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  • Guerin Isn't Really Following His Five-Year Plan


    Image courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images
    Tom Schreier

    In October of last year, Minnesota Wild owner Craig Leipold said he had asked Bill Guerin to develop a five-year plan to win the Stanley Cup. The Wild were still in the throes of cap hell, but they were a year away from relief. 

    Mr. Leipold wanted Guerin to show him Minnesota’s pathway out of first-round exits and into bona fide contention. The Wild fan base is passionate and hasn’t seen the team reach the second round since the 2014-15 season. They have been patient while the team navigates the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts, but expectations will change once they have the same cap space as every other team.

    “We think about our fans all the time,” Mr. Leipold told The Athletic’s Joe Smith and Michael Russo. “We don’t want to overpromise and underdeliver.”

    Mr. Leipold said there was “zero heat” on Guerin as he entered his sixth season as general manager, but there were five key elements of the plan:

    • The team must re-sign superstar Kirill Kaprizov, who is eligible for an extension after this season. Nobody, Leipold says, will offer more money than the Wild, but it’s imperative that they convince him he can win in Minnesota.
    • The team’s current core and rising stars, such as Matt Boldy and Brock Faber, must thrive.
    • The team’s top prospects, like Jesper Wallstedt and Danila Yurov, must arrive and be impactful.
    • And next summer, when the Wild have some cap space, they need to hit on a few difference-making free agents. It’s not a lot of space, but Leipold says they have already identified one or two players they want to sign, and that next July 1 will feel like “Christmas.”

    Mr. Leipold and Guerin informed Smith and Russo that last season marked the second year of the plan. We’re still two years away from knowing whether it worked, but it looks like they’ve already overpromised and underdelivered.

    Will Kaprizov re-sign?

    Kaprizov probably isn’t going anywhere, but he will be expensive. Experts project the NHL’s salary cap to increase from $88 million to $113.5 million, meaning he may be worth $17 million per season. Kaprizov is in the final year of a five-year contract that pays him $9 million annually.

    The Wild will gladly pay him what he’s worth. 

    “Am I convinced that we can (persuade him to stay)? No,” Leipold said last year. “Am I convinced that we will have a better offer than anybody else can do in the league? The answer is yes.

    “I told you that this five-year plan is not a straight line. He’s the most important piece of our five-year plan. I think I can say that.”

    Kaprizov is in blank-check territory, given what he means to the franchise. The Wild let Marian Gaborik, their only other superstar, walk for free after he turned down an eight-year, $80 million extension and got hurt the following season. Minnesota can’t afford to allow Kaprizov to do the same.

    Still, with money comes pressure. At $17 million annually, Kaprizov would go from making less than Darnell Nurse and Seth Jones to making more than Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, and Connor McDavid. That’s a product of when Kaprizov will sign his extension. Still, people will hold him to a different standard. 

    The Wild would also likely extend him through age 35 because he entered the league at age 23. That shouldn’t be a major concern, given Parise and Suter would have played out their 13-year contracts had Guerin not bought them out. 

    Great players tend to be productive into their 30s. Still, Kaprizov’s mounting injuries are concerning. He played in only 41 games last year, yet still managed to produce 56 points. 

    The Wild will offer Kaprizov the largest contract. Their only concern is whether Kaprizov believes he can win here, and if another team closer to winning makes a competitive offer. Still, few contending teams have ample cap room, even with the rising cap. 

    Minnesota’s bigger issue is that while Mr. Leipold has bought into Guerin’s plan, Kaprizov may not. Most owners have confirmation bias when it comes to their general managers, unless their GM gives them reason to believe they’re mismanaging the team, because the owner hired them. 

    Meanwhile, Kaprizov will compare Guerin’s plan to the plans other teams present to him.

    Can the Wild build a thriving core around Kaprizov?

    Here’s where things get tricky. Next season will be Year 3 of Guerin’s plan, meaning Mr. Leipold will want to win the Stanley Cup by 2027-28, maybe 2028-29 if he feels the Wild are close. 

    To win a title, Minnesota will need a productive top-six, two reliable defensive pairs, and two goalies they can ride throughout the year. Because we’re looking two to three years into the future, we’ll examine their young core. Therefore, I won’t include players well into their 30s, like Jared Spurgeon, Mats Zuccarello, and Marcus Foligno.

