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  • Are the Wild Repeating History With Filip Gustavsson?


    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
    Luke Sims

    The Minnesota Wild have hovered around .500 since superstar Kirill Kaprizov went out with injury. In March, Filip Gustavsson was the man they had to thank for that. 

    Gustavsson led the Wild to a 6-3-1 record in March, with an NHL-best .940 SV% over that stretch. Gustavsson recently won the NHL’s First Star of the Week, where he led the Wild to three wins and had a stellar .67 GAA with a .976 SV%, including a shutout.

    John Hynes has ridden Gustavsson during his hot streak. The only two games Marc-Andre Fleury played were two losses against his former teams, the Vegas Golden Knights and Pittsburgh Penguins, in which he surrendered six goals.

    The Wild must stay in the first Wild card spot to avoid inevitable defeat to the Winnipeg Jets in the first round. St. Louis Blues are also hotter than the sun’s surface, having won ten in a row and now nipping at Minnesota's heels in the wild-card race.

    As of this writing, the Wild and Blues have identical records and remain in the wild card race. Minnesota and St. Louis have 89 points through 76 games played, have a 41-28-7 record, and are riding hot goaltenders. However, goal differential is the big difference between the two squads. The Blues are at a positive 18, while the Wild are 29 goals behind them at -11.

    The Wild can’t afford to give Gustavsson a game off.

    With a back-to-back coming up against the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks, Marc-Andre Fleury will likely only get one more start before Minnesota’s regular season ends.

    The future Hall of Famer hasn’t been sharp lately and made more headlines in a game where he didn’t play. After the conclusion of the recent victory against the Washington Capitals, longtime frenemy Alexander Ovechkin brought his team back onto the ice to shake hands with Fleury for what would be the last time the future all-time NHL goal leader gets to face him.

    Gustavsson will likely start the other five games remaining on the Wild’s schedule, bringing his season total of starts to 58. That’s 13 more than he’s ever started in a single season.

    Since March 1, the Wild have been the ninth-worst team in shots allowed, with 28.05 points per game. That has forced Gus to stand on his head a bit more and help Minnesota’s lackluster defense.

    The Wild have a 2.12 GF/60, 31st in the NHL. The Wild are not giving their goaltender any goal support or sustained time in the offensive zone.

    They have no choice but to lean on Gus while his elite play continues.

    However, Minnesota’s history regarding running goaltenders into the ground isn’t kind. Devan Dubnyk started at least 60 games in four seasons during the late 2010s. With the Wild needing him to steal games for them, they had no other choice on who to play. With all his mileage, Dubnyk often struggled to maintain his elite regular-season form in the playoffs. 

    Dubnyk never played in a second-round series for Minnesota.

    Gustavsson has had his fair share of ups and downs in a Wild uniform. His first season in Minnesota was fantastic, but he looked much more human in his second when his save percentage dropped below .900. However, Gus has played his best this season.

    We’ve seen Gustavsson stand on his head in the playoffs. The double-overtime game against the Dallas Stars two years ago was one of the best games I’ve seen from a backstopper ever. The problem was the Wild planned to use Fleury in the next game, and Dallas scored seven goals on him.

    With more experience and games under his belt, the Wild have put more weight on Gus’s shoulder and expect him to carry this team while Kaprizov remains on the sidelines. Minnesota is playing poor defense and not scoring, yet they’ve stayed in the race.

    The Wild have no choice but to ride the Filip Gustavsson roller coaster. Right now, that ride is going up. Now, the Wild will hold their breath until the fall.

    All stats and data via Evolving Hockey, HockeyDB, CapWages, MoneyPuck, and Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.

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    I'm betting / hoping Fleury gets the final game of the season, at home against ANA.  A nice final send-off, and give Gus a break before starting the playoffs. 

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    MN doesn't really have the most durable back end recently. Not one healthy guy really. 

    The Wild in general have been injured but Brodin, Spurge, and guys MN has counted on or felt were elite players aren't getting the job done if they're not even playing. The Wild appear to have suffered another derailed season due to injuries and inability to fix old problems like special teams and draws. 

    Those two things have both been evident in recent losses. 

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    I did some maths, and I "think" I have the number crunching figured out.

    Current Wild points: 89 (6 games remaining)
    Current Flames points: 84 (7 games remaining)
    Current Canucks points: 81 (7 games remaining)
    Current UHC points: 80 points (6 games remaining)

    Mostly going with Wild and Flames here, but here's some maths.  This doesn't include loser points for ease.

    Wild go 0-6, 89 points, Flames need 3-4 to get to 90 points, Canucks need 5-2 to get to 91 points, UHC need 5-1 to get to 90 points

    Wild go 1-5, 91 points, Flames need 4-3 to get to 92 points, Canucks need 6-1 to get to 93 points, UHC needs 6-0 to get to 92 points

    Wild go 2-4, 93 points, Flames need 5-2 to get to 94 points, Canucks need 7-0 to get to 95 points, Utah Eliminated Regardless

    Wild go 3-3, 95 points, Flames need 6-1 to get to 96 points, Canucks and UHC Eliminated Regardless

    Wild go 4-2, 97 points, Flames need 7-0 to get to 98 points

    Wild go 5-1, 98 points, Clinch Regardless of other teams
     

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    You lost me at Dubnyk and elite goaltending.  He was near the bottom of the NHL in adjusted save percentage.  Not bottom amongst starters.  Bottom amongst ALL goalies. The Wild were an ELITE defensive team with terrible goaltending those years. The reason he never played in the 2nd round is because he sucked.

