Article: The Wild Are Doubling Down On Past Mistakes

[Luke Sims]

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[Pewterschmidt]

In need of a change, the Wild doubled down on what was already wrong.

Guerin is proving to be the classic hard headed bully type personality.  Thin skinned and stubborn.  Winning cures everything.  Please tell me we have our bottom six locked up for next 3-4 years Guerin.  No more signing's or extensions of bottom six players (not sure there's any that haven't been extended already).  Next move is to unload the apathetic old core.  Here's my predictions to leave in order of probability before season starts:

1) Zuccy - there will be a market and we should take first reasonable offer

end of list

Foligno - Guerin has a poster of Foligno above his bed.  

Nojo - no market value, one year left.  Everyone just hold their nose and wait it out

Fraud - Not an NHL'r.  No market value

I'm less concerned about 'elite' prospects being robbed of opportunities because injuries happen every year.  Regular get injured, prospect backfills for 5 games.  If he's better, injured regular stays in press box.  problem solved.

 

[Pewterschmidt]

I forgot to mention GUS getting traded.  I think Guerin is still actively shopping GUS but the available openings are getting filled and music is about to stop.

#dontbedumbbill

[Citizen Strife]

Until Guerin trades away a 1st for Ryan Reaves thinking that's the missing piece, I'm going to assume Guerin has some clue of what he's doing.  If this was the Fletcher era, we wouldn't be able to draft Buium at all.

Maybe that's a different version of bad ..but it can ALWAYS be worse

 

Edited July 3 by Citizen Strife

[Sam]

Paying players that are currently playing for us isn’t as bad at least. But I would think compared to other players of similar “SPAR” or whatever it’s a little overpriced.

[B1GKappa97]

We have Kaprizov, Ek, Boldy as top-6 locks. We have Yurov looking like a top-6 lock as well based on his projections and he's due over after this season. Rossi is looking like a solid C2 after last seasons' success. If Riley Heidt pays off on his potential, he's another top-6 lock who's 2 to 3 years down the road. 

Where exactly are we supposed to fit all that top-6 talent we were gonna splurge on in UFA?  That's 6 players right there.

Rossi and Heidt might be redudundent at some point so its possible one or the other gets traded, but if Yurov is who we think he'll be then we've got maybe 1 spot open in the top-6 for a guy anyway and if Rossi is traded then we get that cap-space back to give us enough room to add that top-6 forward you're craving. 

There is no one in the AHL right now who looks ready to push the bottom-6/pairing vets we have signed for playing time. Nobody. At forward or the blueline.

Until that changes, I don't see why we're so upset that we're locking in a good 2nd/3rd pair quality defensive defenseman and making sure we've got size in the bottom-6 for an inevitable post-season appearance.. 

[MrCheatachu]

15 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

In need of a change, the Wild doubled down on what was already wrong.

Guerin is proving to be the classic hard headed bully type personality.  Thin skinned and stubborn.  Winning cures everything.  Please tell me we have our bottom six locked up for next 3-4 years Guerin.  No more signing's or extensions of bottom six players (not sure there's any that haven't been extended already).  Next move is to unload the apathetic old core.  Here's my predictions to leave in order of probability before season starts:

1) Zuccy - there will be a market and we should take first reasonable offer

end of list

Foligno - Guerin has a poster of Foligno above his bed.  

Nojo - no market value, one year left.  Everyone just hold their nose and wait it out

Fraud - Not an NHL'r.  No market value

I'm less concerned about 'elite' prospects being robbed of opportunities because injuries happen every year.  Regular get injured, prospect backfills for 5 games.  If he's better, injured regular stays in press box.  problem solved.

 

I'm with you P-Diesel, except the Freddy bit.

I think Freddy getting crushed by Reavo did something that he didnt recover from last season.  I'd like to see how he plays this season before we stick a fork in him as an NHL'r.  Clearly his upside isn't a top-6 guy, but $2.1M for a guy you can trust to play responsibly isnt unreasonable...

[Pewterschmidt]

26 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Until Guerin trades away a 1st for Ryan Reaves thinking that's the missing piece, I'm going to assume Guerin has some clue of what he's doing.  If this was the Fletcher era, we wouldn't be able to draft Buium at all.

Maybe that's a different version of bad ..but it can ALWAYS be worse

 

While i don't disagree with your logic, justifying Guerin's actions with "well it could be worse" does not meet the minimum requirements of the NHL GM role.  Guerin has to move this group forward this offseason.  Moving sideways is not good enough.  If 97 does leave the post mortem of Guerin's term will include this off-season (if no other moves are made)

[Pewterschmidt]

26 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

While i don't disagree with your logic, justifying Guerin's actions with "well it could be worse" does not meet the minimum requirements of the NHL GM role.  Guerin has to move this group forward this offseason.  Moving sideways is not good enough.  If 97 does leave the post mortem of Guerin's term will include this off-season (if no other moves are made)

Fletcher was fired due to his gross negligence.  You're setting the bar too low if you say, well Guerin isn't as bad as Fletcher who went on to run the Flyers into the ground before getting fired again.