    Top six forwards

    First line: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Danila Yurov

    Second line: Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, and Liam Ohgren

    Top four defensemen

    First pair: Brock Faber and Jonas Brodin

    Second pair: Zeev Buium and David Jiricek

    Goaltenders

    Jesper Wallstedt and Filip Gustavsson

    I’m including Brodin but not Spurgeon here because Brodin, 31, will still be under contract in 2027-28. Spurgeon will not, and will be 37 when his contract ends in 2026-27. If you believe the Wild extend Spurgeon, and he’s a top-four defenseman at 38, pencil him in. 

    Regardless, the Wild are deep on defense, assuming Buium and Jiricek pan out. That’s why Guerin recently said they’re set on defense at the end of the season. 

    Their forward situation is less clear, though.

    I formulated this list assuming that many of Minnesota’s top prospects pan out, using Scott Wheeler’s rankings as a guide. The defensive pairings assume Brodin plays well into his 30s, and Buium and Jiricek pan out, which are hardly guarantees. 

    However, the forward group requires multiple assumptions to work out.

    • Kaprizov must re-sign in Minnesota.
    • Yurov and Ohgren become productive top-six forwards in the NHL.
    • The Wild extends Rossi.

    The Wild must re-sign Kaprizov to contend in the next three years. However, it feels more likely that they’ll retain Kaprizov than Rossi. Ultimately, that’s a good thing. Kaprizov is a franchise player, while Rossi is a complementary star.

    However, Guerin seems like he’s out on Rossi.

    If Rossi becomes the next Matt Dumba, a talented player who’s perpetually on the trade block, it complicates Minnesota’s plans. It’s turning a jigsaw puzzle into a Rube Goldberg machine. To assemble a viable top-six without overpaying for aging veterans, which the Wild are wont to do, they’ll have to operate on a separate set of assumptions. 

    • Yurov will immediately take over as a second-line center.
    • Ohgren will become a top-six forward.
    • And they’ll find another top-six forward to round out the group.

    That’s not that far-fetched, but it operates on less likely outcomes. The Wild would be asking Yurov to adjust to living in the United States, which was challenging for Kaprizov and Marat Khusnutdinov while playing second-line center at the game’s highest level.

    I’ve always felt the Wild should have extended Rossi. Then, they’d have the option to keep him long term or trade him if they prefer Yurov or Charlie Stramel, who’s further down the prospect list. Instead, they’re banking on Yurov transitioning or Stramel’s slow development process accelerating.

    Have they developed their top prospects correctly?

    I’ve never been a fan of how the Wild have handled Rossi. If they manage top prospects like Buium, Yurov, and Wallstedt in the way they did Rossi, Guerin’s plan won’t yield results. Kaprizov is Minnesota’s cornerstone player, and established stars like Boldy and Faber will drive winning. Still, the Wild need to develop a championship team around them. 

    As we’ve learned, there was no “Christmas morning.” Brock Nelson or Brock Boeser wasn’t going to save them. 

    The Wild have the league’s No. 2 farm system. They must maximize it to build a contender. They can’t rely on players like Nelson or Boeser taking a hometown discount to join a team stuck in the league’s middle class. Instead, they must build a foundation of developmental success stories like Faber to elevate the team.

    Tanking likely wasn’t an option because Mr. Leipold didn’t want to, and Guerin has bought himself time by keeping the Wild in the postseason. “If we’re almost there, maybe it takes us a sixth year,” Leipold said last October. “I’m OK with that. … But we have to start with a plan and feel good about where we’re going. We have to get out of this. I don’t like not making the playoffs. It’s embarrassing.”

    To build a championship roster without bottoming out, Guerin had to rely on director of amateur scouting Judd Brackett to grab players who fell in the draft. That’s a viable strategy, but it requires that Guerin is satisfied with fallers, who have a flaw that keeps them from being a top pick. 

    If Guerin wanted large, skilled players, he had to tank to take players higher in the draft. The Wild made a conscious choice not to do that, and they can’t rely on free agency to build a contender. Free agents are often inefficient acquisitions, and star players may choose to join a team that is closer to contending for a championship.

