Article: The Wild Are Doubling Down On Past Mistakes

[FredJohnson]

4 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

I don't see why we're so upset

[Willy the poor boy]

Lundell signs for 6 years @ 5 mill.

Any ideas on how that may affect Rossi's deal?

Stat wise I think Rossi had a better year in a much worse situation than Lundy...

[Citizen Strife]

*Going to do some rough math, so bear with me on this.  Could totally be off.  Capfriendly still exists out in the open, so I'm using that to help*

If Rossi asks for or deserves $5-6m, it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.  It isn't just Faber's contract ($8-9m) and Kap's potential raise (to $11-12m).  

$2-3m+$8-9m+$5-6m = 15-18m

14.7-1.6 = $13m + $2.5m (Fleury) + $2.1 (Mojo) + $1.2m (Merrill) = 18.8m and that is JUST this year.  Add in 4.125 (Zuccarello) and $1.25 (Bogo), you then get an extra $5m and change to work with.

It is definitely within the realm of possibly to field the team they have, while cutting a corner or two based on other factors (Khusnutdinov contract and other ELCs).  This is without having to get into the Gus trade scenario to save money.  I think if it comes down to it, Rossi gets dibs over Gus any day of the week.  If you REALLY had to up Kap's price to stay even to $13m, you could cut corners and still keep Rossi.

Heck, Rossi could get Boldy's deal (not saying he's that kind of player yet, but could be), and still be fine.  The main issue at play is just how sure Guerin and others are that Yurov, Heidt, and or Buium are going to be better than Rossi after their ELCs are up.  However, they'll cross that bridge when they come to it.  They've have a few extra years to play with if those players hit to give them oodles of cash.

Edited July 3 by Citizen Strife

[WHockey]

4 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Let's go over this line by line.

• Kaprizov's NMC has kicked in
• Ek has an NMC and a M-NTC. Not sure why both, not explained
• Zuccarello has a full NMC, 2 years
• Foligno has NMC for 2 years, M-NTC for the next 2
• Hartman has NMC for this season, M-NTC after
• Freddy and Johansson have NTCs
• Brodin has an NMC
• Fleury has an NMC
• Spurgeon now has an M-NTC

After 2 years, the guys with NMCs will be Brodin and Maybe Ek. We don't know the full aspect of Middleton's protection. There's a lot of pessimism that we're stuck with these guys until the end of time, but it's simply not true. Guerin has given himself ways out. It's just that instead of these contracts being great value, now they're more in line with market value and if the player is traded, he'll get his value. 

Now, what are we waiting for? We're waiting for recent draft picks to get out of the marinating tub and overtake the placeholder forcing a trade. It's as simple as that. We don't need to fret over the roster. Guerin has put together a competitive roster for the now. And, he's given himself outs if need be.

I think this is the best analysis on the subject.  Guerin couldn't build with high salary star players without having the 14M that is tied up in dead money so he built one with the resources he had.  

I will admit 25/26 could be tough once Faber's deal kicks in, but if they are willing to trade Spurgeon they could allocate those dollars elsewhere if they wanted to.  Faber is essentially a younger Spurgeon and his replacement so it would be a luxury to have both and Spurgeon is on the older side as is. Moving Spurgeon would offset most of Faber's deal and you have your cap space back.

By 26/27 you can trade all the players everyone is complaining about except Foligno who would have one more year I believe.  Hanging onto those players doesn't come without risk as if they get injured or don't perform then they become untradable. Still I think Guerin's plan is solid.  Like a lot of teams for this to work the young talent has to come up and perform.  If they do I think this can be a monster team by 26/27

[Imyourhuckleberry]

If the Wild were to give Rossi $4.25M, Khusnutdinov $2.25M, and Faber $8.5M for 25-26, with the cap increase projected to $92M, I believe they could still have $5-6M for a 13th forward, moving Gaudreau to the press box.

KK97, JEE, Boldy

Zuccarello, Yurov, Ohgren

Hartman, Rossi, Foligno

Trenin, Khusnutdinov, Gaudreau(or Free Agent)

Given that Guerin can trade most of his guys to half of the league(16 teams), he could open more cap space to add a higher level player for 25-26.

