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  • Are the Wild Holding Onto False Hope Out Of the Break?


    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports
    Tom Schreier

    The Minnesota Wild had ten days off between their final game before the All-Star Break and their 2-1 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on February 7. The Wild had won four of five games before their January 25 game against the Nashville Predators. They had an opportunity to vault onto the right side of the playoff bubble with a win over Nashville but lost 3-2. A January 27 game against the Anaheim Ducks was their last opportunity to go into the break with some momentum.

    “This looks like a mismatch,” wrote the Star Tribune’s Sarah McLellan. “The Wild have a 13-point lead over the Ducks in the standings, and Anaheim has won just three times in its past 10 contests. But the Ducks can be pesky.” And the Ducks were. The Wild squandered a third-period lead for the second straight game and entered the break 21-23-5, six points out of the Western Conference’s second wild-card seed.

    “We all knew how big those points were before the break and how disappointing it was to miss them,” Marc-Andre Fleury said after Minnesota’s first practice after the break. “We all want to win. We all want to make the playoffs.”

    “We still have some runway to kind of control our own destiny,” echoed Jacob Middleton.

    The Wild have taken their first steps, beating Chicago on the road before Marc-Andre Fleury got the best of the Pittsburgh Penguins in St. Paul. Ten years ago, wins over the Blackhawks and Penguins would be the sign of a turnaround. But Chicago and the San Jose Sharks are the worst teams in the Western Conference, and Pittsburgh is a mediocre Eastern Conference team. Minnesota is still in the Central Division’s middle class entering Monday night’s game in Las Vegas.

    Chicago and the Penguins became champions by bottoming out and loading up on talent. The Blackhawks took Jonathan Towes third overall in 2006 and Patrick Kane 1-1 a year later. Together, they won three Stanley Cups. Chicago tanked last year, allowing them to take Connor Bedard first overall in last year’s draft. Pittsburgh took Fleury first overall in 2003, Evgeni Malkin second in 2004, and Sidney Crosby first in 2005. They have won three Cups in the Crosby era.

    However, fans in Chicago and Pittsburgh suffered through painful lows before their teams became winners. Former Blackhawks owner Bill Wirtz blacked out games locally, believing that he was doing season-ticket holders a service and boosting attendance. Between the blackout policy and frugal ownership, the Hawks struggled on-ice and became an afterthought in America’s third-largest TV market. The Blackhawks’ fortunes only changed once his son, Rocky, took over. 

    Similarly, the Penguins won championships in 1991 and 1993 but fell on hard times after that. However, unlike in Chicago, Pittsburgh’s owners had spent money freely during the championship years and filed for bankruptcy in 1998. Former player Mario Lemieux stepped into an ownership role and kept the team from relocating. In 2007, he helped broker a stadium deal that helped cement the Penguins in Western Pennsylvania for the foreseeable future. 

    Things should never get that desperate for the Wild. Minnesota had already lost its hockey team when Norm Green relocated the North Stars to Dallas in April 1993, two years after they lost to the Penguins in the Stanley Cup finals. The Wild also shouldn’t full-on tank with Kirill Kaprizov on the roster. However, Bill Guerin has pushed them to all-in with nearly $15 million in dead cap space and a flawed roster. By committing long-term to Marcus Foligno, Mats Zuccarello, and Ryan Hartman, he’s unable to trade them at the deadline to reload for next year.

    Guerin had an opportunity for a hard reset this season. After starting 5-10-4, he could have fired Dean Evason and tried to get a top pick. Evason had led the team to back-to-back 100-point seasons, but Peter DeBoer and Craig Berube had out-coached him in the playoffs. But Guerin kept pushing for the team to win, signing John Hynes to a multi-year deal instead of going with an interim coach. 

    The Wild won their first four games under Hynes, then had a four-game winning streak in late December. But they lost eight of their next nine games, which was a turning point in a borderline lost season. “I still believe in this group,” Guerin said after that losing streak. “I know people are going to say I’m crazy, but I do. I think we’ve shown that when we are healthy and when we are doing what we’re supposed to be doing, we’re a good team.”

