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  • Did the Wild's Power Play Prop Up Their Offense Too Much Last Year?


    Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron - USA TODAY Sports
    Luke Sims

     

    The Minnesota Wild were in the back half of the league in terms of powerplay rankings last season, scoring at a 21.4% clip during the 2022-23 campaign. Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello, and Matt Boldy carried the team offense. The top unit of Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Calen Addison was the only effective power play unit for Dean Evason and the Wild. 

    While they were not great amongst their leaguewide counterparts, the Wild didn’t have any more luck with their second unit. But were they doing too much damage on the powerplay and not enough at even strength? 

    Kaprizov was tied for 17th in the NHL among forwards in powerplay points. If you extrapolate his points to an entire season like many of his counterparts, the Russian would have been tied at 10th in the NHL with roughly 36 powerplay points. Kaprizov only suited up for 67 games last season, while his competition played in at least 78 games. That’s 12 games where Kaprizov could have added to his powerplay point totals. Behind the absurdity of the trio in Edmonton, Kaprizov would have been amongst the best in the league on the powerplay. 

    But unlike the players in that tier, like Matthew Tkachuk (36 pp points), Jason Robertson (41), Mitch Marner (36), and David Pastrnak (37), Kaprizov is doing a lot more of his damage on the powerplay than not. Minnesota’s star winger scored a whopping 43% of his points on the powerplay. For comparison, Pastrnak and Tkachuk only scored 33% of their points on the powerplay, while players like Robertson and Marner scored 37% and 38%, respectively. 

    All these players are in contention to be among the best at their position and are top players in the league. Stars get time on the powerplay, and teams expect them to produce. Kaprizov did just that. The Russian scored goals and made plays. So why does it matter that he has more points on the powerplay? 

    Because Kaprizov is not the only Wild player leaning on the man advantage to score, Boldy and Zuccarello are not as high in the total points rankings, but they both had at least a 40% share of their points on the powerplay. Addison was over 60% by himself. Eriksson Ek is a more manageable 38%.

    There were no Wild players outside of the top group that even registered six points on the powerplay. Marcus Johansson has five, but he only played 20 games with the Wild at the end of last season.

    The Wild were also 29th in the NHL in goals/60 at even strength. That number jumps to 24th in all situations. So, the Wild offense was better with the powerplay, but it’s not like it was good to start with. 

    For example, a team like the Boston Bruins had an excellent offense with more than four powerplay contributors. There were players with decent point totals on the powerplay outside the top five guys. The Bruins had the second-best offense at even strength and a top powerplay unit. Their powerplay worked in tandem with their offense. Minnesota’s powerplay was sometimes the only hope they had to score goals.

    It’s no secret that the Wild were not as effective 5-on-5. But the players scoring on the powerplay were also scoring at even strength. Players like Ryan Hartman (27) and Jared Spurgeon (23) put up almost all their points at even strength. Those players are valuable because of their contributions at even strength. Still, the top four even strength point producers were Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, and Boldy. Addison did not contribute as much 5v5 and worked as a powerplay specialist most nights. This one-dimensionalism led to his time spent scratched. 

    So yes, while power play production aided many of the Wild’s top scorers, they were also the only ones doing any damage at even strength. That speaks more to Minnesota’s team offense as a whole rather than their powerplay merchants. Goals are goals, and the Wild will take them however they can. 

    All stats and data via Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.

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    If KK played on lines like Tkachuk,  Robertson, Marner and Pastrnak his goal scoring would be.more balanced too. The merry go round of players on his line last year, injuries to him and his line all had their impact. When Hartman is not an option, or Zucci is off, focus on KK and shut him down.

    Ek's level was probably helped by Boldy and then JoJo at the end if the season.

    Would love to see where it lines up with Dino and Yurov as his line mates. Luke you'll be able to write about that soon, but probably not for two years. 

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    4 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

    If KK played on lines like Tkachuk,  Robertson, Marner and Pastrnak his goal scoring would be.more balanced too. The merry go round of players on his line last year, injuries to him and his line all had their impact. When Hartman is not an option, or Zucci is off, focus on KK and shut him down.

    Ek's level was probably helped by Boldy and then JoJo at the end if the season.

    Would love to see where it lines up with Dino and Yurov as his line mates. Luke you'll be able to write about that soon, but probably not for two years. 

    Soon 244 X 336 Gif GIF | GIFDB.com

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    5 minutes ago, Luke Sims said:

    Soon 244 X 336 Gif GIF | GIFDB.com

    Also,  I think that's Vladimir Putin's Akita dog Yume standing on the turtle that signify Russia impeding the Wilds progress....I know 🤔...pretty deep for a Saturday when we should all be 😴 sleeping in 😎.

     

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    I think what we have here is a direct correlation in what we should call the Fiala affect. The previous season, the Wild had plenty of firepower as teams had to choose which line to shut down; Fiala's, or Kaprizov's. 

    This last season, there was no respect for scoring from lines other than Kaprizov's line at even strength. But, then you put our 4 most dangerous goal scorers together for most of 2 minutes, and they suddenly get more productive. 

    Also of note, Fiala was often the 6th man 6v5, and we saw without him even that stat dry up. Grit first became the mantra, mainly due to not having enough skill in the lineup. When transition happens, our skill will have arrived. Replacing Fiala just couldn't happen right away. 

