Article: The Wild Should Gamble On Alexander Holtz's Upside

[Justin Wiggins]

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[Patrick]

I like the thinking but that is a HUGE overpay. 

[Citizen Strife]

I know there are sometimes instances of players improving from one team to another (Fiala), but how often do players who get the "change of scenery" thing actually panning out?  I wonder if Holtz is just that guy.

[Will D. Ness]

Most realistic proposal so far IMO.  Fills a need, doesn't empty the bank, young guy who has talent yet to be expressed, and if it doesn't work out... probably won't be a handcuff because his contract will be moveable (right BG?).

[Up North Guy]

I would not mind adding Holtz but Mids and Gus plus is way too much. I still say trading Gus this year is a big mistake. Relying on a 90 year old Flower and a rookie to be our net minders is very short sighted. Gus had a down year. It happens. It does not mean he has to be discarded immediately. 

[Mateo3xm]

Once again I don’t understand the trading Gus idea. It gives us a big hole in goaltending. I think Holtz will be good he just needs a little more time.

[Sam]

25 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

Relying on a 90 year old Flower and a rookie to be our net minders is very short sighted. 

Fleury is only 39.

[Citizen Strife]

Up North Guy is Duhaime's burner account, lol

[Tony Abbott]

Here's the thing nobody gets about someone like Jake Middleton: It's not like the Wild can just get a guy like that by trading someone they don't want and who isn't very good. 

Oh, wait.

[mnfaninnc]

Holtz-

RHS? Check

Can fire from Ovechkin's office? Check

Large enough not to get bumped around? Check

Inexpensive? Check

Teaming him up with Rossi for help? Check

I'm not enamored with the compensation, but sometimes you have to do what you have to do. If the plan is to move Middleton at the deadline, then why not now? I do like Middleton and do like Goose, but sometimes you need that special talent and have to find other replacements. Is there any chance of getting Bahl in that deal?

Now, how do we find another goalie? We need 3 who can play NHL minutes. I think we can find another defender, and if not we can certainly try Hunt there to start the year. I think if this is something NJ can do, then we go for it!

[mnfaninnc]

Quote

Why would Holtz be available then if the talent is clearly there? Why would the Devils look to move on from a top-10 pick just a few seasons after drafting him? It’s a numbers game in New Jersey. Holtz’s profile as a forward is similar to many of New Jersey’s other young forwards. Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, and Dawson Mercer are all young forwards who excel in the offensive zone. However, all but Hischier struggle mightily on defense.

This is something that scouts and draft gurus tend to fall into: Their version of the perfect player. All of a sudden, you've got too many guys that fit the same profile, and not enough other guys you need to be successful. 

Just look at our defensive prospects. They are somewhere between 5'11" and 6'2". They are lighter, in the 190-200 lb. range. They skate really well and are good puck movers. They tend to be labeled as 2-way defenders. But, you also need some big guys back there who can clear the net and kill penalties. Judd fell into the same net, and simply drafted the same kind of guy. 

I suppose that would be my biggest criticism of him at this point. He hasn't really ventured out and drafted different types of players. I still believe that Shooter pulled the trigger on the 1st 2 picks and then Judd had the rest of the board. The rest of the board all looked like Judd picks too. 

[punch_cut]

6 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

I know there are sometimes instances of players improving from one team to another (Fiala), but how often do players who get the "change of scenery" thing actually panning out?  I wonder if Holtz is just that guy.

William Karlsson with Vegas and Nino with MN are a couple that worked.

[TCMooch]

No way a player that can’t play defense  will ever get a fair shake in Minnesota

[MacGyver]

Good grief. Is there any jock strap wearing NHL'er we shouldn't gamble on, try to pry from another team or trade Rossi and stick bag to get? All this sounds so desperate. I thought everything we need was already in the pipeline or to be drafted this year and already penciled in on line combo's and will be challenging for a Cup in about two more seasons. 

Guerin may do something rash to put that carrot on a stick in front of Kaprizov. But in reality that may be his only choice at this point. As someone mentioned a change of scenery does not always work out for a player. Players don't remain static when put on another team. What you see in a player that is on the Hurricanes or Devil's may not produce the same attributes on a different team with different line mates, coaches and systems.  It's very much like prospects. You don't know until you know and it's always a gamble. I just feel the Wild need to be patient right now. If you need to trade Kaprizov and get the haul he would bring why not? It may be a faster path to being a contender than doing a one player deal now in hopes to keep Kaprizov here. 

Yes Kaprizov is great but he is not without his flaws. As Guerin said when he traded Talbot. If you don't want to be here just say so and I'll see that you get moved. I wonder if he holds to that if Kaprizov wants to move.  

 

[MrCheatachu]

21 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

Once again I don’t understand the trading Gus idea. It gives us a big hole in goaltending. I think Holtz will be good he just needs a little more time.

I think a lot of people were disappointed in his performance last year, and look at the hype around Wallstedt and question why we're paying GusBus $3.75M next year when we have a 'stud' waiting in the wings.  Last season GusBus put up a rather pedestrian 3.06 gaa and 0.899 SV% over 45 games, with some stretches where he really stunk.