    Whether Guerin drafted viable players during Minnesota’s cap-strapped years will be the difference between his five-year plan being a pathway to a championship or if he just bought himself more time on the job.

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    We can't assume anything about this team until we know Rossi is staying and/or some as of yet savior TDL is available.

    Guerin HAD a plan (a kinda silly one), but nearly every free agent said nope and stayed out.

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    2 Years ago, Tarasenko had 55 points and was +13 for the season, then won the cup while tallying 9 points in 24 playoff games. At that time, if you would have told me the Wild would add him for less than $5M and giving up no assets, it might have sounded too good to be true.

    I'm not saying that they are delivering on Christmas, but I know it's been a long wait to see some of the youth in prominent roles, so there are reasons to be excited about the upcoming season.

    Getting Yurov, Ohgren, Buium, and Jiricek into lineups for the Minnesota Wild on a nightly basis might be more exciting than future disappointment from 7 years of the defensively limited and below average speed of Brock Boeser. I recall some initial excitement in adding Thomas Vanek, but that didn't last and I wonder if Boeser will age with similar fall off in his game.

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    Instead, they must build a foundation of developmental success stories like Faber to elevate the team.

     

    This just sort of jumped out at me.  We did not develop this guy, he just sort of was ready to go when we got him.  Our farm system has supposedly had talent but I am not sure that Iowa has been much more than a holding pen where we just hope players will improve through the aging process.

     

    "Skate around guys.  Go faster.  Try harder."  You know, solid coaching like that.

     

     

    Edited by Dis-allowed display name
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    1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

     

    Getting Yurov, Ohgren, Buium, and Jiricek into lineups for the Minnesota Wild on a nightly basis might be more exciting than future disappointment from 7 years of the defensively limited and below average speed of Brock Boeser.

    As a recent former ticket holder, I would rather miss the playoffs entirely, give those young guys some time and see if they improve and are the real deal than watch another one-and-out  with NoJosey, and Treninsy, or Reavesy, or some other collections of arthritic Stiffsies they want to fool me into thinking we have a shot with.  If Yurov, Ohgren, and Buium are flying around making mistakes, at least they are flying around.  

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    we are not winning if we cannot trade up from this top 6 and beef it up. this year TDL is going to be vital for us and all signs pointing to Billy agreeing, since he kept that door open. Kap, Ek, Boldy are the only sure thing in that group. And they need help. Yurov and Rossi are not big and strong. Ohgren hasn't really shown to be top 6 material (yet) but maybe he comes in and impresses.

    I think 2 out of 6 in your top 6 will be changed. One internal and one external change. Likely Rossi and Ohgren out or bumped down.

    • First line: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Danila Yurov
    • Second line: Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, and Liam Ohgren

    but the good thing is that Billy does actually have a plan. he hasn't signed (overpaid) Nelly, Boeser, Bjugstad or Ehlers. they are not part of the plan.

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    Somewhere in this plan, there had to be the transitioning of the kids, the draft picks from '20-'23 getting into the lineup. I am in favor of this happening in a large quantity, like 5 rookies this season. I feel like that is more like year 2 though, not year 3. 

    In the offseason so far, we haven't really gotten any needle changers. If the rumor I read earlier today is true, a package for Mason McTavish is a must, and, yes, we will need to overpay for him on paper. 

    My hope is that he despises his role and totally wants out. A package with Rossi + could get that done. That would solidify the top 2 centers.

    We needed a guy like Kreider. Perhaps there is another guy in that same vein, Alex Tuch, who to my knowledge, has not re-signed yet either. If we can't get that done now, perhaps December or January are a good time, before the TDL. 

    How we start this season is not how we will end it with the roster. There's a lot of time and some teams out of the picture that will allow us to grab a couple of guys. Just keep some cap space to include them. 

    Also, if this happens, don't be surprised if some of our current bottom 6 vets also get sent out. This needs to happen. 

    And, on an interesting note, as I popped up McTavish's picture from elite prospects, both he and Rossi conveniently wear 23. Seems like a seamless change!

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    No way KK is worth 17 million a year after Rantanen and Marner signed for 12 million a year.  Its debatable whether KK is a better player than either of those guys, let alone worth close to 50% more annually.  If that is his demand let him walk. 