[TM6975]

Im in the minority probably, but if MoJo wants another NHL contract he will have to actually do something other than skate around. I expect a bounce back season of 20-25 goals from him this year. If not, he wont be given anymore NHL contracts. His MO of play hard on contract years and slack off the the years will be his undoing.

[Will D. Ness]

53 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Where exactly are we supposed to fit all that top-6 talent we were gonna splurge on in UFA?  That's 6 players right there.

If you got top 6 talent playing in the bottom 6, on ELC then you win the cup.  

[Dean]

Great article. Spot on. There is no magic after the buyouts . Billy has cornered himself with bad contracts. He’s a real tough guy with other GMs players ie suter , parise fiala. But not with his guys. He’s shown no ability to admit mistakes on his players. He doubles down.  He won’t be trading any of these boat anchors. Then he would be admitting he’s clueless. He will keep making excuses for his guys. Fred got body checked early in season so that’s his excuse for being terrible? Come on . Did he have surgery? I don’t think so. He’s just not good and Billy won’t admit it. Same with Jo Jo and the rest of the overpaid misfits. He has no vision of a future. Just pounding square pegs in round hole . 
     Billy has pieces to surround and propel this team forward but he’s utterly clueless as to how. It’s not signing bottom six to bad contracts. Or in Torontos case  primadona s to huge contracts. It takes a good ruthless gm to build a team. Like Florida, Vegas ,Tampa etc.  gunslinger GMs with a plan and some balls. Billy just likes his beer drinking buddies an a pr department to keep buying him time . 
    We have been bad all these years to continue being bad for many more years . There is no way they are making playoffs next year. Kappy is gone. Billy needs to go and take Judd and Fred with him. 

[Dean]

I disagree with the notion that Billy will easily be able to move his misfit contract s in the future. A. He won’t. It’s admitting he’s wrong 

B to move those contract he would have to pay to dump them or retain salary and give the player away for future considerations.  He will not get any value from them. They will cost us. 
    None of these contracts needed to happen. No one was going to sign Fred t  ok that deal . I doubt any of the misfits would have got there deal and clauses from any other team besides Chicago. Who overpays to hit cap min. . Just a joke of a gm with these dumb unnecessary contracts and no future flexibility. 

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, TM6975 said:

I expect a bounce back season of 20-25 goals from him this year.

If this is truly your expectation for Johansson, I expect you'll be disappointed. If your goals number were assists, I could agree with you. Johansson has never been a good goal scorer, mainly because he doesn't shoot often enough.

[mnfaninnc]

Let's go over this line by line.

• Kaprizov's NMC has kicked in
• Ek has an NMC and a M-NTC. Not sure why both, not explained
• Zuccarello has a full NMC, 2 years
• Foligno has NMC for 2 years, M-NTC for the next 2
• Hartman has NMC for this season, M-NTC after
• Freddy and Johansson have NTCs
• Brodin has an NMC
• Fleury has an NMC
• Spurgeon now has an M-NTC

After 2 years, the guys with NMCs will be Brodin and Maybe Ek. We don't know the full aspect of Middleton's protection. There's a lot of pessimism that we're stuck with these guys until the end of time, but it's simply not true. Guerin has given himself ways out. It's just that instead of these contracts being great value, now they're more in line with market value and if the player is traded, he'll get his value. 

Now, what are we waiting for? We're waiting for recent draft picks to get out of the marinating tub and overtake the placeholder forcing a trade. It's as simple as that. We don't need to fret over the roster. Guerin has put together a competitive roster for the now. And, he's given himself outs if need be.

[greg]

This is supposed to be the state of hockey.  But Forida wins the Cup.  And the Tampa Bay Lightning are much better than the Wild.  Yes Florida.  The hockey hotbed.  Dallas Stars another hockey hotbed in Texas.  I've been following pro hockey in minnesota since 1967.  Yes indeed that makes me old!  But I am dumbfounded as to why we cannot get a team that has a good chance of being a real challenger for the Stanley Cup.  Can we find a GM and/or owner that knows how to do this?  Do they even care as long as home games keep selling out?  I'm about ready to give up on them.  Signing aging veterans to long term no movement clauses doesn't make much sense to me.

[Need4speed99]

Guerin has absolutely taken the team from one cap hell to another. 

He was an idiot to hand out all those contracts then he doubles down again this year with 3 more. Not only is he overpaying for bottom 6 players he is blocking the prospect pool.

He also creates another world of problems with losing kap and a handful of other prospects. What kids are going to want to stick around here unsure if they will even see the ice or get a meaningful shot to succeed. 

Guerin needs to be gone after this year.

[Citizen Strife]

I looked up the main stats at the end of the previous season to compared with last season.

GF - 23rd to 20th

GA - 6th to 20th

PP - 15th to 10th

PK - 10th to 30th

 

If anyone needs proof why Guerin focused on a defense and PK player...well.  Gus needs to bounce back for sure, but goddamn.

