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  • Calen Addison's Trade Value Is In No-Man's Land


    Image courtesy of Bruce Fedyck-USA Today Sports
    Tony Abbott

    Addison's role as the team's power play quarterback was valuable, but is that enough to get a top asset via trade?

    It's not impossible to imagine a future where Calen Addison remains with the Minnesota Wild. But that future is becoming less favorable by the day, by the move, and the insider leaks.

    Over the last two months, Addison has experienced a bizarre change of fortune. As recently as February, you could still make an argument that the rookie defenseman should receive Calder Trophy consideration. And despite his many healthy scratches lately, his 28 points trail only Owen Power (35) and Jake Sanderson (31) for the rookie defenseman lead.

    But the Wild all but effectively ended his season in trading for John Klingberg. You could see the sense of the move, even if it made things awkward in the meantime. For all his warts, Klingberg offered playoff experience and helps Minnesota break out of their zone, a big weakness for them all season long.

    Surely that didn't mean anything else for Addison, right? Right?

    It increasingly looks like it does. February's healthy scratches might, in different circumstances, have been a normal bump in the road for a 22-year-old defenseman. Instead, it feels like a precursor to Addison being on the outs with an organization that hasn't been patient with young players.

    Michael Russo is as plugged into the thought process of the organization as anyone, and he has been speculating this for about a year. He last confirmed this on Saturday's "Worst Seats in the House" podcast, saying:

    I think the Wild have given up on him, I think they're gonna trade him this summer. I think the biggest kick in the you-know-what [Editor's Note: likely testes] was the other day in Colorado, when they played [Alex Goligoski] at a forward position when Addison made the most sense.

    Do the Wild have the ability to move on? Maybe. But maybe not. They will almost certainly lose Klingberg and Matt Dumba in free agency. Minnesota enters the summer with more dead cap space ($14.7 million) than cap room ($12.3 million). Klingberg and Dumba may not reach their current cap hits of $7 million and $6 million. But even a discount takes up too much flexibility for a team that only has 13 of 23 roster spots filled.

    So an Addison-less Wild team would have to backfill internally. Goligoski has had a rough year with plenty of healthy scratches of his own, but he has another year on his contract at age-38. Brock Faber signed on Sunday, and Minnesota expects him to make the jump to a Top-4 defense role immediately.

    Those players both carry risk to them, though. Goligoski's age is a concern. Already, Minnesota doesn't view him as an everyday option, regardless of if that's because he's not good enough to crack the lineup lately or if he benefits from the additional rest.

    Faber is as polished as an NCAA product as it gets, but will it translate to the NHL right away? Having someone like Jonas Brodin to shepherd him is a good start. But there's a step between even highly-competitive NCAA and Olympic play to the NHL.

    Daemon Hunt has skills and showed flashes of them in Iowa this year. Still, rushing a (soon-to-be) 21-year-old defenseman to the NHL after a 10-point season in Iowa seems misguided. Defense prospects like Simon Johansson and Ryan O'Rourke have also taken their lumps in Des Moines and need further development.

    So, Addison feels like the only game in town if Minnesota wants a third-pairing defenseman with upside. If they are indeed done with him, though, the return is almost guaranteed to be disappointing.

    In theory, a 23-year-old right-shot defenseman who has shown he can run a power play is pretty valuable. But as the half-decade-plus quest by three Wild general managers to trade Dumba might tell you, just because a player theoretically has value doesn't mean that they have it on the actual trade market.

    Usually when teams are trying to shop young assets, they utilize a strategy known as "pump-and-dump." They show them off by putting them in favorable situations, boosting their numbers (the pump), and then offload a possibly inflated asset onto another team (the dump).

    Addison doesn't have much pump to him. Or, at least, if they did, Evason and the Wild let quite a bit of the air out. 28 points in 60 games this year? That's a good start. But slow-playing him to the NHL means that Addison only has 78 career games under his belt at age-22.

    Among players in the 2018 Draft class, Addison ranks 31st in games played. For some perspective, Jack McBain, the former Wild prospect who only signed out of college with the Arizona Coyotes last year, already has 90 NHL games. That's hardly enough time to build a great NHL resume.

    Other teams can also see what's happened with Addison, too. They can see that Addison is getting healthy scratched for sixth-and-seventh defensemen types in Jon Merrill and Goligoski. It's easy to conclude that Minnesota wants to move on, and their history shows that once they've decided they're done with a player, they move quickly.

