Article: The Wild Are Slipping Down the Central Division Rankings

[Will D. Ness]

15 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Foligno? Gaudreau? Bogosian? Merill? Spurg? Brodin? Mojo?

All these guys are over 30 and should be expected to decline. Not saying none of them will bounce back this year just saying that the typical trend is for a regressive decline after 30. Expecting these players to have their best seasons or match them is a losing bet.

Generally speaking, I think the big decline comes in the late 30's vs a relatively small decline in the early 30's.  Biggest exception is probably running backs in the NFL.  You don't see too many RB's in their late 30's these days.  Higher contact sports obviously will have higher decline rates with such a high wear and tear.

I've seen graphs posted around here used to support many writers gripes about age related decline, but they were slanted somewhat by not isolating injuries.  

The decline I am talking about is basically just Father Time and not injury related decline but it is hard to isolate the two.  (ie Spurg might be one of these double whammies)

As far as your list goes, Spurg and Foligno are questionable because of wear and tear.  You may be right but let's hope not.

Bogosian plays a physical game but he kind of had a renaissance last season.  Will it continue?  I think so.  He looked on top of his game and is what 33?

Brodin got boarded by Kane.  It was a cheap shot.  We need Trenin to rectify it.  I'm not worried about Brodin declining.

Freddy got demolished by Reavo.   Not only did it injure him physically, but I think it also got in his head.  I don't think he will decline... can't get worse than last year.  I think he significantly improves actually.

Merrill and NoJo?  Do we care?

[TM6975]

On 7/13/2024 at 10:19 AM, OldDutchChip said:

quick fix

Besides, if it ends up being doom and gloom, they get another over hyped prospect, loose kaprizov, and become irrelevant for another decade

yeap

Lol tell me you know nothing about hockey without telling me you know nothing about hockey. Yep Buium is overhyped! 😂 

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, IllicitFive said:

I think the hope is a progression back to the mean

I'd argue the mean is what we witnessed last year from our dead weight players.

I think you're making a case for regression back to the 'mean' which was career years for Fraud, Foligno, Hartzy, Zuccy, nojo's 'contract season 25 game stretch', etc

This group is a couple years older so the odds of another career year is low to zero, and low just rode out of town.  I'd argue we'll need Hooz Nuts, Ogzy, Hunt, Chisolm, Fabzy, Rozzy (who else?) to take a stair step improvement from last season to backfill the career year production from the apathetic dead weight core.

Edited July 15 by Pewterschmidt

[mnfaninnc]

12 hours ago, LittleBallofHate said:

I liked Tuch alot, but overpaying to get him back would torch me personally, regardless of which regime idiotically sent him packing as an insurance-piece.

What would you consider fair compensation and what would be an overpay?

[Tony Abbott]

Hey, all, let's turn the heat down on these arguments a bit. Nothing wrong with disagreeing, but no need to get heated and attack each other.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

1 hour ago, Will D. Ness said:

Generally speaking, I think the big decline comes in the late 30's vs a relatively small decline in the early 30's.  Biggest exception is probably running backs in the NFL.  You don't see too many RB's in their late 30's these days.  Higher contact sports obviously will have higher decline rates with such a high wear and tear.

I've seen graphs posted around here used to support many writers gripes about age related decline, but they were slanted somewhat by not isolating injuries.  

The decline I am talking about is basically just Father Time and not injury related decline but it is hard to isolate the two.  (ie Spurg might be one of these double whammies)

As far as your list goes, Spurg and Foligno are questionable because of wear and tear.  You may be right but let's hope not.

Bogosian plays a physical game but he kind of had a renaissance last season.  Will it continue?  I think so.  He looked on top of his game and is what 33?

Brodin got boarded by Kane.  It was a cheap shot.  We need Trenin to rectify it.  I'm not worried about Brodin declining.

Freddy got demolished by Reavo.   Not only did it injure him physically, but I think it also got in his head.  I don't think he will decline... can't get worse than last year.  I think he significantly improves actually.

Merrill and NoJo?  Do we care?

The issue is 22-23 was a record year for Gaudreau, Foligno and 21-22 was a record year for Spurg. 23-24 was Bogosian's best year.

My issue is we signed Gaudreau, Foligno, Bogosian and Nojo all based on statistical anomalies. Regression to the mean was what last year was once you take away the missed time for injuries. Foligno was a part of one of the best defensive lines in hockey in the GREEF line. He was never an exceptional or standout player on his own. He is defensively pretty solid and throws the body lots but that is about it.

Gaudreau is a career AHL'er, he only stuck in the big show when he came here. I don't see him having a resurgence in the next few years. This is the norm for him.