Faber, Brodin

Spurgeon, Middleton

Bogosian, Buium

I've slotted $1M for Chisholm as the 7th D(or Hunt/Lambos), and the same amount for both Yurov and Buium. Also using $2M for Wallstedt, but he will be a restricted free agent, so that number could climb.

[Citizen Strife]

Looks like someone did some troubleshooting.  Might not be a perfect scenario, but hey.  You give Kap, Faber, and Rossi their money, and it still seems to work.  The main issue is after that, there's no, "ZOMG GOTTA GET STAMKOS!" level deal they can make for FA...but hey.  People wanted a way to keep Kap.  It's still possible.

[Willy the poor boy]

31 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

*Going to do some rough math, so bear with me on this.  Could totally be off.  Capfriendly still exists out in the open, so I'm using that to help*

If Rossi asks for or deserves $5-6m, it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.  It isn't just Faber's contract ($8-9m) and Kap's potential raise (to $11-12m).  

$2-3m+$8-9m+$5-6m = 15-18m

14.7-1.6 = $13m + $2.5m (Fleury) + $2.1 (Mojo) + $1.2m (Merrill) = 18.8m and that is JUST this year.  Add in 4.125 (Zuccarello) and $1.25 (Bogo), you then get an extra $5m and change to work with.

It is definitely within the realm of possibly to field the team they have, while cutting a corner or two based on other factors (Khusnutdinov contract and other ELCs).  This is without having to get into the Gus trade scenario to save money.  I think if it comes down to it, Rossi gets dibs over Gus any day of the week.  If you REALLY had to up Kap's price to stay even to $13m, you could cut corners and still keep Rossi.

Heck, Rossi could get Boldy's deal (not saying he's that kind of player yet, but could be), and still be fine.  The main issue at play is just how sure Guerin and others are that Yurov, Heidt, and or Buium are going to be better than Rossi after their ELCs are up.  However, they'll cross that bridge when they come to it.  They've have a few extra years to play with if those players hit to give them oodles of cash.

Kap I'm capping at 11 mill. I don't think you can give him more than Pastrnak from Boston can you? I'd actually say a mill less is fair.

[Citizen Strife]

I mean, if that ends up being true, then that's even more money to hold onto.  I used $13m as the, "Take it or leave it dude; we fucking tried." situation.

If Kap is deadset on leaving, $13m can get pretty much anyone except maybe the super duper stupid elite players.

Edited July 3 by Citizen Strife

[OldDutchChip]

12 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I mean, if that ends up being true, then that's even more money to hold onto.  I used $13m as the, "Take it or leave it dude; we fucking tried." situation.

If Kap is deadset on leaving, $13m can get pretty much anyone except maybe the super duper stupid elite players.

If Kap leaves, that 13 mil will be allocated to 2 or 3 3/4th liners, and we all know it 🤔

[Wild4Ever]

7 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Until Guerin trades away a 1st for Ryan Reaves thinking that's the missing piece, I'm going to assume Guerin has some clue of what he's doing.  If this was the Fletcher era, we wouldn't be able to draft Buium at all.

Maybe that's a different version of bad ..but it can ALWAYS be worse

 

Agree. We all know what Guerin inherited so get over it. If your panties are still in a wad, give Billy G a ringy dingy and apply for talent coordinator or capoligist. The clock on Guerin starts when we're through with the dead weight.

[Wild4Ever]

4 hours ago, Protec said:

Almost like Spurgeon helps the Wild keep the puck out of the net and makes the tendy's job easier. 

And Geurin just signed his enforcer.

[Will D. Ness]

53 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Looks like someone did some troubleshooting.  Might not be a perfect scenario, but hey.  You give Kap, Faber, and Rossi their money, and it still seems to work.  The main issue is after that, there's no, "ZOMG GOTTA GET STAMKOS!" level deal they can make for FA...but hey.  People wanted a way to keep Kap.  It's still possible.

I mean pretty fun perspective there on the Reddit link but the 25-26 scenarios depend on 6 rookies to be NHL ready.  (Wall, Yurov, Heidt, Ohgren, Hoos, and Z)

Tough sell.

[Wild4Ever]

4 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

The one thing that could really take this team down is if Nojo gets lots of ice time.  I really fell his play demoralizes the team chemistry.

Seems the Wild usually have 1 or 2 of those types every year. And they're easy to spot.

