A Marco Rossi Breakout Is Lurking Below the Surface

As it stands right now, Marco Rossi is sort of the Minnesota Wild's odd man out. The Wild are trying to make a push by going top-heavy on their first line. Their three biggest stars, Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy, are all playing together now. There's no room at the inn for Rossi.

Theoretically, Minnesota could get Rossi playing time with these high-end players on the power play. In practice, it's only rarely going to happen. Mats Zuccarello is entrenched as the fourth forward on the top unit. Brock Faber is thriving running the unit, taking a five-forward top power play off the table.

No one can blame coach John Hynes for going with this arrangement. Minnesota's top line is scoring 5.81 goals per hour at 5-on-5, third in the NHL among 152 lines with 100-plus minutes. There's no choice but to roll with that. It's the same deal for a power play that -- don't look now -- is tied with Auston Matthews' Toronto Maple Leafs for fifth-most in the NHL with 45 goals on the season.

But jeez, this arrangement kind of gives Rossi short shrift. Rossi is (typically) on the second line with Zuccarello and Marcus Johansson, and the latter is a significant step down from the likes of Kaprizov and Boldy. Zuccarello might be in a similar spot at 5-on-5, but at least he's on the power play to put up some offensive numbers. Rossi's few minutes of power play time are generally with Johansson, Ryan Hartman, Freddy Gaudreau, and Declan Chisholm. Again, hardly the firepower some of his other teammates get to enjoy.

Rossi is in fifth place on the Wild in scoring with 33 points, 11 behind fourth-place Matt Boldy. It's quite the drop-off, and it'd be easy to look at that and conclude that Rossi isn't near the level of Minnesota's Big Four forwards.

If you happen to be sleeping on Rossi's season, though, it's time to wake up. Not only is Rossi continuing to thrive despite being the "odd man out," but he's also showing signs that a further breakout is on the way with the right opportunity.

Rossi kicked off his two-goal night with a power play goal, but the bigger deal may have been his second tally of the night. That goal came at 5-on-5 and was his 14th goal and 27th point at 5-on-5 this season. In both categories, he moved past Boldy for sole possession of the team lead. That's right. We're talking ahead of Boldy (13 goals, 26 points), Eriksson Ek (12 goals, 25 points), and Kaprizov (11 goals, 25 points). 

Minnesota's not having the most spectacular 5-on-5 season, though, so it might be more useful to see Rossi's place in the league. His numbers are still impressive when widening our focus. Twenty-seven 5-on-5 points ties Rossi for 48th in the NHL among forwards, alongside Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault, and Alex Tuch. His 14 goals are tied for 26th with Brock Boeser, Clayton Keller, and J.T. Miller. 

It wouldn't be difficult to compile a list of star players Rossi's out-performing at 5-on-5. There's Matthew Tkachuk (11 goals, 25 points), Brad Marchand (12 goals, 20 points), Evgeni Malkin (11 goals, 24 points), Chris Kreider (13 goals, 24 points), Sebastian Aho (8 goals, 23 points), Cole Caufield (8 goals, 22 points), and Kevin Fiala (8 goals, 22 points). Names most hockey fans know pretty well.

But the best way to hammer home a comparison might be to stack up Rossi against Eriksson Ek, Wild's No. 1 center. One's a 27-year-old in his prime, having a stretch where he's dominating. The other is a 22-year-old rookie who's often getting second-line duty. Yet, take away the power play, and their numbers are nearly identical, with the edge perhaps going Rossi's way.

5-on-5 stats, 2023-24 season:

Marco Rossi: 1.12 Goals/60, 2.15 Points/60
57.3% Goal Share, 53.3% Expected Goal Share

Joel Eriksson Ek: 1.00 Goals/60, 2.08 Points/60
57.0 Goal Share, 53.8 Expected Goal Share

Where does that put Rossi in the pecking order among centers league-wide? His points per hour currently put him at 29th among his position. Players in his range include 2021 No. 3 overall pick Mason McTavish (2.22 Points/60), Mark Scheifele (2.18), Eriksson Ek, and Bo Horvat (2.07). He's not too far away from Sasha Barkov or Brayden Point (2.32 each), either. Rossi's 5-on-5 puts him in the same conversation as many bonafide No. 1 centers.

We're also not particularly used to seeing Wild players perform so well, so young. Most players in Wild history have needed time to get up to speed; think players like Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, or Eriksson Ek.

Here's how Rossi's 5-on-5 stats stack up all-time* among Wild players under the age of 23:

1. 2021-22 Matt Boldy (20): 2.99 Points/60
2. 2023-24 Matt Boldy (22): 2.45 Points/60
3. 2023-24 Marco Rossi (21): 2.15 Points/60
4. 2009-10 Guillaume Latendresse (22): 2.09 Points/60
5. 2014-15 Jason Zucker (22): 2.03 Points/60
6. 2013-14 Mikael Granlund (21): 1.99 Points/60
7. 2019-20 Joel Eriksson Ek (22): 1.95 Points/60
8. 2019-20 Luke Kunin (21): 1.84 Points/60
9. 2019-20 Jordan Greenway (22): 1.79 Points/60
10. 2014-15 Mikael Granlund (22): 1.78 Points/60

Boldy's easily the best very young player to come through the Wild system. But, notably, Rossi's the closest to getting there, especially considering that Boldy rarely has an elite linemate attached to him, between Fiala, Eriksson Ek, and now Kaprizov.

Faber's excellent, minute-munching rookie season is garnering a lot of attention and oxygen when it comes to Wild Calder candidates, but Rossi has a strong case of his own. He's tied for first in goals (17) with Connor Bedard and second in points (33) with Faber (behind Bedard). In terms of overall impact, Evolving-Hockey's xStandings Points Above Replacement has him as the leader among rookies, crediting Rossi as responsible for 3.9 of the Wild's 58 points. 

Looking past just the 2023-24 rookie crop, Rossi's season remains impressive. Kaprizov (4.0 xSPAR) sneaks past Rossi by a nose for the top mark on the Wild. Among the entire NHL, Rossi's xSPAR is tied for 39th in the NHL, on equal footing with Kreider, Jason Robertson, and Ryan O'Reilly.

Speaking of O'Reilly, Rossi's tied with the resurgent Nashville Predators center for 12th at his position. Turns out, the Wild weren't nuts for trading away O'Reilly, after all! In all seriousness, though, Rossi's xSPAR out-ranks Barkov (3.5), Point (3.8), Eriksson Ek (3.3), and Dylan Larkin (3.8), despite each having more minutes with which to generate value.

We'll have to wait another 26 games to see where his xSPAR ultimately falls. But at the moment, he's accumulating value at a similar rate to a 21-year-old Point, Jonathan Toews, and yes, even Sidney Crosby. Buy it fully or don't, but that should make your ears perk up, at the very least. 

Remember, Joel Eriksson Ek's ascendency to being accepted as a "True" No. 1 center this season didn't appear out of nowhere. Signs were hinting towards that for years before his latest, biggest breakout. If you missed those, no big deal -- you have another opportunity to get in on the ground floor and predict a breakout for the next great Wild center. Go ahead and take it.

All data via Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise stated.

*Minimum 500 minutes, all ages as of September 15