Spurg is on the dangerous edge of decline in both health and age.

Brodin probably has a 3-4 more years before we see the age cliff hit him.

Bogosian has a resurgence this past year which was probably equal to his best season ever. I do not believe he will match that again at 34, nor does probability.  

What i am saying is Guerin's plan of a veteran resurgence goes against evidence based statistics and probability. My hope lies in the younger guys that keep getting better and knock these folks down the ladder. Ohgren, Rossi and Dinov all have a shot at doing that. The sad part is getting rid of these guys after they fall all the way down the ladder won't be easy nor cheap, hampering us further in the years we should be making runs.

[Pewterschmidt]

13 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

The issue is 22-23 was a record year for Gaudreau, Foligno and 21-22 was a record year for Spurg. 23-24 was Bogosian's best year.

My issue is we signed Gaudreau, Foligno, Bogosian and Nojo all based on statistical anomalies. Regression to the mean was what last year was once you take away the missed time for injuries. Foligno was a part of one of the best defensive lines in hockey in the GREEF line. He was never an exceptional or standout player on his own. He is defensively pretty solid and throws the body lots but that is about it.

Gaudreau is a career AHL'er, he only stuck in the big show when he came here. I don't see him having a resurgence in the next few years. This is the norm for him.

Spurg is on the dangerous edge of decline in both health and age.

Brodin probably has a 3-4 more years before we see the age cliff hit him.

Bogosian has a resurgence this past year which was probably equal to his best season ever. I do not believe he will match that again at 34, nor does probability.  

What i am saying is Guerin's plan of a veteran resurgence goes against evidence based statistics and probability. My hope lies in the younger guys that keep getting better and knock these folks down the ladder. Ohgren, Rossi and Dinov all have a shot at doing that. The sad part is getting rid of these guys after they fall all the way down the ladder won't be easy nor cheap, hampering us further in the years we should be making runs.

KA-BOOM!!

#truthbomb

#compoundingofbaddecisions

[Will D. Ness]

38 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

What i am saying is Guerin's plan of a veteran resurgence goes against evidence based statistics and probability. My hope lies in the younger guys that keep getting better and knock these folks down the ladder. Ohgren, Rossi and Dinov all have a shot at doing that. The sad part is getting rid of these guys after they fall all the way down the ladder won't be easy nor cheap, hampering us further in the years we should be making runs.

I would add Heidt too, but I'm not holding my breath.

Pretty much every single contract BG has done has been generous for the player in both term and AAV and player protection.  Is the guy just a poor negotiator?  Does he have a bias towards player interest?  Maybe he just doesn't care?  

It will likely cost us assets to get rid of these... although there is also LTIR that might come into play.

[IllicitFive]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I'd argue the mean is what we witnessed last year from our dead weight players.

I think you're making a case for regression back to the 'mean' which was career years for Fraud, Foligno, Hartzy, Zuccy, nojo's 'contract season 25 game stretch', etc

This group is a couple years older so the odds of another career year is low to zero, and low just rode out of town.  I'd argue we'll need Hooz Nuts, Ogzy, Hunt, Chisolm, Fabzy, Rozzy (who else?) to take a stair step improvement from last season to backfill the career year production from the apathetic dead weight core.

I will say, I have no hope in Nojo, I hope he gets prossboxed all season if they can't unload him. We agree on the stepping up, 100% that why I stated

"I believe most can agree the best option would be young guys coming in, earning a spot in the NHL, and pushing some of these aging guys down the line up to 3rd and 4th line roles. A 4th line a Moose, Gaudreau and TBD doesn't seem to bad. Less minutes, can play physical, and not expected to add as much offensively. "

As far as the older guys I am not saying that they will reach those plateaus, but instead gedreau scoring 5 maybe hitting 10 to 15 goals is realistic. Moose still had 10 goals in 55 games, which is close to 15 for 82. Zuccy is aging out, agreed, I don't see him having number unless with Kap. Hartman has been fairly consistent for the last 2 years so the 20 to 25 range isn't out of line. Sure with age may dip a bit but unless fall off a cliff that is all better than last years numbers.  Injuries play a big role, if playing hurt you won't be nearly as effective, hence the hope of better productivity if healthy vs hurt for chunks of the year. I am not claiming this will happen, just hope for the hometown team. With all things, age is undefeated and will end careers with the hope youth can fill in.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

10 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

I would add Heidt too, but I'm not holding my breath.

Pretty much every single contract BG has done has been generous for the player in both term and AAV and player protection.  Is the guy just a poor negotiator?  Does he have a bias towards player interest?  Maybe he just doesn't care?  

