Article: Why Doesn't Bill Guerin Borrow From Bill Belichick's Core Philosophy?

[Tom Schreier]

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[FredJohnson]

I don't see Hartman's contract as a bad one. Foligno's probably is bad because he'll get hurt due to his play style. Zucc's contract looks okay if his production doesn't fall off the table. Frauddie's contract is bad. NoJo's contract is bad.

[Citizen Strife]

Some dope online stated Kaprizov's agent might angle for a $15m AAV.  Apparently Charley Walters from the Pioneer Press said it first, but I didn't see it anywhere legit.  We saw a few weeks ago that they can sign all three bigger names to whatever money they want and make it work, even with the 'middle class bloat."  Keeping Kap, Rossi, and Faber is possible.

That said, I wouldn't be happy with Kap making $15m.  $13m is the highest I'd go before saying, "Look, he wasn't going to stay for any reason."

Kaprizov leaving (if he does) isn't going to be because the team decided to play 1-2 rookies per season instead of 5-6 rookies at once.  He'd leave for any number of reasons.  Overpaying any player over their station is not going to help the team, if it comes to that.

It feels so weird being one of the few people who will fight against the writers each day, but alas.  There's ways around the issue.  It just feels like the articles are pounding the same drum, without realizing there's still ways out of the "bloat."

Edited July 16 by Citizen Strife

[IllicitFive]

While there are some great points about locked into middle class bloat, Bill was also known for taking guys that weren't necessarily the highest touted prospects and brought out the best in them. Biggest evidence was Julian Edelman, considered small at 5'10" for a WR, drafted in the 7th round but turned into a main component for the Pats. I would argue they were a team of a lot of "middle class" players (minus GOAT Brady and other pieces that came and went). Bill was able to get the BEST out of them, as a team, and they were also known for defense that would just grind people down and be stingy (seems similar to what the wild have been known for in their history). They rarely took penalties or made mistakes, that was the standard they were held to and everyone bought in. It also helps that Tom Brady was taking much cheaper contracts than he could have had. He was never top paid in the league, usually not even to 5. That plays a big role is bringing in others as a rental too in the NFL.

Do we know that Bill didn't try to get a longer contract or do we know it was Bill saying "nope only this many years"? Maybe Kap was playing hardball? With Rossi I don't see the issue of having another year to show his worth, to keep with the NFL theme see Matt Flynn, showed a flash for a year, signed huge, became a back up the next year by not beating out rookie R Wilson.

In my opinion the contracts that have been signed by the vets and Wild may be more to do with salary certainty, letting the young guys develop and see if any TAKE a spot (Faber, Boldy, and now Rossi) or flame out (Beckman). Also by not forcing the young guys up immediately their contracts will be rookie deals a bit longer, possibly allowing more cap flexibility over the next couple years as contracts fall off, to sign free agents as well as pay for a Faber who has earned a big payday.

[Peter Lemonjello]

Yet another whiney article about Hartmans, Moose, etc contracts.

Time to move on and stop pretending it's so easy to GM an NHL team.

[Willy the poor boy]

17 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

Bill was able to get the BEST out of them, as a team, and they were also known for defense that would just grind people down and be stingy (seems similar to what the wild have been known for in their history).

Exactly why I thought it was a mistake to fire Deano. The team outperformed their talent every year under him.

18 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

In my opinion the contracts that have been signed by the vets and Wild may be more to do with salary certainty, letting the young guys develop and see if any TAKE a spot (Faber, Boldy, and now Rossi) or flame out (Beckman). Also by not forcing the young guys up immediately their contracts will be rookie deals a bit longer, possibly allowing more cap flexibility over the next couple years as contracts fall off, to sign free agents as well as pay for a Faber who has earned a big payday.

We were gonna compete after the buyouts were done. He has us in a situation that looks like it will be much more of the same unless a bunch of prospects go against the odds and explode in their ELC's. I'm hopeful as much as anyone that happens but it's unlikely.

[Peter Lemonjello]

44 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

I don't see Hartman's contract as a bad one. Foligno's probably is bad because he'll get hurt due to his play style. Zucc's contract looks okay if his production doesn't fall off the table. Frauddie's contract is bad. NoJo's contract is bad.

Johansson's contract is fine. He was paid $2ml and played like it. Not sure what people expect from a $2ml player.

[Peter Lemonjello]

7 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

Exactly why I thought it was a mistake to fire Deano. The team outperformed their talent every year under him.

We were gonna compete after the buyouts were done. He has us in a situation that looks like it will be much more of the same unless a bunch of prospects go against the odds and explode in their ELC's. I'm hopeful as much as anyone that happens but it's unlikely.

What exactly is Belichicks record without Brady? 

[IllicitFive]

2 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

Exactly why I thought it was a mistake to fire Deano. The team outperformed their talent every year under him.

We were gonna compete after the buyouts were done. He has us in a situation that looks like it will be much more of the same unless a bunch of prospects go against the odds and explode in their ELC's. I'm hopeful as much as anyone that happens but it's unlikely.