    I'm glad Guerin didn't spend in free agency.  Outside of Marner, it was a bunch of overrated guys.

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    2 hours ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

    Instead, they must build a foundation of developmental success stories like Faber to elevate the team.

     

    This just sort of jumped out at me.  We did not develop this guy, he just sort of was ready to go when we got him.  Our farm system has supposedly had talent but I am not sure that Iowa has been much more than a holding pen where we just hope players will improve through the aging process.

     

    "Skate around guys.  Go faster.  Try harder."  You know, solid coaching like that.

     

     

    Agree. Our track record on developing NHL talent is terrible. With the cap it’s almost a necessary skill a successful organization needs to compete. The closest we’ve come developing a bona fide star is…Boldy? Is that right? Did I miss somebody? Did Boldy even play much in the AHL? Maybe it’s Rossi instead.

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    20 minutes ago, TCMooch said:

    Agree. Our track record on developing NHL talent is terrible. With the cap it’s almost a necessary skill a successful organization needs to compete. The closest we’ve come developing a bona fide star is…Boldy? Is that right? Did I miss somebody? Did Boldy even play much in the AHL? Maybe it’s Rossi instead.

    How many stars have actually played a lot in the AHL though?  Of the top 50 scorers in the NHL this year, only two, Adrian Kempe and JT Miller, played more than 100 games in the AHL.  

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    2 hours ago, Patrick said:

    I'm glad Guerin didn't spend in free agency.  Outside of Marner, it was a bunch of overrated guys.

    Get ready for this to be the short term norm. With the cap going up considerably each year, every team is getting bailed out of higher contracts. 

    So, now we have to go to the trade market. 

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    2 hours ago, TCMooch said:

    Agree. Our track record on developing NHL talent is terrible. With the cap it’s almost a necessary skill a successful organization needs to compete. The closest we’ve come developing a bona fide star is…Boldy? Is that right? Did I miss somebody? Did Boldy even play much in the AHL? Maybe it’s Rossi instead.

    Almost every draft pick that has come onto the team spent most of their development in different places besides the A. The guy with the most time there is The Wall. 

    It would be nice if we could see something from him, Milne, Lambos, Spacek this season. Personally, I think the #1 detriment is not insisting that the kids come in and build an NHL frame. To many skipped leg day....and then skip upper body day....and then just did cardio with some straps. That's not the way to do it. Guys need to get bigger and meaner.

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    1 hour ago, SkolWild73 said:

    How many stars have actually played a lot in the AHL though?  Of the top 50 scorers in the NHL this year, only two, Adrian Kempe and JT Miller, played more than 100 games in the AHL.

    If this is true, that's a very telling stat. Maybe the new rules for NA players getting to play college hockey will help?

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    48 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    If this is true, that's a very telling stat. Maybe the new rules for NA players getting to play college hockey will help?

    It is possible I missed one or two, but I think I got them all.  I actually looked at all 85 players that scored 60 or more points last year and besides Kempe and Miller, the only other players with more than 100 AHL games were Fiala, Kadri, Batherson and Rossi.  

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    I think Kirill is going to get 14 maybe 15 a year.  Anything more and the Wild would have to seriously cut payroll. 

    As far as the five year plan.... It is cute to say things like this and then say well last year wasn't what we expected.  So we are still on year 2 of the 5.  That is fine as long as the team progresses.  Did they progress?  Rossi showed he is legit a NHL player.  Gus showed he is a number one goalie.  Kirill showed that he is a MVP caliber player when not hurt.  Boldy progressing to a 100 point player. Faber had a regression, that could be a sophomore slump or something to be concerned about.  Everyone else just got a year older.  

    So, where does that leave the team.  Well the team is going to look very similar to last year going into October.  The team will have a lot of flexibility for adding pieces at the trade deadline.  More so if Rossi leaves on a RFA deal.  With Hynes system and what they have with the Defense they will win a lot of games this year and be one of the top teams in the west.  As long as they don't get hurt that is.  The team has little depth outside of the starters, lose one guy and they are in trouble and it just snowballs from there. 

    So, how do they get deeper.  Well the prospects need to be addressed.  This idea that you won't trade your future and then not use those players in a future plan is getting old.  The longer they sit in Iowa the less likely someone is going to say sure we will take Lambos in a trade or name random elite prospect.  

