Can Kirill Kaprizov Live Up To Highest-Paid-In-the-NHL Billing?

"Dolla Bill Kirill" is about to live up to the name. So long as Kirill Kaprizov signs in Minnesota, he's going to be an incredibly wealthy man sometime in July. Minnesota Wild owner Mr. Craig Leipold has vowed that no one will pay Kaprizov more money than Minnesota will. However, lately, it's possible that no NHL team will pay any player more than the Wild are preparing to pay their superstar.

On Monday's 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman repeated some hot goss he got from NHL sources. "There are people in the league who believe this will end up being the NHL's highest-paid player," the insider said. "That in this next wave of contracts, with the cap going up... feel that Kaprizov's going to be No. 1 on the list. We'll see."

The numbers we've seen as educated guesses for that contract figure are pretty staggering. The Athletic's Michael Russo and Joe Smith are throwing out anywhere between $14 million and $16 million for an AAV. $14 million would be notable enough, tying Leon Draisaitl (whose new deal starts next season) for the largest cap hit in the NHL.

But $16 million? Damn! We're possibly talking about one of the highest cap hits for a player, ever. A $16 million AAV would represent 15.4% of the $104 million salary cap, the highest since Connor McDavid's 15.7% from his 2017 contract. 

That's a lot of money and a ton of responsibility. If Kaprizov is the highest-paid player -- or even "merely" the highest-paid winger -- that will come with a lot of scrutiny. McDavid (and Draisaitl) have dragged a flawed Edmonton Oilers squad to a Stanley Cup Final. Kaprizov will be expected to do the same thing: Consistently be among the league's best and lead his team to a Stanley Cup. 

We know Kaprizov's worth a ton of money. Is he worth that much?

Kaprizov has a great case based on his production alone. Over the past four years, Kaprizov is tied with David Pastrnak for third in the NHL in goals per game (0.60), behind only Auston Matthews and Draisaitl. In terms of points, he's tied with Matthews and Mitch Marner for sixth in points per game (1.27).

Of course, points aren't everything. So, to determine overall effectiveness, we can look at Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement metric. On there, Kaprizov is 13th in the NHL with 22.8 SPAR over the last four years, just between Roope Hintz (22.9) and Quinn Hughes (22.7). The names above Kaprizov are the usual suspects: McDavid, Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Pastrnak, Jason Robertson, Draisaitl, Matthew Tkachuk, Marner, Elias Pettersson, Nikita Kucherov, and Sasha Barkov. 

However, putting Kaprizov 13th might be a touch misleading. He's missed 64 games of a possible 324 during that time. So let's now put everyone on an even footing and see where he lands when we look at SPAR per hour (minimum 3,000 minutes):

1. McDavid, 0.337 SPAR/60
2. Matthews, 0.318
3. Pastrnak, 0.285
4. Tkachuk, 0.273
5. MacKinnon, 0.270
6. Robertson, 0.267
7. Joe Pavelski (retired), 0.259
8. Hintz, 0.255
T-9. KAPRIZOV, 0.249
T-9. Pettersson, 0.249

Either way... we see a similar placing for Kaprizov. He's the sixth-best winger in the NHL in terms of raw SPAR, and the fourth-best active winger in SPAR per hour. Does that mean he's not worth the money Minnesota's about to pay him?

Well, that depends.

Is there an argument for Kaprizov being the best player in the NHL? No, not really. Kaprizov was an early favorite for the Hart Trophy until he got injured around Christmas, but even so, he was only fifth in points per game last season. Even if you doubled his 4.0 SPAR to get to an 82-game pace, he'd still lag behind Draisaitl (9.6 SPAR) and Thomas Harley (8.4).

Through that lens, making Kaprizov the top-paid player in the league is arguably an overpay, but in a more practical sense: Who cares?

Coming into the season, Kaprizov ranked in the 2A tier on The Athletic's NHL Player Tier List. That list is generated with considerable input from NHL executives, coaches, and more. After this season, not to mention his five-goal, nine-point playoff performance, he may sneak into the 1C tier, or perhaps higher. Last season, there were just three wingers in Tier 1: Kucherov (1B), Pastrnak (1C), and Tkachuk (1C). 

Even if you think all three players are better than Kaprizov, the Wild have no shot at getting Kucherov or Tkachuk, for any dollar amount. The rebuilding Bruins might or might not put Pastrnak on the block, but he'd have a fair amount of suitors. The odds that Minnesota would land him are also low.

Meanwhile, Minnesota does have a good shot at landing Kaprizov. They can pay him more than anyone, and are fully willing to do so. The Wild don't get chances to land even borderline top-tier guys often. They took a chance on something comparable 13 years ago with the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter contracts. Kaprizov is considerably closer to the elite than either of those guys, and for a franchise like Minnesota, any price is worth it. 

Stars matter in the NHL, as the Colorado Avalanche found out when they lost Mikko Rantanen, only for him to eliminate their team with a Game 7 hat trick. If you're the Wild, you pay whatever it takes to avoid that fate for yourself.

The good thing is: they know it.