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    20 minutes ago, Patrick said:

    The reason he never played in the 2nd round is because he sucked.

    That seems a little strong. He wasn't elite perhaps, but he was on the positive side of goals saved above average for 5 straight seasons with the Wild, and he had a .936 save percentage in 39 regular season starts the year they brought him over via trade.

    Dubnyk did advance to play in the 2nd round that year by allowing the Blues to score just 4 total goals in the 4 wins he recorded in the 2015 playoffs. 

    The reason the Wild failed to advance in the playoffs frequently was probably tied to very mediocre coaching, if we're being charitable. The coaching was likely far below average for playoff teams. Chicago, who knocked them out of the 2015 playoffs, was also a phenomenal team back then, winning the Stanley cup in 2015. It was tough for the Wild to keep up with their talent.

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    2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    I did some maths, and I "think" I have the number crunching figured out.

    Current Wild points: 89 (6 games remaining)
    Current Flames points: 84 (7 games remaining)
    Current Canucks points: 81 (7 games remaining)
    Current UHC points: 80 points (6 games remaining)

    Mostly going with Wild and Flames here, but here's some maths.  This doesn't include loser points for ease.

    Wild go 0-6, 89 points, Flames need 3-4 to get to 90 points, Canucks need 5-2 to get to 91 points, UHC need 5-1 to get to 90 points

    Wild go 1-5, 91 points, Flames need 4-3 to get to 92 points, Canucks need 6-1 to get to 93 points, UHC needs 6-0 to get to 92 points

    Wild go 2-4, 93 points, Flames need 5-2 to get to 94 points, Canucks need 7-0 to get to 95 points, Utah Eliminated Regardless

    Wild go 3-3, 95 points, Flames need 6-1 to get to 96 points, Canucks and UHC Eliminated Regardless

    Wild go 4-2, 97 points, Flames need 7-0 to get to 98 points

    Wild go 5-1, 98 points, Clinch Regardless of other teams
     

    So basically the Wild need to win half of these remaining six games to really apply the pressure to the Flames to be damn near perfect. I think this will be pretty easy with our offense coming back.

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    20 hours ago, Sam said:

    So basically the Wild need to win half of these remaining six games to really apply the pressure to the Flames to be damn near perfect. I think this will be pretty easy with our offense coming back.

    I still think 90 is the magic number, I don't think the Flames get more than that. But, I can see them in our rear view mirror.

    Goose needs a break, he is worn down just like Dubnyk got. I think we need to sacrifice a game and let the goalie have some rest. MAF should have gotten one of the NY games. If there is no confidence in MAF, we've got the LTIR money to bring up The Wall and give him a shot at some relief. However, as I look down at his stats, he looks like he hasn't played in awhile so he might be hurt, couldn't find anything on an injury, but that doesn't surprise me.

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    22 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    That seems a little strong. He wasn't elite perhaps, but he was on the positive side of goals saved above average for 5 straight seasons with the Wild, and he had a .936 save percentage in 39 regular season starts the year they brought him over via trade.

    Sorry but you are completely wrong. Per MoneyPuck, Dubnyks only full year where he was positive was 15-16 where he managed a modest 0.2 goals saved above expected.

    in 17-18 he was ranked 76 out of 95 qualifying goalies

    in 18-19 he was ranked 87 out of 93 qualifying goalies

    in 19-20 he was ranked 84 out of 85 qualifying goalies.

    He was the WORST starting goalie in the NHL for 3 consecutive seasons and was badly outplayed by Stalock in those years.  And his post season stats were considerably worse.  

    His adjusted save percentage was equally bad if not worse. 

    The best argument you make is the terrible MN coaching that kept putting an objectively terrible goalie in the nets night after night.  But he was part of the Suter/Parise good ol' boys club so maybe it wasn't a coaches decision.... 

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    Duby was also very up and down with a proclivity for giving up a super-soft one. His good game could be followed by a 5-7 goal beat down. 

    That was part of another strange era when the Wild had good regular seasons despite glaring problems that were greatly illuminated when the playoffs arrived and results proved it. 

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I still think 90 is the magic number, I don't think the Flames get more than that. But, I can see them in our rear view mirror.

    Goose needs a break, he is worn down just like Dubnyk got. I think we need to sacrifice a game and let the goalie have some rest. MAF should have gotten one of the NY games. If there is no confidence in MAF, we've got the LTIR money to bring up The Wall and give him a shot at some relief. However, as I look down at his stats, he looks like he hasn't played in awhile so he might be hurt, couldn't find anything on an injury, but that doesn't surprise me.

    Flower will get one of the next two games for sure. I expect the Anaheim game as well assuming the Wild don't need a win to get in the playoffs.

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