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By Chris Schad -
With the Minnesota Wild’s season opener less than a week away, many hope for a rebound year in 2024-25. Part of that optimism concerns Minnesota’s stable of young players, and Matt Boldy may enter the year with the highest expectations.
The 12th overall pick in the 2019 draft, Wild fans are eager to see what Boldy has for an encore. However, while many believe the young forward can push for an 80-point season this winter, general manager Bill Guerin has higher expectations.
“I think Matt could be a 50/50 guy. I think he could give you 50 goals, 50 assists all day long,” Guerin said during an appearance on the Spittin' Chiclets podcast. “He’s that talented. He’s a ridiculous athlete. I mean, just a naturally gifted kid.”
Guerin isn’t the kind to set a low bar, but many could believe his prediction on Boldy, thanks to what we’ve seen in his first three years in the NHL. So, is a 50/50 season in Boldy’s future? Or is this an overly optimistic projection from Guerin?
If you look at Boldy’s first three seasons, it’s hard not to get carried away. Boldy scored 15 goals and 24 assists during his rookie season in 2021-22 and backed it up by scoring 31 goals and 32 assists during his first full season in the NHL in 2022-23. But what he did at age 22 last year makes Wild fans believe he can be a great player.
Since the NHL emerged from the lockout that canceled the 2004-05 season, 49 players have collected 69 points in a season where they were age-22 or younger. The list includes Sidney Crosby, Leon Draisaitl, Patrick Kane, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and Alexander Ovechkin – to name a few. However, it was a launch pad to an eventual 50/50 season for some.
There have been 16 50/50 seasons over the past 20 years, and each player on the list hit 69 points in a season at age 22 or younger. Draisaitl and Ovechkin hit the mark three different times, and Dany Heatley did it twice with Crosby, McDavid, and David Pastrnak sprinkled in.
Wild fans may need a cold shower after looking at that list. It could create visions of a monster season in 2024-25. But how does Boldy get from a promising player to a “50/50 guy” who can make Guerin’s prediction more than hyperbole?
Boldy’s consistency is one of the primary things holding him back. Boldy scored just three goals in his final 26 games during his rookie season and had scoreless streaks of eight (November 3 to 19), 11 (December 22 to January 17), and 15 games (January 28 to March 2) during his sophomore campaign in 2022-23.
Even last season, the lamp went dark a little too often for Boldy. He started the year with a 10-game scoreless streak and only scored once during a stretch from February 27 to March 23 as the Wild faded out of the playoff race.
Of course, Boldly has mixed those in with blazing-hot stretches that have Wild fans drooling over his potential. But Guerin admitted that Boldy’s consistency needs improvement.
“As a forward, I went through it mainly when I was younger, so I understand,” Guerin said. “I think consistency…it’s probably one of the hardest things to get in the game is [to] become a consistent player or perform at a high level each and every night.”
Shot quantity and selection are areas where Boldy could see an uptick in his scoring. Boldy had 227 shots during the 2023-24 season, which was at the same rate as his 255-shot season over 81 games in the 2022-23 season. His shot percentage was nearly identical, with a 12.2 percent clip in 2022-23 and 12.8 percent in 2023-24. However, it pales in comparison to previous 50/50 seasons.
Draisaitl was the only player over the last 20 years to post a 50/50 season with fewer shots than Boldy’s 255 in 2022-23. Draisaitl shot 231 times during the 2018-29 season and 247 times during the 2022-23 season.
Only three 50/50 players had a worse shooting percentage than Boldy’s 12.8 percent clip last season. Ovechkin did it twice (12.2 percent in 2005-06 and 10.6 percent in 2008-09), and MacKinnon (12.6 percent) last year.
However, some factors could also be out of Boldy’s control. Boldy’s production peaked when the Wild placed him on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov last season. The move helped Boldy contribute in the assist column when he wasn’t scoring and accentuated a strength to get his teammates involved.
While Boldy could erupt playing on a line with Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek full-time, the Wild’s scoring depth won’t allow that to happen. Boldy will still play with Eriksson Ek to begin the year, but it will be on the second line with winger Marcus Johansson, while Kaprizov plays on a top line with Ryan Hartman and Mats Zuccarello.
Still, you can trust what John Hynes is doing in his first full season as head coach. While Boldy had just one goal and seven assists in 12 games under Dean Evason, he played at nearly a point-per-game rate in 63 games under Hynes, scoring 28 goals with 33 assists.
With his shot percentage also jumping to 14.6 percent, Boldy could score more if Johansson has a rebound year or the Wild turn to prospect Liam Öhgren. Either way, more shots and better opportunities could elevate Boldy’s goal-scoring, and a better supporting cast could set up more teammates for success.
Still, we must also consider that Boldyl wasn’t on pace for a 50/50 season under Hynes. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen in the future. However, remember that only 10 players made the jump to a 50/50 player after what Boldy accomplished last season.
But it only takes one season to become a 50/50 guy. If Hynes and his supporting cast continue to get the most out of him, Guerin’s prediction could become more than just the typical preseason hype.
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