Article: Why Did the Wild's Penalty Kill Fall Apart In 2023-24?

[Robert Brent]

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[Citizen Strife]

A goal a game can mean a lot.  Even if it isn't a win, there's potential for games to go into overtime, earning at least an extra point at minimum.  The Wild's offense is not built for high scoring output.  That means defensive play, goaltending, and PK must be at a premium.  Sure, Fleury is what he's going to be, but you can't tell me having two of the best defensive defenseman in team history (Brodin/Spurgeon) and a great defensive forward (Foligno) fully healthy means nothing.

I did like that even with so many injuries, the Wild still managed to play decently against lacking offensive or more defensively sound teams.  Ramp up that side, and maybe you can mitigate the feasts the heavy hitters do, if not blank them completely.  I don't expect overnight seachange.  But even a modicum of improvement should be doable.

[Citizen Strife]

I looked up the league GA stats again.  Going from least goals (Panthers: 198) to most goals allowed (Sharks: 326), the Wild were 20th (260).  So, here's a thought experiment about what improved PK might do.  Maybe not a goal a game, but what about 25%, 50%, or 75% of that?  So, 20.5 goals per 25%.  So let's just say the Wild let in 20.5, 41, 61.5, and 82 less goals than they did.

 

As is: 260 goals (20th)

.25 less goals per game: 239-240 goals (10th-11th between Oilers and Sabers)

.5 less goals per game: 219 goals (4th-5th between Carolina and Boston)

.75 less goals per game: 199-200 goals (3rd between Winnipeg and LA)

1 less goal per game: 178 goals (1st by a wide margin)

 

What I'm getting from this is the gulf between playoff contention and missing is not as impossible as it seems.  Sure.  60-80 less goals per game seems unlikely.  But even getting 20-40 makes the Wild Top 5-10 in the league.  I'm not saying PK has everything to do with making up that 20-40 margin, but it will have an impact.  Heck, even giving up 10 less goals puts the Wild top half of the league.  You'd be surprised how little margin separates bubble teams.  The Wild need to find ways to come out ahead.  It looks like defense is the plan for this year.

[raithis]

It was definitely a personnel problem last year with so many injuries to key players.  There were even times when Johansson was out on the PK because other players were exhausted.  You put players like that out there and give the other team a lot of chances and your goalies aren't going to look so great.  Players like Faber did well, but he couldn't hold the fort together by himself.

I do like the Trenin signing.  I know it would be nice to have more offense, but if we are stronger defensively and can be a little better on the PK like Citizen mentioned, our offense is good enough to win us games.  If Rossi hits another gear this year and Boldy can add a bit more power forward to his game, then I think the offense will be even less of a concern.

Looking forward to watching some pre-season games in a couple weeks!

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Heck, even giving up 10 less goals puts the Wild top half of the league.  You'd be surprised how little margin separates bubble teams.

Yes, specifically if those 10 goals impact the games against the bubble playoff teams.  If the Wild gave up 2 fewer goals to Nashville right before the all-star game, that reduces Nashville to 97 points and the Wild to 89 points in the standings. If the Wild hold the 3rd period lead against Anaheim in the next game, they climb to 91 points.

Another 6 goals could flip 6 more points to the Wild. If they won that January 25th game, they would still have needed to get to 98 points to pass Nashville in the standings because Nashville had more regulation wins, but 1 more OT goal could have been the difference. It does come down to about a dozen goals, stopped or scored in the Wild's favor, that could have changed their fate, but I'm glad it played out as it did so they could add Buium. He adds exciting possibilities for their future.

They had a really rough year for injuries last season, but were pretty competitive in some stretches. A healthy team with some developments from the young guys could make a difference. Boldy, Rossi, Faber, Gus & Chisholm could all have better years, and I'll mention a possible improvement from a healthy Gaudreau as well.

[Burnt Toast]

I’ve seen the Wild ranked as high as 2nd to finish in the central, all the way to second to last by THG. My hope is the Wild find and develop players that take pride in being elite at the PK. I heard the new assistant PK coach on a podcast and he played in the NHL and seems serious about making a difference. It can’t hurt to take staying out of the box seriously, taking only “good” penalties as much as possible. I’d like to see the Wild heading towards being one of the least penalized teams in the league. 

