Article: What Does the Faber Contract Tell Us About Guerin's Long-Term Plan?

[Justin Hein]

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[Citizen Strife]

I'm curious how the Lundell/Beniers contracts affect Rossi.  Beniers probably hit high end cause his 55 pts the previous year. However, Rossi showed 20 goals.  How he performs next year will kinda confirm his 4.5-7m money.  I'd prefer something on the lighter end, but if he gets to 55-65 pts somehow, it's a good problem to have.

[Citizen Strife]

As for other contracts, everyone else has to prove better options than those currently in the roles.  Khusnutdinov has at worst Dewar/Duhaime's spot on lock (1-1.5m), but no one else has done anything on the NHL roster.  I think Guerin is waiting to see what players do in camp, AHL, or other places.  There are spots for people to take by force.  Guerin has shown he wants the player to do it and make up his mind for them.

[Burnt Toast]

Well thought out article. I agree with the key points. The Wild are playing the long game. They want a high floor and a strong ceiling. I’m glad they stayed patient with their drafting, keeping and acquiring a lot of picks. It’s going to be interesting to see how Wild Management handles the veteran players over the next 4 years. Especially if the young players are as good as advertised. The future looks promising. 

[B1GKappa97]

Quote

That doesn’t mean the Faber extension spells the end of Kaprizov’s time in Minnesota. Instead, it implies that Guerin has a plan to make up that impact through the prospect pool. 

Ding, ding, ding! This is exactly what he's doing. Which I thought has been fairly obvious but people love to hone in on the M-NTCs and ignore how the contracts actually stack up. 

If you dig deeper, it looks like he's also set up the contracts so that as some of those potential blue-chip prospects are due for new big-money cap-hits, vets are dropping off the ledger to help pay for the expense.

Its like, idk, he's looking ahead multiple seasons when crafting the roster or something...

Edited August 21 by B1GKappa97

[Citizen Strife]

Also note, The Wild have multiple late round picks in another year, even if some rounds are missing picks this coming year.  He also still has the 1sts and 2nds in all coming years.

[B1GKappa97]

Yeah I don't think its an accident he was stacking up those 2026 NHL draft picks. Those will allow him to make moves, whether in the offseason or around the TDL to potentially move some guys and/or bring others in as necessary. 

Last year, and likely this year also, was rough but there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel for us! 

[Dean]

Rinse and repeat just like Fletcher did . Now we’re pushing this Stanley cup contender lie out to 30-33 . The money doesn’t add up just like the likely hood  all these kids making  the roster on cost effective deals. Last I checked none of those d men can even play ahl level hockey . Just like none of the forwards have proven anything yet . What has been proven is Billy’s washed up vets can’t get you past a round in the playoffs or even to the playoffs anymore.  What has been proven is Billy can’t run a front office or make good cap decisions.  So now it’s give him till 30-33. Ridiculous!  He could have tore down and rebuilt with top 5 draft picks in less time than giving his friends overpaid jobs while we wait to see his prospects.  He’s always going to be a few pieces short with no money , roster space or hockey mind to get what we need . He thinks Freddy g is a good hockey player. 
    The  so called cost effective rfa s will be prime candidates for offer sheets . So if he tries to hardball the kids he’ll have other gm s fing with the wild and there non cap space and ntc’s . The other problem I see is those kids are undersized and weak. I guess we’ll just wait till the nhl goes back to little people win cups. Oh yeah that doesn’t ever happen. Looking forward to 30 -33 and all the years of make believe hype till then 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

46 minutes ago, Dean said:

What has been proven is Billy can’t run a front office or make good cap decisions.  So now it’s give him till 30-33.

You're the only one looking at it that way. If Guerin doesn't have the team competitive in the next few seasons, he's not going to be the GM in 2030.

Nobody was going to make the Wild cup contenders within 5 years due to the state the Wild were in when Guerin took over, routinely flirting with the last playoff spot, easily ousted, and just a couple strong young prospects. They had gone 3 seasons without winning more than 1 playoff game in a single postseason and hadn't advanced a round since 2015, when Parise and Suter were 30 years old.

The cap penalties were too much to overcome and keeping Parise and Suter wouldn't have solved the issue either because they would have been taking up a bunch of cap space and delivering replacement level results.

The Faber contract should be good no matter who is GM late in the deal. We should have a better picture of the future for the Wild by the end of this season, and particularly in 25-26.  If the Wild aren't highly competitive in 25-26, then a lot more people will be questioning the direction of the franchise.

How many contenders have been dealing with $14M tied to 2 players who aren't even on their roster, or are playing at replacement level?  That's the situation Guerin walked into. Not every move has been perfect, but the Wild don't seem to be in terrible shape either.

