Central Division Trade Deadline Outlook: Colorado Avalanche

The series continues with the Colorado Avalanche, a team that has been in a free fall since December.

Colorado Avalanche

Record: 24-24-11, 59 points

Current Position: Sixth in Central Division, one point behind second Wild Card spot.

Joining to help take a look at the Colorado Avalanche trade deadline plans is Dryden Anderson who is the managing editor of Burgundy Rainbow, a site that blankets the Avalanche coverage. You can find the site here or on Twitter at @AvsBRblog.

1. The Avs really have been in a tailspin since the beginning of December. What has gone wrong for them?

It’s a lot of things really. The first thing that gets everyone riled up is goaltending which statistically has been very poor. I’m a bit of a contrarian here and look more at defensive zone coverages as the culprit. Shot metrics have been pretty good over this stretch but breaking it down a bit we see that they have spent lots of time trailing and that’s where a) a lot of the shot volume comes from and b) by pressing they tend to give up a lot more goals. As shot volume has increased, shooting percentage tanked. As shot volume against has decreased, save percentage tanked. It’s created a negative feedback loop that’s been tough to pull out of.

2. What are some weaknesses on the roster that could be addressed at the upcoming deadline?

This is a tough one. The Avs have a bunch of talent that is not currently on the roster. They have Cale Makar (2017 1st) and Shane Bowers (OTT 2017 1st) in the NCAA and Martin Kaut (2018 1st) in the AHL along with what looks like a pair of top-10 picks -- Avs and Ottawa’s -- in the 2019 draft. Makar will be on the roster next year for sure, the others aren’t as clear but should be options soon. They have to balance now with the future somehow while trying to be competitive. The best strategy the front office can use is to look at what they want the team to look like a year from now and prep for that.

3. Which player(s) should they be in the market for if they decide to buy?

They absolutely should not buy is the easiest way to put it. GM Joe Sakic has said that the top picks in this year’s draft along with the top prospects are not moving. That leaves little else to buy with but there are some options.

[caption id=attachment_46847" align="alignnone" width="1398] via Sean Tierney, @ChartingHockey[/caption]

4. Are there any players the Avs could dangle in return for a trade or would they more be inclined to just buy?

The names that keep coming up are defensemen Tyson Barrie and Nikita Zadorov. Barrie will be UFA a year from this July and more than likely isn’t in the long-term plan, mainly from expense and age. He’s a prolific scoring D and right-handed to boot so highly desirable on the open market. The problem is getting a deal like this done at the deadline rather than at the draft when there are more teams able to be involved. Zadorov is a large defensive D who is 23 and inconsistent but could draw some interest.

The Avs haven’t sold an expiring contract for a pick at the deadline in recent memory but there’s a first time for everything. Colin Wilson, Sven Andrighetto and Patrik Nemeth all could be in play. These fellows plus any of the AHL guys with expiring contracts are candidates for a like-for-like swap. Starting goalie Semyon Varlamov is UFA in July but without a plan B, it’s hard to see him go.

[caption id=attachment_46848" align="alignnone" width="1998] via Sean Tierney, @ChartingHockey[/caption]

5. What is your prediction for what the Avs do prior to the deadline?

I think there’s a small chance that we see a Barrie-plus package go in a big deal. My guess is that Zadorov moves for a similar forward and Sven Andrighetto gets traded for something in the same vein. Swapping Colin Wilson would be smart but he’s expensive and injury-prone so I’m not as confident that gets done.

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