Guerin Could Have Prepared For the Marco Rossi Situation Last Summer

The Minnesota Wild are entering one of their most exciting offseasons in franchise history. Freed from the shackles of a $14.7 million dead cap hit in each of the past three seasons and fueled by eight straight first-round exits in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, big moves could be coming, and a notable free agent or two could call Minnesota home by the time next season rolls around.

With that in mind, Bill Guerin has a hole burning in his pocket. That is, unless that money is reserved for Marco Rossi.

Rossi is at the center of one of the biggest offseason storylines for the Wild. He’s coming off a career season, posting 60 points on 24 goals and 36 assists. At 23 years old, he’s the type of player a franchise would want to build around as a top-six forward. However, his future with the Wild is uncertain because he's poised to be a restricted free agent.

Most teams don’t want to be in a situation with a player who was the ninth overall pick in 2020. However, Guerin also created the situation because he could have prevented the Rossi dilemma last summer.

Guerin hasn’t been shy about locking up the core of his team with lucrative contract extensions. Ryan Hartman, Marcus Foligno, and Mats Zuccarello signed within days of each other before the 2023-24 season began. Jake Middleton got another contract extension last summer. Each of these deals contains a no-movement clause. 

Long story short? If Guerin likes you, you’re going to be rewarded. And that’s why the situation with Rossi has gotten weird.

Rossi looked like an NHL-ready prospect but had a slow start to his career. He battled a heart condition during the COVID-19 pandemic. He spent most of his age-20 and age-21 seasons with the AHL’s Iowa Wild but finally became a regular player in 2023-24 with a career-high 40 points. 

At that point, Rossi’s play had greatly improved, and he could have been a player who received a sizeable commitment. According to The Athletic's Michael Russo, the Wild offered a five-year contract to keep him in Minnesota last winter, but Rossi declined. 

That happens frequently in the NHL, where players try to put one more good year on their resume before getting a bigger contract the following offseason. Even then, it’s more likely that a player signs a two- or three-year bridge deal than an offer sheet with another team because they must give up draft pick compensation.

But two important things happened in the past calendar year. The first was the St. Louis Blues raiding the Edmonton Oilers using offer sheets. Defenseman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway signed two-year offer sheets to leave Edmonton last August. When the Oilers declined, they became the first players to switch teams via offer sheets since Dustin Penner jumped from the Anaheim Ducks to Edmonton in 2007.

Holloway became one of the Blues' top offensive players last season, finishing third with 63 points. Broberg also became St. Louis’s top defenseman with a 21 plus/minus rating. The total cost for these players was $13.74 million, along with second- and third-round selections in a weak 2025 draft class.

It’s not a free license to start signing restricted free agents. Still, other general managers must pay attention to this, especially if the Wild are making Rossi available.

That brings us to the other development. While we’ve learned that the Wild like Rossi, they don’t love him. He’s done everything the organization has asked him to do, and when it’s time to reward him, they move the goalposts and ask for something else.

The defining moment came in last year’s playoffs. Rossi struggled to open the series against the Vegas Golden Knights, and John Hynes responded by demoting him to the fourth line. The Wild did their best to spin it as a positive to try to awaken Yakov Trenin and Justin Brazeau on the checking line. But it was a jarring sight to see a player who finished third on the team in goals scored (24) drop to the fourth line, especially on a team that was looking for offense.

With that information, Guerin is walking to the poker table wearing reflective glasses. The Wild could get a haul trading Rossi. Guerin has made the best out of similar situations, including dealing Kevin Fiala to the Los Angeles Kings for Brock Faber and Liam Ohgren in 2022. However, teams may not be willing to give up much for a player that they know Minnesota would let walk if an offer sheet exceeds their price.

AFP Analytics projects Rossi to get a $4.54 million AAV if a team decides to sign him to a two-year bridge deal next season. While that would require giving up first- and third-round picks in the 2026 draft, it could be worth it if Rossi becomes a top-six center that leads them to the playoffs.

Most general managers would like to avoid this situation, and Guerin could have dodged it if he had committed to Rossi last summer.