    Minnesota won four of its next five after that before losing to Nashville and Anaheim going into the break. They beat Chicago and Pittsburgh but play nine of their next 13 games on the road. The Wild’s immediate surge after Guerin fired Evason may have fooled some people, and there’s no shame in it. And their second and third winning streaks may have led to buy-in again. But to believe that this team will miraculously change after ten days off feels far-fetched. At this point, it feels like they’re holding onto false hope instead of gearing up for the future.

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    Even when they're good they find ways to be bad and when they're bad they do just enough to be good.

    Some Central teams have done well this year like WPG, STL, and NSH by comparison to their pre-season hopes. MN, not so much. I like that CHI got screwed on Hall, Perry, and Bedard to some degree but the Wild look terrible against the Central, especially Dallas. Just tank and get the pick. We know how this ends. Any hope generated by making the playoffs is likely destroyed in a series with Dallas who has a proven playoff coach. 

     

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    What is more unrealistic... playoffs or the #1 pick?

    It's funny how we have media out there under the nose of the organization out there pretending we can make a playoff push and at the same time a independent media out there being hyper critical and holding onto false hope that we are going to win the lottery.

    Just with about everything in this world these days, the real state of things lies somewhere perched like a balanced rock in-between the fanatical extremes.  

    We are too good to tank and not good enough to contend.  We are too old and too young at the same time.  Banged up and discombobulated.  Consistently inconsistent.

    No need to tank for peanuts and no need to compromise the future for peanuts, but rather to open up all opportunity for the young guys to improve regardless of outcome.  

    If Fleury or anyone wants to chase a cup, let them.  If any Russians want to come over and get some ice time in the NHL, let them.  If any of our young defensive prospects are even close to ready, play them.

    I think it is going to happen and I'm looking forward to seeing some of these young guys be given the green light.

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    The bets are in and the Wild are going to call with the cards in hand. It’s already way too late to fold and that means next year too. As a fan I’ve finally accepted that’s just the way it’s going to be. Can it get worse? Sure, win a couple more games and add pieces for picks at the TD. I don’t mind that management keeps saying that they believe in this team. Fine. Then go out and prove it and make a believer out of me too. 

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    34 minutes ago, Burnt Toast said:

    As a fan I’ve finally accepted that’s just the way it’s going to be. Can it get worse? Sure, win a couple more games and add pieces for picks at the TD.

    The Athletic suggested that there's no chance Guerin does a big deal to push for the playoffs this season.

    The 2 losses before the break significantly reduced the chances for the Wild making the playoffs. St. Louis has been quite good in their last 10 games, mostly against inferior competition, and may somewhat lock up one of those bottom playoff spots by the end of February, but I know the Wild will push for wins until they are facing elimination, then the kids will get more play.

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    I will keep rooting for the team to win.  However, if they lose a bunch, I will nighter be sad, not disappointed.  The team needs to get to the off-season sooner rather than later, with a better chance at a top defenseman or winger to boot.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    It is not exactly for this article, but I think it is interesting info. per Russian sport news Danila Yurov will sign contract with Metalurg at least for one more year . This should happened in week or so. 

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    It’s going to be extremely frustrating going into the trade deadline watching the returns other teams get . It’s been such a frustrating season an it didn’t have to be that way. We could have let this team try to stay competitive till trade deadline then moved 3 good players at the deadline for what we need. More kicks at the can in draft. If the prices are 1st s for a third line center. We probably would have done well with our 3.  Then we could finally move on to the youth movement. It’s hard to find anything optimistic about next season if it’s the same vets and ahlers . Maybe the one Russian makes it over but it’s not going to move needle much.  This slow walking a so called competitive rebuild when your not and never have been competitive is ridiculous. Getting bounced in first round isn’t competitive.  Your last of 16 teams. 
         What’s done is done with the extensions . However it’s hard to see any optimism for next few years. We’re just developing 12-20th overalls. Not the high end picks we need . It seems like we drafted a few nice pieces but we have scoring wingers. Hopefully walls is a beast in net but we have many holes to fill. I don’t see how this competive rebuild works. It just prolongs the mediocre we’re all used to. 
        I am curious what he does at deadline and what roster spots he opens for youth. Youth is the ONLY reason to watch . I’ve seen this  roster for years do nothing. Time to turn page . 

