Bill Guerin Is the Closest Thing the NHL Has To Jerry Jones

In October, The Athletic revealed that Bill Guerin had presented Minnesota Wild owner Craig Leipold with a five-year plan. “It’s about becoming a true contender,” Guerin said. “I don’t want to try to fool anybody. I don’t think we’ve been serious contenders in the past. I just don’t. And we’re trying to get there.”

Guerin said the Wild are in Year 2 of the plan, with a few crucial tenants. They must re-sign Kirill Kaprizov, who is eligible for an extension after this season. Core players like Matt Boldy and Brock Faber must “thrive,” while top prospects like Jesper Wallstedt and Danila Yurov must “arrive and be impactful.”

Finally, Minnesota must sign a few difference-making free agents once the league reduces the cap penalties for buying Zach Parise and Ryan Suter out in 2021. Spotrac projects the Wild will have $19.6 million in cap space next season, ranking them 19th in the league. Kaprizov will demand top dollar, and the Wild must decide whether to bridge or commit to Marco Rossi. 

Mr. Leipold expects July 1 to feel like “Christmas.” Still, he appears to have tied Guerin’s fate to Kaprizov. Mr. Leipold said that when Guerin begins talks with Kaprizov and his agent next offseason, Guerin will communicate his entire “plan” to him.

 “[Kaprizov is] the most important part of our five-year plan,” Mr. Leipold said. “I think I can say that.”

Besides letting Kaprizov sign elsewhere, Mr. Leipold has given Guerin free rein to manage the Wild as he sees fit. Guerin has become the closest thing the NHL has to Jerry Jones. He doesn’t own the Wild like Jones owns the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys. Still, Mr. Leipold extended Guerin’s contract and elevated him to president of hockey operations in 2023 after four straight first-round exits.

“Four years ago, Bill brought his championship pedigree to our organization, and the improvements he’s made to our hockey team and organization are self-evident,” Mr. Leipold said in 2023. “The results are both tangible and intangible, and he continues to demonstrate his talent for building a Stanley Cup-contending team. We are excited about what the future holds for fans in the State of Hockey.”

Mr. Leipold didn’t want a complete rebuild, so he doesn’t hold Minnesota’s two first-round exits and missing the playoffs last year under cap hell against him. Still, the Wild consciously decided to try to contend under the Parise-Suter buyout penalties instead of accruing higher draft capital. Mr. Leipold also doesn’t seem concerned about Geurin’s conflicts with his former cap guy and travel secretary. Mr. Leipold said there’s “zero heat” on Guerin, who’s in his sixth season.

“If we’re almost there, maybe it takes us a sixth year [of the plan],” Leipold said. “I’m okay with that. … But we have to start with a plan and feel good about where we’re going. We have to get out of this. I don’t like not making the playoffs. It’s embarrassing.”

Jones manages the NFL’s most discussed franchise with immunity because he’s the owner. Unlike the league’s other general managers, he doesn’t report to anyone. He will maintain the job as long as he can find someone to coach the Cowboys and players who will sign in Dallas. 

Still, despite having ample resources and an aligned power structure, the Cowboys haven’t capitalized on their regular-season success in the playoffs. They haven’t been out of the second round since winning the Super Bowl in 1995. Before going 7-10 last season, Dallas had won 12 regular-season games for three years in a row. However, they lost in the first round once and in the second round the other season. 

The Wild had 113- and 103-point seasons in the two years preceding Guerin’s promotion. However, his teams have always lost in the first round of the playoffs. The Wild haven’t reached the second round since 2014-15 and have only advanced to the conference finals once, in 2002-03.

Guerin has locked in a good, young core headlined by Faber, Boldly, and Joel Eriksson Ek. The Wild also developed The Athletic’s second-best prospect pool without tanking. After missing the playoffs last season, Minnesota appears to be on track to qualify this year. 

Still, lingering issues indicate underlying problems within the organization. Minnesota told Wallstedt to get a place in the Twin Cities because he’d be part of a three-goalie rotation. Instead, they sent him down to Iowa because of cap issues, which affected his game earlier this season. Minnesota’s handling of Wallstedt this season appears to violate the five-year plan.

The Wild also have had a pattern of irregular prospect management. They overbaked Boldy and didn’t seem to have a plan with Rossi. They traded for David Jiricek in late November, and he played well in January. Still, we haven’t seen him since. A strong prospect pool is only helpful if the coaches and front office develop the players correctly.

Mr. Leipold also expressed his frustration with missing the playoffs. Still, Guerin retained Dean Evason after Craig Berube outcoached him with the St. Louis Blues, and Peter DeBoer beat him with the Vegas Golden Knights and the Dallas Stars. Guerin fired him after a 5-10-4 start last season. By the time John Hynes took over, last year’s team was too far gone to make the postseason. But perhaps they could have if Hynes had coached the team from the start.

The Wild also entered Year 1 with much of the core under contracts with no-move clauses. Signing Faber, Boldy, and Eriksson Ek at value makes sense. Extending Ryan Hartman, who’s had discipline issues, and peripheral players like Marcus Johansson, Freddy Gaudreau, and Jon Merrill doesn’t make much sense when they comprise a core that hasn’t won in the playoffs.

That was in Year 1, and the Wild seem focused on the present more than the future in Year 2. They sent a second-round pick to the Nashville Predators for 35-year-old Gustav Nyquist at the deadline. They also traded 23-year-old prospect Marat Khusnutdinov to the Boston Bruins for 27-year-old rookie Justin Brazeau, a larger player with less upside.

Locking in a core makes sense once a team has succeeded in the playoffs. Trading prospects to fill roster holes is common practice when teams are a player or two away from contending. However, that’s not the case with Minnesota. Still, with each passing day, it feels less like the Wild have a plan. Instead, they’ve empowered Guerin to do whatever he feels will make the team better at any given moment.

Hopefully, Kaprizov believes that’s a winning formula.