I agree with the Deano thing, though maybe he lost the locker room, I don't know I wasn't there. I have felt unsure about the competing (assuming you mean for the cup) once the bye outs were done just because either A. We were going to have to use chunks of that money to pay prospects that flashed or B. They didn't work out and now we are not having guys who are cheap/first/bridge contract, the wild could build around.  That rule change for the cap really screwed the team over. I agree, an immediate jump up is unlikely but maybe works out better long term? Typical MN sports fan here, hoping for the best always but ready for the let down (though I will push that feeling off as long as I can.) Just curious, rewind time, how did you envision the team competing post buy outs?

[Willy the poor boy]

2 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

I agree with the Deano thing, though maybe he lost the locker room, I don't know I wasn't there. I have felt unsure about the competing (assuming you mean for the cup) once the bye outs were done just because either A. We were going to have to use chunks of that money to pay prospects that flashed or B. They didn't work out and now we are not having guys who are cheap/first/bridge contract, the wild could build around.  That rule change for the cap really screwed the team over. I agree, an immediate jump up is unlikely but maybe works out better long term? Typical MN sports fan here, hoping for the best always but ready for the let down (though I will push that feeling off as long as I can.) Just curious, rewind time, how did you envision the team competing post buy outs?

Leo could've pushed for a grandfather clause in relation to that rule change. I believe he knew like most of us did those contracts would not age well. Kind of lost in all of that is Leo is making out like a bandit with the cap hits. He's saving that money each year.

Guerin told us we'd be ready when the cap hits were off. In the beginning I envisioned better draft positions and therefore better quality players developing over these years. I also thought they would be gaining valuable experience in the big league, and then lastly but not leastly, have money to add skaters in areas of need next offseason. Hardly any of that happened or is going to happen.

[Willy the poor boy]

10 minutes ago, Peter Lemonjello said:

What exactly is Belichicks record without Brady? 

I don't know, what is it?

[Willy the poor boy]

12 minutes ago, Peter Lemonjello said:

Johansson's contract is fine. He was paid $2ml and played like it. Not sure what people expect from a $2ml player.

I agree an won't be surprised if he outperforms that contract again this year.

[Citizen Strife]

I love how there's this weird commotion about "how are they going to compete," "what's it going to take?"  Well, Kaprizov, Fiala, Boldy, and lots of players playing crazy offensive years didn't make it.  What's making anything think dumping 2-3 players and signing a Stamkos, etc. whatever was going to do it either?  There's also no guarantee that blowing the team up San Jose or Chicago style was.  That hasn't worked for New Jersey and Ottawa.  

The team has talent.  You want a game breaking talent?  That's Kap's job.  Ek and Boldy are damn good options.  Fiala didn't win with the Wild nor LA, so he wasn't the answer.  The team needs secondary offense (which hopefully comes from Rossi, Yurov, and Heidt).  What the team needs is defensive structure and consistent goaltending.  Brodin and Spurgeon are getting older.  If Faber and Buium pan out, then that solves all but the Wallstedt thing.  There's every chance Gus splits the different from 2nd-60th and plays around 20th-30th in the league for now.  Wallstedt might be that missing piece after that.

I understand the concerns.  Get this high offense guy, get that high offensive talent guy.  Well, last week, I posted about teams (including our fabled 03 team) that rode the defense and goaltending to success.  That's why I'm willing to be patient.  Watch what a team like Toronto does with nothing but offense...doesn't end well either.

 

[Willy the poor boy]

4 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

What's making anything think dumping 2-3 players and signing a Stamkos, etc.

For me it's all about overpaying and signing players to lengthy contracts with clauses, not about dumping players.

[Citizen Strife]

Clauses that they can probably get out of if they want to.  Some GM is always looking for stupid things to do in desperation.  Most of those NMCs move to NTCs after a year or two anyway.  The players most likely to make the team are going to make the team anyway.  The cap rising is going to offset things, just as slowly sloughing contracts will make room  The main issue is the wait for them to get here is driving people up the wall.

Yurov didn't want to sign this year: lord knows what plans changed because of that decision.  There's no guarantee he or Heidt or Buium are even any fucking good.  But what if they are?  One more bad year of wait is hardly a problem.  The Wild decided to go for a high floor team until that happened.  Look how many fucking injuries it took to even be, "Sort of bad enough to not make the playoffs."

Edited July 16 by Citizen Strife

[Dean]

Great article! Kappy isn’t leaving because of how many prospects get played . He’s going to leave because this bozo gm couldn’t surround him with a decent roster . The Billy believers just keep making excuses for him and hyping up kids that won’t ever live up to the hype.  To read you want to get rid of kappy because he costs to much after you make excuses for Billy’s misfits is ridiculous. How many more years are they going to keep making excuses for Billy? 
    Bozo Billy should have sold the misfits at trade deadlines to get better assets in the draft . Then go get more misfits in free agency. Rinse and repeat till you get out of buyouts. Then you have better prospects, better cap flexibility and money to get free agents after buyout . Instead bozo billy kept putting uncompetitive teams on ice and embarrassing the fans for no reason . Billy believers think this is a plan ? 

