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  • Freddy Gaudreau Has Quietly Had the Bounce-Back Season the Wild Need


    Image courtesy of Brett Holmes-Imagn Images
    Luke Sims

    I wrote off Freddy Gaudreau after his utterly miserable season last year.

    In the first year of a new five-year extension handed out by Bill Guerin, Gaudreau made what looked like one of the dumbest moves in the NHL. Gaudreau was separated from Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, faced injuries, and looked dreadful, leading to a season with five goals and 15 points in 67 games.

    Fans and media, myself included, wondered how the Wild could offload his five-year, $2.1 million AAV contract. However, this season, the former undrafted forward proved that would have been a mistake. 

    Gaudreau is the Wild’s fifth-leading scorer with 36 points (18 goals and 18 assists) after only recording five goals and 18 assists in 67 games last year. He’s been available and played sound hockey in every game. Health is a luxury the Wild have not been able to afford, but Gaudreau has stabilized a constantly changing roster.

    He’s been solid on both sides of the puck. Gaudreau is Minnesota’s second-leading forward in blocks with 61. He’s the third-leading forward in takeaways with 23. The Quebec native struggled in the faceoff circle (48%), but so did every other Wild center this season. Gaudreau was second to Ryan Hartman in faceoff win percentage on the team this season.

    Gaudreau also has played disciplined hockey. One of the league's worst penalty kills only came out twice as a result of Gaudreau this season. While the other players took penalties, Gaudreau logged more minutes than any other forward.

    Gaudreau's most common linemates have been Marus Foligno and Yakov Trenin. Foligno is having a similar bounce-back season. Meanwhile, Trenin has been slow and sometimes serviceable. These are not exactly two offensive dynamos, but Gaudreau has made an offensive impact.

    Gaudreau doesn’t need to be on a line with Kaprizov and Zuccarello to score. It’s looking more like the injury that derailed his 2023-24 season caused a dip in his production.

    In his first two seasons in Minnesota, Gaudreau had 44 and 38 points, and the Wild rewarded him with a five-year deal. In both seasons, Gaudreau spent most of his time with Kaprizov and Zuccarello, two star offensive weapons.

    Gaudreau’s contract takes up only 2.4% of the Wild’s cap space this season, and that will decrease as the cap rises in the years to come. When it concludes, Gaudrea’s contract will be worth only $1.5 million in today’s money. 

    A year ago, Gaudreau’s contract looked like dead weight on the cap. However, the Wild are getting value on it this season. The Wild couldn't look much worse than a 40-point player who makes $2.1 million for the next three seasons. 

    Gaudreau brings value as a penalty killer who can play wing or center and is still producing while getting minimal power-play time with the top unit and rarely plays in the top six.

    After a down year, he’s become the player we’ve come to know and love again.

    All stats and data via Evolving Hockey, Cap Wages, Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck.com and HockeyDB unless otherwise noted.

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    All this and he really hasn't had the opportunity to show off what he's best at: Shootouts.

    He makes $100k more than Johansson, but I would argue he's been solidly more useful. Johansson's had a good close to the season, but Gaudreau has been way more consistent.

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    The pk has been historically bad most of the season. The pp isn’t good. Move him up the lineup and that line can’t score. Proven since he’s been here . Move him down the lineup up and that line can’t prevent being scored on. Everyone is so called slotted now and his line is the weak link. He can’t defend the middle with his weak stick checks. Adam Lowry is going to have a field day playing Fred’s line . You need more than he offers for 3 rd line. At best he’s a 4 th line wing. Then that means you don’t have a physical 4 th line just like they don’t have a physical 3 rd line going into playoffs. IMO he’s the weak link that’s going to get exposed in playoffs. . It’s time to find someone to do his job better and that’s not asking much. 

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    19 minutes ago, Dean said:

    The pk has been historically bad most of the season. The pp isn’t good. Move him up the lineup and that line can’t score. Proven since he’s been here . Move him down the lineup up and that line can’t prevent being scored on. Everyone is so called slotted now and his line is the weak link. He can’t defend the middle with his weak stick checks. Adam Lowry is going to have a field day playing Fred’s line . You need more than he offers for 3 rd line. At best he’s a 4 th line wing. Then that means you don’t have a physical 4 th line just like they don’t have a physical 3 rd line going into playoffs. IMO he’s the weak link that’s going to get exposed in playoffs. . It’s time to find someone to do his job better and that’s not asking much. 

    This is a hot take and accurate imo.  I was ready to say Fred is a value deal(because the bar is so low for Fred), but Dean accurately points out that Fred is a jack of all trades but master of none.  He’s not an immediate problem that needs to be addressed, but if he’s in the top 9 it’s a Wild problem

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