By Justin Wiggins -
The law of unintended consequences is a fun little rabbit hole to dive into. For years, humanity has used the broad definition of the phrase as a means for explaining an event that occurred because of or used as justification for a previous decision. We see it thrown around in politics and in the workforce. It’s everywhere.
For as long as we have recorded history, philosophers have tried to look through the lens of the law of unintended consequences to help explain various incidents and events in more detail and to provide an understanding of how they work. The central definition is that every decision will eventually have a consequence. Some have taken that idea and narrowed it down to a more succinct and blunt assessment. Edward A. Murphy exclaimed, “Whatever can go wrong, will,” a bit of a darker take on unintended consequences.
But the Grandfather of the Law Of Unintended Consequences had a more lighthearted and positive approach. Sociologist Robert Merton suggested that every decision can have an unforeseen outcome, both good and bad.
The unintended consequence of Bill Guerin’s upcoming trade deadline seems to align more with Merton's.
Before the season began, Guerin extended the contracts of three veterans, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno, and Ryan Hartman, who were in the final years of their contracts. Rather than waiting to see how the season would fare and potentially move them at the trade deadline, Guerin locked his guys up. Here at Hockey Wilderness, we were pretty firmly in Murphy’s camp of the unintended consequences outcome: “Whatever can go wrong, will.”
Zuccarello and Foligno are valuable players, but they would be far past their prime through most of those extensions. Hartman is a decent player but will be in a far different role than the one that earned his contract once Minnesota's highly-touted prospects arrive. Does this extension make sense at three years, $12 million? What would happen once the season went sideways and the Wild couldn’t cash in at the deadline with assets in trading any or all three of those players?
Whatever can go wrong, will.
Maybe we should taken Merton's more neutral viewpoint, because while all those opinions above remain true, there was a potentially positive outcome for this season following those extensions. Or maybe now, in an unfolding scenario perhaps nobody saw coming. Through all the ups and downs of the season, the Wild are suddenly surging and find themselves back in the thick of the Wild Card race.
While the Wild are stuck with all their high-ticket players on unmovable contracts, every team around them in the hunt for the final playoff spot is cemented in the trade rumor mills as sellers. Has Guerin unknowingly boxed himself into creating a roster with the best chance of landing one of the last playoff spots?
Minnesota is one of five teams within five points of each other for the eighth seed in the Western Conference. That spot currently belongs to the St. Louis Blues, followed closely by the Nashville Predators, Seattle Kraken, Minnesota, and the Calgary Flames. Each of those teams and their fan bases would prefer to make the playoffs. But they also understand the perils of clawing their way into the final spot only to have the Vancouver Canucks or Dallas Stars run them off the ice in the first round.
For that reason, most of the teams around Minnesota are gauging their situation and deciding it’s best to look to the future and potentially offload some expiring contracts at the deadline rather than lose the player in the summer for nothing in free agency.
Calgary is the most obvious and public about their desire to sell. They’ve already traded away pending free agents Nikita Zadorov and Elias Lindholm, with Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin likely next. They nearly traded their franchise goaltender to the New Jersey Devils this week before the deal fell through. While they are only five points out of eighth place, they have decided to waive the white flag on the season.
Seattle hasn’t punted on their season yet. But there are rumors that they will trade Jordan Eberle to the Edmonton Oilers, the team that drafted him, and move a few more of their prominent pending free agents.
Nashville has been surprisingly good this year, but they have suggested they'd trade their top goaltender, Juuse Saros, if the package is right.
Then there’s St. Louis, the current owner of the final playoff spot. They are probably the most likely team to claim the eighth seed. But they also understand the sort of haul they could get should they trade Pavel Buchnevich before having to pay him handsomely this off-season.
Therein lies Minnesota's unintended consequence of extending their veterans before the season began. The Wild can’t trade anyone of value, really. Brandon Duhaime is the only player who might net a decent return. But if Minnesota continues to climb the standings over the next couple of weeks, it’s unlikely Guerin will trade him away.
Pierre LeBrun’s report this week doused water on the rumors that Marc-Andre Fleury could approve a trade. Fleury reportedly doesn’t want to leave if the Wild remain in contention three weeks from now. With other teams faltering around Minnesota in the standings, that also seems unlikely.
People met Guerin’s penchant for “cost certainty” with negativity in the fall, which has continued throughout the season. But as teams around them begin selling off, the Wild suddenly find themselves in the best position to benefit from their stagnation.
Whether or not you believe a first-round exit at the hands of a far superior team is best for Minnesota, Guerin put a plan in place this year to make the playoffs. His biggest mistake of the off-season just might end up saving that plan – for one year, at least.
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