    BG if you want to make the team better make some deals and trade away some prospects in the process. 

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    14 hours ago, Patrick said:

    No way KK is worth 17 million a year after Rantanen and Marner signed for 12 million a year.  Its debatable whether KK is a better player than either of those guys, let alone worth close to 50% more annually.  If that is his demand let him walk. 

    I'm glad Guerin didn't spend in free agency.  Outside of Marner, it was a bunch of overrated guys.

    Whoa. No. You don't just let a Kaprizov walk. You trade him at the worst. 

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    12 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Personally, I think the #1 detriment is not insisting that the kids come in and build an NHL frame. To many skipped leg day....and then skip upper body day....and then just did cardio with some straps. That's not the way to do it. Guys need to get bigger and meaner.

    I think part of it is just the length of the NHL season too. Wild go through the playoffs, their season ends in maybe early May and then by September they're supposed to show back up in shape for training camp. 

    That gives them only 4 months to build muscle because I doubt they're going too heavy with lifting in-season when they're trying to keep their bodies fresh for the long season. 

    Which means, at most, they're probably looking to be able to add 5 lbs of lean mass in that short offseason IF they're fully locked in. And when you're drafting guys that are only 170 - 180lbs, it'll take them some time to actually get up around 200lbs. 

    I think that's part of why you see teams go so crazy for size at the top of the draft all the time. Its just a shorter road to the 200-lbs club for those guys and then they've got a size advantage over other young players.

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    Its funny that they flipped this new 5-year plan on us and then told us we were actually in year 2 at the start of last year. Just LOL. What a horrible interview that ended up being for the owner.

    He'll never give them again after all this egg on his face! 

    But being real, I don't think upgrading the top-6 should be too difficult in the near-future. Kaprizov is obviously the biggest piece of that puzzle, so they've got to get that piece to fall first, but the BEEK line has been consistently among the best in the league, so we've got a legit top-line there. 

    The 2nd line could do with a complete overhaul, whether they keep Rossi or not. I don't know that I'd count Ohgren as a future 2nd line contributor. If he ends up in the bottom-6, I think that's fine for the 5-year plan. 

    There SHOULD be some other options at wing by the TDL and with the way the contracts are structured it sort of forces Guerin's hands to have to upgrade the 2nd line wingers by the start of the next season since Zuccy and Taranseko will both be UFA. 

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    5 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    I think part of it is just the length of the NHL season too. Wild go through the playoffs, their season ends in maybe early May and then by September they're supposed to show back up in shape for training camp. 

    I was talking about the A, not the N. In the A, sometimes you get a week off before a bevy of games. Their scheduling is a bit weird, so, they have the time to do the lifting, but aren't taking advantage of it. And, ending in May has not been a problem in Des Moines. 

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    Kaprizov’s mounting injuries are concerning.

    This is why he isn’t worth more than $14M/season, actually less. But the Wild WILL overpay him to get him to stay. Every million more makes it that much harder to build a complete team. Praise/Suter are STILL costing the Wild nearly $2M per year for three more years. Wouldn’t that be nice to have for Kaprizov?

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I was talking about the A, not the N. In the A, sometimes you get a week off before a bevy of games. Their scheduling is a bit weird, so, they have the time to do the lifting, but aren't taking advantage of it. And, ending in May has not been a problem in Des Moines. 

    I mean having a week here or there isn't going to make much of a difference I wouldn't think. You gotta really stack them up to make any noticeable progress. Especially if they've already got a solid base of lifting, which I would assume most do by the time they at least make the A. 

    Plus you gotta take into consideration that these are generally all guys in their early 20s who probably care more about maintaining their abs for the offseason than trying to EAT BIG and up their squat numbers, which is part of the struggle too.

     

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    3 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    Plus you gotta take into consideration that these are generally all guys in their early 20s who probably care more about maintaining their abs for the offseason than trying to EAT BIG and up their squat numbers, which is part of the struggle too.

    You've just made my point for me. There is no insistence that they bulk up. Rossi wasn't effective in the N until he paid attention and did it. Look what happened to Beckman. O'Rourke is the poster child for not doing this.

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