By Tom Schreier -
The Minnesota Wild had lost four straight games by a combined 21-5 score and fallen to 17-20-5 before Bill Guerin told everyone that he would not “wave the white flag” at the season’s midpoint. “I still believe in this group,” he said. “I know people are going to say I’m crazy, but I do. I think we’ve shown that when we are healthy and when we are doing what we’re supposed to be doing, we’re a good team.”
The Wild had lost eight of their past nine games. Guerin had already fired Dean Evason and mutually parted ways with his assistant GM and director of team operations. Minnesota has faced multiple injuries, including to Jared Spurgeon and Kirill Kaprizov. But the roster looked fundamentally flawed from the beginning.
Guerin had locked in his group by extending Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, and Mats Zuccarello in the offseason. He was trying to build a contender with $15 million in dead cap space, a punishment the league levied against him for buying Zach Parise and Ryan Suter out before the 2021-22 season. Guerin had Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota’s franchise player. He also had Filip Gustavsson in net, Matt Boldy as a complementary scorer, and star rookies Brock Faber and Marco Rossi. But the rest of the roster is either injured or lacks star power. Such is life in cap hell.
The Wild shouldn’t tank so long as they have Kaprizov under contract. However, they could have made Foligno, Hartman, and Zuccarello available as the trade deadline nears had Guerin not extended them. They could have prioritized roster space for youth rather than veteran experience. Instead, Guerin gave himself no option other than to go for it. What was he going to say in mid-January? Ope, sorry about all that. I thought we were gonna be better than we are, and I signed everyone to long-term deals with no-move clauses. Then things are a little chaotic around here. Talk to you when I have a cap guy in-house.
Then something weird happened. The Wild started winning. They beat the New York Islanders 5-0 hours after Guerin’s press conference and have won three of their past four games. The Tampa Bay Lightning beat them 7-3, but they beat the Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, and Washington Capitals by a combined 16-9 score.
“We needed that win. And almost to win in that fashion,” Zach Bogosian said after the Florida game. “Maybe not that close, but just a hard-fought game like that to give us a little bit of confidence — coming down to the wire and making sure we closed it out.”
Alrighty then. Nothing to see here. The Wild are fine.
Err, wait. What was that about the game being close? “This is where we need that poise and confidence,” Hynes said. “This is where you’ve got to go and do your job. It’s why we talk about details. This is an opportunity for us to push through.”
Oh yeah, that’s right. Mats Zuccarello’s eighth goal of the season put them up 4-1. But Eetu Luostarinen’s tally with less than two minutes to go in the second cut the lead to two. Kirill Kaprizov scored his 15th goal of the season on the power play 41 seconds into the third period. But Anton Lundell and Gustav Forsling scored within 15 seconds of each other to make it 5-4 halfway through the third period. Ryan Hartman’s empty-netter put the Panthers away for good, but that got a little close for comfort.
Carolina out-shot the Wild 42-19, but Minnesota scored two empty-net goals to win 5-2. Gustavsson bailed them out of that game. Two nights later, Marcus Johansson scored at 13:39 in the third period to put the Wild up 5-1. But Minnesota gave up two quick goals in the final 20 minutes for the second time in three games. T.J. Oshie scored on the power play with 2:57 left in the game, and Anthony Mantha potted one less than a minute and a half later.
It was too little, too late for the Capitals. But that’s a concerning trend. Perhaps all the Wild needed was a vote of confidence from almighty Bill. Or maybe they’re getting away with games they should lose. Regardless, Guerin is going to stay in win now mode. He has signed the core of his team to long-term extensions with no-move clauses. He’s pot-committed. There’s no reason for him to go into tank mode now.
However, we’ve seen what happens when a general manager overcommits to a flawed roster. Chuck Fletcher signed Parise and Suter to matching 13-year, $98 million deals and locked the Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, and Nino Niederreiter core into supposedly team-friendly deals. Paul Fenton wantonly traded away that group after the Wild fired Fletcher, and Guerin bought Parise and Suter out. GMs are often willing to spend to win and commit to the group they’ve created, knowing someone else will pick up the bill if it fails.
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