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  • Draft Lottery Analysis: Where do the Wild Stand?


    The Wild are now officially out of the playoffs, but in reality, all of us considered the Wild out since the trade deadline. After sending veteran defensemen Nick Schultz and Greg Zanon away, we knew it was going to be a long trip to the end of the season.

    Well, its here, and there's one good thing. At least we're no longer in limbo, going for playoffs but needing a high pick.


    So since we're in the draft mood (although there is still three months until the draft), I thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at the draft lottery,

    For those who still do not fully understand the lottery, here's a quick explanation.

    So the Minnesota Wild are currently the fourth worst team in the league, and that is a position where you go "yay, we're terrible!" In a draft like this where the top nine is pretty much set in stone. Here are my current rankings


    Of course, this is just my own rankings, not a mock. In addition, there will some fallers and risers, the latter including Radek Faksa, Cody Ceci, and Brendan Gaunce. But in any case, the Wild will end up with a top prospect that could immediately demand the #2 top Wild prospect ranking right after Mikeal Granlund.

    However, remember the last time we got the#4 pick? Mr. Benoit Pouliot. IMO the worst first round pick the Wild have made in terms of disappointment (yes, over A.J Thelen).

    So its in the team's best interest to win the lottery. Although we have tons of talented forwards, no really have game-breaking abilities other than Granlund. With Granlund being a magician playmaker, imagine acquiring an explosive scorer like Yakupov to alongside him.

    Here are the percentages of winning the lottery:


    10.7% seems like a fairly decent percentage, considering there are 14 teams in the lottery. However, not all have the ability to win the first overall. To put it in perspective, look at the below winning percentages.

    Here are the percentages of winning the 1st overall pick, with the teams at their current standings


    Now, 10.7% versus 48.2% is the real way to look at it, and the more depressing way as well. Our chances look very, very slim. But then again, percentages are just numbers. They don't mean anything, only results do. So since the lockout, what has happened?

    Here are the past results since the Crosby draft:


    So in the past six seasons, the first overall team won 4 out of 6 times, retaining their 1st overall pick. The other two times, Chicago and New Jersey won. Chicago moved from 5th and New Jersey moved from 8th to 4th. Chances are extremely slim, but there are chances.

    New Jersey had a ~3.6% chance of winning and Chicago had a ~8.1% chance of winning.

    Not very high, but they made it. And both ended up with wonderful picks: Patrick Kane and Adam Larsson. We need someone will these guys.

    To conclude: chances are slim and the numbers do suggest we won't win, but others team have won before so it isn't out of the realm of possibility. 10.7& realm of possibility to be exact. So don't rule it out, Yakupov could be wearing a red and green jersey in the 2011-12 season.

    So don't forget:

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