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  • In A Season That’s Slipping Away, Let the Kids Play


    Image courtesy of https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ATy__Ug_jG8hfRjfiAIIuwHBjOQfRxPvEBeXq1j2lCk/edit?usp=sharing
    Luke Sims

     

    The lineup that the Minnesota Wild iced versus the Chicago Blackhawks late last night left much to be desired. For the umpteenth time, we saw head coach John Hynes opt for veteran experience over the promising potential of the youth. 

    Hynes had Marco Rossi skating on the third line again with *checks notes* Marcus Foligno and Freddy Gaudreau. While Foligno has had a relatively good season, his value comes from his defensive impact, not his offensive touch. Gaudreau has been dreadful all around this season (enjoy four more years of it) and will do Rossi no favors. 

    It’s also baffling that the Wild continue to ice Jon Merrill and Alex Goligoski. Merrill and Goligoski are not going to magically become better players. The duo has produced the lowest expected goals for percentages (xGF%), two of the three highest goals against average per 60 minutes (GA/60), and the two highest shots against per 60 minutes (SA/60) on the team. The chances of Goligoski and Merrill somehow improving are slim to none. Merrill is 32, and Goligoski is 38. 

    Ryan Hartman returned to his role as the center between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, which is defensible but also makes you wonder why. While Hartman can play that role, why aren’t they putting Rossi there? Hartman has proven that he can be good and sometimes even great in that role. At this point, though, is that what the Wild needs? 

    I understand that the owner, general manager, coach, and players are all trying to make a playoff push. Guerin said he’s "not waiving the white flag" on January 15. It’s natural to want to make the postseason. While a playoff spot is still in reach, the odds are stacked against this team.

    MoneyPuck.com gives the Wild a 2.2% chance of making the postseason. The Wild currently are tied for 26th in the league with 49 points. Upon returning from the All-Star Break, the Wild struggled to get a 2-1 win over the 2023-24 Chicago Blackhawks. 

    Let me repeat, the 2023-24 Chicago Blackhawks…

    Two depth players, Vinni Lettieiri and Foligno, carried the Wild. The top of the lineup failed to contribute. Gaudreau and Marcus Johansson got some cardio in but not much else. Nothing personal against those two, but if they continue to play like that, why not shift them down the lineup? Gaudreau is perfectly capable of playing in a fourth-line role. Johansson can slot in as a third-line winger and give someone else a top-6 opportunity.

    The Wild called up Adam Beckman because of his energy and willingness to shoot the puck. Then they sat him down and told him he’d be a healthy scratch. Why not give him an opportunity next to Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek on the second line? 

    Guerin sent a public message to Beckman, spelling out how this was “his chance” to succeed. How is Beckman supposed to succeed sitting in the press box or playing eight minutes a night on the fourth line? The Chicago game was a perfect opportunity for Beckman to prove he belongs. It doesn’t make sense to have him watching from the rafters. 

    No offense to Jake Lucchini, but Beckman still has a chance to prove he can be a capable scoring winger in the NHL. Why not give Beckman the minutes that go to Johansson or Gaudreau and have Lucchini sit in the press box as Johansson or Gaudreau slide down the lineup? 

    It also makes little sense for newly-acquired defenseman Declan Chisholm to sit out. Why not let the new guy play over Merrill or Goligoski? What do you have to lose against the Blackhawks? 

    Injuries play a large role in this situation. Jonas Brodin was out last game, and captain Jared Spurgeon won’t play the rest of the season. That’s two marquee defensemen gone. Pat Maroon and Connor Dewar are also on IR and were meaningful contributors to the bottom six. Still, open spots should be opportunities for the young players to step up, not a chance to ice the status quo.

    If Beckman can’t even get a look in the lineup against the worst team in the NHL, what hope does a player like Marat Khustnutdinov or Danilla Yurov have? They look like essential pieces to the Wild’s future core. While Yurov’s future for this season is still undecided, Khusnutdinov could be stateside by the end of the month. 

    The Wild don’t have a lot left to lose. From injuries to inconsistencies, this team’s immediate future looks bleak. The playoffs are a long shot. Management and coaches know what they will get from their aging veterans. Why not give the younger players a chance to test their mettle? If it goes poorly, at least they learned something about the team’s future 

    In a season that’s slipping away, let the kids play.

     

    All stats and data via HockeyDB, Evolving Hockey, CapFriendly, and NHL.com unless otherwise noted.

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    Declan Chisholm has been delayed in getting his visa and hasn't had a chance to practice with the Wild. They do plan to play him when he's available, per the Athletic.

    Beckman may have had some other issue, or maybe they just preferred playing the guys who had been practicing recently with the Wild. Beckman should be getting his chances, but I imagine they felt the other guys were more ready for that Chicago game and they knew they couldn't afford to lose that one if they have any shot at climbing up the standings.

    Also, Lucchini has played better than Beckman in the AHL both this year and last.