It will likely cost us assets to get rid of these... although there is also LTIR that might come into play.

He seems to be a shrewd negotiator when it comes to dealing with other GM's, not so good when it comes to dealing with player's agents. It may be a symptom of Minnesota not being a particularly desired destination. I'm guessing a combination of taxes, weather and their relative playoff history. Still, I feel like comparatively we pay more, for more term, with trade and movement protections than most teams in the league. 

[IllicitFive]

2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

Genius is back! Oh let's see what he has for us kids - 

• progression to the mean - for who? for the team for a specific player or for this group? assuming its these guys -> Foligno? Gaudreau? Bogosian? Merill? Spurg? Brodin? Mojo? What is the "mean" for them? please tell us what is the mean for Bogosian? is that being one of the worse Defenders in history? what is the mean for Merill haha seriously what is it? or Gaudreau 😜? or maybe expand on what you meant re Spurge? you know he was injured so it wasn't a down year due to performance, it was injury that limited his play, so maybe expand how the injuries + age may contribute to his return to you mysterious mean or perhaps failure to return to that mean? Brodin had an off year or did you just list him by accident? i thought he was good? but ok. Mojo's mean is what exactly - i think he is as consistent as he always been for us? You are surprising me with a lot of noise without substance! i thought better of you papa
• Guadreau playing 4th line because he is physical? do you actually watch the game or just pick the players at random and assign them to a role? maybe try Guadreau with Kap next? seems like something you would suggest!

🍻 

Really want to do this again after your hissy fit? OK, first read what I put correctly first.

Progression to the mean for guys yes, Freddy went from 14 goals and 44 points to 19 and 38 down to 5 and 15 last year after being injured and now we know played hurt most of the year. I never said back to 19 goals but 10 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Yes 4th line, because hopefully younger guys will come in with more scoring touch and push him down. He Has been known more for being sound on defense so that would be a great role for him. I would never put him with Kap because their games/styles don't mesh. 

Merill? Why do we care? Shouldn't see the ice unless injuries happen. Never said Spurge and Brodin weren't injured, what I said was

"With the injuries that everyone but Bogo, Merill, and Mojo had, I think its fair to hope that they won't have that again this year and hopefully be more productive."

Therefore Brodin and Spurge were acknowledged as being hurt. If they are healthy and playing that is a net positive for the team due their above average defense. So mean by definition "intend (something) to occur or be the case" would be playing close to a full slate of games healthy. Progression then would be for the parts as well as the whole in this case, seems unlikely top 2 of 3 defenders are out like they were last year. Number of games played from opening lineup was not great. Zuc 69, Brodin 62, Moose 55, Spurge 16, even Boldy and Kap missed time. If all healthy that can't hurt instead of playing less skilled or not ready guys more.

If you disagree that fine, feel free, I will lay out my points of why I think how I do. Feel free to disagree or challenge all you want, I will try to back it up, but please try to understand what I typed out, read it first and quote properly instead of making it up like you have in the above. 

[OldDutchChip]

3 hours ago, TM6975 said:

Lol tell me you know nothing about hockey without telling me you know nothing about hockey. Yep Buium is overhyped! 😂 

ilicit is that you? did you created another login? oh that's awesome! welcome

[Dis-allowed display name]

I am usually Mr Negative, but I don't think things are nearly as bad as everyone else does.  

First, there is nothing to look forward to this year except mediocrity and hoping they play some youth that we can watch.  But seriously, no silly attempt to make the playoffs if we are on the bubble should be made.  If it comes crunch time we should sell any bad assets someone will take, and I would entertain any offer for Spurgeon if someone wanted him for a cup push, to clear cap and sell on his decline.

After ANOTHER dismal year, things look up pretty fast.  We have a lot of prospects, we will have cap, tradeable assets in some of those youthful players, high draft picks, etc.  

Kap is not going anywhere.  He will re-sign when the time comes.  Yurov and Liam will add punch.  And the dead weight on the roster will be closer to short contracts that maybe can be moved, sent to the press box or bottom six, or bought out entirely.  

Embrace the suck for a year, teams bottom out, but after this year the future looks pretty good.  And if we happen to get a lottery pick, then booyah.

Edited July 15 by Dis-allowed display name

[OldDutchChip]

52 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

Really want to do this again after your hissy fit? OK, first read what I put correctly first.

Progression to the mean for guys yes, Freddy went from 14 goals and 44 points to 19 and 38 down to 5 and 15 last year after being injured and now we know played hurt most of the year. I never said back to 19 goals but 10 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Yes 4th line, because hopefully younger guys will come in with more scoring touch and push him down. He Has been known more for being sound on defense so that would be a great role for him. I would never put him with Kap because their games/styles don't mesh. 

