Defensive Woes of the Wild: Narrative or Reality?

Let's evaluate that theory: that the problem with the Wild this season is that the defense just hasn't been there. It is the contention of some that the problem, rather than the defense, is the goalies. We should be able to determine that fairly easily, by looking at a few things.

Goals

Goals are the name of the game: the team with more wins. Last season, at 5v5, the Wild allowed a 2.2 goals-against per 60. They scored 2.5 goals per 60. "But the game isn't just played at 5v5" you say. Fine: in all situations, the team allowed 2.4 GA/60, and scored 2.7 G/60.

This year? At 5v5, the Wild are allowing goals at a rate of... 2.2 Goals Against/60. The exact same as last season. They are scoring faster, however, at 2.9 Goals For per 60. In all situations this year the Wild are allowing 2.9 GA/60 but scoring 3.1 G/60.

It's here that I'd remind everyone (myself included) that pretty much everyone who is an authority on descriptive and predictive statistics thinks that stats in "all situations" are of only slightly less use than Stu Bickel. In other words: they are next to meaningless.

Put another way: at even strength, the Wild are allowing goals at the same rate that they did last year, but they are scoring faster. Yet we also know that the Wild's 5v5 Save Percentage has dropped from 92.3% to 90.9%, so clearly there are other things going on if we are saving fewer shots, but allowing the same number of goals.

Scoring Chances

War on Ice breaks scoring chances down into two flavors: Regular and Extra Crispy High Danger. Last season, the Wild allowed 9.1 High-Danger Scoring Chances per 60, and 23.6 Scoring Chances per 60. This was good for 4^th-fewest High-Danger chances per 60 in the league, and 7^th-fewest regular Scoring chances. The Wild were very good at suppressing scoring chances last season.

Yes, the Wild are allowing more high-danger scoring chances, but the difference is minimal, and they are allowing fewer chances overall. By this measure, the defense has done a better job suppressing shots and scoring chances this season, and are solely being let down by their goaltending. Would it be nice to see that HD-scoring chance number drop? Of course, but an increase of 1.5 HDSC/60 over the first 11 games of the season is hardly something to panic about.

Shot Attempts

This is, by far, the best measure at this point in the season, simply because the sample size is the biggest. I've saved the most reliable method for last, because it simply confirms what the previous information has shown.

Last season, the Wild allowed 51.2 shot-attempts against per 60 at 5v5, good for 13^h-best in the league. This season, the Wild are allowing 50.5 shot-attempts/60, good for 7^th-best in the league.

You read that right: the Wild are allowing fewer shot-attempts per 60 at 5v5 right now than they were last year (though not by much). What's more, the rest of the league has gotten worse, and the Wild are now among the elite in shot suppression (the teams currently above the Wild are Washington, New Jersey, Carolina, St. Louis, LA, and Winnipeg).

Put more simply: the Wild defense is still one of the best in the league and not giving the other team a good look at goal.

Summation

The Wild are fine. They are creating more scoring chances and allowing fewer shot attempts than last season, despite what the narratives floating around say. The Wild's problem right now? As with last year, it's in net. Dubnyk has returned to Earth, as we all knew he would.

Would it be nice to be winning games 5-1 or 5-2 instead of 5-4? Of course it would (it'd be easier on my heart, if nothing else). If the Wild continue to play at this level and get competent goaltending, they will make the playoffs.

---------------------------------------------

All stats are score-adjusted and courtesy of War on Ice. Those guys rock