By Phillip Garrett -
Two months ago, if you asked me to guess who the top five-point scorers for the Minnesota Wild were, I would have likely been right about all but one. Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, and Mats Zuccarello are all shoo-ins. But then there’s Frederick Gaudreau, a third-line player who failed to prove himself in the first year of his five-year contract.
I have been skeptical of Freddy since he joined the Wild. My suspicion only worsened when he signed his new contract in 2023, especially since the team failed to show up for the playoffs a week later.
Gaudreau deserved a raise. After Dean Evason gave him more ice time with the Wild, he began to play at a higher level. Still, five years seemed too long. He had yet to prove he could produce at a high level for two seasons, let alone five.
My doubts increased after he scored only 15 points (5 goals, 10 assists) last year, the fewest he has scored in a Minnesota sweater.
In his defense, Gaudreau played only 67 regular-season games, contributing to the long list of injuries Minnesota suffered last year. With so many players out, the Wild needed a depth scorer from a forward with the flexibility to move up and down a roster. Gaudreau could have filled that role but failed to step up.
Entering this season, Gaudreau needed to prove himself. Gaudreau has 13 points (4 goals, 9 assists) in 24 games, averaging 14 minutes of ice time. He’s been a productive player. Still, with only one assist in his last five games, he isn’t playing like a player who’s earned a long-term contract.
So, what about the other middle six forwards? How does he compare in value? Gaudreau’s 5-year deal, though long, only costs $2.1 million against the cap per year. Meanwhile, Joel Eriksson Ek has the same number of points but more than double the cap hit at $5.2 million. However, Eriksson Ek brings more to the table than points and has earned every penny.
Conversely, Ryan Hartman signed a 3-year, $12 million. Hartman is 13th in scoring for the Wild, with only four goals and three assists. Still, he has a $4 million cap hit. Hartman is taking twice as much money, scoring less than Jonas Brodin and Spurgeon, and has a propensity to get injured.
I like Hartman, but his contract highlights how big of a steal Gaudreau’s contract may have been for the team. If Gaudreau can find a way to continue his scoring and not let age slow him down, the Wild may have themselves a second-line centerman for half the cost. But how likely is that to happen?
For lines that have played more than 60 minutes, the Marcus Foligno-Gaudreau-Yakov Trenin trio has the lowest xGoals% of all Wild forwards at 52.5%. They also have the lowest xGoals for per 60 minutes at 1.94.
The numbers show that this line should be struggling offensively. Yet, they still have found ways to score, having notched six goals and averaging 3.63 goals per 60 minutes.
Returning to the Foligno-Gaudreau-Trenin line, they have the second-lowest goals against per 60 at 1.21, only below Boldy-Erikkson Ek-Kaprizov. Better yet? That line has also only let in 2 goals while on the ice.
The Foligno-Gaudreau-Trenin line has found its footing because Trenin has started to look more like the player the Wild signed to a 4-year, $12 million contract.
Gaudreau brings a fun level of finesse to an otherwise physically imposing line that also takes a team-first approach. Hynes also knows this. He’s using Gaudreau and his line to shut down the most prominent lines in the league, and it’s working – the Wild have found ways to win close games.
Minnesota’s defense has made them special. While that starts on the blue line, players like Gaudreau quietly shut down dynamic lines. He’s a glue guy, which is valuable to every team.
Gaudreau still has to prove that he can continue to play at an elevated level for three more years after this and do it separately from Foligno and Trenin. Right now, he’s an essential part of a dominant team. Gaudreau will likely continue to have a role if the Wild can continue to be oppressive defensively.
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