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  • Are Lauko and Trenin An Upgrade From the Deweys?


    Image courtesy of Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports
    Luke Sims

    The Minnesota Wild reshuffled their bottom six in the offseason. They said goodbye to fan favorites Connor Dewar and Brandon Duhaime at the trade deadline. To replace them, they traded for Jakub Lauko and signed Yakov Trenin from the Colorado Avalanche. 

    Trenin and Lauko project to play in the Wild’s bottom six. While it is still unclear how head coach John Hynes will deploy them, they will replace the Deweys. 

    While Duhaime and Dewar were easy to cheer for with their infectious off-ice personalities and gritty brand of hockey, is the Wild’s new foreign duo an improvement? 

    From a production standpoint, Trenin is the only clear upgrade. Duhaime and Dewar have not eclipsed 19 points in their careers with the Wild. Trenin’s career-high is not much better: 24 points in 77 games with the Nashville Predators in 2022-23. 

    However, Dewar is seen as more of a defensive specialist than an offensive play driver. 

    Lauko is essentially a bigger version of Dewar. While Dewar is more of a center and Lauko is a winger, they were effective in their roles. Lauko and Dewar played almost exclusively fourth-line roles. Dewar produced a bit more but played in 17 more games than Lauko. The former Boston Bruins forward scored only two goals in 60 games, but he brought a bigger physical pressure than Dewar. Lauko could still improve; he has played less than 100 games in the NHL. 

    Trenin is an upgrade over Duhaime in almost every way besides personality. Trenin is a little bigger, plays a more physical brand of hockey, and produces at a higher rate than Duhaime. 

    Trenin is also a little more disciplined than Duhaime. He is a similar player to Foligno and will probably play a lot with him. The analytics models are much nicer to Trenin than they are to Duhaime. 

    Trenin is also a better penalty-killer than Duhaime. Trenin is known for being a shutdown penalty killer. While Duhaime played okay with a man down in Minnesota, the Wild had one of the worst penalty-killing units in the league last season. However, they have a new coach and penalty-killing specialist this year. 

    The new duo is a bit more expensive. Duhaime and Dewar had a combined $3.03 million cap hit. The Toronto Maple Leafs gave Dewar a one-year, $1.18 million deal, and the Washington Capitals signed Duhaime for two years, $3.7 million.

    Lauko and Trenin’s combined cap hit is $4.287 million. However, Trenin accounts for $3.5 million, and Lauko is on a $787,000 deal. The Wild have locked Trenin in for the next four years, after which he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. Lauko is only on a one-year deal, but Minnesota will hold his rights as a restricted free agent. 

    The biggest reason for the move may be their intangibles. Lauko and Trenin are big-bodied wingers who like to throw hits. They are part of Bill Guerin’s plan for the Wild to become a tougher team to play against. Trenin echoed this message when talking about playing against the Wild. 

    “When I played against them early in the season — when Marcus was healthy (and) Duhaime and Maroon (were there) — it was like a way different game compared to the last games in the season,” Trenin said. “It particularly got a little bit softer, and that’s why I can help with that.”

    The Wild lost Maroon to the Chicago Blackhawks, but Foligno is back to full health and is a crucial cog in the Wild's desire to re-cultivate that identity. 

    “When you think particularly at our team, our nine to 12 forwards, we felt we had to have more of an identity: more speed, bigger, stronger, faster, guys that can play with an edge, guys that can tilt the ice, guys that bring energy to your team with the way that they play,” Hynes said. “That’s certainly something that he brings.”

    While Duhaime brought that element, the Wild got great value out of him at the trade deadline, shipping him off to Colorado for a third-round selection. Dewar also provided solid value in a trade, netting a fourth-round pick, especially if the Wild were going to move on from him anyway. 

    The Wild moved on from two fan favorites to restore a hard-nosed identity, become a bigger team, and help fix the penalty kill. They wanted to become a tougher team to play against, and trading for Lauko and signing Trenin moved the team in the right direction. While Trenin costs more than Duhaime or Dewar, the Wild are only spending $1.257 million more on the Lauko-Trenin duo than the Duhaime-Dewar duo. 