[TCMooch]

Honestly I’m glad we have the cap hits against us or the dumb ass GM would have signed all his favorite bottom six players to double the salary contracts he handed out.

Dude is a legit meathead with a temper. He is not GM material and I can’t wait to see him go.

[Protec]

4 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

How is this possible given all the dead weight is another year older.   Are you saying Trenin will make that much impact on the pk?   I’ll give you that one.  How else are we better?

I think Trenin, Chisholm, Ogie, and Knudi are solid additions that improve the depth. Bogo returning and Spurgeon to be healthy means NoJo can be relegated and the previous 4th line tryouts are gone. Therefore, next round of hopefuls means new hungry players. My belief is that the new mixture with the unsatisfactory result of last season will make the Wild better.

On paper, it's not by a lot but we're looking at a roster now without Addison or the in-fill guys from the AHL team. MN now has equal to or greater than Deweys, Lulongo Bros with Ogie, Knudi and now Rossi is building confidence.

Last year at this time we were hoping NoJo and Khaira was gonna move the needle. Having Da Buoy means MN could have a player good enough to join before the end of the year. Yurov too. So the Wild are better in that they've refreshed with minor upgrades and tweaks. My opinion is that it's gonna look a lot better as a whole.

A couple weeks ago, I felt they were still pushing through a rough patch. Now, I see more reasons to be optimistic.

[joebou15]

9 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Let's go over this line by line.

• Kaprizov's NMC has kicked in
• Ek has an NMC and a M-NTC. Not sure why both, not explained
• Zuccarello has a full NMC, 2 years
• Foligno has NMC for 2 years, M-NTC for the next 2
• Hartman has NMC for this season, M-NTC after
• Freddy and Johansson have NTCs
• Brodin has an NMC
• Fleury has an NMC
• Spurgeon now has an M-NTC

After 2 years, the guys with NMCs will be Brodin and Maybe Ek. We don't know the full aspect of Middleton's protection. There's a lot of pessimism that we're stuck with these guys until the end of time, but it's simply not true. Guerin has given himself ways out. It's just that instead of these contracts being great value, now they're more in line with market value and if the player is traded, he'll get his value. 

Now, what are we waiting for? We're waiting for recent draft picks to get out of the marinating tub and overtake the placeholder forcing a trade. It's as simple as that. We don't need to fret over the roster. Guerin has put together a competitive roster for the now. And, he's given himself outs if need be.

No one is acting like these guys are around "till the end of time." But I think what we're all pissed about was being sold a bill of goods of 

[joebou15]

9 minutes ago, joebou15 said:

No one is acting like these guys are around "till the end of time." But I think what we're all pissed about was being sold a bill of goods of 

No one is acting like these guys are around "till the end of time." But I think what we're all pissed about was being sold a bill of goods that this team was going to get out from under these two big contracts and finally be able to spend with roster flexibility. We were told to endure a few seasons in which the team could not put the best possible team they could ice because the light was at the end of the tunnel. Instead, we get this same shit for another two years? After enduring the last 4 seasons? 

That's not going to fly around here. 

And, frankly, it shouldn't. 

It can be argued the penalties of cap recapture were not the Wild's doing at the time they signed the biggest names in free agency 12 years ago. But since the decision to bite the bullet and buy those 2 out, there have been, at best, questionable moves that pushes that light at the end of the tunnel a few more years back. And this because of their own doing.

It's a classic bait and switch.

 

[MacGyver]

13 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

super duper stupid elite players.

Wait you mean Kaprizov isn't? Now you're just trying to get ODC riled up! 🤣

[Peter Lemonjello]

"Last year, the Wild prematurely signed Foligno, Hartman, Gaudreau, Merill, Mats Zuccarello, and Johansson to extensions. They all had down years and did not live up to the value of their contracts. "

 

What are you basing this off of?

According to Dom at the athletic , Moose, Hartman Zucc and Johansson all lived up to their contracts last year. Johhansson sucked last year and played like a $2ml player. And guess how much his contract was for? 

 

Hartman was making $1.7ml last year and scored 21 goals. Even at $4ml, that is living up to his contract.

 

I think Russo is trolling his readers and everyone just thinks what he tells them they should think.

its not like Moose or Hartman are signed to 7-8 year contracts at $6-$7ml.

Hartman has been a consistent 20 goal scorer since he's been with the Wild and he's not even 30 yet.