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    The Wild need to do what they can to secure a top 6 pick.  There are to many holes on this team. They still need 2 more large skilled defenseman.  They need 3-4 more top 9 forwards.  This team will be good when Hartman, Foligno and Freddy G are our 4th line and nothing more than that.  Rossi is a 3rd line center or wing nothing more. Erickson Ek is a 2nd line center.  Still need a first line center and more high skilled wings on the 2nd and 3rd lines.  For all this Faber contract talk he is not worth 8 million a year.  For now do a 3-4 year deal at 4-5 mil per year.  He still needs to get stronger as gets pushed around in corners by larger teams.  Rossi should be a 2-3 year deal at 2 mil per.  Spurgeon should be traded when healthy if a team will take his salary and use that to get a couple larger defenseman.  Trade off all you can at the deadline and gets picks.  Team is 2-3 years away. 

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    Every Monday game concluded with a result in favor of the Wild's playoff chances. Remaining games against St. Louis, Nashville, and LA Kings could all be meaningful, particularly if the Wild were to sweep a couple of those teams.

    False hope or not, the Wild will not go gentle into that good night...

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    8 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Every Monday game concluded with a result in favor of the Wild's playoff chances. Remaining games against St. Louis, Nashville, and LA Kings could all be meaningful, particularly if the Wild were to sweep a couple of those teams.

    False hope or not, the Wild will not go gentle into that good night...

    Yes, everything went the Wild's way last night.  And in the bigger picture, they've moved from 13th to 11th in the conference...

    ...but, they're also still the same 5 points behind #8 STL that they were last Thursday, with two fewer games to make up the gap. 

    There will have to be a lot of "everything goes right" nights in the future, because you know there will be "everything went wrong" nights as well.

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    16 minutes ago, bisopher said:

    ...but, they're also still the same 5 points behind #8 STL that they were last Thursday, with two fewer games to make up the gap. 

    Yes, with 3 games remaining against St. Louis. March 2nd, March 16th, and March 23rd. If the Wild don't go at least 2-0-1 against the Blues, the odds will not be in their favor, but the Wild do have one of the 3 easiest remaining schedules, so they may surprise.

    If things keep going the same as they had previously, the Wild miss, but things change a lot in sports. LA Kings looked like a sure playoff team around Christmas, but have won just 4 of their last 18 games.

    I pretty much gave up on the Wild after the consecutive come from ahead losses to Nashville and Anaheim. I'm not really rooting for them to make the playoffs, just relaying what I imagine the coaches and players are looking at. Have to give them credit for fighting when fans now mostly seem fine with losing.

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    Roller coaster of a team.  They lose to the Ducks with a lame duck performance and then put together a game like last night.  

    I guess it's to be expected.  Boldy is still figuring things out as is Rossi and Faber too but it's nice when it comes together.  

    Expectations are not changed for me but string together a 5 game winning streak and then we will talk.

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    17 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    I will keep rooting for the team to win.  However, if they lose a bunch, I will nighter be sad, not disappointed.  The team needs to get to the off-season sooner rather than later, with a better chance at a top defenseman or winger to boot.

    I am rooting for them to win. I just wish the yungins were being used and given a chance to learn/succeed. 6 minutes on the 4th line for a forward or 8 for a d-man on the 3rd pairing doesn't trip my trigger.

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    16 hours ago, Dean said:

    This slow walking a so called competitive rebuild when your not and never have been competitive is ridiculous. Getting bounced in first round isn’t competitive.  Your last of 16 teams. 

    Dean, this is precisely the meaning of competitive. When Guerin first used that word, it confused me a little until I figured it out. Competitive is the code word for being playoff relevant with 10 games to play. Not just mathematically alive, but to be in the full mix. Competitive is not getting blown out in games often (every team has a few stinkers each year). Competitive essentially means getting an invitation to the dance, even though you're leaving by 10pm. 