Merill? Why do we care? Shouldn't see the ice unless injuries happen. Never said Spurge and Brodin weren't injured, what I said was

"With the injuries that everyone but Bogo, Merill, and Mojo had, I think its fair to hope that they won't have that again this year and hopefully be more productive."

Therefore Brodin and Spurge were acknowledged as being hurt. If they are healthy and playing that is a net positive for the team due their above average defense. So mean by definition "intend (something) to occur or be the case" would be playing close to a full slate of games healthy. Progression then would be for the parts as well as the whole in this case, seems unlikely top 2 of 3 defenders are out like they were last year. Number of games played from opening lineup was not great. Zuc 69, Brodin 62, Moose 55, Spurge 16, even Boldy and Kap missed time. If all healthy that can't hurt instead of playing less skilled or not ready guys more.

If you disagree that fine, feel free, I will lay out my points of why I think how I do. Feel free to disagree or challenge all you want, I will try to back it up, but please try to understand what I typed out, read it first and quote properly instead of making it up like you have in the above. 

ilicit - believe it or not i to can read and can think! one more time so that we are clear and we can all move on. i do not expect Wild to be in the playoffs. I fully expect them to be battling for the last 2 spots in the central, barring a miracle. you seem to disagree and think that return to mean would get us back in the playoffs (since we were almost there last year - i would think that is what you are going with - so playoffs for Wild) 

Let's look at whats Working against us - 

Spurgeon is 34 and trying to come back after serious of surgeries. Foligno, Harty and Freddy also had work done. Their style of play is very demanding, well apart from Freddy's. So that will take a toll. Freddy was slow before and now it seems that we are doing our best to hide him in our lineup, but we may be doing that with more than him. So when a team "hides" a player - its bad, but it's manageable, but when a team "hides" multiple players (freddy, MJ, potentially others like Harty, Nutty, Zuccy, just on offense to name a few potentials) it's a disaster

Your Defense is relying on rejuvenated Spurgeon (lot's of question-marks -how will his body react given the physical play demanded and age and what can we realistically expect of him now?)  Bogo (who has been a consistent poop on ice during his career,  apart from last year), big softy - Middleton, Chissy (who is i guess an ok 3rd pair) and a great top 2 - yes that we have. so even if spurge miraculously comes back in the same playing shape as two years ago, we still have a lot of uncertainty with our other 3-6 D. and our D will be tested and it  will be exposed as we have virtually NO offense to rely on taking off the pressure from our D. We have 1.5 lines on Offense, meaning there is enormous pressure on D and Goalies

Next we have our Goalies. If they are not the worse tandem in the league, then i'd like to hear who is. Really nothing encouraging to say here apart from maybe they all get injured in preseason, Wall comes in and he is as advertised. 

So here it is. Your optimistic take of Wild in Playoffs vs My pessimistic take of Wild in the rear. We shall see.  Cheers. 🍻

 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Bogosian has a resurgence this past year which was probably equal to his best season ever. I do not believe he will match that again at 34, nor does probability.  

I don't disagree with the general principles here, but I do wonder how many of the models on age-related decline are several years old, possibly including data from 10+ years ago. We are seeing a higher proportion of athletes able to play at high levels later in their careers due to significant advancements in medicine, in general, with some of that specifically related to nutrition and/or training techniques.

NBA players seem to have extended their usefulness by a few years in the most recent decade, it seems, and I imagine NHL players could do the same.

I'm not going to suggest any of these recent contracts are great value.  Even if I suggested the other day that one could argue Hartman was underpaid, the argument wouldn't be that he's underpaid by a lot. The veterans that score around the pace Hartman does who took less on the open market this year are mostly several years older than him or have a significant injury history.

I will ask if the age-related decline models need to be updated to only include data from the last several years. Some reduction in physicality seems to have taken place in the last 10-15 years which could also prolong the years of productivity for players of this era.

[OldDutchChip]

37 minutes ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

I am usually Mr Negative, but I don't think things are nearly as bad as everyone else does.  

First, there is nothing to look forward to this year except mediocrity and hoping they play some youth that we can watch.  But seriously, no silly attempt to make the playoffs if we are on the bubble should be made.  If it comes crunch time we should sell any bad assets someone will take, and I would entertain any offer for Spurgeon if someone wanted him for a cup push, to clear cap and sell on his decline.

After ANOTHER dismal year, things look up pretty fast.  We have a lot of prospects, we will have cap, tradeable assets in some of those youthful players, high draft picks, etc.  

