By Tony Abbott -
Heading into the 2025-26 season, it feels like we have a good understanding of who Matt Boldy is. In every season he's played so far, his 82-game paces have been between 26 and 32 goals and 64 and 75 points. Those numbers are very good, but in comparison to Kirill Kaprizov? It's clear that he's Cleft, the Boy Chin Wonder, to Kaprizov's Crimson Chin.
While it feels like Boldy's been around for a long time -- nearly 300 games now -- it's important to realize that he's 24 years old. Boldy's production appears to have plateaued over the past few seasons, particularly in comparison to Bill Guerin's proclamation that he has 50-goal, 50-assist potential. Don't let that disappointment fool you. The possibility for a breakout season is very much still on the table.
Remember that even in a relatively down year, Boldy still did a lot right. The headliner here is his amazing shot volume. Boldy finished the season seventh in shots on goal (272) and fifth in unblocked shot attempts (426). And while he experienced a significant slump in the middle of the season, he started and ended the season strong. His first and final 20 games (including playoffs) saw him score 22 goals and 46 points in 40 contests.
Obviously, the middle of the season also counts, but it's worth noting that those times line up roughly with Kaprizov's availability. So long as Kaprizov re-signs in Minnesota, we should see close to a full season with that duo being together. With Mats Zuccarello out, the two star wingers started training camp together on the top line.
It's not just Kaprizov that's on Boldy's side; it's also age. In 2023, we identified 12 forwards who had similar numbers to Boldy from their age 20 and 21 seasons. Let's list those players out, as well as the age they were when they first hit 90 points:
David Pastrnak: 22
Tim Stützle: 22
Aleksander Barkov: 23
Jack Eichel: 23 (94-point pace; COVID-shortened season)
Matthew Tkachuk: 24
Elias Pettersson: 24
Taylor Hall: 26
Anze Kopitar: 30
Sebastian Aho: Never (Career-high: 89 at age-26)
John Tavares: Never (Career-high: 88 at age-28)
Jonathan Toews: Never (Career-high: 81 at age-30)
Brock Boeser: Never (Career-high: 73 at age-26)
For players who achieve true superstar status, their breakouts tend to occur between ages 22 and 24, the tail end of Boldy's window. For those age-24 breakout players, Tkachuk and Pettersson, their careers followed a similar path to Boldy's so far: Fairly stable production, and then...
Points Per 82 Games By Season, Tkachuk:
Age-20: 59
Age-21: 79
Age-22: 72
Age-23: 63
Age-24: 104
Points Per 82 Games, By Season, Pettersson:
Age-20: 75
Age-21: 80
Age-22: 66
Age-23: 70
Age-24: 105
Points Per 82 Games, By Season, Boldy:
Age-20: 68
Age-21: 64
Age-22: 75
Age-23: 73
Age-24: ???
That's not to say that Boldy is destined to make that same leap Tkachuk and Pettersson did. But the stage is set for it, and if Boldy can't make that jump this year, he's much more likely to stay plateaued than ever getting to the level of a star player.
It's also worth noting that Kaprizov was also in his age-24 season when he made the leap from Calder Trophy winner (51 points in 55 games) to MVP candidate (108 points in 81 games). Kaprizov's birthdate (April 26) makes him only three weeks younger than Boldy (April 5), relative to each other. And when you look at their trajectories, they also look incredibly similar.
It's not the cleanest comparison, given Boldy was in the NHL at 20, while Kaprizov was in the KHL until he was 23. Fortunately, we have the NHL Equivalency (or NHLe) to help translate point totals between leagues. So, year by year, let's see how the two wingers stack up.
Age 18:
Kaprizov (KHL): 34 points
Boldy (Hockey East): 25 points
Age 19:
Kaprizov (KHL): 57 points
Boldy (AHL): 51 points
Age 20:
Kaprizov (KHL): 57 points
Boldy (NHL): 68 points
Age 21:
Kaprizov (KHL): 59 points
Boldy (NHL): 64 points
Age 22:
Kaprizov (KHL): 72 points
Boldy (NHL): 76 points
Age 23:
Kaprizov (NHL): 76 points
Boldy (NHL): 73 points
Age 24:
Kaprizov (NHL): 109 points
Boldy (NHL): ???
Again, that's not to say "Boldy is Kaprizov." Last season left no doubt that Kaprizov was a top-10 player in the NHL at the height of his powers. However, Boldy's numbers, which are tracking similarly alongside Kaprizov, suggest he can reach the level of, say, Mikko Rantanen, another player famous for being a Barnacle Boy to Nathan MacKinnon's Mermaid Man.
It's far from too late for Boldy to join those ranks. The foundation is there, and his skills are immense. He just needs to put it all together. This year is his best bet to do just that.
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