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  • Guerin Could Have Prepared For the Marco Rossi Situation Last Summer

    Image courtesy of Sergei Belski-Imagn Images
    Chris Schad

    By Chris Schad -

    The Minnesota Wild are entering one of their most exciting offseasons in franchise history. Freed from the shackles of a $14.7 million dead cap hit in each of the past three seasons and fueled by eight straight first-round exits in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, big moves could be coming, and a notable free agent or two could call Minnesota home by the time next season rolls around.

    With that in mind, Bill Guerin has a hole burning in his pocket. That is, unless that money is reserved for Marco Rossi.

    Rossi is at the center of one of the biggest offseason storylines for the Wild. He’s coming off a career season, posting 60 points on 24 goals and 36 assists. At 23 years old, he’s the type of player a franchise would want to build around as a top-six forward. However, his future with the Wild is uncertain because he's poised to be a restricted free agent.

    Most teams don’t want to be in a situation with a player who was the ninth overall pick in 2020. However, Guerin also created the situation because he could have prevented the Rossi dilemma last summer.

    Guerin hasn’t been shy about locking up the core of his team with lucrative contract extensions. Ryan Hartman, Marcus Foligno, and Mats Zuccarello signed within days of each other before the 2023-24 season began. Jake Middleton got another contract extension last summer. Each of these deals contains a no-movement clause. 

    Long story short? If Guerin likes you, you’re going to be rewarded. And that’s why the situation with Rossi has gotten weird.

    Rossi looked like an NHL-ready prospect but had a slow start to his career. He battled a heart condition during the COVID-19 pandemic. He spent most of his age-20 and age-21 seasons with the AHL’s Iowa Wild but finally became a regular player in 2023-24 with a career-high 40 points. 

    At that point, Rossi’s play had greatly improved, and he could have been a player who received a sizeable commitment. According to The Athletic's Michael Russo, the Wild offered a five-year contract to keep him in Minnesota last winter, but Rossi declined. 

    That happens frequently in the NHL, where players try to put one more good year on their resume before getting a bigger contract the following offseason. Even then, it’s more likely that a player signs a two- or three-year bridge deal than an offer sheet with another team because they must give up draft pick compensation.

    But two important things happened in the past calendar year. The first was the St. Louis Blues raiding the Edmonton Oilers using offer sheets. Defenseman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway signed two-year offer sheets to leave Edmonton last August. When the Oilers declined, they became the first players to switch teams via offer sheets since Dustin Penner jumped from the Anaheim Ducks to Edmonton in 2007.

    Holloway became one of the Blues' top offensive players last season, finishing third with 63 points. Broberg also became St. Louis’s top defenseman with a 21 plus/minus rating. The total cost for these players was $13.74 million, along with second- and third-round selections in a weak 2025 draft class.

    It’s not a free license to start signing restricted free agents. Still, other general managers must pay attention to this, especially if the Wild are making Rossi available.

    That brings us to the other development. While we’ve learned that the Wild like Rossi, they don’t love him. He’s done everything the organization has asked him to do, and when it’s time to reward him, they move the goalposts and ask for something else.

    The defining moment came in last year’s playoffs. Rossi struggled to open the series against the Vegas Golden Knights, and John Hynes responded by demoting him to the fourth line. The Wild did their best to spin it as a positive to try to awaken Yakov Trenin and Justin Brazeau on the checking line. But it was a jarring sight to see a player who finished third on the team in goals scored (24) drop to the fourth line, especially on a team that was looking for offense.

    With that information, Guerin is walking to the poker table wearing reflective glasses. The Wild could get a haul trading Rossi. Guerin has made the best out of similar situations, including dealing Kevin Fiala to the Los Angeles Kings for Brock Faber and Liam Ohgren in 2022. However, teams may not be willing to give up much for a player that they know Minnesota would let walk if an offer sheet exceeds their price.

    AFP Analytics projects Rossi to get a $4.54 million AAV if a team decides to sign him to a two-year bridge deal next season. While that would require giving up first- and third-round picks in the 2026 draft, it could be worth it if Rossi becomes a top-six center that leads them to the playoffs.

    Most general managers would like to avoid this situation, and Guerin could have dodged it if he had committed to Rossi last summer.

    By Chris Schad  

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    Citizen Strife

    Guerin COULD have signed him on the cheap a year ago.  Other players signed for more despite way less production.  Rossi earned his paycheck, but now Guerin looks at the shiny new Yurov ball and says, "DO WHAT ROSSI DID BUT BETTER NOW!"

    Yurov now has the baggage he shouldn't have because Guerin, Rossi, the agent, or all of them couldn't figure out this shit sooner.