Q

 

[Protec]

1 hour ago, TM6975 said:

Im in the minority probably, but if MoJo wants another NHL contract he will have to actually do something other than skate around. I expect a bounce back season of 20-25 goals from him this year. If not, he wont be given anymore NHL contracts. His MO of play hard on contract years and slack off the the years will be his undoing.

I hope so. 😁

I'm just not anywhere near the doomer-levels of you guys. 

MN doesn't have 14M tied up in just two aging, rotten apples. The Wild have five players for that cost. 50+ goals worth plus intangibles in their prime years. 

Other than Fleury, MN isn't that old. The prospect pool is strong, four of which are champions. The contracts with term are a known value and totally tradable. Only Spurgeon carries a high AAV but none of the players are confirmed gone'rs. There's some negatives about a few of the vets for sure, but that's worse out of context. 

Point is, MN is better now than before last season. Players will be healthy and hungry to win. The zero flexibility narrative just isn't true. There's some challenges and a lot of unknowns but more than half are good unknowns. Having to sign Faber or Rossi emerging as a healthy 2C is what you need money for. It doesn't have to be for outside players. Plus MN already saved money on Ek's deal and with Hartman scoring 20+ goals regularly. 4M contracts are not as hard to move as some say. 

Where's the narrative that a renewed Wild team led by it's top line is poised to get back to the top of the Central after adding a strong, multi-faceted, big guy, and hitting the jackpot at the draft?  

[Protec]

46 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I looked up the main stats at the end of the previous season to compared with last season.

GF - 23rd to 20th

GA - 6th to 20th

PP - 15th to 10th

PK - 10th to 30th

 

If anyone needs proof why Guerin focused on a defense and PK player...well.  Gus needs to bounce back for sure, but goddamn.

Q

 

Almost like Spurgeon helps the Wild keep the puck out of the net and makes the tendy's job easier. 

[Protec]

Trenin is a big dude who's Russian like Knudi & Kaprizov and will have two seasons with those guys. Likely one with Yurov before Kaprizov is expiring.

Thus a Russian connection is established with a mix of skill, utility, and toughness. I'm giving this a thumbs up. 

Ek, Brodin, and Ogie will be an elite Swedes synergy.

The NA presence rounds out the roster with a tiny Norwegian element, but the Wild just aren't stuck, or lost, or grasping at straws. Simple as that. 

They didn't sign Erik Johnson to a 3-year deal for old-time sake. They didn't commit 7-8M to a 33 year-old player for four more years. Guerin is going one step at a time. You can't discredit or derail four years of work because the whiners over at Hockeywilderness are scared Kaprizov is headed to FL. 

It's gonna be fine. 

[OldDutchChip]

are we doing predictions? fun!

2024-25 - we are NOT in the last place in central, but finish close ... very close to hawks. draft position is likely 5-10. not too bad, but we miss on ivan.

just like previously with Kuli, kap spends some time with his russian buddy yasha and after the season is done (early) decides he needs to move on (thanks the fans and billy). once he informs the team, guerin immediately does the smart thing and trusts his sharp instincts and goes directly to one of his GM friends (likely from penguins, sabres or preds org) and trades kaprizov for first fair offer.

our line up for 2025-26 team becomes -

• EK Boldy Zuccy (still here - there will be a ceremony to commemorate zuccy after 2026 year)
• Rossi Harty Ohgren
• Foligno Trenin Mojo (he will be extended followed by a good first half of the year or traded and brought back yet again!)
• FreddyG Nutty Bjugstad (3X3 contract)

(Yurov gets sent to fight a war instead of hockey)

Prediction Confidence at 85%

[Pewterschmidt]

24 minutes ago, Protec said:

MN is better now than before last season.

How is this possible given all the dead weight is another year older.   Are you saying Trenin will make that much impact on the pk?   I’ll give you that one.  How else are we better?

[MNCountryLife]

With the exception of Freddy and Nojo, I like our roster.  Rossi should take another step and Marat sure looked like a legit NHLer last year.  Those 2 may dictate our success.  Foligno and Hartman are capable players as long as they keep the focus on doing the little things the right way.  We need Spurgeon to be his old self and our D will be solid.  Will be even better when Zeev gets here in a year or so.

I would do just about anything to get Nojo, Freddy, Zuc and Gus off the books.  Nojo and Freddy because they are just bad.  Gus because we have a goalie in waiting and I want the Wall up.  Zuc because his contract is just too high for his contributions. 

[MNCountryLife]

4 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

How is this possible given all the dead weight is another year older.   Are you saying Trenin will make that much impact on the pk?   I’ll give you that one.  How else are we better?

A healthy Spurgeon will help a ton. Foligno was playing injured last year and that really damaged our shut down line.  I expect Rossi, Marat and Faber to be better this year ... and Rossi and Faber had good years last year.

The one thing that could really take this team down is if Nojo gets lots of ice time.  I really fell his play demoralizes the team chemistry.