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  • Did Vancouver Do Minnesota A Solid By Re-Signing Brock Boeser?


    Image courtesy of Bob Frid - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    "You have to be careful, because July 1 can be a day of mistakes," Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin warned back in March. "We will hopefully make good decisions and right ones. But it's going to be a time where organizationally we make a step."

    The GM was right and wrong. Where he was wrong is obvious: It's July 7, and the Minnesota Wild haven't taken an appreciable step. Their major additions have been trading for Vladimir Tarasenko, a past-his-prime scoring winger, and signing Nico Sturm, a fourth-line, penalty-killing center. Both were decent enough bets in their own right, but Guerin miscalculated what would be available via free agency.

    In fairness, it feels like everyone did. Top Wild target Brock Nelson signed long before he could taste free agency. Other top centers, such as Matt Duchene, John Tavares, and Sam Bennett, also didn't make it to July 1. The Toronto Maple Leafs traded Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights, taking the No. 1 free agent target for most teams off the board, as well. Brock Boeser was the only big-name player even remotely connected to the Wild as free agency opened.

    Then, his name was also gone after he re-upped with the Vancouver Canucks for a seven-year deal.

    And here's where Guerin was right: July 1 is a day of mistakes.

    On the most recent "Worst Seats in the House" podcast, Michael Russo revealed the Wild were willing to go for a six-year deal for Boeser. It's a revelation that surprised the reporter, who had previously believed they would pursue the scoring winger to a three- or four-year contract. When signs started pointing against Boeser coming to Minnesota, it was only then the Wild pivoted to Tarasenko.

    Still, despite knowing that free agency can be a trap, the Wild were willing to step into it and hope for the best. It's easy to dunk on a team for being willing to throw big money around. However, if you're trying to improve your team, and Boeser is what's available? Well, the price is the price.

    Make no mistake, if the Wild had signed Boeser, there would be good reason to talk ourselves into it. You might be reading that line of thinking and counter with the fact that Boeser is 36th among all NHL players in Goals Above Replacement on the power play over the past three seasons, per Evolving-Hockey. Minnesota was 21st in goals per hour on the power play last year and a middle-of-the-road team (14th) over the last three. Boeser on the power play would have given the Wild a dangerous right-shot weapon for Kirill Kaprizov to set up for one-timers.

    Boeser also has goal-scoring utility at 5-on-5. His 0.82 goals per hour over the past three seasons is tied for 106th (among 370 forwards with 1,500-plus minutes) in the NHL, along with teammate Elias Pettersson. It's also slightly ahead of star players like Marner (0.81), Mark Stone (0.81), J.T. Miller (0.80), and Kevin Fiala (0.77). That rate would have been second on the team last season, behind only Kaprizov. 

    Goals are the rarest commodity in the game, so it makes sense that Guerin was apparently willing to go for six years on Boeser, who can provide them in spades. Boeser averages 30 goals per 82 games throughout his career. While he has had trouble consistently playing 82 games, he has drawn in at least 70 times in each of the past four seasons.

    So, why would we think the Canucks did the Wild a favor by biting the bullet on Boeser? 

    Boeser provides a team with goals, but he's a flawed player overall. Do you take that tradeoff when he's on an Entry-Level Contract? Absolutely. Do you take that tradeoff when he's making below $7 million? Yeah, probably. But what about when his price shoots above $7 million, and you're now footing the bill for his early 30s? It gets dubious.

    At age 28, Boeser still has some peak-ish years left. But the Wild have been burned by his player profile before: Great shot, low speed, and poor defense. Dany Heatley and Thomas Vanek come to mind. Jason Pominville -- though not quite that profile -- saw his last 30-goal season at age-31, then never hit 20 again. Unless you're a freak like Alex Ovechkin or Steven Stamkos, elite shots go away eventually, and you have to have a backup.

    Granted, Dom Luszczyszyn is bullish on Boeser to replicate Phil Kessel's aging curve. That's clearly the bet Vancouver is making and what Guerin -- who was in the front office while Kessel got his Cup rings with the Pittsburgh Penguins -- would also bank on. But the rest of those top Boeser comparables include Derick Brassard, Adam Henrique, Artem Anisimov, P.A. Parenteau, Milan Michalek, Alex Chiasson, and Michael Ryder. Not exactly an inspiring list.

