After Proving They Belong, the Wild Must Prove They Can Contend

Not even the most optimistic fan could draw up the Minnesota Wild's start this season. At 11-2-3, the Wild have done what last year’s team couldn’t, banking wins and putting themselves in playoff position ahead of Thanksgiving.

But while the Wild have proven they belong in the playoff picture, they still need to prove they can make noise once they get there, which makes this upcoming stretch of games, beginning with Saturday’s showdown with the Dallas Stars, extremely important.

The Wild have done well for themselves in the early stages of the year. One year ago, Minnesota effectively buried itself with a 5-10-4 start which cost Dean Evason his job and put them out of playoff position by Thanksgiving.

Over 75 percent of teams that are in a playoff position during the U.S. holiday go on to make the playoffs the following spring. The Edmonton Oilers made the playoffs despite a slow start, but the Wild were not as fortunate.

The early portion of the NHL calendar usually represents plenty of games against Eastern Conference competition. We shouldn't dismiss those teams, and the Wild have acquitted themselves well by beating the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and the Tampa Bay Lightning twice. Still, those aren’t the teams they’ll be looking to beat in the playoffs.

Instead, they’ll have to run through the top of the Central Division, where the Wild must prove themselves come April.

Since the NHL adopted its current playoff format in 2013-14, the Wild have drawn a first-round opponent outside of the Central Division only once, falling to the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2020-21 season. While stacking wins is good, it doesn’t cover up the fact that the Wild have had difficulties against top Central Division teams.

Minnesota scored 113 points during the 2021-22 season and played a St. Louis Blues team that scored 109 points. The Wild took a 2-1 lead but ultimately lost to St. Louis in six games.

The Wild rattled off another 103-point season in 2022-23. However, they drew the Stars in the playoffs, jumping out to a 2-1 lead and losing again in six games.

These were disappointing outcomes, but the Wild were still a good team that just ran into a better one in the first round of the playoffs. That didn’t happen last year because the Central Division's best teams out-classed the Wild.

Minnesota went 0-4 against the Winnipeg Jets last season, with three of those games decided by one goal. The Colorado Avalanche also went undefeated against the Wild, beating them three times in the final 19 games to help knock them out of the playoffs.

Then there was the Stars, who continually blew out the Wild last season. Dallas only had three games against the Wild. Still, each was a demolition, winning 8-3 on November 12, 4-0 on January 8, and 7-2 on January 10. Minnesota’s lack of toughness was apparent in the three games. Dallas got whatever it wanted in front of the net, leaving the Wild with no answers.

Minnesota went 0-11-1 against these three teams, which was a big reason they spent April and May on the links instead of the ice. However, given some of the things that held the team back, Wild fans could find underlying positives.

Matt Boldy suffered an upper-body injury in the second game of the season and missed significant time. Other key pieces, such as Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin, also sustained injuries. Even Marcus Foligno wore down as the season went along, and the Wild were severely shorthanded against the most challenging part of their schedule – particularly the top of the Central Division.

Even Kirill Kaprizov missed seven games due to injury, which is a massive development for a player having a Hart Trophy-caliber season.

The Wild have some of that bad luck resurfaced in the past weeks. Mats Zuccarello will miss 3-to-4 weeks with a lower-body injury after being placed on IR Friday, and Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin are day-to-day with their ailments. However, the Wild still has a large core of their team in place, which could help them during this upcoming stretch.

It starts with Saturday’s game against Dallas, where the Wild can show they can hang out with the Stars. After a quick trip to St. Louis, the Wild head to the Northwest to battle Edmonton and finish the road trip with a stop against the Calgary Flames.

The Wild return to the Central Division to host the Winnipeg Jets on November 25. They will then have another detour in Buffalo before facing the Chicago Blackhawks, who beat a weary Wild team on Sunday (and the Nashville Predators), on November 30.

Minnesota's previous wins could already bank a playoff position at Thanksgiving. Still, wins over the Stars and Jets could give Wild fans optimism that they can make noise when they get there.

It’s not a perfect stretch. Still, it’s an opportunity for the Wild to show they can return to the playoffs this season.