Also:

• We signed Hlavaj to an ELC who upset a Hynes/Guerin team USA and posted damn good numbers in Worlds this year for Slovakia.
• We traded away CamBot (who went 2.5gaa, 0.913 sv% in 54 games last season fyi) in a hissy-fit when his wife tweeted some unkind words about BillyG
• The rest of the whole damn team has movement protection

Fundamentally, I think GusBus is targeted in these trade talks because fans arent emotionally attached to him, he underperformed his contract last season, and nobody views him as the long term solution here, he's a stop gap that may be valuable to another team in a different position.  We have a log-jam at G, and nobody's putting money on the GusBus horse at this point.

Edited May 20 by MrCheatachu

[WheelSnipeCelly]

Side note, yesterday was a big day for a couple Wild players at the World Championship:

• Matt Boldy: Had a hell of a game yesterday with 2G and 4A and now leads the entire tournament with 12 pts (5G, 7A)
• Marcus Johansson: Somehow leads the entire tournament in ± with +10 (and is tied for 6th in points with 9 pts, 4G, 5A), despite being the second worse on the Wild this season after Gaudreau.
• Marco Rossi: Had 3 assists in yesterdays game against Norway and leads team Austria in ± with +7, and tied for 1st with points on the team with 1G, 5A
• Mats Zuccarello: Had an assist in the game against Austria.
• Samuel Hlavaj: Leads the tournament in SV% with 93.94%, and has 3W, 1.93 GAA and 1 SO — looking like a great signing by Guerin to help Iowa out
• Filip Gustavsson: Ranked 2nd after Hlavaj in the tournament with 3W, 92.65 SV% and 1.67 GAA

All-in-all not too shabby. Now they just need to replicate this for the NHL playoffs!

[mnfaninnc]

18 hours ago, punch_cut said:

William Karlsson with Vegas and Nino with MN are a couple that worked.

I agree with William Karlsson, and would probably also throw in Chandler Stevenson. I don't see it with Nino, I think he stayed about the same. 

I think we can confirm that Nick Leddy sure benefited from it.

[Burnt Toast]

I like the idea of the Wild taking “a shot” at a younger and unproven player that’s not going to cost a lot. His strengths line up nicely with holes in the Wild’s roster. If NJ really is in win now mode this might be the perfect time to get max value out of trading Mids. I like the idea of moving on from Gus. Sure there’s risk involved but if he puts up another season like this last one he’ll become untradeable and  a $3.75M AAV anchor. No one can predict the future but looking down the road a couple of years this type of move looks intriguing. 

[Up North Guy]

23 hours ago, Sam said:

Fleury is only 39.

39 is the new 90

[Up North Guy]

21 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Up North Guy is Duhaime's burner account, lol

I feel so seen.....

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

I thought everything we need was already in the pipeline or to be drafted this year and already penciled in on line combo's and will be challenging for a Cup in about two more seasons. 

We've got everything we need to put ourselves into contention in the future years. However, when you look specifically at some holes, we do have some of those. 1 biggy is the lack of size on the backend (and trading out Midsy doesn't help that). Another is depth of goaltending within the organization where I believe we'll need Goose and The Wall hitting on all cylinders. 

In this particular case, we simply do not have anyone who can set up in Ovechkin's office on the PP. While it is a minute adjustment, PKs can slightly tilt and cheat to the right side of our PP because we are so left handed shooter dominant. This cuts down on the small little openings our shooters have simply because they do not have to honor the back door.

Hartman flubs/shanks too many, Freddie doesn't have the shot, Dumba used to but doesn't have it anymore and he's gone, Spurgeon was useful in that role, but he snuck down a little lower. We have also drafted a lot of talented guys who are lefties. Haight is not, he's a righty. I'd suggest a big shot that is right handed coming from the left side is a necessary improvement, and having 2 of those would help a lot, like a Perron plus another. 

This puts us in a better spot to be contenders, not just competitors. And, we've got to use what we've got to obtain what we don't have. Judd and Guerin built the team from the back to the front. I would expect that this is how people will start arriving.

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, MrCheatachu said:

We have a log-jam at G, and nobody's putting money on the GusBus horse at this point.

I just don't see the organizational log jam. We're going to need all 3 goalies next season. Both Goose and The Wall got hurt, and I'm not sold that Fleury won't either. Hopefully it's not all together at the same time. The Czechian goalie you mentioned has 0 time in the A. I wouldn't be comfortable with him as my 3rd choice, would you?

Going forward, I think it's perfectly legitimate to have a battery of The Wall and Goose manning our net for about $5m for a brief time. Honestly, I don't see Goose having the stamina to go much more than a 1A in goal. When given more time last season, he kind of didn't pass the test. We all know he has struggled with working out. Those things do matter. 

[FredJohnson]

On 5/19/2024 at 9:20 AM, Citizen Strife said:

I know there are sometimes instances of players improving from one team to another (Fiala), but how often do players who get the "change of scenery" thing actually panning out?  I wonder if Holtz is just that guy.

Seems to me it'd be more likely of a case where a player was blocked by better (or veteran) talent on his old team and gets aligned with the right role on his new team.

[FredJohnson]

11 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

a battery of The Wall and Goose

You mean Gus?

Goligoski is (probably) retiring.

[FredJohnson]

Another week, another trade target. That’s what you get when your favorite team doesn’t qualify for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs – months and months of speculation.