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  • Does Auston Matthews Set the Market For Kirill Kaprizov's Next Deal?


    Image courtesy of Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
    Tony Abbott

    On Wednesday, the NHL saw the first Mega Deal of the Rising Cap Era. Auston Matthews signed a four-year extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs that has him set to be the highest-paid player in the NHL in 2024-25, with a $13.25 million Average Annual Value (AAV). It comes in anticipation of the salary cap finally rising after COVID-related financial issues deflated it for years.

    The jump from Nathan MacKinnon's league-leading $12.6 million AAV is notable enough in itself. That it's over four years, when the trend in the NHL is more years = more money, is pretty eye-opening. Evolving-Hockey's contract projections had Matthews at $12.83 million on a four-year deal, using a $90 million salary cap as a baseline (it's currently $83.5 million).

    The good news for Toronto is that even at the highest AAV in the NHL, Matthews is still wildly underpaid. In fact, it's arguably impossible for him to be properly paid in the NHL. The CBA bars players from making more than 20% of the salary cap, or a $16.7 million AAV as of this season. Even coming off a season where Matthews "only" scored 40 goals and 85 points, he's still easily worth the league maximum, if not more.

    But you're on Hockey Wilderness, your Minnesota Wild site, so you might be wondering why we're talking about this. Matthews' contract has massive implications for the Wild, because we're finally getting a sense of what a superstar player is going to earn over the next few years. And with Minnesota needing to extend true superstar Kirill Kaprizov around two years from now, Matthews might well set the market.

    One could correctly point out that Matthews is a superior player to Kaprizov. Not only does Matthews play the premium position (center) as opposed to the wing, but Matthews outshines Kaprizov in basically every stat. Since Kaprizov broke into the league, Matthews has the edge in goals (141 to 116), points (257 to 234), and a huge edge in Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement (24.0 SPAR to 14.5).

    So why should we expect Kaprizov to make Matthews-level money?

    Don't fool yourselves. The Wild need Kaprizov as much as the Leafs need Matthews. Not only is Kaprizov the only star talent to walk through Minnesota's door since Marian Gaborik, but he transcends the game in a way Gaborik couldn't. The hockey world at large could ignore Gaborik, dismiss Zach Parise, and say That's who he's playing for? about Eric Staal when they'd go on impressive runs for Minnesota.

    But the league takes notice when Kaprizov is doing his thing. He's already won the only major player award in team history (apologies to the Jennings and Masterton Trophies) with the Calder Trophy. He has also received Hart Trophy votes in all three seasons. Kaprizov's not just incredible at hockey, he's marketable in a way no one else in team history has been. He's the Face of the Franchise.

    That will have to come with Face of the Franchise-level pay. And one thing's for sure: Kaprizov's not going to sign another bargain basement contract to stay in Minnesota.

    It sounds kind of absurd to say that the player who got a five-year, $45 million contract immediately after his rookie season signed for a bargain basement deal. In the aftermath of the signing, many felt the Wild took on a lot of risk and/or overpaid. No one feels that way now, and that deal is turning into a steal for Minnesota. 

    The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn rated Kaprizov's market value in his 47-goal, 108-point 2021-22 season to be worth $14.6 million. Last season's market value is trickier to locate, but he projects Kaprizov to provide $12.6 million of surplus value on his $9 million AAV over the next three years. Divide that $12.6 million by three, then add it to the $9 million, and we get a projected market value of...

    Well, look at that. $13.2 million per season. $50K per year short of what Matthews just got. 

    Mind you, Kaprizov negotiated his last deal with very little in the way of actual leverage on his side. He had no arbitration rights after his rookie season, and no teams could make him an offer for him to sign as a Restricted Free Agent. All he had, really, was the nuclear option of going back to Russia, which would have hurt him nearly as much as Minnesota.

    Yet, he still got more money than the Wild wanted to give him, for fewer years than they wanted to extend him.