It would have been nice if you would have written about who the wild should have signed instead of the players they resigned. 

"Complaining without offering a solution to the problem is just whining"

[Peter Lemonjello]

10 hours ago, joebou15 said:

No one is acting like these guys are around "till the end of time." But I think what we're all pissed about was being sold a bill of goods that this team was going to get out from under these two big contracts and finally be able to spend with roster flexibility. We were told to endure a few seasons in which the team could not put the best possible team they could ice because the light was at the end of the tunnel. Instead, we get this same shit for another two years? After enduring the last 4 seasons? 

That's not going to fly around here. 

And, frankly, it shouldn't. 

It can be argued the penalties of cap recapture were not the Wild's doing at the time they signed the biggest names in free agency 12 years ago. But since the decision to bite the bullet and buy those 2 out, there have been, at best, questionable moves that pushes that light at the end of the tunnel a few more years back. And this because of their own doing.

It's a classic bait and switch.

 

The Wild will have $18ml in cap space next year that includes signing Faber and if they trade Gus that pushes it to $22ml.

They'll have plenty of cap space to sign one to two top 6 forwards.

[Peter Lemonjello]

12 hours ago, TCMooch said:

Honestly I’m glad we have the cap hits against us or the dumb ass GM would have signed all his favorite bottom six players to double the salary contracts he handed out.

Dude is a legit meathead with a temper. He is not GM material and I can’t wait to see him go.

"He is not GM material"

And you clearly are....

[Imyourhuckleberry]

15 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Heck, Rossi could get Boldy's deal (not saying he's that kind of player yet, but could be), and still be fine.

Boldy had 68 points in his first 89 games when he signed his contract. Rossi isn't getting close to that deal. Rossi is only half a year younger with 40 points in 82 games last season, and much worse the prior year(s).

[Imyourhuckleberry]

14 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

the 25-26 scenarios depend on 6 rookies to be NHL ready.  (Wall, Yurov, Heidt, Ohgren, Hoos, and Z)

Yurov has been highly successful in the best league short of the NHL.

Buium has been highly successful in the top non-pro league, and should be considered to be around Faber's level(when he entered the NHL).

Wall, Ohgren, and Khusnutdinov(Dewar replacement) already made it to NHL ice and will play bigger roles this year. Heidt is the largest question mark there, but the Wild don't need him to hit. They can afford someone else in that spot.

Edited July 4 by Imyourhuckleberry

[Citizen Strife]

Well, if Rossi doesn't get Boldy's deal, then that is more money to save for Yurov or Buium if they hit bigger.  Not gonna complain.  Rossi at a 45-60 pt. player + the added defensive skill to play on 3rd is not a bad thing to have on lock.

Edited July 4 by Citizen Strife

[Protec]

10 hours ago, joebou15 said:

No one is acting like these guys are around "till the end of time." But I think what we're all pissed about was being sold a bill of goods that this team was going to get out from under these two big contracts and finally be able to spend with roster flexibility. We were told to endure a few seasons in which the team could not put the best possible team they could ice because the light was at the end of the tunnel. Instead, we get this same shit for another two years? After enduring the last 4 seasons? 

That's not going to fly around here. 

And, frankly, it shouldn't. 

It can be argued the penalties of cap recapture were not the Wild's doing at the time they signed the biggest names in free agency 12 years ago. But since the decision to bite the bullet and buy those 2 out, there have been, at best, questionable moves that pushes that light at the end of the tunnel a few more years back. And this because of their own doing.

It's a classic bait and switch.

 

The bait & switch or deja-vu description is okay. I think it's more a matter of perspective. Reality happens so MN or Guerin can't script it starting at the buyouts. 

For me the biggest contrast is, two guys who are both pretty much done in the NHL for ~15M or the five guys with rubber on the tires that MN has signed for ~17M. 

As of today, those five guys bring a variety of qualities compared to the alternative guys who are as toasty as NoJo.

My .02 cents is, MN has more flexibility and trade potential with their five guys now. More potential for success now too because of the drafting and acquisitions that was poorer in the past. Some of the moves to get Wallstedt or Yurov, Chisholm, Trenin, Gus, have been upgrades or fill holes nicely. Previously MN was getting Winnick, Fehr, Stoll, Bergenhiem, etc.

I just don't see things as negatively.