    Edited by Imyourhuckleberry
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    To be clear though, I do understand the sentiment. I'd agree with it more if in that game against Chicago, it wasn't the very guys who Beckman would have replaced that either scored or setup both goals in the 2-1 victory.

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    Some perspective on just how "late" it's getting for the Wild re: playoffs:

    STL is in the #8 spot now with a .551 points percentage.  That's a 90 point pace.

    --> For the Wild to beat that, they need 42 points in 32 games, which is a .656 percentage.  That's equal to what COL and VGK have done for the year so far.

     

    If you raise the bar to 95 points, which has been the actual range of the Western Conference #8 over the last few years (and it's been higher than that), that's a .579 percentage.

    --> For the Wild to hit 95 points, they need to finish the season at a .719 pace, which is VAN / top of the West level.

    Let's be realistic: this team is not going to suddenly morph into a top 3 in the West team from the .500 team they've been so far.

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    Beckman should play ahead of NoJo. this team cannot afford nor should they tolerate a player putting forth the effort that NoJo gave nor should they. Add Freddy to that Prossbox seat also. It is time for the staff to make players accountable for their performance. I think Goose and Merrill put in the effort but have nothing left to give so should sit. Play the kids needs to be th rallying cry for the rest of the season.

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    25 minutes ago, bisopher said:

    If you raise the bar to 95 points, which has been the actual range of the Western Conference #8 over the last few years (and it's been higher than that), that's a .579 percentage.

    --> For the Wild to hit 95 points, they need to finish the season at a .719 pace, which is VAN / top of the West level.

    Let's be realistic: this team is not going to suddenly morph into a top 3 in the West team from the .500 team they've been so far.

    Every season is different. If there aren't as many terrible teams, which it appears may be the case this season, then the point total for the 8th team might be lower with fewer easy wins over the teams who simply aren't competing.

    Florida got in with 92 points last season. Colorado made it with 90 points in 2019.

    Even if it's unlikely, the leadership on the Wild is still going to push hard for it until it's mathematically not possible. I think a majority of fans now would be content with a bottom 10 finish, but Kaprizov and company will likely fight as long as they have a puncher's chance.

    isnkL0.gif

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    Perhaps it was a subliminal message that Luke had going, but I could swear I was seeing a white flag waving in the background. I think Luke's got some solid points here.

    Chisholm will get played as soon as they get him acclimated. Hunt didn't have the opportunity since we are at roster limit, and someone would need to be sent down. Brodin gets sick, Chisholm couldn't practice due to visa trouble, you have to go with the guys you have. I don't see this happening for long. Chisholm hasn't played most of the year, so getting him up to speed may take a little longer than just throwing him into the deep end.

    Beckman, apparently, was brought up to be the 13th forward. I did not expect Lettieri to come back, and figured Beckman would slot in. I'm not sure why they chose to sit him, but he did get bag skated before the game. My gut says they wanted centers in the lineup. Lucchini feels the heat coming from Beckman and snipes one home. Lettieri also looked good setting up both goals. I was trying to figure out how Lettieri sets up Foligno when he was playing with Rossi and Gaudreau? Line change? And, what a nifty move by Faber to push the puck to Lettieri!

    So, what it appears we have here is a logjam that will need to get thinned out. Perhaps it's more of an icejam? Silly season is here. It's time to start thinning out the roster. I would imagine there will be enough space for Dino when he gets here. I'd also expect Beckman to have some space. I'd think Lucchini will end up getting sent down. 

    So, 2 forwards and 2 defenders need to get moved out in the next couple of weeks. That might also include 1 goalie after we have the Flower celebration tonight. That's 5 rostered players or 20-25% of the team. But, it is time for Hunt and possibly Chisholm to show what they have on a 3rd pairing? And it is needed to see if Beckman can handle the NHL now? 

    I can say for certainty, I will be watching, paying close attention to the kids, regardless of our record. I can't attend, but, the team will not lose the viewership.

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    I am in agreement with the majority on the board.  Let the kids play and give them the best chance for success.  Set the lines appropriately.

    Kirill, Rossi, Beckman

    Boldy, Ek, Luchinni

    Foligno, Hartman, Lettieri

    Zuc, Freddy, Duhaime

    Faber, Mid

    Brodin, Mermis

    Bogosian Chisholm

    Make sure NoJo is in the Prossbox.  Would gladly send Freddy there as well and stick in another youth.  Shaw?  I miss his play style.  Sure hope we see him soon. 

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    2 hours ago, bisopher said:

    Some perspective on just how "late" it's getting for the Wild re: playoffs:

    STL is in the #8 spot now with a .551 points percentage.  That's a 90 point pace.

    --> For the Wild to beat that, they need 42 points in 32 games, which is a .656 percentage.  That's equal to what COL and VGK have done for the year so far.

     

    If you raise the bar to 95 points, which has been the actual range of the Western Conference #8 over the last few years (and it's been higher than that), that's a .579 percentage.