     

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    OldDutchChip

    He’s done everything the organization has asked him to do will this sentence be mentioned on EVERY Rossi article until the end of times? is he some kind of anomaly? don't all players are being asked to give it their all? 🍻

    and when it’s time to reward him, they move the goalposts and ask for something else. i think they wanted to see a bit more of Rossi, specifically can he lead and elevate his play when it matters - the answer wasn't positive. So not sure what the expectation is. 

    Chris - you are the GM - what do you do? What is the contract right now that you sign Rossi to?

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    greg

    Negative comments about Rossi performance on the Wild are not warranted.  Direct them to Guerin and Hynes.  Hynes was out coached badly in the playoffs.  It matched his previous lack of performance in the playoffs.  Rossi should have been playing ahead of others on that team in the playoffs.  But Guerin and Hynes decided to go with some of those stiffs that needed smelling salts just to stay awake.  I believe Rossi was the third or fourth highest goal scorer on the team this year and played in every game I believe.  What a way to treat players.  Guerin has done a rotten job with most of the young players and their development.

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    SkolWild73
    4 hours ago, Patrick said:

    I'm pretty sure Kotkaniemi was signed from Montreal to Carolina with an offer sheet around 2020.

    Yes in 2021 Montreal did not match.  I read that Carolina did that as payback for Montreal offering Aho two years earlier.  The last one not matched before that was 2007.  

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    Scalptrash
    23 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    He’s done everything the organization has asked him to do will this sentence be mentioned on EVERY Rossi article until the end of times? is he some kind of anomaly? don't all players are being asked to give it their all? 🍻

    and when it’s time to reward him, they move the goalposts and ask for something else. i think they wanted to see a bit more of Rossi, specifically can he lead and elevate his play when it matters - the answer wasn't positive. So not sure what the expectation is. 

    Chris - you are the GM - what do you do? What is the contract right now that you sign Rossi to?

    No, most players don't do what Rossi did to make it to the NHL. See Matt Boldy. How many years did it take for him to become a consistently good player (the jury is still out on consistent)? The difference is, he was elevated almost immediately and given as much rope as he needed, the entire time. He was never demoted to the fourth line during his many 20 game slumps. Billy has never liked Rossi because he's not him. A top six power forward.

    Wanted to see more out of Rossi? Really? What else could he do in his first two years and being buried on the fourth line in his very first playoffs? Rossi only gets better every year and when he's 25-26 he'll be bigger, stronger, and even more confident. The Wild have a history of giving away young talent that develops very well elsewhere. Billy won't build, he just buys guys like himself. Old, fat and tired.

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    OldDutchChip
    30 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

    No, most players don't do what Rossi did to make it to the NHL. See Matt Boldy. How many years did it take for him to become a consistently good player (the jury is still out on consistent)? The difference is, he was elevated almost immediately and given as much rope as he needed, the entire time. He was never demoted to the fourth line during his many 20 game slumps. Billy has never liked Rossi because he's not him. A top six power forward.

    Wanted to see more out of Rossi? Really? What else could he do in his first two years and being buried on the fourth line in his very first playoffs? Rossi only gets better every year and when he's 25-26 he'll be bigger, stronger, and even more confident. The Wild have a history of giving away young talent that develops very well elsewhere. Billy won't build, he just buys guys like himself. Old, fat and tired.

    No, most players don't do what Rossi did to make it to the NHL. that's an insult to all  the players that made it. they go through a lot to get to the NHL. and each one of them push themselves to the max to reach that level.

    See Matt Boldy. How many years did it take for him to become a consistently good player (the jury is still out on consistent)? you and i have zero actual knowledge of what it took boldy to make it. but was Boldy not the one that pushed and drove L2 with Fiala? wasn't he the catalyst for MJ experience to work?  he delivered results and it made zero sense sending him down to Iowa or to 4th line. 

    He was never demoted to the fourth line during his many 20 game slumps. didn't deserve that.

    Billy has never liked Rossi because he's not him. A top six power forward. i think you are overblowing this. Billy gave him a chance to lead, to become a player that is tough to play against, to grow into his role as top C. Rossi didn't do that. now they are at a crossroads. 

    Wanted to see more out of Rossi? Really? What else could he do in his first two years and being buried on the fourth line in his very first playoffs? well he could have played with more spunk out there, showing that the game mattered - that's a minimum requirement. and he did not. 

    Rossi only gets better every year and when he's 25-26 he'll be bigger, stronger, and even more confident. ok, but right now he is not what we need. he does not fit the timeline that we have. and we cannot juggle both development and winning. we have done one and not the other. sometimes you sacrifice development and potential for the now and winning. that is what Billy should/will do with Rossi. trade potential for now. Good for him and Rossi too.

     

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