    The Wild are tired of being an easy team to play against. Trenin and Lauko will bring an edge in toughness and size to Minnesota’s bottom six, an upgrade over Duhaime and Dewar. While the Dewwys were fun personalities off the ice, this will be a worthwhile cost for what the Wild hope to accomplish moving forward. 

    All stats and data via HockeyDB, CagWages.com, and Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.

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    Sentiment is nice, but results matter.  If the PK goes from 30th to 15-20th, it will be seen as a no-brainer move.  There's more at play than just Deweys v. Trenin/Lauko...but wins are wins.  If the PK can't be trusted, the team cannot win.

    If PK stays where is, well fuck.

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    Finally a decent conclusion:

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    While the Dewwys were fun personalities off the ice, this will be a worthwhile cost for what the Wild hope to accomplish moving forward. 

    CS has a great take, if our PK can move to average, just that alone probably gets us into the playoffs again. If our team can stay healthy we probably snag a #3 seed in the Central. That is the difference in last season, those 2 things. 

    I really liked the Dewwys, but on the PK, it was Dewy2 + Mason Shaw that made the difference. Shaw's ACL made it so he couldn't effectively kill penalties last season. He and Dewar were a really good combo, especially offensively. I thought Duhaime brought extra speed. The comment that nobody scored on Trenin's passes is funny, but we had that same thing in Duhaime. I do think Trenin will be an upgrade. 

    Hockey is still about 2 months out. 

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    Around the league, Laine trade seems to be rumored. Here were people talking about Pittsburgh:

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    Maybe Dubas dangles a second-round pick and/or a second-tier prospect. The reality is Columbus might have to take what it can.

    A 2nd and a 2nd tier prospect? I don't think Pittsburgh has a lot of cap room, but look at this. How about we raise you with a 2nd, 2nd tier prospect, a Johansson and Gaudreau and you retain 50%. For ODC and Dean, that would be helping Kappy now. 

    It would also potentially be helping Rossi, and Zuccarello too. That is the sniper wing they're missing. It would help the PP because PKs would have to respect the backside of our PP. 

    And then came this headline:

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    Is it Now or Never for the Ottawa Senators and their Core?

    Perhaps I was a year too early in going after B. Tkachuk. Next season, we will have cap space to gain Tkachuk. I really think this team would be cooking with a player like that! If Ottawa isn't in it at the TDL, perhaps the frustration of this player will boil over and he'll be dealt. Why not here?

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    Lauko is essentially a bigger version of Dewar. 

    Trenin is an upgrade over Duhaime in almost every way besides personality. Trenin is a little bigger, plays a more physical brand of hockey, and produces at a higher rate than Duhaime.

    Yes.

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    I think it's an upgrade. Toughness might be close but I think the intangibles and timing is better. 

    Deweys had time to establish themselves. They did to some degree. Trenin and Lauko have a little more size, similar roles, and a little better scoring. The kicks at the can element and balance effort from management is a good thing. 

    Now get rid of NoJo...

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    On 8/3/2024 at 10:10 AM, mnfaninnc said:

    Perhaps I was a year too early in going after B. Tkachuk. Next season, we will have cap space to gain Tkachuk. I really think this team would be cooking with a player like that! If Ottawa isn't in it at the TDL, perhaps the frustration of this player will boil over and he'll be dealt. Why not here?

    Can someone explain the infatuation with getting Brady on the team? The only way it would happen is to give up either an important piece of the current team, or good prospects and draft picks.

    But, say we get brady with our current team somehow, he has a cap hit of $8m. That would reduce our current cap space to $7m with needing to re-sign Rossi, Dino, lauko, chisholm, and Wall. And don't forget your Entry level contracts that are roughly $1m for Buium, Yurov, Heidt, etc. All of those contracts will probably cost roughly $1m against the cap except for Rossi, and depending on how his season goes, the wild will be lucky if his Cap starts with a 6.