    In fairness, Bill Guerin's traded depressed assets for good value before. Getting a second-round pick for McBain, who told the Wild outright he wouldn't sign with him? That's a win, considering the circumstances. You can nitpick the wisdom in giving Jordan Greenway a contract that looked awful one year later, of course. Still, you can't deny flipping that contract for a second-round pick a year later is nice work, considering Greenway's seven points in 45 games.

    But the salary cap ties Minnesota's hands when it comes to trading Addison. They can't take on salary, not without dumping another one. So either they get someone else's problem youngster, or they get another draft pick. Both are a risk. If teams give up on a young player, there's a reason. And any draft pick isn't likely to contribute for about three years, at least.

    Is that worth it? Not if they're blowing a massive hole in the roster. Even if Addison is never anything but a power play specialist, he's the best quarterback the Wild's ever had guiding their top unit. With Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Filip Gustavsson, Joel Eriksson Ek, and perhaps Marco Rossi in their primes, is now the time to abandon a top power play just to reshuffle the prospect deck?

    Right now, Addison's simultaneously too valuable to Minnesota to be worth shipping out for a meager return, and not valuable enough to bring back a premium asset. It's a trade value no-man's land that seems destined for disappointment.

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    As a founding member of the Calen Addison fan club I hope that BG/DE are just being especially cautious with his development (similar to their treatment of Rossi) and keeping him out of situations he's not ready for yet.  BG chose Addison as part of the return in the Zucker trade and i'll assume BG liked Addison while he was with the Pitt org. when they drafted him.  Hope the rumors are wrong and Addison's with the Wild org when next season begins.

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    I have been very critical of Addison's play this whole year.  What is a huge red flag is the amount of times he just gets crushed in his own end, the times he takes plays off in his own end, the times where he looks disinterested in his own end. 

    I agree with the PP perspective, he is pretty good, and one of the best we've had there.  I think the main question we have to ask, though, is if Addison fits on the Wild?  The Wild consider themselves a strong defensive team, yet Addison isn't.  And, over the offseason, Addison didn't look like he even tried to improve in glaring areas of weakness.  He's still a boy among men.  

    I think his comments after the original scratching were very telling:  He said the coaches thought he was playing scared.  He also said he just needed to keep doing what he's been doing.  It is true, Addison, goes out of his way to avoid contact.  He doesn't have nearly the stick that Spurgeon or Brodin have, he doesn't even challenge the body, or at least get in the way of offensive players.  He won't throw any big hits and isn't built to do so.  Middleweights and heavyweights have their way with him.  Doing the same thing he's been doing will simply lead to more of the same.  

    Addison MUST engage in a strength/weight building program this offseason.  He's a good skater in open ice, but not with someone draped on him.  He doesn't have that elusiveness either.  His defensive angles are horrible. He needs to pay attention to what is asked of him defensively and work hard on it.  

    We can handle a below average defender. We can shield him. What we can't do is have an incompetent defender not interested in that area.  That does not fit our profile as a team and will need to others not buying in.  

    Survivability is also an issue with Addison. He gets crushed behind plays and has a hard time defending himself.  Merrill steadies him defensively, but cannot be physical enough.  Perhaps teaming him up with a Middleton could help?  But, where then does Spurgeon get a partner?  Could Tank and Jimmy be partners?  

    Lastly, and probably most importantly is the size of our right side.  Faber instantly improves that.  However, Spurgeon, Dumba, and Addison are all small.  You can't have a full corps of defenders on one side like that.  

    After Faber, there's one more in the pipeline that we could hit on, Spacek.  He's likely at least 2 seasons away.  In the Iowa highlights recently, Simon Johansson has been more visible offensively.  The rest are lefties and more defensive than offensive.  

    My conclusion is if Addison checks into his RFA meeting looking like he took offseason strength/weight seriously and has put in effort to shore up that weakness, then we have hope Addison can improve.  If he ignores this part once again, trade him this offseason, he will not survive.

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    I don't think Addison has a role in MN. He doesn't play good defense. Spurge scores more even strength and is as the reciprocal of Addison in plus/minus. 