You look at a team like Detroit, who did go rock bottom in 19-20(Guerin's first with the Wild), and they haven't made the playoffs since Guerin has been the Wild GM. Are they about to win it all?  We shall see who has the better team in 25-26 when you can fairly judge with a much more even cap situation.

[Pewterschmidt]

26 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

If Guerin doesn't have the team competitive in the next few seasons, he's not going to be the GM in 2030.

That sounds like the Wilderness is getting close to drawing a line in the sand for Guerin.  Hired Aug 19, 2019.  We're at the 5 year mark. 

But P-Zempic there were the buyouts, then COVID, then the cap guy Bob Loblaw....He kept his draft picks Bob Loblaw...Boudreau, no Evason, no Hynes is the problem/fix...our prospect pool is rated highly by a beat writer living in his mom's basement Bob Loblaw....the culture is better Bob Loblaw....it's time to see the results.  5 year mark is time to see tangible results in the form of playoff wins.  But they had 100+ pts in regula...Bob Loblaw.  Just wait til Yurov get's here Bob Loblaw.  Heig..Bob Loblaw.  No net gain adds to the forward group outside of the drafted unproven prospects (maybe his biggest FAIL) 

Guerin has used all his human shields and fired everyone he can to deflect the blame...he's now all-in on the following:

1) his prospect pool.  Need at least two to be top six needle movers (not placeholders) upon arrival.

2) The old apathetic old core which has been middling their entire careers (possible exception of 37 year old Zuccy)

3) I assume a free agent whopper trade next summer that gives 97 his wing man.

I expected more at the 5 year mark.

#Augusthottake

 

Edited August 21 by Pewterschmidt

[Pewterschmidt]

24 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

That's the situation Guerin walked into.

walked into

created

[Burnt Toast]

3 hours ago, Dean said:

The  so called cost effective rfa s will be prime candidates for offer sheets

I’m fairly confident that the Blues/Oilers situation isn’t going to become an epidemic of dealing with player acquisition. That particular situation has alot of backstory with the management involved on both sides including former Oiler’s employees. It’s been said “ It’s not personal it’s just business.” But not always. I think how Rossi is handled as a top RFA is very important. I hope he gets extended soon. 

[Citizen Strife]

The fuck does Bob Loblaw mean?

10 seconds later...gets it: I'mma walk away from this now.

*Keeps working on LEGO before bed*

Edited August 22 by Citizen Strife

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

2 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

That's the situation Guerin walked into.

walked into

created

I know that you know Guerin did not create the contract situation for Parise and Suter. He could have handled it differently, but he didn't create it. Did you think the Wild would be cup contenders keeping Parise and Suter around at $7.5M each through last season?

I know that you know Guerin did not create the prospect pool that had only Kaprizov and Boldy as viable players that were sure to play above the bottom line on a contender. Jack McBain and Luke Kunin were the best players to come from the 2016-2018 draft years. The Wild had an excellent 2015 draft(JEE and KK97) or they'd be in rough shape right now. The Rossi draft might end up as Guerin's worst draft if Heidt keeps developing and Rossi could be better than McBain.

The Wild traded away their 2014 prize of Tuch being short-sighted. Soucy was their best player from the 2013 draft and Dumba from 2012. Guerin walked into a couple of stars in KK97 and Boldy, but had to sign them and extend them on solid deals, which he did.

I was merely saying that the Wild weren't setup for deep playoff runs when he took over. To me, it wouldn't be insane to think that they could get beyond the 1st round in 25-26. That's a little beyond 5 years, but which teams were terrible when Guerin took over that are cup contenders now? The Rangers, maybe?

In the West, Colorado was setup for a run, Vegas went to the conference finals, Dallas went to the Stanley Cup Finals, and Edmonton already had McDavid and Draisaitl when Guerin took the reins. Those are guys that have a chance to get the most goals in team history for Gretzky's former team.

Guerin didn't take over at the most enviable time, but the Wild have won over 56% of their games with him as GM. I don't expect a long playoff run this season, but the team does seem to be positioned well for 25-26, so I don't think there's a lot of cause for doom and gloom.

[mnfaninnc]

I realize this is a very fine point, but it just needs to be made. Words matter, and when they are used interchangeably, it numbs down the meaning of both. Justin, I'm not trying to nit pick but here goes:

Quote

Overall, it seems Guerin has opted for a safer strategy with a strong possibility of ending in a roster that can compete for a Cup.

Now, at first look, this sentence is pretty accurate, but in the context of how Guerin used this, we need to take a step back. Typically, we use contend and compete or a version of this root interchangeably, but we can't. Guerin promised us a "competitive" team. What does that look like? Well, it looks like getting an invitation to the playoff party and having a 1st round curfew. 