    None of this is necessarily earth-shattering. Most Wild fans knew coming into this week that whatever contract Kaprizov was going to get to extend in Minnesota, it was going to have to be big. But with Matthews inking the first huge deal of a league with an economic landscape much different than what we've seen in recent years, we got our first piece of the puzzle of what the actual number might be.

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

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    4 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

    What is the literal meaning of Velociraptor?

    The word velociraptor combines the Latin velox, "swift," and raptor, "robber or plunderer."

    The mean dinosaur in the movies

    Edited by Pewterschmidt
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    2 hours ago, Dango said:

    Im just looking at the future for when he has  bigger expectation being a mn icon  which usually comes with success and money etc .  Hopefully it all stays good and nothing sours it  .  

    I know how #97 could endear himself to the Minnesota fans. Halloween coming up bud. The Russian Prince has a nice ring to it.

    OIP.jpg.f9cc4311291df2e85ec6808f9a82e783.jpg

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    3 hours ago, Dango said:

    Mn has a fan base that to often brings politics into their decisions on weather to support players when they reach star status so hopefully that doesnt happen here .  Before #97 can want to be here he has to be welcomed here .  

    This comment has no bearing on the MN Wild or fans and not needed here

    You have the right to your statement and opinion, but don't bring politics into this. This is one place WE can all be fans no matter how we live, believe or think outside this forum. 

     Im not sure where your going with this. But its pretty offensive!

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    2 hours ago, Dango said:

    Im just looking at the future for when he has  bigger expectation being a mn icon  which usually comes with success and money etc .  Hopefully it all stays good and nothing sours it  .  

    He's already a MN icon and franchise player 

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    11 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

    This comment has no bearing on the MN Wild or fans and not needed here

    You have the right to your statement and opinion, but don't bring politics into this. This is one place WE can all be fans no matter how we live, believe or think outside this forum. 

     Im not sure where your going with this. But its pretty offensive!

    I don't mind after all politics are injected into everything. Sports leagues 100% promote popular agendas. By proxy our conversations cannot avoid getting a little mud on em when we're traveling a dirt path.

    I don't see any issue especially since Reaves and Dumba dabbled in activism and the NHL aligns with certain social campaigns. Fans have their views leading to an intrinsic division. 

    I presume Dango is referring to the anti-Russian sentiment in media related to the war with Ukraine. That question or suggestion of uncertainty has been mentioned on this site related to Wild prospects.

    I mean, a stand alone post on Trump's mugshot would be inappropriate but if it's relevant to the Wild or players we shouldn't get too worked up.

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    46 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

    This comment has no bearing on the MN Wild or fans and not needed here

    You have the right to your statement and opinion, but don't bring politics into this. This is one place WE can all be fans no matter how we live, believe or think outside this forum. 

     Im not sure where your going with this. But its pretty offensive!

    When i use politics i use that term in a broad sense "not really actual politics "    examples 

    Chuck Knoblauch didnt sign an autograph  at an airport was run out of town,

    David Ortis was lazy  ran out of town

    Moss made a few bonehead moves  ran out of town

    Cousins didnt do this  trying to run out of town

    Ciccarelli did a dumb thing ran out of town

    all minor things that were blown out of proportion so we got the political pitchforks out ,   

    i dont mean democrat republican politics .   At work we use politics as a term for doing what pleases the masses .   It could be simple as wiping off your feet before entering a persons house to work on it  putting down a tarp etc.  giving a waitress a tip ,   Things that a large number of people will rally around .    i probably should used a better term  .

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    3 minutes ago, Dango said:

    When i use politics i use that term in a broad sense "not really actual politics "    examples 

    Chuck Knoblauch didnt sign an autograph  at an airport was run out of town,

    David Ortis was lazy  ran out of town

    Moss made a few bonehead moves  ran out of town

    Cousins didnt do this  trying to run out of town

    Ciccarelli did a dumb thing ran out of town

    all minor things that were blown out of proportion so we got the political pitchforks out ,   

    i dont mean democrat republican politics .   At work we use politics as a term for doing what pleases the masses .   It could be simple as wiping off your feet before entering a persons house to work on it  putting down a tarp etc.  giving a waitress a tip ,   Things that a large number of people will rally around .    i probably should used a better term  .