    One should also assume that the Canucks got a cap hit discount that wasn't available to Minnesota because league rules allow teams offering an extension to add an extra year. Boeser's getting $50.75 million on his seven-year deal. For Boeser to recoup that money for a six-year pact, the Wild would have had to pay in the range of $8.5 million per year. Vancouver may also have gotten the "hometown discount" despite Boeser being from Minnesota because moving to another team would have uprooted his life.

    Still, even at $8 million, that's not a bet that was likely to age well. Despite the short-term boost it would have given the Wild's power play, going for Tarasenko as a stopgap while retaining flexibility to pursue a bigger fish at a later date is the smart play. If they had to get an assist from the Canucks to do the right thing, so be it. 

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    I wonder if Boeser had a handshake deal from the Canucks. They had extensive talks around the TDL and Vancouver did not trade him. I just wonder if the handshake was to give Vancouver the last chance to match? I'll bet this is more frequent than reported. During the legal tampering period, perhaps MN was his best deal and he took it to Vancouver and they didn't just match but added a year. 

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    Where’s this big fish coming from? Billy couldn’t get two Minnesotans to go to free agency to get his offer even though there agent knew Billy was in on them.  Was he in on Marner? No, marner wouldn’t consider Minnesota. Did he land Eichel? No. How about the trade for Peterka? No billy didn’t have assets to get him . 
        High end free agents don’t want to come here  and Billy doesn’t have  the assets to make a big trade or can he convince high end players to come here.  So this narrative Billy is just lurking waiting for a big fish is a joke. Hes been in on big fish and can’t land them. He’s been in on trades and can’t make them.  He wasted 6 years , draft position and lots of assets to lose a record amount of first round exits knowing his team had no chance in hell of going anywhere.  Now he’s paying the price with his undersized dented can prospects that can’t get you anything in a trade . Billy and the biilly believers new excuse is it’s smart Billy can’t do his job . He needs another year for next years free agency. Haha  like Russo said , free agency has changed with salary cap going up.  There is no big game coming next year to Minnesota via free agency. He couldn’t even get Brock Nelson to come here let alone some free agent in his prime.  What big trade is Billy going to make at deadline? He has nothing to trade?  Billy  has no plan but to make excuses and have the media justify it with morale victory . Billy doesn’t  win anything. Playoff rounds, free agency,  trades or contracts. He’s a loser that devalues assets and lies about it. 

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    29 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    With ODC slightly edging towards the rational middle, Dean looking to keep the super pessimist train rolling....

    🍻

    it's summer - what can i say!

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    2 hours ago, Dean said:

    Where’s this big fish coming from? Billy couldn’t get two Minnesotans to go to free agency to get his offer even though there agent knew Billy was in on them.  Was he in on Marner? No, marner wouldn’t consider Minnesota. Did he land Eichel? No. How about the trade for Peterka? No billy didn’t have assets to get him . 
        High end free agents don’t want to come here  and Billy doesn’t have  the assets to make a big trade or can he convince high end players to come here.  So this narrative Billy is just lurking waiting for a big fish is a joke. Hes been in on big fish and can’t land them. He’s been in on trades and can’t make them.  He wasted 6 years , draft position and lots of assets to lose a record amount of first round exits knowing his team had no chance in hell of going anywhere.  Now he’s paying the price with his undersized dented can prospects that can’t get you anything in a trade . Billy and the biilly believers new excuse is it’s smart Billy can’t do his job . He needs another year for next years free agency. Haha  like Russo said , free agency has changed with salary cap going up.  There is no big game coming next year to Minnesota via free agency. He couldn’t even get Brock Nelson to come here let alone some free agent in his prime.  What big trade is Billy going to make at deadline? He has nothing to trade?  Billy  has no plan but to make excuses and have the media justify it with morale victory . Billy doesn’t  win anything. Playoff rounds, free agency,  trades or contracts. He’s a loser that devalues assets and lies about it. 