[B1GKappa97]

Quote

By failing to sign Kaprizov long-term, Guerin has mimicked Belichick’s worst trait while failing to adhere to his core philosophy.

Shit, I didn't realize that Kaprizov had left already 😞

This seems like an article better saved for '25-'26 UFA than right now when he's, you know, under contract for another 2 years.. Besides, its not like Bill didn't keep the guys that fit his Patriot Culture around either.

Vrabel, Bruschi, Wilfork and Rodney Harrison were all OGs that he kept around to help him install and maintain that culture with the team, you know... even when they got old..

[B1GKappa97]

51 minutes ago, Peter Lemonjello said:

Johansson's contract is fine. He was paid $2ml and played like it. Not sure what people expect from a $2ml player.

At least 50 points and 30 of those have to be goals....

[Dean]

If Dean is such a good coach , why doesn’t he have a job? Maybe minny fans don’t understand the value of things like the rest of the league does . Kinda like the bozo contracts we hand out aren’t given out by good teams . 

[Willy the poor boy]

24 minutes ago, Dean said:

If Dean is such a good coach , why doesn’t he have a job? Maybe minny fans don’t understand the value of things like the rest of the league does . Kinda like the bozo contracts we hand out aren’t given out by good teams . 

Every year, EVERY year GM's make the wrong decisions on coaches. Someone along the way will realize his value. Hell, Hynes gets another shot, Deano sure oughta.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, IllicitFive said:

Exactly why I thought it was a mistake to fire Deano.

IMO Dean was fired after being outcoached in playoffs two years in a row.  He made no adjustments (in-game, or game to game) and just rinse/repeated what he did all season.  I think Guerin gave him a pass the first year b/c the regular season record was so good.  Then when Deano did it again the second year with the same result his seat got hot.  Then when the team shit the bed last season it was the final straw.  And the PP and PK were pretty miserable too.

I also think that's why Deano has not landed his next job yet.

[Willy the poor boy]

18 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

IMO Dean was fired after being outcoached in playoffs two years in a row.  He made no adjustments (in-game, or game to game) and just rinse/repeated what he did all season.  I think Guerin gave him a pass the first year b/c the regular season record was so good.  Then when Deano did it again the second year with the same result his seat got hot.  Then when the team shit the bed last season it was the final straw.  And the PP and PK were pretty miserable too.

I also think that's why Deano has not landed his next job yet.

They weren't even supposed to make the playoffs though. What adjustments? That's the 'darling' phrase but what adjustments. Easy to say harder to do especially when you're down the size of the cap hit they were down. The Blues and Stars were hands down better teams. They weren't going to win those series.

[Peter Lemonjello]

"By failing to sign Kaprizov long-term, Guerin has mimicked Belichick’s worst trait while failing to adhere to his core philosophy. "

Seriously, stop with the "I know how to run an NHL team better than the guy doing it"

Did you ever stop to think that KK wasnt signing past 5 years?

Russo even reported that KK's agent wanted a 3 year deal so in 3 years KK would walk into FA. Billy Boy held his ground and got him signed for 5 years. Wheres the credit for that? 

How about someone on here writing an article about the contract Billy Boy had Ek sign? or signing Hartman for $1.7ml and then putting up 34 goals? 

 

[Willy the poor boy]

26 minutes ago, Peter Lemonjello said:

"By failing to sign Kaprizov long-term, Guerin has mimicked Belichick’s worst trait while failing to adhere to his core philosophy. "

Seriously, stop with the "I know how to run an NHL team better than the guy doing it"

Did you ever stop to think that KK wasnt signing past 5 years?

Russo even reported that KK's agent wanted a 3 year deal so in 3 years KK would walk into FA. Billy Boy held his ground and got him signed for 5 years. Wheres the credit for that? 

How about someone on here writing an article about the contract Billy Boy had Ek sign? or signing Hartman for $1.7ml and then putting up 34 goals? 

 

It's a discussion board, I like hearing everyone's opinions that's why I'm here. During the season you'll find more positivity here.

[Beast]

The chemistry between Kaprisov and Zuccarello is way overblown, IMO.  It makes Zuccarello look much better, while I’m not sure it really helps Kaprisov.

Zuccarello is basically a 1 PPG guy with Kaprisov, closer to .5 without.

I was able to find something on statmuse that showed Kaprisov without Zuccarello.  It’s not perfect (I’m not sure whether it includes every game), but it shows Kaprisov with 23 goals and 23 assists and a +12 over 37 games.  That’s 100 point season over 82 games, right in line with his career stats.

Conclusion:  Kaprisov would have “chemistry” with anybody you put out there.  He’s just that good.  Zuccarello has nothing to do with it.  Don’t let that be the reason we drag a salary cap boat anchor around.