Kap is not going anywhere.  He will re-sign when the time comes.  Yurov and Liam will add punch.  And the dead weight on the roster will be closer to short contracts that maybe can be moved, sent to the press box or bottom six, or bought out entirely.  

Embrace the suck for a year, teams bottom out, but after this year the future looks pretty good.  And if we happen to get a lottery pick, then booyah.

if Kap stays and Wild get top 3 pick and select Ivan something and Yurov comes in and plays like Mogilniy (oh he was awesome, had his stick somewhere and lost it). I am going to be very excited. 💃 possibly be a bit more optimistic too and pleasant to converse with 😜🍻but only if all three happen!

[IllicitFive]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

ilicit is that you? did you created another login? oh that's awesome! welcome

Haha nope, I don't need to hide behind other names. Just looks like others also see you know know what you are talking about.

[Pewterschmidt]

52 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Even if I suggested the other day that one could argue Hartman was underpaid, the argument wouldn't be that he's underpaid by a lot.

Finally some love for Hartzy

[MNCountryLife]

I'm a bit more optimistic than I was at the end of last season.  I do think getting Spurgeon back and Faber entering his 2nd year will dramatically help the D.  Mid needs Spurgeon to return his game to the proper level as well.  Kick Nojo out of the lineup and I think we have a competitive bubble team.  If they continue to give Nojo 2nd line minutes we will be a bottom feeder team.  Yes, I think he is just that bad.

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Even if I suggested the other day that one could argue Hartman was underpaid, the argument wouldn't be that he's underpaid by a lot.

And the crazy thing is Hynes and Guerin call him out over the others. 

More WTF moments from Wild management.

[OldDutchChip]

53 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

Haha nope, I don't need to hide behind other names. Just looks like others also see you know know what you are talking about.

people can agree to disagree and offer their own opinion without being ridiculed or called names. is that a foreign concept to you? maybe work on that and it'll help.  if not, let's move on. all the best to ya.

[IllicitFive]

1 minute ago, OldDutchChip said:

people can agree to disagree and offer their own opinion without being ridiculed or called names. is that a foreign concept to you? maybe work on that and it'll help.  if not, let's move on. all the best to ya.

You say that, then insult? Plus also the first flinging curse words. SMH, you are hopeless haha. If people calling you out is being ridiculed and called names? Well not much I can do, sorry you feel that way, but tough.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

26 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

And the crazy thing is Hynes and Guerin call him out over the others. 

More WTF moments from Wild management.

I believe I recall Hartman coming into last training camp somewhat injured. He also led the Wild in penalties taken last year. I think they need to call out some veterans they think can give more when they are calling out players, and Hartman fits that. He was 3rd on the team in penalties drawn, so his net penalties were only -1, which isn't bad, but if he goes to the box a little less frequently, it'd help.

Speaking of penalties, Rossi was 2nd to Eriksson Ek for penalties drawn last year at 30, and accumulated just 18 penalties, so his +12 net penalties ended up leading the Wild. KK97 was 2nd(+8) while JEE and Zuccy tied for 3rd and 4th.

[Willy the poor boy]

2 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I believe I recall Hartman coming into last training camp somewhat injured. He also led the Wild in penalties taken last year. I think they need to call out some veterans they think can give more when they are calling out players, and Hartman fits that. He was 3rd on the team in penalties drawn, so his net penalties were only -1, which isn't bad, but if he goes to the box a little less frequently, it'd help.

Speaking of penalties, Rossi was 2nd to Eriksson Ek for penalties drawn last year at 30, and accumulated just 18 penalties, so his +12 net penalties ended up leading the Wild. KK97 was 2nd(+8) while JEE and Zuccy tied for 3rd and 4th.

I disagree. It's called grit, it's part of his game, they knew that when they signed him and we've heard for 4 years Guerin loves grit. Now they're gonna call him out for it? IMO, it's a clown show.

[MacGyver]

The Wild at best will remain stagnant this season. The Central has become a meat grinder now particularly with what Nashville has done. Most others in the division have improved. Chicago is no longer an easy two points. Colorado is still Colorado even though they are cap strapped like the Wild but just in a different way. Colorado is cap strapped because they have elite players making a lot of money where the Wild are strapped because of buyouts and handing out poor contracts to mushy middle players. 

Dallas will still be vying for the top spot in the division. Winnipeg has always been tough for us to beat and next year it will be no different. That leaves the Blues, Wild and Utah fighting at the bottom. I think Chicago will be the surprise of the division next year and will get the first wild card spot. 

We can talk about prospects all we want but to get to the point of being playoff competitive with a group of prospects takes several or more years particularly given the Wilds S-L-O-W development program.