[Sam]

3 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

I’ve seen the Wild ranked as high as 2nd to finish in the central, all the way to second to last by THG.

What’s THG? Yes, I’m a noob.

[Burnt Toast]

1 hour ago, Sam said:

THG?

The hockey guy. Great unbiased take on the NHL. He’s covering the whole league so sometimes he’s off. There’s no way the Wild are only going to finish ahead of Chicago. I think the cap penalties are a big part of his predicting the Wild so low. He’s on YouTube. 

[Patrick]

This should be mandatory reading for all the Spurgeon haters. There is a lot more to being a good hockey player than individual stats show. I predict a strong season for the PK if Spurgeon is healthy.

[mnfaninnc]

18 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

I heard the new assistant PK coach on a podcast and he played in the NHL and seems serious about making a difference. It can’t hurt to take staying out of the box seriously, taking only “good” penalties as much as possible. I’d like to see the Wild heading towards being one of the least penalized teams in the league. 

I hope your definition of "good" penalties are earned penalties and not these stupid stick infractions. Don't hook, don't slash weakly, don't trip and don't high stick. I don't mind earned penalties where you get your money's worth. It's even better if you can take a guy with you. 

As for the PK, this is the 1 glaring area that if fixed and we can gain a 10% fix over last season (finishing around 84% kill rate), I think our season goes dramatically better. I think our personnel will be much better too. Getting Foligno back, Dino becoming a killer and Trenin being a killer will help. Something tells me Ohgren might be a pretty good killer. Specifically on the back end if we get Spurgeon back (which I am pessimistic about) and start the season with Bogosian, we've got a better back end of killers too. All of Spurgeon, Faber, and Bogosian can kill on the right side. Brodin and Middleton are good on the left. 

That heat map shows just how bad our coverage was. What we need are specific places that the goalie knows where the shot is coming from and that he can count on being at that place, that helps out a goalie tremendously. This is why on our PP it is important to have a competent player in Ovechkin's office. The opposing goalie doesn't even have to honor a weak Zuccarello wrister from that area. Sure, a couple get by but there's no canon coming from that side. 

To me, we will be adding speed and youth to this PK which will be a nice shot in the arm.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

As for the PK, this is the 1 glaring area that if fixed and we can gain a 10% fix over last season (finishing around 84% kill rate), I think our season goes dramatically better. I think our personnel will be much better too. Getting Foligno back, Dino becoming a killer and Trenin being a killer will help. Something tells me Ohgren might be a pretty good killer. Specifically on the back end if we get Spurgeon back (which I am pessimistic about) and start the season with Bogosian, we've got a better back end of killers too. All of Spurgeon, Faber, and Bogosian can kill on the right side. Brodin and Middleton are good on the left. 

Mermis was particularly poor in his 43+ minutes short-handed. The fact he was in 47 games and used on the PK tells a story about how injured the Wild were. The Wild only saved 69% of shots while short handed with Mermis on the PK.

They had 13 goals against in less than 44 PK minutes for Mermis, so opposing teams scored more often than not every 2 minutes of his short-handed ice time.

[Mateo3xm]

On 9/10/2024 at 3:14 PM, Burnt Toast said:

I’ve seen the Wild ranked as high as 2nd to finish in the central, all the way to second to last by THG. My hope is the Wild find and develop players that take pride in being elite at the PK. I heard the new assistant PK coach on a podcast and he played in the NHL and seems serious about making a difference. It can’t hurt to take staying out of the box seriously, taking only “good” penalties as much as possible. I’d like to see the Wild heading towards being one of the least penalized teams in the league. 

The ppl that ranked them to be second in the central need to lay off the bong hits. Avs, Jets, Stars and even Preds are far better teams than we are. I don’t see a way that’s happening.

 

Random question but do any of you guys play fantasy hockey?

[Mateo3xm]

10 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Mermis was particularly poor in his 43+ minutes short-handed. The fact he was in 47 games and used on the PK tells a story about how injured the Wild were. The Wild only saved 69% of shots while short handed with Mermis on the PK.

They had 13 goals against in less than 44 PK minutes for Mermis, so opposing teams scored more often than not every 2 minutes of his short-handed ice time.

I hope they give hunt a shot. Couldn’t be much worse than mermis.