    All that to say, the wild don't have the cap space for Brady without trading someone.

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    19 hours ago, Kato AK said:

    Can someone explain the infatuation with getting Brady on the team?

    This is almost exclusively MNFAN's infatuation.  Enjoy the break from MNFAN telling each player to get thicker.

    #mnfanhottake

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    19 hours ago, Kato AK said:

    Can someone explain the infatuation with getting Brady on the team? The only way it would happen is to give up either an important piece of the current team, or good prospects and draft picks.

    But, say we get brady with our current team somehow, he has a cap hit of $8m. That would reduce our current cap space to $7m with needing to re-sign Rossi, Dino, lauko, chisholm, and Wall. And don't forget your Entry level contracts that are roughly $1m for Buium, Yurov, Heidt, etc. All of those contracts will probably cost roughly $1m against the cap except for Rossi, and depending on how his season goes, the wild will be lucky if his Cap starts with a 6.

    All that to say, the wild don't have the cap space for Brady without trading someone.

    The Tkachuks have a long history of being gamers, really hard to play against, and immensely talented players. If you've never had one of these guys on your team, you wouldn't know the full impact a guy like this can have. While he put up 70 points, most of his benefit comes in the intangibles area. 

    One only needs to look at the Florida Panthers where brother Matthew has been for the past couple of seasons. When he was in Calgary, Calgary played a tough brand of hockey. We all know how he pretty much ended Dumba's usefulness as a defender, but aside from the rough and tumble, he brought an attitude, swagger, and backed it up in all aspects of the game. As soon as Calgary lost Tkachuk, their play went dramatically south, even though they got a couple of real nice pieces back. From the beginning of last season, Florida looked like an underachieving team, but in reality they were simply getting used to the new player. They got hot at the end of the year and as the 8 seed they pulled a Kings and went to the SCF. Tkachuk was the main cog here, even though they have plenty of other talent. Then this season, they put it all together with a nice regular season and a ring. 

    Brady is cut from the same cloth. He makes everyone better around him. He absolutely hates to lose. He's got plenty of offensive talent and is very physical. He is like a Boldy and Foligno wrapped up into one player. He is willing to do a lot of dirty work and he gets things done. He is exactly what this team needs and I was willing to give up a king's ransom for the player. They are tough negotiating contracts, but the types of players that do not leave anything left in the tank after games. A player like this is one the whole team can rally around, and he'd take a lot of pressure off of Kaprizov. If you really want to go on a long run, inserting a Tkachuk in the lineup will certainly help you get there. 

    Matthew stated he wasn't resigning in Calgary longterm. Calgary had to move him so as to not lose him for nothing (like Gaborik). If Brady also becomes available, this is a guy to pounce on and there will be a line to get him. Yes, this is where you will need to move some pieces, important pieces. If it were today, Ottawa has a bottom level prospect pool and you'd probably need to give up Rossi + Boldy. IMO, it would be worth it to do it. The passion that a Tkachuk plays with is elite and infectious. Everyone plays with more intensity. I do think we have the pieces to obtain the player without giving up Kaprizov or Ek, or Faber. It would help if we moved out the same cap or more. 

    From Ottawa's viewpoint, they would try to make this a win-win and will definitely try to profit off the Tkachuk mystique. If I were them, moving him to the Western Conference would be my preference so I didn't have to face him more than twice a year. That leaves 16 teams competing for the player. If we're coming out of cap hell, we have the ability to absorb the contract. 

    One more thing, just moving Rossi and Boldy would not be enough for Guerin. This would be a very busy season for Guerin as he'd likely have to move more pieces to get the team right. I would assume these players would be moved for futures as our current futures move in. We might even be in line to sign an important UFA. But, from my perspective, B. Tkachuk is a guy you get to plan on a few seasons of Stanley Cup runs. 

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    15 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    This is almost exclusively MNFAN's infatuation.  Enjoy the break from MNFAN telling each player to get thicker.

    #mnfanhottake

    And, Brady's thick enough!!!!!!!!!!!!

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