It’s time to put this issue to bed.
The question seems preposterous. Matt Boldy is widely regarded as an established top-line forward at the age of 23. He averaged 30 goals per season in his age-21 and 22 seasons, and in his age-20 season, he rekindled Kevin Fiala’s scoring. Surely, it’s not all a mirage of beating down bad teams, right?
But his recent run of play forced the issue for me. Since November 4, he’s scored the following goals:
- Jan. 15: PPG vs. EDM -- reputation for bad defense
- Jan. 11: at SJS -- lottery team
- Jan. 7: vs. STL -- losing record
- Dec. 14: vs. PHI -- minus-19 goal differential
- Dec. 6: at ANA -- rebuilding, reputation for bad defense
- Dec. 6: at ANA
- Nov. 21: at EDM
- Nov. 14: vs. MTL -- rebuilding
- Nov 10: at CHI -- lottery team
- Nov 7: ENG at SJS
- Nov 7: PPG at SJS
So, here it is: The definitive answer to whether Boldy only scores against bad teams.
This season, there’s a bit of a trend that indicates Boldy has padded his stats against the league’s worst teams. Of his 17 goals this season, there are only five against good defenses or penalty kills:
- Nov 21 vs. EDM (11th in 5v5 GA/60)
- Jan 7 vs. STL (15th)
- Nov 3 vs. TOR (6th)
- Oct 24 PPG at TBL (11th in 4v5 GA/60)
- Oct 22 PPG at FLA (15th)
So, he’s scored over two-thirds of his goals against below-average teams. Does below-average fit the description of “bad teams,” though?
Consider his two goals against the Anaheim Ducks. They are ranked 20th in goals against per-minute. However, they’re closer to the 16th-best team in the league than the 23rd because the worst defenses in the league are so much worse than the below-average defenses.
We’re already squinting over how to measure the answer to this question, so perhaps it’s best to focus on presenting the data rather than interpreting it just yet.
Speaking of data, a larger sample should also lead to a better answer. It’s surely unwise to make sweeping judgments about any player based on 17 plays over the last three-and-a-half months, so a larger sample is required to really answer the question. Expand the sample size to include the beginning of 2024-25 and 2023-24, and that will give a more satisfying answer to the question.
Those three games with two goals jump out at first glance. Two of those two-goal games were against the Columbus Blue Jackets and Calgary Flames, two of the league’s worst teams. The third two-goal game came against the Edmonton Oilers, who many perceive to be something of a two-man team.
That’s a red flag for the Matt Boldy fraud watch.
Rather than hyper-fixating on a small sample, let’s use the whole season of data. Boldy's 2023-24 goals offer one lens that can answer the question statistically. A weighted average of each goal against the opponent’s season-long winning percentage yields a .479 average winning percentage. That would have been 18th in the league last year -- a bit below average, but not definitively so.
It’s hard to find a strong pattern by categorizing the opponents by bottom-half or bottom-third of the league standings. 14 of Boldy’s 29 goals came against the top-16 teams in the league. Nine goals were against the top-ten teams, ten against the bottom-ten teams, and ten against the other middling teams.
Still, maybe categorizing by win percentage isn’t a valuable question. What if we checked if Boldy dominated bad defenses instead of bad teams?
If the question is, Does Boldy score against bad defenses? there’s no reason to separate defending from goaltending. If all we care about is whether Boldy scores, beating the defense doesn’t count for much if he can’t also beat the goaltender. Therefore, we can use goals against per-minute (GA/60) to measure opposing defenses.
That will add a layer of complexity because his power play goals have to be analyzed separately from his even strength goals. Fortunately, Boldy neatly separated all but one of his 2023-24 games into two categories: power play-only or even strength-only.
There’s a lot to process here. Let’s start with those two-goal games.
Of the six goals he scored in his blowup games:
- One was a power-play goal against Calgary’s 15th-ranked PK.
- Two were power-play goals against Columbus’s abysmal PK.
- One was scored against Calgary’s putrid even-strength defense.
- And two were scored against Edmonton’s impressive five-on-five defense.
Edmonton’s defense is an interesting note about narrative-building. The Oilers have struggled on defense in the past: they ranked 18th in even-strength goals against per-minute in 2022-23, 19th in 2021-22, and 21st in 2020-21.
However, Edmonton was one of the league’s 10 best teams at keeping the puck out of the net in 2023-24. That’s the type of nugget that in-depth statistical analysis can discover more easily than conventional wisdom.
Expanding the search outside those three games, Boldy’s play doesn’t really suggest any evidence of beating up on the league’s worst defenses. Of his 18 five-on-five goals last season, Boldy scored once against the Winnipeg Jets (1st in the league by 5v5 GA/60) and three times against Edmonton (8th). He added a goal against the Vancouver Canucks (4th), Seattle Kraken (6th), Dallas Stars (11th), Nashville Predators (12th), Vegas Golden Knights (13th), and the St. Louis Blues (16th). That’s 10 of 18 against teams in the top 16 defenses in the league.
If you want that as an all-in-one statistic that accounts for the goals Boldy scored against bad defenses, we can use an average of the GA/60 weighted by the number of goals Boldy scored against them. That number is 2.53 GA/60, about the 18th- or 19th-best defense in the league. That makes sense. He should score slightly more goals against bad defenses. That’s what makes them bad defenses!
On the power play, Boldy was ahead of that trend. He scored 5 goals against the league’s top-16 penalty kills: One against the Los Angeles Kings (2nd best 4v5 GA/60), Pittsburgh Penguins (9th), Seattle (12th), Colorado Avalanche (14th), and Calgary (15th). Using the same weighted average, his average power-play goal was scored against 6.99 GA/60, equal to about the 13th- or 14th-best kill in the league.
Evidence is mounting that Boldy doesn’t just score against bad teams. On the other hand, the team-level data doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story of precisely who Boldy played. Even good defensive teams have weak links, and Minnesota’s coaches could have targeted those players to get easier matchups during Boldy’s minutes.
That question is infinitely complicated. The entire Minnesota Wild advance scouting staff could come to different opinions on how tough Boldy’s minutes were last season. However, great work from The Athletic last season can help us answer that question. The 2023-24 Wild players saw the below impacts from quality of competition and help from their teammates:
The Athletic's analysis gave Boldy a small bump in his offensive rating, which likely reflects his playing so many minutes with Kirill Kaprizov down the stretch.
On the other hand, his defensive assignments were so difficult that they were two or three times as impactful on his overall rating in the model. While we can’t narrow this data down to only the plays where he scored, it indicates that Boldy’s matchups were difficult. His opponents were skilled at keeping the puck and scoring.
So, lower the red flag for now. Matt Boldy scores against good teams and good defenses about as often as the bad ones.
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