    Where do you fit in another undersize defender of lesser quality? Just because he was part of the Zucker return, now what? You're obligated to play the guy and attempt to fit a square peg in a round hole? The Wild need to move on. Hate to say it cause he's a young player but these are the lessons learned from the Feltcher-era. Offense on defense is nice to have but replacing bottom pairing guys isn't too hard. The Wild have a nice top 4. We've waited and watched for Addison's defending to improve. How long should teams wait? Addison and Rossi could be traded now with some potential value remaining. Keep em til they're a Galchenyuk or a Nolan Patrick and you get nuthin. Just sayin, recognize the situation and move on. Get picks or defense prospects similar to Middleton or Gustaaffsson which is realistic for GMBG. I like GMs who don't try to double-down when things don't follow a nice trajectory. I.e. Addison and Rossi are both little guys who don't help you win against big strong teams in the playoffs. Prove me wrong...

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    I think he has to go personally. Addison can quarterback the power play pretty well, though how well compared to Spurgeon remains to really be seen as we haven't really given Spurg an opportunity with the same players. That is literally all he does though. He isn't even good at maintaining the puck in the offensive zone during the power play and doesn't play defense when the defending team takes the puck to our end.

    He looks disinterested in playing defense at even strength, pulling a Ryan Suter and quitting on the play when someone gets past him on the regular. He gets crushed in corners and loses puck battles regularly. His stick work on defense is lousy.

    At even strength his offense is also quite poor. He can't transition the puck up the ice well himself, his breakout passes aren't particularly good, and he does pretty much nothing when there is a man covering him on 5 vs. 5.

    You can't have a player on a team that only can do one thing that doesn't apply for 50+ minutes of most games. To make matters worse it appears a lot of his issue is an attitude problem, as his defense has been an issue for years and he has made no significant effort to improve it, AND you can frequently see the lack of effort he puts in on defense during the game.

    Minnesota is a team that wins by committee. We don't have a McKinnon or Bergeron line. Everyone needs to buy in and give 100%. Addison clearly doesn't do that. Sell him now when he has a lot of rookie points and he can become some other team's problem.

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    Addison and Rossi are both little guys who don't help you win against big strong teams in the playoffs. Prove me wrong...

    Everything we hate about Addison happened on the Blackhawks 1st goal.  Let's be truthful, though, it didn't look like his guy scored the goal.

    What Addison has to do is bail out Foligno on the knocked down chip pass.  

    • Addison starts out by standing completely still (orange pylon) and covering no one.  
    • He then points to someone still covering no one.
    • He then fails to cover Joey Anderson coming into his zone, let's Anderson get position putting him at a disadvantage.
    • Then as Anderson rides behind, Addison let's him cut back in front of him, outmuscle him really, and was right in front to hammer home the loose puck (which had already been knocked in somehow.

    Who is Joey Anderson?  A 24 year old 5'11" 192 forward, essentially a middleweight. You cannot let a guy like that own you physically.  But that's what happened, and that's what consistently happens to him.  Addison has no muscle to be able to stop this player from doing that.  

    Perhaps this is acceptable on other teams.  Dahlin seems to have the same things happen to him defensively.  I just don't think that this type of liability is part of the way the Wild are built.  For management, watching this replay has got to be really frustrating!

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    Everything we hate about Addison happened on the Blackhawks 1st goal.  Let's be truthful, though, it didn't look like his guy scored the goal.

    What Addison has to do is bail out Foligno on the knocked down chip pass.  

    • Addison starts out by standing completely still (orange pylon) and covering no one.  
    • He then points to someone still covering no one.
    • He then fails to cover Joey Anderson coming into his zone, let's Anderson get position putting him at a disadvantage.
    • Then as Anderson rides behind, Addison let's him cut back in front of him, outmuscle him really, and was right in front to hammer home the loose puck (which had already been knocked in somehow.

    Who is Joey Anderson?  A 24 year old 5'11" 192 forward, essentially a middleweight. You cannot let a guy like that own you physically.  But that's what happened, and that's what consistently happens to him.  Addison has no muscle to be able to stop this player from doing that.  

    Perhaps this is acceptable on other teams.  Dahlin seems to have the same things happen to him defensively.  I just don't think that this type of liability is part of the way the Wild are built.  For management, watching this replay has got to be really frustrating!

    100%.

