By Tony Abbott -
Just two months ago, Filip Gustavsson and the cap-strapped Minnesota Wild were struggling to come to an agreement. Gustavsson was looking for his fair share after a breakout season, while the Wild were trying to make a new deal fit on their tight budget. During that standoff, you could hear every reason imaginable to discredit a performance that propelled Minnesota into the playoffs.
He only started 61 games over his career!
He's a system goalie. Look at his defense!
The Ottawa Senators didn't want him!
He slowed down in the playoffs!
Wonder what the Wild could get for him in a trade?
He wasn't the Wild's No. 1 option!
That's all standard stuff for most any player asking to get paid. Still, it reflected a somewhat valid concern. What if this guy turns into a pumpkin? Well, last night was midnight. All the conditions were right on Opening Night to expose Gustavsson as a fraud.
The Stanley Cup runner-up Florida Panthers were in town last night, loaded with big-time offensive players like Sasha Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Sam Reinhart. Minnesota's vaunted defense was playing their first game without Matt Dumba, and with Jared Spurgeon on the shelf. The Wild started last year struggling mightily with goal prevention. Any of last year's magic was five months old.
Then Florida came out buzzing, landing ten of their first dozen shots on goal. It was a recipe to fall behind early en route to a flat Opening Night performance. But Gustavsson stood tall enough that the Wild could get the first punch in when Brock Faber scored from 60 feet out eight minutes into the game.
Florida went a touch flat after that first goal, (then again when Joel Eriksson Ek made the game 2-0 on a power play goal in the second) but you can't keep this Panthers team down for long. They ended the first period leading 28 shot attempts to 10, and it stayed about that ugly for the entire game.
The Wild's vaunted defense looked exposed last night without Spurgeon. Or at least, they would have if the "Gus Bus" showed any rust. Jon Merrill was their very best defenseman at controlling play at even strength. Minnesota got just 36.2% of the expected goal share when he was on the ice. No other defenseman was above 30%.
Just look at where Florida was getting their shots from with Evolving-Hockey's shot map:
Gustavsson faced 10 shots that had a 10% or greater chance to score last night... and that's just the ones that made it on net! He stopped all 10 of them. He stopped the ones that didn't have a high chance to score. Gustavsson stopped everything for a 41-save performance that almost certainly saved the Wild's bacon last night.
Again, look at that expected goal total for Florida: 3.27. If he gives up the "expected" total, Minnesota loses 3-2. They won 2-0. We can count Gustavsson's impact on our fingers.
It's just one game, but what a statement from Gustavsson in a situation that could've easily gone sideways. His Save% is now .922 for his career following his 67th game. It's an arbitrary endpoint, for sure, but let's look at what other goalies have done in their first 67 games since 2007-08, using Stathead's Player Span Finder:
1. Cory Schneider: .928 save%
2. Tuukka Rask: .928
3. Cam Talbot: .926
4. Ilya Sorokin: .924
5. Scott Darling: .924
6. Igor Shesterkin: .924
7. Anton Khudobin: .924
8. Petr Mrazek: .924
9. Matt Murray: .923
10. Philipp Grubauer: .922
11. Jonas Hiller: .922
12: Elvis Merzlikins: .922
13. FILIP GUSTAVSSON: .922
14: Braden Holtby: .921
15: Frederik Andersen: .921
You can pick out some players who went on to struggle afterwards (Merzlikins, Mrazek, and Murray standing out as examples). But most of these goalies went on to have solid careers as "1B"-type goalies, with many performing well as the No. 1 option. The flukes start getting weeded out right about this stage of Gustavsson's career.
Gustavsson is fending off the skeptics. Just like when he stood on his head in the second half of last season, it's coming at exactly the right time. Last night, the Wild looked like the same goaltending-reliant team they did down the stretch last year. Get some timely goals, and hope Gustavsson (or Marc-Andre Fleury) can carry them the rest of the way.
It's probably going to be like that until Spurgeon can come in and stabilize things. While Dean Evason's instinct is likely to come back in Game 2 on Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs with Fleury, it's hard to make an argument against throwing Gustavsson back out in Game 2 against the high-octane Auston Matthews and more.
If Game 1 is any indication of how the "Gus Bus" is going to run this year, their ride back to the playoffs shouldn't be bumpy at all.
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