    --> For the Wild to hit 95 points, they need to finish the season at a .719 pace, which is VAN / top of the West level.

    Let's be realistic: this team is not going to suddenly morph into a top 3 in the West team from the .500 team they've been so far.

    They are 5 points out with 32 games left. They have a legitimate shot. Math can be deceiving.

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    17 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    I am in agreement with the majority on the board.  Let the kids play and give them the best chance for success.  Set the lines appropriately.

    Kirill, Rossi, Beckman

    Boldy, Ek, Luchinni

    Foligno, Hartman, Lettieri

    Zuc, Freddy, Duhaime

    Faber, Mid

    Brodin, Mermis

    Bogosian Chisholm

    Make sure NoJo is in the Prossbox.  Would gladly send Freddy there as well and stick in another youth.  Shaw?  I miss his play style.  Sure hope we see him soon. 

    You can't have Merrill, Goligoski, Johansson, and Gaudreau all as healthy scratches.  You could only bring up another player if you move Merrill to the AHL (and if they do that, it would be better to replace him with a defenseman, not a forward).  Or you'd have to trade someone.

    I'd also rather see Lambos get a couple games over Mermis.  I see Mermis as better than Merrill, but he's not much better.  I think we've seen his ceiling.  Goligoski has moments, but he seems like he can only go once a week or he just seems tired and ineffective.  And if he is only good every 3-4 games, he might as well be a backup/healthy scratch.  I'd send down Mermis and roll Chisholm, Hunt, and Lambos over Merrill and Goligoski.  Obviously since Chisholm is a waiver grab and gas to stay up in the NHL, Hunt OR Lambos would be in place of Mermis.

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    5 hours ago, Patrick said:

    They are 5 points out with 32 games left. They have a legitimate shot. Math can be deceiving.

    Respectfully disagree. Beyond the simple math that states the Wild need to turn into the Avs to sniff 90 points, there's the fact that there are FIVE teams they have to pass to get into the #8 seed. And all of them think (not incorrectly) that they have a better chance than the Wild of getting there.

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    This is a very boring team with too many veterans just going through the motions.  What's their consequence?  To play even more of course.  We may never see what some of our prospects can do since the veterans have a lock on ice time.  This is a team stuck in quicksand and sinking fast.  That's how most of our veterans play, like they are in quicksand.

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    4 hours ago, bisopher said:
    9 hours ago, Patrick said:

    They are 5 points out with 32 games left. They have a legitimate shot. Math can be deceiving.

    Respectfully disagree. Beyond the simple math that states the Wild need to turn into the Avs to sniff 90 points, there's the fact that there are FIVE teams they have to pass to get into the #8 seed. And all of them think (not incorrectly) that they have a better chance than the Wild of getting there.

    The Wild are now 3 points back. Calgary, Seattle, and Arizona all have more difficult schedules. If the LA Kings don't continue plummeting down the standings, could be a 3-team race between St. Louis, Nashville, and MN.

    Based upon currently standings points and goal differentials, there isn't any clearly best team of the 6 teams fighting for position #8. The Wild have 3 games remaining against St. Louis and 2 against Nashville. The head-to-head matchups could easily be key differentiators. The Wild haven't done will in them so far on the year, but have had some success against better teams.

    Uphill battle, but could take just a few games to completely flip the outlook.

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    19 hours ago, greg said:

    This is a very boring team with too many veterans just going through the motions.  What's their consequence?  To play even more of course.  We may never see what some of our prospects can do since the veterans have a lock on ice time.  This is a team stuck in quicksand and sinking fast.  That's how most of our veterans play, like they are in quicksand.

    Just so were on the same page, that's Evason's fault, not Guerin's.

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    On 2/9/2024 at 9:33 AM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Declan Chisholm has been delayed in getting his visa and hasn't had a chance to practice with the Wild. They do plan to play him when he's available, per the Athletic.

    Beckman may have had some other issue, or maybe they just preferred playing the guys who had been practicing recently with the Wild. Beckman should be getting his chances, but I imagine they felt the other guys were more ready for that Chicago game and they knew they couldn't afford to lose that one if they have any shot at climbing up the standings.

    Also, Lucchini has played better than Beckman in the AHL both this year and last.

    The issue is Lucchini is 28 and Beckman is 23. Beckman still has room to grow while Lucchini is what he is. A servicable, replacement level player. Lucchini was -20 last year in the AHL with 50 points while Beckman was 36 points at a plus 5. The Wild asked Beckman to step up and become a more well rounded player by adding to his defensive game and he has taken steps in the right direction to do so. His play this year has been dragged down by an AHL team that is second last after the coaching change. 

    While you are right in saying Lucchini is playing better this year in Iowa, he is a on a one year stopgap and will likely be gone next year. Why give him play time in the big league when you know he will be nothing more than is while not giving your actual prospects a chance? There is no development going on for Lucchini or Letteri. They are playing them because this GM deluded himself into thinking they have a shot at playoffs. Not for the long term development of this team.

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