    I think this sight needs another emoji for Are you f----g nuts?

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    Wow, so much to unpack with Dean's comment.

    But my question to him is, why not watch a different team??

    Marner was never coming here, nor would we want him??  He's soft as baby shit and will absolutely disappear in the playoffs with Vegas as well.

    Eichel??  He was never coming either, and would get his ass handed to him in the Central division.

    Peterka, would have been a great pick up, but Buffalo wanted big bodied NHL ready players, especially a RH D-man.

    Boeser was never coming here....as he wasn't taking anything less than a 7 year deal, which would have been a bag of shit for us after 4 years. 

    Sturm and Tarasenko are great assets to the team....has anyone been watching sturm the past two years??  Dude r is a quality 4th line center, great faceoff guy and knows our system.  And tarasenko is also a great addition. You think he gave 110 in Detroit??  Absolutely not. Oh he's past his prime....you kidding me, know how many *past their prime" guys had career years in the NHL this year??!!  Tarasenko will surprise all the naysayers this year, guaranteed.And people who are waiting for BIG names, we will get our guy or two at the TDL....we got our small pieces that we also needed out of the way. Too many people are used to trading scenarios on their XBOX 360 playing NHL25🤷‍♂️😆

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    So, .82 goals per hour 5 on 5.  Lets break this stat down a bit.  Lets say he plays 20 minutes a game for the season.  Which would probably be a increase in playing time.  So less than one goal per 3 games.  Lets just say 1 goal per 3 games.  That is 27 goals on the year.  Which would put him as the team leader last year tied with Boldy.  Is that worth 8 million a year.  When you think about it that is only 3 goals more than Rossi.  By the way Rossi is widely considered not worth 7 million a year.  

    Boeser would have been top five on the Wild.  So it would have been an improvement.  However, what would be the cost of signing him to a seven year deal.  Which is also telling that Vancouver could have signed him for one more year and they said, "NOPE"

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    All I can say is some teams were able to sign free agents and make trades for star players.  The Wild is not one of them.  IMO with the limited additions to the team we are no better than we were last year as of now.  

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    44 minutes ago, greg said:

    IMO with the limited additions to the team we are no better than we were last year as of now.  

    Yup.  I refer to this as bill moving the team sideways. As GM he’s just treading water.  We’ll run the same group of one and done’rs, except they are all one year older.  But P-dingle they had best record in December Bob lob law.  They came out of gates hot (Hynzy gets alot of credit), but then nearly MISSED the playoffs.  Had to sign NyQuil out of desperation.  News flash: ALL teams have injuries

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    In fairness to Guerin, the issue of free agents not wanting to come to Minnesota was an issue long before he was GM. The ownership team should be the ones addressing the issue of why guys have no interest in Minnesota. Minnesota is the state of hockey, yet no one wants to come here.

    Guerin needs to alter his free agent strategy and proactively make trades. If free agents won't come, then the next best option is trade for someone. That would require Guerin to stop trash talking his players in the media and Brackett would need to draft better, but it could work.

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    Free agents will start signing with more frequency if or when the Wild show any playoff consistency.  Until then, they need their prospects to get them over the hump instead.

    The team is in a slightly less dire situation than the "first young core" cause Kap and Boldy have higher ceilings than Parise/Suter, but their new guys need to contribute this or next year.  Maybe a Rossi for someone trade shows up...

    But no trade nor free agent WANTS to be here.  2nd or 3rd round appearances would change that.  Dallas and Carolina showed that by keeping or signing pretty much anyone they want.

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    Every player in the NHL wants to win, right? And every player wants to get paid. The big difference between Cup winning or contending teams and all the others is that the players prioritize winning over getting paid to a greater extent.

    The mentally is often, 'If I'm not going to win at least I'm going to get paid '. Look at the Panthers roster and their contracts. Look at the deal Marner has with Vegas. And look at the Wild's roster and their contracts.

    I understand how the Wild got to this point due to cap Hell. But the Foligno, Hartman, Trenin, Zuccarello and Middleton contracts are weighing this team down. They combine for over $20M of the $92.7M (adj for buyouts and bonuses) in available cap space, or about 22%. You could throw the Spurgeon contract in but that is not as recent.