    It looked like Anderson just out-competes Addison to stack withe the play. Sort of a broken play overall but Addison is always on the butt-end of these goals. Wild give up nearly 40 shots to Chicago. Not great. I watched Dahlin get a few points in a win the other night. He's perhaps not the best defensively but I don't think they're even close to the same category. Addison is a nice player but I just don't think MN is gonna be a fit for him. He had a chance the beginning of this year to develop in the NHL. I don't think he's coachable enough, or committed enough to doing what MN is asking. I'd rather have another Prosser who gets 6 pts per season or another Dewar who motors every shift. Addison and Rossi are just ho-hum type players for me. I couldn't give fewer cruds where they were drafted or what deal they came part of. Ready to move on...

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    11 hours ago, jgodwin17 said:

    I should also mention my gut tells me Dumba will be resigned at a lower cap hit.

    I’m beginning to think this will happen too.  He’s a glue guy and we know BG puts a premium on these types.  His defensive play hasn’t been terrible, especially with the arrival of Kling Kong.  It’s all relative I guess.  If Dumba simplified his game as he ages and play more’ stay at home’ he’ll contribute more on the ice. 

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    37 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    I’m beginning to think this will happen too.  He’s a glue guy and we know BG puts a premium on these types.  His defensive play hasn’t been terrible, especially with the arrival of Kling Kong.  It’s all relative I guess.  If Dumba simplified his game as he ages and play more’ stay at home’ he’ll contribute more on the ice. 

    It better be pretty low, though. How much can we spend on a 3rd (sometimes 2nd) pair guy?

    Note: I'm expecting Spurg-Mids and Jimmy-Faber as our top 2 lines next year.

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    13 hours ago, jgodwin17 said:

    I should also mention my gut tells me Dumba will be resigned at a lower cap hit.

    I agree that Dumba will be re-signed at a big discount.  BG is going to try and move some more salary out.  

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    18 hours ago, Protec said:

    I don't think Addison has a role in MN. He doesn't play good defense. Spurge scores more even strength and is as the reciprocal of Addison in plus/minus. 

    Where do you fit in another undersize defender of lesser quality? Just because he was part of the Zucker return, now what? You're obligated to play the guy and attempt to fit a square peg in a round hole? The Wild need to move on. Hate to say it cause he's a young player but these are the lessons learned from the Feltcher-era. Offense on defense is nice to have but replacing bottom pairing guys isn't too hard. The Wild have a nice top 4. We've waited and watched for Addison's defending to improve. How long should teams wait? Addison and Rossi could be traded now with some potential value remaining. Keep em til they're a Galchenyuk or a Nolan Patrick and you get nuthin. Just sayin, recognize the situation and move on. Get picks or defense prospects similar to Middleton or Gustaaffsson which is realistic for GMBG. I like GMs who don't try to double-down when things don't follow a nice trajectory. I.e. Addison and Rossi are both little guys who don't help you win against big strong teams in the playoffs. Prove me wrong...

    I.e. Addison and Rossi are both little guys who don't help you win against big strong teams in the playoffs. Prove me wrong...

    What about Martin St. Louis, Nikita Kucherov, Zach Parise, or little known prospect Connor Bedard? What about those little guys? All of those guys have played at the highest levels of hockey in their respective age groups and leagues? Addison I understand, Rossi I don’t want to give up on.

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    1 hour ago, Jon said:

    I.e. Addison and Rossi are both little guys who don't help you win against big strong teams in the playoffs. Prove me wrong...

    What about Martin St. Louis, Nikita Kucherov, Zach Parise, or little known prospect Connor Bedard? What about those little guys? All of those guys have played at the highest levels of hockey in their respective age groups and leagues? Addison I understand, Rossi I don’t want to give up on.

    I agree on not giving up on Rossi. He has some pretty noticeable set backs with the endocarditis (understandably). He really hasn't had a lot of great opportunities in the NHL (mostly playing on pretty subpar lines without a lot of ice time), and I think he is having difficulty adjusting. What says a lot about him though is his place and production in Iowa. Rossi is on the top line down in Iowa and is producing. Tim Army puts his trust in him and gives him opportunity.

    Addison on the other hand? He was playing third pairing defense in Iowa because he doesn't put in the effort. He doesn't want to play defense and regardless of his talent, Army had seen this and realized him for who he is.

    Rossi may have a hard time adjusting to the NHL, a lot of players do, but I don't think it is time to give up on him. He really seems to put in the effort and wants to make the team. Addison though, the guy just wants the opportunity to score points, he doesn't care about playing hockey. Send him out.

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