    I get it from your explanation and appreciate your reply.

    That's called integrity, gratitude and morals! Enough said...Thx

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Dango, as you know, I am an out of market fan. What is your evidence to support this comment? I didn't think when I lived there that this was the way we looked at players. With all of the stars in MN, across all sports with the possible exception of the NBA, if the stars produced, I feel like they were accepted into the community just fine. However, it's been almost 40 years since I moved out. 

    I always found politics to take a 2nd seat to production.....or maybe even further back!

    What's uniquely interesting is how many stars in all of the sports get drafted here, traded here, move here with their families, and usually end up staying beyond their contracts and in their retirement lives.

    Nothing has changed mnfaninnc..

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    42 minutes ago, Protec said:

    I don't mind after all politics are injected into everything. Sports leagues 100% promote popular agendas. By proxy our conversations cannot avoid getting a little mud on em when we're traveling a dirt path.

    I don't see any issue especially since Reaves and Dumba dabbled in activism and the NHL aligns with certain social campaigns. Fans have their views leading to an intrinsic division. 

    I presume Dango is referring to the anti-Russian sentiment in media related to the war with Ukraine. That question or suggestion of uncertainty has been mentioned on this site related to Wild prospects.

    I mean, a stand alone post on Trump's mugshot would be inappropriate but if it's relevant to the Wild or players we shouldn't get too worked up.

    BUT, I've never seen it here in MN in regard to KK and it would be nice to JUST STICK TO HOCKEY.

    I can see that on TV, hear it on the radio, and read it in the newspaper....don't need it to start up here.

    THIS is ALL of OUR getaways from the daily $#%! that goes on. 

    Lets enjoy it......:classic_cool:

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    I agree #97 has never shown any kind of affiliation for off-ice ideals which is a good thing for athletes. Some elect to become polarizing characters but Kaprizov is just a guy who shows up to play hockey. I've never seen anything different.

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    On 8/24/2023 at 1:08 PM, Cole_Train said:

    Will KK want to stay in Minnesota? Money or not will be the multi million dollar question though. Players of his caliber will always get paid so will he value being here. Does he see a winning future here and can he properly market himself here? Many athletes like him make good side money with sponsors, endorsements and advertising. Does Minnesota offer those other intangibles? I sure as hell hope so. 

    I don't see KK even interested in promoting really anything unless its for a cause, never money in his pocket. I think I've seen him promote maybe two things since he's been here and they were so trivial I don't even remember.

    KK only cares about two primary things hockey and winning.

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    27 minutes ago, Dango said:

    When i use politics i use that term in a broad sense "not really actual politics "    examples 

    Chuck Knoblauch didnt sign an autograph  at an airport was run out of town,

    David Ortis was lazy  ran out of town

    Moss made a few bonehead moves  ran out of town

    Cousins didnt do this  trying to run out of town

    Ciccarelli did a dumb thing ran out of town

    all minor things that were blown out of proportion so we got the political pitchforks out ,   

    i dont mean democrat republican politics .   At work we use politics as a term for doing what pleases the masses .   It could be simple as wiping off your feet before entering a persons house to work on it  putting down a tarp etc.  giving a waitress a tip ,   Things that a large number of people will rally around .    i probably should used a better term  .

    I got bamboozled by ads and wasn't able to follow all the comments in order. 

    Randy Moss was one of the worst failures. He was so good. Can't say I blame him for that but the press and fans did jump on him despite Dante's Lake Minnetonka debauchery and plethora of fumbles. 

    I agree with you that MN fans and media need to appreciate #97 and keep him around. His talent and character is not common but MN has indeed found ways to sour on formerly anointed saviors.