I think the word you needed here was "contend." Guerin was very careful not to use that word through the cap strapped years. He has given us exactly what he promised us: A team in the 13-17 range each year. That is a competitive team, and now with 32 teams we can stretch it out to 18 or 19. What it doesn't look like is how Buffalo, San Jose, Detroit, Ottawa, Chicago and Arizona/Utah have looked. Long losing streaks and a team done by February.

Contending is a whole different matter, specifically where Guerin is concerned. Contending means more like conference finals and deep cup runs. Contending is getting an invitation to the playoff party and dancing the night away, being one of the last to leave. This is what's coming and probably 1/2 of the current roster won't be here for it. Guerin is setting this team up for contending, but he is cautious about mentioning that word too quickly.

[mnfaninnc]

On to some other topics.

Dean is right. It would have been much easier to have tanked for 5 years with top 5 draft picks and built the team that way. Yet, there was a lot of risk involved in doing that, just ask Arizona/Utah and Buffalo and Ottawa. There's no guarantee we would have even picked the right guys. There most definitely would have been a lot of pain watching this team.

After the 2006 playoffs, where I got to enjoy Carolina bringing home the cup, I also got to witness the demise of a team with a decade of missed playoffs. They were unwatchable. They were pathetic. The product was crap. We did not have to go through this pain. 

Yes, it would have been easier, but easier is not always the best way forward. And, there is a real possibility if that was the direction we were going, Kaprizov would never have signed a 5 year deal, he would have signed just enough to get him through the RFA period and head somewhere else. Guerin would have had to trade him right around the time Tkachuk got traded to Florida.

6 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

That sounds like the Wilderness is getting close to drawing a line in the sand for Guerin.  Hired Aug 19, 2019.  We're at the 5 year mark. 

The 5 year mark is when the drafted prospects from Guerin should be entering the N. It is not when everything comes together. And, since the hiring was after the draft that year, he gets a pass in time for most of the 1st year. 

Guerin's clock starts now with the 2020 draft. Marco Rossi, even with his health scare, is here early. Dino and Hunt appear ready to also make the roster. A really good draft is when 3 guys can make a significant contribution from that draft class. A really good draft run is when you can do this 2/3 years. One could argue that since Faber was traded for as a prospect with no N games, he could also be a part of this group which would give us 4 from that draft class.

In the next year we have The Wall debuting. Of course, it generally takes goalies an extra couple of years, so he is really early. In the following draft class, we already have Ohgren in, and Yurov looks to make it. Who else might come from those classes? They don't look real good now, but I expect improving: Lambos, Spacek, Lorenz, Bankier are all progressing. And let's not forget about Mikey Milne!

Will everyone make it? Probably not, but wouldn't it be great if everyone was ready to make it? One thing I do see a lot, and I'm not picking on Pewter here, but it is a lack of, or short sighted look at projections and internal improvements. We have to build this team from within, and we have some great prospects to do it with. They're starting to trickle in, so now what?

While I can understand being done with patience, deep playoff runs at this time should not have been the expectation. We have to factor in a couple of years of acclimation to the N and more turnover for the kids. I think your expectations were a bit unrealistic as far as the rebuild went, but, we did get to experience playoff hockey in 3/4 years of cap penalties so far. Sure, it was short lived, but it still was better than the teams going through all the pain. We're improving internally even though it's hard to see sometimes. Results almost always lag. 

[Outskated]

Guerin's boss has ZERO interest in tanking.  Tanking means losing millions in gate revenue, core season ticket holders, corporate sponsors, merchandise sales, TV money and the list goes on and on.  That is why most teams rebuild on the fly.  Leipold gives his marching orders to BG and BG must carry out those orders.  As long as the owner has year over year revenue growth, winning the cup doesn't matter.  He is who needs to be held accountable by the fans and the media in this town on where this franchise is.  

[Burnt Toast]

9 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

This is what's coming and probably 1/2 of the current roster won't be here for it

I don’t see any way the Wild don’t continue to improve over the next 5 years. Pretty much everyone has them pegged as a fringe playoff team right now. Realistic ceiling as 1st round playoff series win. Do they have the potential in the pipeline to fill key positions? Most. Having JW on a steady development path is HUGE. Where would Dallas, Tampa, or Florida be without their stars in net? 

[Pewterschmidt]

Rossi, Wallstedt, khuz, and Chisholm will be offer sheet eligible RFA’s next summer

Edited August 22 by Pewterschmidt

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Rossi, Wallstedt, khuz, and Chisholm will be offer sheet eligible RFA’s next summer

Not sure The Wall  will qualify for offersheet status. I don't think he'll have enough time served.  Dino may fall into the same category.

[Willy the poor boy]

On 8/21/2024 at 5:47 PM, Pewterschmidt said:

walked into

created

Exactly. He chose it, and he knew the situation when he took the job.