    This is statistical evidence of those who wanted us to resign Fiala and figure out another way to come under the cap (I still hold to the belief that Fiala told Shooter he wasn't going to resign longterm prior to that season). As Von points out, when Dino and Dani get here, things will be different. But that could also happen with Rossi, Beckman and Heidt, and maybe even Stramel if he remembers to pack his scoring stick this season.

    I think moving on from Greenway was a big part of the future, it meant Evason could no longer put his security blanket out on the ice. Elevating Ek to 2nd line C, a position he was already scoring in prior to the move, was good for the team, good for balance, and good for Boldy. Johansson is merely a placeholder, where I think Beckman could have a home with an outstanding camp (or Walker). 

    So, while this article is about the PP and were we too dependent on it, I would have to say no. The argument here is we changed strategies. We played gritty and defensive minded most of the season, and then took advantage of a defensive breakdown the other way, a lot on the PP. I also think the 5v5 scoring declined as we saw Zuccarello seemingly decline/fight through injury. And for the most part, Steel playing top line C just didn't get it done, and, he wasn't on the PP. 

    I do think we were a little out of balance last season, just not enough skill on the team, a little too much grit. But, to obtain skill, you have to pay for it.....or develop it, and it just hasn't been developed yet. Maybe it comes this year?

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I think what we have here is a direct correlation in what we should call the Fiala affect. The previous season, the Wild had plenty of firepower as teams had to choose which line to shut down; Fiala's, or Kaprizov's. 

    This last season, there was no respect for scoring from lines other than Kaprizov's line at even strength. But, then you put our 4 most dangerous goal scorers together for most of 2 minutes, and they suddenly get more productive. 

    Also of note, Fiala was often the 6th man 6v5, and we saw without him even that stat dry up. Grit first became the mantra, mainly due to not having enough skill in the lineup. When transition happens, our skill will have arrived. Replacing Fiala just couldn't happen right away. 

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    8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I think moving on from Greenway was a big part of the future, it meant Evason could no longer put his security blanket out on the ice. Elevating Ek to 2nd line C, a position he was already scoring in prior to the move, was good for the team, good for balance, and good for Boldy. Johansson is merely a placeholder, where I think Beckman could have a home with an outstanding camp (or Walker). 

    Saying placeholder for the time being with Beckman taking over soon or are you looking ahead to next season?

    Unless Mojo gets hurt or his play severely regresses he’ll be safe on his line for awhile. 

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    On 9/9/2023 at 11:05 PM, M_Nels said:

    Saying placeholder for the time being with Beckman taking over soon or are you looking ahead to next season?

    Unless Mojo gets hurt or his play severely regresses he’ll be safe on his line for awhile. 

    I am looking forward to '24 (both this season and next), as I believe the placeholders may finally be overtaken. For starters, Johansson is often injured. Why would we want a smooth skating somewhat skilled guy in the lineup who is injury prone? Well, if you're not to much up against the cap, you can test your younger guys in the lineup. 

    Opportunity is needed for these guys, and I've got to believe that if a young gun comes up and essentially replaces a vet with better play (tie goes to the vet), they will have earned the spot. What we have seen these last 3 years is very few of those guys have been able to do this. Some of it is working through the grind. Other parts are maturing physically. 

    Shooter has a responsibility to put a product on the ice that can compete. He owes that to the owner who mandates that specific thing. It puts him behind a little in being able to find draft pieces that will be stars, but the draft position the last 4 years hasn't mattered as much due to the pandemic. It is my estimation that our rebuild is over. Now it's a matter of developing what we've accumulated in the last 4 drafts. The heavy C draft in the early rounds this year pretty much signaled that. We'll probably get a bonus pick in this year's draft that will be a part of the future, but our future roster is about set.

    Where I have been disappointed is that within our organization, I am not seeing the physical growth happening fast enough. I don't think our strength and conditioning guys have been building the physical player large enough. Perhaps the emphasis was on skating and skill? Players have to be able to take the pounding of 110 games in a season and they cannot do that at 175-180 lbs. Even if they're not mashing people into the boards, they've got to be able to fend off the mash and that takes body mass. Where do the guys get these traits? When they go to college or Euro leagues, our Baby Wild doesn't produce them.

    Maybe this was the reason for the turnover in Des Moines? Or, maybe it was simply having another voice in the room?

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    6 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

    And jump to the next team/sport as soon as any team looks unlikely to contend.

    It's a MN thing, but not my thing. I follow the Wild and Gophers no matter what....never will waste my time on the NFL, NBA or MLB..

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    1 hour ago, vonlonster67 said:

    It's a MN thing, but not my thing. I follow the Wild and Gophers no matter what....never will waste my time on the NFL, NBA or MLB..

    I live in the heart of Chiefs country, people always ask me why I'm not a Chiefs fan. I tell them I just don't have a "team" in the NFL, I just want to see a good game no matter the opponents. Chiefs could go 0-17 or win the SuperBowl, doesn't make a s*** bit of difference to me. Not a baseball guy and can't stand the NBA so the Wild are "my team".

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    3 minutes ago, M_Nels said:

    I live in the heart of Chiefs country, people always ask me why I'm not a Chiefs fan. I tell them I just don't have a "team" in the NFL, I just want to see a good game no matter the opponents. Chiefs could go 0-17 or win the SuperBowl, doesn't make a s*** bit of difference to me. Not a baseball guy and can't stand the NBA so the Wild are "my team".

    Right there with ya brother with Wild are my team, but haven't watched an NFL game in 4 years, was a twenty five year season ticket member in my former sports life of football. The KC stadium was one of my best away game experience ever. People brag about GB, it was fun, but KC was amazing! 

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