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    12 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

    He was born and raised in a outlying area in Russia. His family is very much off the main grid from suburban areas of Russia in Novokuznetsk. He and his brother are big outdoorsman and  family are far from big city. Where he grew up is much like Minnesota. 

    He'll stay if he can win, location, his team and a fair contract are secondary. If you paid attention to his demeanor,  interaction with the media versus his teammates it pretty easy 

    Panarin has a very similar story.

    he was born in a very small town outside of Moscow.

    a lot of these players who grew up in a small town have aspirations of getting away and playing on the biggest stage they can.

    I think you’re assuming a lot here and judging what’s on the surface.

    for all we know he’s graciously doing his time before he can get to one of the big cities and try to win a Cup.

    If you look at it from an unbiased view, most people will say that the Wild don’t have a great chance of winning a Cup in the next 5 years.

    We have a good prospect pool but don’t have any can’t miss, truly elite players, that you need to win a Cup.

    I certainly don’t think it’s that easy to see.

    we shall see what the future holds though.

     

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    7 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

    This comment has no bearing on the MN Wild or fans and not needed here

    You have the right to your statement and opinion, but don't bring politics into this. This is one place WE can all be fans no matter how we live, believe or think outside this forum. 

     Im not sure where your going with this. But its pretty offensive!

    While I agree with you that bringing politics into sports and the comments discussion is definitely annoying and unnecessary, I don’t see a single thing offensive about what he said.

    the word offensive seems to have lost its meaning and is thrown out way to much now a days in a lot of people’s opinion.

    I'm glad he elaborated on his point because it was an interesting thing to think about even though a little random.

     

     

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    2 minutes ago, Mateo3xm said:

    Panarin has a very similar story.

    he was born in a very small town outside of Moscow.

    a lot of these players who grew up in a small town have aspirations of getting away and playing on the biggest stage they can.

    I think you’re assuming a lot here and judging what’s on the surface.

    for all we know he’s graciously doing his time before he can get to one of the big cities and try to win a Cup.

    If you look at it from an unbiased view, most people will say that the Wild don’t have a great chance of winning a Cup in the next 5 years.

    We have a good prospect pool but don’t have any can’t miss, truly elite players, that you need to win a Cup.

    I certainly don’t think it’s that easy to see.

    we shall see what the future holds though.

     

    Similar but different with Panarin, who now plays in New York and shuffled around the league in Chicago and Columbus. He was undrafted and never a prized player other than one good year coming out of Russia unlike KK.

    If I was judging this from the surface I wouldn't have provided you the detail insight nor the attention to detail that following KK since his draft status and every year after.

    He is who he is and there is no hidden agenda with him. He loves the game of hockey and keeps to himself and his teammates.

    Do the Wild have a chance of winning a cup, we'll see, but the future couldn't be more planned as an organization since the start of the franchise in 1997. We've never had this kind of leadership or prospect pool.

    KK isn't going anywhere but MN in three years. I guarantee it.

     

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    2 minutes ago, Mateo3xm said:

    While I agree with you that bringing politics into sports and the comments discussion is definitely annoying and unnecessary, I don’t see a single thing offensive about what he said.

    the word offensive seems to have lost its meaning and is thrown out way to much now a days in a lot of people’s opinion.

    I'm glad he elaborated on his point because it was an interesting thing to think about even though a little random.

     

     

    As I said, I just want to stick to hockey, dont you?

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    8 hours ago, Dango said:

    i probably should used a better term  .

    Yeah, that confused us all. I think the examples you gave are performance rated both on and off the field/ice. The community expects a lot from its highly paid athletes/heroes, especially the way they act in the community. 

    This is what made Prosser such a valuable asset. He was a 7th D who never complained and always took time when it was needed in the community. I think we should uphold these players to very high standards and they should be exemplary in the community (not perfect, but excellent). We all have bad days, even the best of us.

    But to call that politics, it's just not the right term. This seems to be more of a behavior thing, not a politics thing.

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