    What I think you're mixing up is that competitive and contender are 2 very different words. You're hoping for a contender in these lean years. That wasn't going to happen unless the team was extremely hot. On paper, there was no way this would happen. 

    So, the drafting would be done in the late teens and early 20s. These guys normally do not come up early, and 5 years is the developmental period for these guys. Are we on time?

    2020 draft guys should come in during 2024-25. Rossi is still slightly ahead of that but we all expected him sooner being a top 10 pick. Dino and Hunt are right on time. We didn't draft him, but I'd include Faber in this section and he is ahead of schedule.

    2021 draft guys (The Wall, Lambos) should come in 2025-26. Currently, they appear to be a little early, as we might see both next year. Peart looks like he may have taken a step back this season and he needs strength/weight. Bankier looks like he'll take the full time to develop. Masters the same thing.

    2022 draft guys (Ohgren and Yurov) should be coming in 2026-27. To me, these guys look to be ahead of schedule. This may be our best draft as it also includes Haight, Lorenz, Milne, Spacek and Petrovsky. But, they will need the time to develop. Spacek could make it a year early as he was an overage pick. 

    2023 draft guys (Stramel, Kumpulainen, Heidt) should be arriving around 2027-28. To me, Heidt is the only one who looks like he might make it early, but Stramel probably won't make the team due to his scoring. It's his size and strength that will have him make it.

    This is what a competitive rebuild looks like. The slow-walking people are criticizing is necessary for development as we didn't get to pick the top guys who could develop faster. The hope is that Judd was able to find some later round picks while not missing on the premium rounds. Each year where this team overperformed and made the playoffs bought more time for the kids to develop before coming up too soon. 

    But, you're right, the interest lies with the kids. Using the last 20 games of this season to see where they're at could be extremely useful. But, if we're close entering March, I believe Guerin is going to stand pat, promote from within, and try to make the playoffs with a soft March schedule. 

    It wouldn't surprise me to see as many youngsters eligible for the Baby Wild playoff run as possible. Currently, they sit in 6th in the central, but they are 4 points out of 4th. If the Big Wild roster gets healthy, and the reinforcements come back down to Iowa, I could see them making a push too. Lucchini, Letteiri were productive in the minors. I'd still like to see Beckman, Dino, Hunt qualify to be on a playoff roster for Iowa, but play games up with the Big Wild to finish out the season. Should Iowa make the playoffs, that might be good preparation for some of the kids to compete! I believe A playoffs do help develop the kids.

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    12 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Does anyone know why Chisholm did not make his debut last night?

    About a week ago, Rotowire reported, "Chisholm hasn't practiced for two weeks, so the Wild want to get him some more practice time before giving him a crack at the lineup. In fact, the blueliner has appeared in just two NHL games this season, averaging just 11:33 of ice time, so he is far from a lock to play even once up to full speed."

    Once he gets a handful of practices in, I suspect he'll get a game here or there, but they may wait until Hynes gets frustrated with someone else and/or the Wild lose a game. Sounds like he had gotten his Visa issues resolved though.

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    11 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    About a week ago, Rotowire reported, "Chisholm hasn't practiced for two weeks, so the Wild want to get him some more practice time before giving him a crack at the lineup. In fact, the blueliner has appeared in just two NHL games this season, averaging just 11:33 of ice time, so he is far from a lock to play even once up to full speed."

    Once he gets a handful of practices in, I suspect he'll get a game here or there, but they may wait until Hynes gets frustrated with someone else and/or the Wild lose a game. Sounds like he had gotten his Visa issues resolved though.

    Chisholm was quoted as saying it was so long since he was on the ice that just practicing and getting bagged was tough. He hadn't gotten his legs or his wind back when that was printed.

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    Meanwhile Chicago is tanking multiple years as they stockpile high end talent like Bedard that is ready to step on the ice almost instantly and giving them loads of ice time.  Our pool may be better now but unlikely to stand up to the picks they get in the next 2 years.  Our Russian connection will need to perform well.

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    Big night of games. If Seattle, STL, LA, NSH, and Calgary can all lose, the Wild would be getting some needed help. It relies on SJS winning so don't count on that but the rest of those sad losses for playoff hopefuls would be great!

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