gustavsson could have a career arc similar to Jeremy Swayman. The Boston Bruins took Swayman in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, and he debuted as a 22-year-old with 10 games in the 2020-21 season. He has averaged just over 38 starts in the past three seasons. Armed with a .916 save percentage, Swayman was ready to head to the negotiation table this summer and walked away with an eight-year, $66 million contract.

Should Wallstedt perform like Swayman, the Wild will have a good problem in two years. But Swayman is also in the top range of outcomes. 

If Wallstedt’s .910 save percentage represents the goalie he could become at the NHL level, they could be looking at a contract north of $4 million. That's especially true because we’ve already seen Gustavsson cash in with a contract worth $3.75 million AAV with a .920 save percentage at age 24.

The Florida Panthers are paying 23-year-old Spencer Knight $4.5 million AAV, and he has a .906 save percentage after 57 starts. The Buffalo Sabres gave Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen a five-year deal with a $4.75 million AAV after 101 career games and a .903 save percentage.

You could look at this and say So what? However, paying an above-average goaltender can have consequences. That's especially true considering the Wild’s cap situation after the buyouts.

Let’s say that Wallstedt will make $5 million on his new contract. According to CapWages, that would put Minnesota with $56.9 million in total contracts and $40.1 million in cap space entering the 2025-26 season. Those numbers sound glorious to a franchise that has been buried in cap penalties the last three years but other players will need contracts before the Wild gets there.

Marco Rossi could be the first player to cash in as he’s set to become a restricted free agent next season. Marat Khusnutdinov and Declan Chisholm could also be in for a payday if they perform well this year.

Outside of Rossi, these contracts won’t break the bank. There’s even a good chance that Rossi will sign a bridge deal and cash in in a few years. But Kirill Kaprizov is the big piece that makes all of this work.

Without Kaprizov, the Wild are the rebuilding team that Leipold has been resistant to during his time as owner. However, it could also cost them somewhere in the neighborhood of the $14 million AAV the Edmonton Oilers gave Leon Draisaitl in his recent extension. Leipold told reporters last week that he’s willing to outbid anyone to retain Kaprizov, but it may not matter unless the Wild build a contender.

Part of that process will be adding players in free agency next summer who can elevate the Wild. But they also need to build a team that vets want to join. While the Wild proudly highlight their 90 percent season ticket renewal rate, plenty of corporate sponsorship, and sold-out club seating as a promise of a full barn, teams may not want to come here if they’re stuck in the middle.

That’s where the young players come in. Wallstedt needs to live up to his billing as part of the process, but other players are unknown. Danila Yurov, Zeev Buium, and Riley Heidt are three names the Wild expect to make an immediate impact when they get to Minnesota. Still, having a 100 percent hit rate on prospects just doesn’t happen.

The Wild believed they had that core with Mikko Koivu, Charlie Coyle, Jason Zucker and Mikael Granlund but none of those players outside of Koivu elevated to an elite status. Minnesota had a pair of trips to the second round of the playoffs, but the plan still had the Wild stuck in the middle, which is the same area that Kaprizov probably wants to avoid – even at a projected $14 million AAV.

So let’s say Kaprizov gets $14 million, and the 2027-28 salary cap is around $100 million. While the Wild only have $40.7 million on the books, the potential extensions of Kaprizov and a Wallstedt extension north of $5 million push that number up to $59.7 million.

While there’s still over $40 million in cap space, some of that could be used to secure talent, and even more could be used on the type of aggressive, long-term extensions that Bill Guerin has given Matt Boldy ($7 million AAV) and Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25 million AAV).

Again, advancing to the second round isn’t a bad thing, and if some of the players are worthy of a lucrative contract down the line, that’s an even better thing. But a player like Kaprizov will want to know what the Wild are doing to win a championship, and many of the players on the current roster have fallen short of that standard.

If Kaprizov is set to earn a contract with an eight-figure AAV, it would put a large chunk in their cap space. While the Wild could make supplemental signings, it’s on the young players to sell Kaprizov on the future and cash in on their potential, elevating Minnesota to a Cup contender.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility. But in a league where the potential isn’t always reached, it puts a ton of pressure on the Wild’s young prospects and could repeat a portion of history Wild fans would rather forget.