    I like those guys as players, with the exception of Trenin. They seem to be good teammates and have character. But the roles they play should be done on ELC's or Sturm or Tarasenko-type contracts.

    The bottom line is this, especially for middle of the pack teams like the Wild; if you can't win you are going to pay. The only way out is to start winning. And you start winning by developing prospects, making smart personnel moves, and building around a very talented and affordable core.

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    5 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Free agents will start signing with more frequency if or when the Wild show any playoff consistency.  Until then, they need their prospects to get them over the hump instead.

     

    And yet they don't show any interest in playing their prospects.  Ohgren should have had some run at the end of the season and a bit of experience in the playoffs, but instead we traded (limited) assets for Nyquist and that stiff from Boston.  

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    Ohgren was hardly anything to write home about last season.  The trades for Nyquist and Brazeau are shoulda, coulda, woulda, but Ohgren did about as much as Khusnutdinov did, which was fuck all.  

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    19 hours ago, Dean said:

    Where’s this big fish coming from? Billy couldn’t get two Minnesotans to go to free agency to get his offer even though there agent knew Billy was in on them.  Was he in on Marner? No, marner wouldn’t consider Minnesota. Did he land Eichel? No. How about the trade for Peterka? No billy didn’t have assets to get him . 
        High end free agents don’t want to come here  and Billy doesn’t have  the assets to make a big trade or can he convince high end players to come here.  So this narrative Billy is just lurking waiting for a big fish is a joke. Hes been in on big fish and can’t land them. He’s been in on trades and can’t make them.  He wasted 6 years , draft position and lots of assets to lose a record amount of first round exits knowing his team had no chance in hell of going anywhere.  Now he’s paying the price with his undersized dented can prospects that can’t get you anything in a trade . Billy and the biilly believers new excuse is it’s smart Billy can’t do his job . He needs another year for next years free agency. Haha  like Russo said , free agency has changed with salary cap going up.  There is no big game coming next year to Minnesota via free agency. He couldn’t even get Brock Nelson to come here let alone some free agent in his prime.  What big trade is Billy going to make at deadline? He has nothing to trade?  Billy  has no plan but to make excuses and have the media justify it with morale victory . Billy doesn’t  win anything. Playoff rounds, free agency,  trades or contracts. He’s a loser that devalues assets and lies about it. 

    People don’t like to hear the truth around here. Billy may be the worst GM in the NHL and will probably go down as the Wild’s worst GM after all is said and done. That’ll be quite the accomplishment considering their history. 

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    1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Ohgren was hardly anything to write home about last season.  The trades for Nyquist and Brazeau are shoulda, coulda, woulda, but Ohgren did about as much as Khusnutdinov did, which was fuck all.  

    Ohgren went to Iowa and worked and put up some decent numbers toward the end.  I would have rewarded that and let him get his feet wet and jitters out in case he is on the team for playoffs this year.  And if Ohgren did fuck all, what did Brazeau and Nyquist do?  

    I kind of would like a GM to give his own prospects an opportunity than bringing in total scrubs and sending a message he thinks the scrubs are always a better option.

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    On 7/8/2025 at 12:13 PM, Dis-allowed display name said:

    Ohgren went to Iowa and worked and put up some decent numbers toward the end.  I would have rewarded that and let him get his feet wet and jitters out in case he is on the team for playoffs this year.  And if Ohgren did fuck all, what did Brazeau and Nyquist do?  

     

    I kind of would like a GM to give his own prospects an opportunity than bringing in total scrubs and sending a message he thinks the scrubs are always a better option.

    Every time the Wild has brought Ohgren up, he's been a passenger on his line.  He seems like he's playing safe and is trying not to screw up.  I think he will do better this season, but bringing him into the playoffs probably would have had him take a step backward instead of forward.

    Brazeau and Nyquist certainly didn't work out, and I wish that the Wild would have done something differently there, but I think having Ohgren end his season on a good note rather than cratering his confidence was a good move and will hopefully translate into a player who returns to the NHL this year and stays there.

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